9 Previews
1 Account Bet





Account bet


Kelso 1.43 

SIRWILLIAMWALLACE 5/1 +

Each Way

1-2-3



If there is a non runner

We only get 1-2 places

Hoping all 8 will still run









Today's Message 
 
The final day of the flat season 
Will now cover more all weather
Both sand and jumps every day

 




Kelso 

3 previews

All 3 horses selected there
Trained by Sandy Thomson
I believe he targets today
If I'm wrong were in trouble
Should be on fancied tryers
He has other runners today
But going with these three


Covering these big

races

November handicap 
Grand Sefton chase
Badger Ales chase 


Underneath the message below
Elaborates a bit on all 9 previews
All my personal bets are included
These are my main bet options


 
Account Bet Options



Kelso 1.08
£7.00 Win Bet FANTASTIC ROCK 9/2
£3.00 Win Bet NETYWELL 2/1

Aintree 1.36
£8.00 Win Bet DOCTOR KEN 3/1
£2.00 Win Bet HOMETOWN HERO 9/2

Kelso 1.43 
SIRWILLIAMWALLACE 6/1
Each Way

Aintree 2.11
£4.00 Each Way SPIRITOFTHEGAMES 7/1 
£2.00 Win Bet AL DANCER 5/1




Narrowed it down

To a choice of two bets

SIRWILLIAMWALLACE 6/1
  
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES 7/1


One annoying consideration
Sirwilliamwallace whilst 6/1
But only 5/1 with most firms
And a non runner would hurt


SPIRITOFTHEGAMES

Mention two weeks ago
When suggested tenner 25/1
Has also come down in price
This does leave a bitter taste
But as I said two weeks ago
Feel this has been his target
And if he stays I'm confident

Made the decision

SIRWILLIAMWALLACE is the bet

But either one could be the staked






Preview Selections 

Kelso 12.33 
Salvino 9/4
Win Bet

Down Royal 12.53
Cougar 10/11-1/1 
Win Bet

Kelso 1.08
£7.00 Win Bet Fantastic Rock 9/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Netywell 2/1
 
Doncaster 1.30
Something Enticing 7/1-8/1 
Each Way  
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Aintree 1.36
£8.00 Win Bet Doctor Ken  3/1
£2.00 Win Bet Hometown Hero 9/2

Kelso 1.43 
Sirwilliamwallace 6/1 
Each Way
  
Wincanton 1.50
Lord Accord 5/1
Each Way

Aintree 2.11
£4.00 Each Way Spiritofthegames 7/1
£2.00 Win Bet  Al Dancer 5/1

Doncaster 3.13 
£4.00 Each Way Mr Alan 12/1 
£1.00 Win Bet First Officer 10/1-12/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Metier 8/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5





6 Personal Bets

Kelso 1.08
£20 Fantastic Rock 9/2 
£10 Win Bet Netywell 2/1

Aintree 1.36
Doctor Ken 11/4 -3/1
£12 Win 
 
Kelso 1.43 
Sirwilliamwallace 6/1  
£20 Each Way if all 8 run
£30 Win Bet if 7 or fewer run
 
Wincanton 1.50
Lord Accord 5/1
£15 Win Bet

Aintree 2.11
Win - Spiritofthegames 7/1
Saver- Al Dancer 5/1

Already backed Spiritofthegames
Mentioned him recently at 25/1
I have only managed a 16/1 bet
But feel no need to bet him now
If I had not already backed him
I'd be looking around a £60 win
 
Doncaster 3.13 
Mr Alan 12/1
£12 Win Bet 





Underneath The Message


Kelso 12.33 
Salvino 9/4
Win Bet

Badly framed novice
I could force a saver bet
Could also go each way
But only 1-2 places here
Should go well but at 5/2
Not sure it's great value
Not betting this one myself
If I did it would be £10 e/w
 


Down Royal 12.53
Cougar 10/11-1/1 
Win Bet

Joseph O'Brien short price
No interest in this myself


Kelso 1.08
£20 Fantastic Rock 9/2 
£10 Win Bet Netywell 2/1

Neither of these horses
Can be judged accurately
My instinct likes them both
But you just can not know
They may be better class

 
 
Doncaster 1.30
Something Enticing 7/1-8/1 
Each Way  
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Feels like too many runners
If I want to bet 7/1 each way
There are previews today
At similar prices in easier races
Not going to bet this selection
If I did minimum stakes win bet


Aintree 1.36
£8.00 Win Bet Doctor Ken 3/1
£2.00 Win Bet Hometown Hero 9/2

Favourite fails a generic stat
But there are only 5 runners
So much harder to believe in it
One bad jump and its curtains
Love the race but a bit guessy


Kelso 1.43 
Sirwilliamwallace 6/1 
Each Way

8 runners at the moment
Can not afford a non runner
Lots we do not know in this
But backed him in this in 2021
Recovery job and worth a bet


Wincanton 1.50
Lord Accord 5/1
Each Way

My angles detest Frodon here
Staking is annoying me most
Lord Accord each way at 5/1
Just have too many positives
Worried about his previous run
Taking the edge off him today
Could have gone for a win bet 
And saved on Enrilo at 4/1 too
But went for the each way bet


Aintree 2.11
£4.00 Each Way Spiritofthegames 7/1
£2.00 Win Bet  Al Dancer 5/1

Covered my thoughts earlier




Doncaster 3.13 
£4.00 Each Way Mr Alan 12/1 
£1.00 Win Bet First Officer 10/1-12/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Metier 8/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5

The difficulty with this bet
Is knowing how difficult it is
May be a bit too ambitious
To stake as an account bet 
But happy with a small win






PROFILES & PREVIEWS 





Kelso 12.33

13/8 Gaillimh A Stor, 7/2 Ballyporeen
4/1 Salvino 11/2 No But I Will, 7/1 Reve De Niamh
12/1 Community Rebel, 33/1 Something Golden.

Novice Hurdle 2m 6f

SALVINO has experience
Recently 2nd in a handicap
Thats a fair enough standard
And comes from a stable
Who will be trying to win this

Plenty of alternatives here
Lighter raced and unexposed
But all with plenty to prove

BALLYPOREEN is a 5yo
He's had just 1 hurdle start

REVE DE NIAMH has just 1

NO BUT I WILL has none

COMMUNITY REBEL none

GAILLIMH A STAR a 6yo
Had 2 hurdle races last year
Ran his profile it feels dodgy

November
Novice Hurdles
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from a hurdle
Under 4 career starts
Absent more than 7 weeks

Horses with this profile

Running over 2m 6f + are 0-43
Running over 2m 5f + are 1-96

GAILLIMH A STAR fails this

Not sure I would trust those angles
On figures he has achieved most
And he could easily take this race
My angles have their doubts
Read he has been schooling
With a chase career coming soon

SALVINO will be here to win
Shame there are just 7 runners
Could still bet him each way
Could easily have a saver too
But that would be on favourite

Selection

SALVINO 11/4

Win Bet









Down Royal 12.53

11/10 Cougar, 11/8 Old Victoria, 7/1 New Year Honours
12/1 Snapius, 16/1 Poets Cottage, 33/1 Uberrima Fides
100/1 Power To Love, 200/1 Mornington Bay

3yo Hurdle

COUGAR

Won on his debut
Overcame some decent angles
Unraced hurdlers in that race
Had a 0-61 record until he won
He did that in a big field as well
He was smart on the flat as well

You know I hate betting
Horses from Joseph O'Brien
Especially at short prices

But he must be the percentage bet

His two market dangers
Both come from Gordon Elliott
Although his record in this is great
None of these were with females

OLD VICTORIA is a filly
Just 2 runs and 7 weeks off
She is said to be very smart
So no surprise if she wins it
But fillies with breaks struggle

NEW YEARS HONOUR a filly
She has 133 days absence

Staying with Joseph's horse

Selection

COUGAR 10/11-1/1

Win Bet






Kelso 1.08

2/1 Netywell, 11/4 Edmond Dantes
4/1 Fantastic Rock, 5/1 Wheelbahri
6/1 Here We Have It.

Handicap Chase 2m 1f

Strange race

Two of these five horses
Have their chase debuts
Straight into a handicap

NETWELL a 5yo does this
Said to be a big strong type

FANTASTIC ROCK does too
He is interesting 542 days off
On a day his stable do well here
Significant he is even running 
Also said to be a strong type

The chase debutants above
Are 1st and 2nd in the weights
Profiles are fine not worried
This is about jumping potential

Could pivot to experience
Those who have been chasing
Can not rule any of those out

But going with the debutants
NETYWELL could be a saver
No surprise if he wins at all
 
FANTASTIC ROCK first choice
Might have been laid out for it

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet FANTASTIC ROCK 9/2

£3.00 Win Bet NETYWELL 2/1






Doncaster 1.30

7/2 Life Of Dreams, 4/1 Sweet Believer, 5/1 Moon De Vega
13/2 Something Enticing, 7/1 Misty Dancer, 12/1 Darmoiselle
14/1 Mellow Yellow, 16/1 Eidikos, 16/1 Star Fortress
20/1 Pink Carnation, Precisely, 25/1 Queen Of The Skies
40/1 Zarabanda, 50/1 Jasmine Joy, Wynter Wildes
66/1 Smiling Jayne, White Willow, 100/1 Celtic Empress.

Gillies Fillies' Stakes

Listed race 10f

Open looking so short preview

Go back to 2014
Doncaster 10f races
Horses drawn 15 or higher
Have a poor 1-64 record
  
MISTY DANCER is drawn 18 of 18

MELLOW YELLOW has a poor draw

SWEET BELIEVER is the top rated
May win but horses from 8f or less
Have not had the best of records

They are 1-40 since the race began
Horses aged 4 or more doing it 0-13 

DARMOISELLE unsafe from 1m 5f

MOON DE VEGA might win
But she is a filly absent 134 days 
And this is heavy ground after all

LIFE OF DREAMS has 95 days off
Not a negative but questions asked
Longest absent winner was 79 days

Open race

Going with last years runner up

Selection

SOMETHING ENTICING 7/1-8/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Aintree 1.36

2/1 Ree Okka, 7/2 Monbeg Genius
4/1 Bowtogreatness, Doctor Ken
11/2 Hometown Hero.

Novice Handicap Chase 2m 4f
 
None of these horses

Have jumped a fence before

They are all chase debutants 

Going to base my selection
On this long standing statistic

Go back to 1997
Aintree
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any Class
Any time of year

Unraced chasers
Who have 11st 5lbs or more
Have a winless 0-27 record 

So none have won any
Having chasing debuts
Carrying over 11st 4lbs

REE OKKA fails this 11st 8lbs

BOWTOGREATNESS does too 
  
MONBEG GENIUS a 6yo
Almost fails that with 11st 4lbs

Go back to 1997
Aintree
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any Class
Any time of year
Unraced chasers
Aged under 9 years old
Under 5 career starts
Have a poor 1-65 record
The only winner was in 2019
When winning this race

MONBEG GENIUS fails this
REE OKKA also fails this

Obviously a small field

Must weaken these angles

But they lead me to this shortlist

DOCTOR KEN

HOMETOWN HERO

Stamina may be an issue
HOMETOWN HERO is unproven
He is the one I worry about most

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet DOCTOR KEN 3/1

£2.00 Win Bet HOMETOWN HERO 9/2







Kelso 1.43

3/1 Breaking The Ice, 7/2 Broadway Joe
4/1 Dalyotin 5/1 Fete Champetre, 6/1 Avoid De Master
10/1 Sirwilliamwallace, 12/1 Up Helly Aa King
20/1 Exit To Where.

Handicap Chase 2m 5f

SIRWILLIAMWALLACE

Sandy Thomson runner 
Could well be significant

He was favourite in this last year
Ran well but finished only in 3rd
Connections are trying again

Can not rule many out

But against the two topweights

UP KELLY AA KING is unsafe
Topweight aged 11 with a break
Fails breeding statistics as well

DALYOTIN might need this
Stables runners invariably do
Any horse her trainer has run
That had more than 18 races
None won absent over178 days
  
If we get this pair beaten
 
SIRWILLIAMWALLACE rated 119
Then becomes de-facto topweight

Not able to rule others out

Because of the stable

Going to give him the chance

EXIT TO WHERE is a danger
He also ran in last years race
If a non runner left 7 or fewer
He would have been a saver

But staying with the trainer
That I hope can deliver here

Selection

SIRWILLIAMWALLACE 6/1

Each Way







Wincanton 1.50
 
11/4 Frodon, 5/1 Enrilo, 5/1 Lord Accord
7/1 Cap Du Nord, 10/1 Irish Prophecy, 10/1 Potterman
14/1 Red Happy, 18/1 Rocco, 20/1 El Presente
20/1 Neville's Cross, 25/1 Golden Taipan

Badger Beer Handicap Chase
 
Graded Handicap Chase 3m 1f

Down to 11 runner

Quite an insipid renewal

FRODON is the class horse

Statistics say no

Common sense says why not
When the field is so manageable

This is an interesting angle

Go back 22 years

Handicap Chases
Run over 3m and more
Listed and Graded Class
With over 5 runners

Horses aged 10 or more
Rated 156 or higher
Have a 0-139 record 
FRODON fails this 0-139 stat
 
FRODON is now a 10 year old
None have won this since 2000
 
Horses rated 145 of more
Have a 0-27 record since 2004 
The following horses fail this
FRODON 
POTTERMAN
 
Horses with 11st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-18 record in recent years  
FRODON also fails this statistic

Horses aged 9 or more
First time out that season
Have won 3 past renewals
They all had 11st 2lbs or less
Those with more were 0-19  
FRODON also fails this stat
POTTERMAN does as well
   
Following some other angles
 
Horses with 26 + career runs 
Have a 0-55 record since 1997
The following all fail this angle

FRODON 
POTTERMAN 
IRISH PROPHECY
CAP DU NORD
GOLDEN TAIPAN

NEVILLES CROSS is rejected
Pulling up in a recent race
EL PRESENTE did the same

ROCCO has a small chance
RED HAPPY exposed up in class

Shortlisting two

ENRILO

LORD ACCORD


LORD ACCORD each way
Does look very tempting 5/1
But Cheltenham 2 weeks ago
Does need to be overcome
Hope it does not come too soon
  
The other option

LORD ACCORD win bet
ENRILO saver bet at 4/1

Selection

LORD ACCORD 5/1

Each Way








Aintree 2.11

4/1 Broken Halo, 11/2 Two For Gold, 13/2 Jacamar
15/2 Lifetime Ambition, 8/1 Al Dancer, Senior Citizen
8/1 Gesskille, 8/1 Spiritofthegames 14/1 One True King
25/1 Jack Hackett, Percussion 33/1 The Golden Rebel
66/1 Al Roc 200/1 Abaya Du Mathan

Grand Sefton 
 
Handicap Chase 2m 5f

Ages of recent winners

8 9 8 9 11 6 
9 9 8 10 9 8 
9 8 8 8 11 10

Horses aged 7
Have a poor 0-54 record

Only one managed second
We wait for a 7yo winner

In the previous 4 renewals
No 7yo's finished 1-2-3-4-5

This season horses aged 7 
Make up 6 of the 15 runners
So there chance is increased
 
BROKEN HALO is a 7yo
He only has 8 lifetime runs 
 
Go back to the 1998 renewal 
Horses with under 17 races
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-31 record since then
BROKEN HALO fails this stat

Horses with under 15 runs
Have not won this race before

BROKEN HALO only has 8 runs
COOPERS CROSS only has 10

COOPERS CROSS is a 7yo
He has had just 6 chase runs
Horses with under 8 chase runs
Record a 0-45 record since 2006
COOPERS CROSS 46th to try
 
Horses with under 8 chase runs
Record a 0-45 record since 2006
Both horses also fail this statistic

Horses with under 15 runs
Have not won this race before
THE GOLDEN REBEL has 12
Never been in this class before
 
LIFETIME AMBITION is a 7yo
He has 11st 6lbs first time out

Seasonal debuts
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-23 record in this

LIFETIME AMBITION fails this
TWO FOR GOLD also fails it
Has 12st on seasonal debut
Which is a career high mark
Rated 5lbs higher than anytime

Only 1 of the last 18 winners
Were rated 144 or higher

TWO FOR GOLD is rated 159
LIFETIME AMBITION rated 151

PERCUSSION out as a 7yo

ONE TRUE KING also a 7yo
Has a career high mark today

Past winners since 2009
Had the following lifetime runs

21 54 15 26 27 
21 34 24 16 20 
26 19 24

Horses with over 34 career runs
Have a 1-43 record in this race

ABAYA DU MATHAN  
JACK HACKATT
AL ROC
 
SENIOR CITIZEN is a 9yo
He has history in this race
Predictably failed as a 7y0
Was a good second aged 8
Carries less weight this year
But he lacks any prep races
He had these in recent years
He also fails this sire statistic
Horses sired by Tobougg
Runners over 2m 5f +
In Class 2 and higher
Ground softer than good
You find a 1-32 record
That winner had 6 days off
Those absent longer 0-31

GESSKILLE is a 6yo
Thats a concern off 140 days 
If you look at his sire record

Horses sired by network
Running over 2m 5f or more
Class 4 and higher
Absent more than 81 days
Have a 0-54 record so far
GESSKILLE fails this angle

JACAMAR could go well
But he is only a 7 year old
Beaten 37 lengths last time

SPIRITOFTHEGAMES a 10yo
May be laid out for this race
Proven track form on his side 
Well treated overdue a win
He has had a good prep race
Ran with no head gear them
Cheekpieces are now back on
Not the safest on sire statistics
But passes with a recent run

AL DANCER is a 9yo 
Would win this on old form
Bit to prove now after a break
But well treated these days
And only has12 chase runs 
Going to make him the saver
  

SPIRITOFTHEGAMES

Flagged him up 2 weeks ago

Suggested a tenner at 25/1

Biggest concern is stamina

Right on edge of his limits

Based breeding statistics

But you can still place here
And be beaten a long way
And expecting better than that

Selection

£4.00 Each Way SPIRITOFTHEGAMES 7/1

£2.00 Win Bet AL DANCER 5/1






Doncaster 3.13

5/2 Israr, 7/1 Nathanael Greene, 8/1 Metier
9/1 Tritonic, 12/1 Cemhaan, Teed Up, 14/1 Dark Jedi
14/1 First Officer, 14/1 Mr Alan, 16/1 Farhan
16/1 Furzig, 16/1  Prydwen, 20/1 On To Victory
20/1 Sir Rumi, 25/1 Alright Sunshine, 25/1 Deja
25/1 Emiyn, Faylaq, 33/1 Mr Curiosity, 40/1 Wilkie
50/1 Lunar Jet, Ring Of Beara.

November Handicap 12f

Statistics sent midweek

I applied those angles

Without fear of favour just to see
What horses they shortlisted here
My interpretation with some leniency 
Shortlisted the following 4 horses 

FIRST OFFICED 14/1

PRYDWEN 16/1

FARHAN 16/1

MR ALAN 14/1

They all passed my draw statistics
Low draws have a miserable record
That does not help us too much

ISRAR is favourite
He is a 3yo draw 21
Go back to 2002 and 1998
Similar high drawn 3yo's won
Can live with that radical draw
The main angles he failed here
He has ran once in 119 days
 
Horses with 1 run in 3 months
Have a 0-78 record in this race
ISRAR fails this 0-78 statistic

That goes back a lot of years
ISRAR could be underraced
TRITONIC fails the same stat
Having raced once in 89 days

TEED UP has the same problem
CEMHAAM has and 71 days off

NATHANIAL GREEN a 3yo
Has raced just once in 126 days
On heavy ground that could hurt 

Opposed all the older horses
METIER as a 6yo first time out
And all the 7 year olds and older
  
Shortlist
 
FIRST OFFICER 14/1
PRYDWEN 16/1
FARHAN 16/1
MR ALAN 14/1

PRYDWEN is a 4yo
Won last time out 42 days ago

Horses aged 4
Winning last time
More than 6 career runs
Absent over 4 days
Have a 0-59 record since 1997
PRYDWEN fails this statistic
  
FARHAN won this last season
Drawn 22 of 22 can not rule out

But like the improving 3 year olds
Who come here fit and in form
With Momentum like this pair

METIER gets promoted
Looks very well treated here
Whilst not statistically correct
He has unusual positives too
And brings some symmetry
To the following staking plan


Selection

£4.00 Each Way MR ALAN 12/1

£1.00 Win Bet FIRST OFFICER 10/1-12/1

£1.00 Win Bet METIER 8/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

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