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Aintree 4.05

JETT 11/4-5/2

Win Bet 

 
Preview Selections

Ffos Las 1.35
Jersey Lady 6/1-13/2
Each Way

Aintree 1.45
£7.50 Win Bet War Lord 11/4-3/1
£2.50 Win Bet Pic D'Orhy 7/2-3/1

Aintree 2.20
Pied Piper 1/1-11/10
Win Bet

Aintree 3.30
Epatante 7/4-15/8
Win Bet

Aintree 4.05
Jett 11/4-5/2
Win Bet

Aintree 4.40
£6.00 Win Bet Frero Banbou 6/1-7/1
£4.00 Place Bet King D'argent 6/4 (1-2-3-4-5)
  



Today's Message


The Beatles did their thing
I was born too late for them
More of a Wings man myself

Will be on youtube later on
Playing some Wing's songs
Hoping I will be singing Jett
Rather than With a little luck

 
Aintree 4.05

JETT 5/2 -11/4

Win Bet

Watch last years Grand National
And you may well agree with me
Why this race looks so winnable


Aintree 4.40

£6.00 Win Bet Frero Banbou 6/1-7/1
£4.00 Place Bet King D'argent 6/4 (1-2-3-4-5)

Done the Red Rum Handicap 
Like the win and place strategy
Neither suitable or strong enough
For staking this on the account


The rest of Aintree

Just message filling fast food
Not interested in these races
Covered a few as it's a festival
But don't have a strong view

JETT is the only possible bet   
Decided not to stake this bet
Not much 11/4 left and no 3/1 
Several of you already on him
Most that are on each way 3/1
So this does feel unnecessary


Message Choice


Aintree 4.05

JETT 11/4-5/2

Win Bet







Underneath The Message 

Rumours of the service demise 
Now starting to look exaggerated
Was just a special day yesterday
Whilst I do fight inevitable decline
Neil Mechie is clearly on the rise

How much did I have on him ?

Well It was a bitter sweet result 

Had £133 in my Bet365 account

I placed only £13 win only at 50/1
I am a today sucker for symmetry 
If I had £139 I'd have had £19 on

Was going to have more on later
Did not want to affect the market
Mid morning working normally
I have a left and right computer
Right computer on Betfair Page
Rushing about not concentrating
I thought I saw 42.00 each way
So I had another £13 each way
But what I realised 5 mins later
I was looking at a different race
I ended up betting the wrong one
Global Tycoon who ran later on
Started with the same letter "G"
In the same place in the market
Wasted £26 betting a no hoper
Tried to lay him at 42 in running
But there were no takers for it
Don't want to work out the cost
Of doing that yesterday its scary
But end of the day I backed him
And several of you won nicely
Put it down to a senior moment

Member left the service recently
Said he had felt it disappointing
At the time did feel charmless 
He got the message yesterday
Backed the winner Emailed me
That felt courageous and classy
You learn never to judge anyone
Good luck to him in the future
He will join the many thousands
Who don't like how we do things
 
This column still in development
Wanted it to be behind the scenes
Things that influence messages
How my betting goes off message
Try and explain some restrictions
How outside influences disrupt
How they also help with selections
Have not quite got this right yet

Twitter is one of those influences
Most members are not interested
But those that are are very keen
I planned to do this Twitter piece
But 2 messages ago I overslept
Didn't have time to get this done
But planning to cover it Sunday
And send this out early next week

As for today

JETT is my only bet

Feeling a bit stale right now
Using tomorrow's message
To freshen up and get right
So won't be a blockbuster
Then weekend staked bets

My JETT bet is on ante post

I'm adding some novelty bets
When I fancy a horse strongly
But don't put it on the account
I like to add some extra stakes

If the horse wins
I do not get an account winner
So I like to compensate elsewhere

If the horses loses
I lose more of my own money
But the account does not suffer
And that is the biggest priority
So this is what I am doing myself

Combing JETT

With a few National horses
 
Foxhunters - Jett 5/2-11/4
Grand National -  Delta Work 9/1
£30 Win Double 


Foxhunters - Jett 5/2-11/4
X
Grand National - Snow Leopardess 8/1 +
Grand National - Fiddlerontheroof 16/1 
Grand National - Run Wild Fred 25/1
Grand National -  Any Second Now 10/1 +
4 x £5 Win Doubles

Don't fancy these national horses
But if Jett does win the Foxhunters
I have some nice saver bets banked
To return most of my overall stakes
From my main 3 horses on shortlist
So happy to write off this £20 bet





Yesterday's Summary   
 
Turned out surprisingly nicely
Lots of luck in these wild picks
Not so much with horse or race
But finding enough time to look
It's why we have several cards
Bookmakers want us stretched
So nobody has time to cover it
Anyway created a bit of pleasure
The rest of it was as I had feared
Elzaal just felt instinctively wrong
Couldn't put my finger on why
Chookie Dunedin placed e/way
I'd have gladly taken the place
If offered before the race started
Newfoundland an unraced loser
Just bad lay judgement with him
Many say Aidan is in decline now
Sweet November missed the break
That selection had many positives
But one clear flaw was his starting
He has missed the break too much
Just did not appreciate it enough
That said nothing should detract
From what was a magical best bet

 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
 



Ffos Las 1.35

3/1 Howdilyoudo, 4/1 Kilganer Queen
6/1 Doyen La Lutte, 7/1 My Silver Lining, 8/1 Chantilly Haze
8/1 Jersey Lady, 10/1 Subway Surf, 14/1 Flowing Cadenza
14/1 Saddlers Quest, 25/1 Quilaura.

Mares Handicap Hurdle

On a statistical level
This is about areas of weakness

Such as horses with long breaks
HOWDILYOUDO has 189 days off
Plenty of weight not the best of ages

Mares Handicap Hurdles
Run in April over 2m 5f +
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent over 37 days
Have a 0-35 record so far

Not a significant angle though
More an area of danger or weakness
HOWDILYOUDO is rejected
SUBWAY SURF also fails this angle

Horses from 2m races
Stepping up over half a mile
Is another danger area to avoid
MY SILVER LINING does this
SUBWAY SURF also fails this
 
KILGANER QUEEN is a 12yo
Annoyingly she has positives

Mares handicap hurdles
Run since 2017
Any class
Any distance
Any time of year
No Mares that age won
Only 13 tried but none won
She may win but not for me
KILGANER QUEEN is rejected

Prefer one of these

FLOWING CADENZA
CHANTILLY HAZE
JERSEY LADY
DOYEN LA LUTTE

CHANTILLY HAZE tempting
But lack of class obvious worry
Close call between all the four

Selection

JERSEY LADY 6/1-13/2

Each Way






Aintree 1.45

9/4 Pic D'Orhy, 11/4 War Lord
9/2 Erne River 9/2 Gin On Lime, 11/2 Millers Bank
20/1 The Widdow Maker, 33/1 Jacamar.
 
Manifesto Novice Chase

Grade 1 Novice 2m 4f

10 of the 12 past winners
Ran at Cheltenhams festival
Surprisingly just 1 horse
Comes here from Cheltenham

WAR LORD

He was 4th in the Arkle chase 
5 winners came from that race
Finishing 3rd 4th 5th 8th UR
That gets him on the shortlist
 
Ideally you want 3-7 chase runs
ERNE RIVER only has 2 chases
Horses with under 3 chase runs
Have a 0-8 record in past years

He comes here on a winning run
But last time out winners are 0-17
That and his lack of chase form
Put me off not like any past winner
THE WIDDOW MAKER is rejected
Having also had just 2 chase runs

GIN ON LIME also won last time
She is a mare with 146 days off
Not really a safe enough profile
PIC C'ORHY won at Kempton
Like many here hard to rule out
It's not really my kind of race
Nothing winning would shock
  
WAR LORD the profile I like best
But don't want to rely on trainer
So going to split stake the race

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet WAR LORD 11/4-3/1

£2.50 Win Bet PIC DORHY 7/2-3/1







Aintree 2.20

10/11 Pied Piper, 2/1 Brazil, 8/1 Petit Tonnerre
16/1 Knight Salute, 25/1 Fautinette, In The Air
25/1 Inca Prince, Too Friendly
33/1 Impulsive One.
  
Anniversary Hurdle

Grade 1 4yo Hurdle (2m 1f)

Never been a great stats race
 
PIED PIPER 3rd in the triumph
Sets the standard on that run

BRAZIL won the Fred Winter

All 11 horses that won that race
Have come here and got beaten
Many of them by Triumph horses
He was only a 10/1 chance there
And had lost in 3 maiden hurdles

Don't feel much love for the race
I think the favourite should win it
PETIT TONNERRE around 10/1
Could be a little Jonjo saver bet 
Your call but I am not doing that

Selection

PIPE PIPER 1/1-11/10

Win Bet







Aintree 3.30

15/8 Epatante, Zanahiyr, 11/2 Brewin'upastorm
9/1 Monmiral, 10/1 Glory And Fortune, 14/1 McFabulous
25/1 Guard Your Dreams

Aintree Hurdle

Tight competitive race

EPATANTE 2nd in the Champion hurdle

ZANAHIR finished just behind her in 3rd

6 of the last 7 winners
8 of the last 10 winners
All came from that race

ZANAHIR is a 5 year old
Not the strongest of ages
They are 2-38 in this race
Both winners had 11 + runs
MONMIRAL only has 7 runs

ZANAHIR could take this
But older horses do better

BREWINUPASTORM is a 9yo
Only 2 his age have won this
Both came from Cheltenham
Both ran with the last 23 days
BREWINUPASTORM does not
And horses aged 9 or more
Coming from 2m 6f or shorter
Have a 0-29 record in this race

EPATANTE looks the profile bet
Not convinced but going with her
On the grounds her main rivals
Have more doubts about them

Selection

EPATANTE 7/4-15/8

Win Bet







Aintree 4.05

4/1 Jett, 5/1 Cat Tiger, 5/1 Latenightpass
13/2 Porlock Bay, 8/1 Cousin Pascal, 16/1 Marracudja, 
20/1 Dashing Perk, 20/1 Le Breuil, 20/1 Pont Aven
25/1 Drumconnor Lad, Myth Buster, Stand Up And Fight
33/1 Another Venture, Complete Sizing, Reikers Island
40/1 Clondaw Westie, 50/1 Activial, Michael's Pick
50/1 The Dellercheckout, 66/1 Demain Des L'aube
66/1  Down The Highway, 66/1 Golden Tobouggan
100/1 Ferocious.
 
Foxhunters 2m 5f

Always lots of deadwood in this

JETT was discussed yesterday

Bet him at 3/1 each way 7 places

He is top rated off 145 
5lbs higher than the rest
Laid out for the one race 
Mind you half the field are

The next highest rated 
CAT TIGER is rated 140
But he is only 8 years old
 
Go back 26 years to 1995 

Horses aged 7 are 0-21

Horses aged 8 are 0-44

CAT TIGER rejected aged 8
As all 44 his age have failed

Since 1997
We have had 9 winners
From Cheltenham's Foxhunter

All 9 winners doing that
Ran within 16 lengths of the winner
Horses beaten further at Cheltenham
Have a 0-32 record in the last 20 years

PONT AVEN was beaten 66 lengths
COUSIN PASCAL pulled up in that
He won this race last season at 66/1 
Think a repeat of that is now unlikely
DASHING PERK may be underraced
LE BRUEIL is not the biggest horse 

PORLOCK BAY might win
Clear 3rd favourite around 8/1
Would not out you off each way
But I think there are two others
Who offer as least as much here
Who have track form unlike him

Shortlist

LATENIGHTPASS a 9yo
Managed to finish 2nd last year
As he was only an 8yo in 2021
That can be seen as a positive
He's been pointing this season
But should be a player in this

JETT has the class to take this

Expecting to be out in front

Best horse run them ragged

Last year
In the Grand National
He led jumping beautifully
Bearing in mind he was 80/1
He was 5 lengths clear 3 out

If you want my main reason
Just watch last years National
Nothing in this race can match
Anything close to what he did


I got 3/1 (e/w) with 7 places 
Was expecting bigger today 
But he is 11/4 with 5-6 places
So not betting him each way 


Selection

JETT  5/2-11/4

Win Bet 







Aintree 4.40

6/1 Frero Banbou, 7/1 Before Midnight, Gunsight Ridge
7/1 King D'argent, 8/1 Bold Enough, 10/1 Gaelik Coast
12/1 Dolos, The Last Day, Thyme White, 16/1 Bun Doran
16/1 Shakem Up'Arry, Sky Pirate, 20/1 Elixir De Nutz
20/1 Zarkareva, Dancing On My Own, Espion Du Chenet
33/1 Fugitif.

Red Rum Handicap Chase

SKY PIRATE the topweight 
Has a tough task rated 153

Horses rated 150 or more
Have a 0-23 record in this

Go back to 1999
Horses rated 144 or more
Have a very poor 1-69 record
SKY PIRATE fails this statistic

 
Generic Statistic

Aintree Festival
Handicap Chases
Since 1997
Horses aged 5-6-7 
Over 7 Chase runs
Absent over 26 days
Have a 0-91 record

KING D'ARGENT fails this statistic
ZARKAREVA fails this generic too
 
Go back to the 1989 race
Horses aged 10 or more
Won just one past renewal 
They are just 1-54 since 1997

BUN DORAN is 11 years old
Exposed and not safe enough

THE LAST DAY is 10 years old
With just 1 run in 14 months
He looks underraced to me  

Aintree
Handicap Chases
Non Novices since 2014 
Horses with under 10 Chases 
Absent over 42 days
Produce a 0-55 record 

THE LAST DAY fails this angle
SHAKEM UP'ARRY fails it too
GUNSIGHT RIDGE also does

Important that angle holds
SHAKEM UP'ARRY fails it
But only by a small margin
He has 46 days absence here
Wont be surprised if he wins
But not my favourite trainer
 
 
Past winners chase runs
7 4 14 5 6 18 9 35 4 4 12 7
13 21 8 8 5 9 3 9 6 21 11 6

Most winners were lightly raced
Only 1 past winner had over 21  

ESPION DU CHENET has had 23
DOLOS has had 24 chase races
Never won in a field of 11 or more
BUN DORAN is also exposed

Go back to the 2006 renewal
Horses with 11st 2lbs or more
Have a 1-68 record since then
DOLOS also fails this angle too
 
Horses beaten over 28 lengths
Have a 0-58 record since 1997
SKY PIRATE is already rejected
He fails this after a 44 length loss
ZARKAREVA also fails this angle
DANCING ON MY OWN also does
 
BOLD ENOUGH is a 7 year old
He has to carry 11st 2lbs here
If he had just 1lbs more weight
He would have failed a generic

Aintree festival handicap chases 
Horses aged 7
Over 4 chase runs
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-57 record
He survives that by just 1 pound
Rated 143 may just be too much
Only 2 of the previous 18 winners 
Won with a rating as high as him
BOLD ENOUGH looks underraced
With just 1 run in 176 days as well

BEYOND MIDNIGHT is rated 148 

Go back to 1999
Horses rated 144 or more
Have a very poor 1-69 record
BEYOND MIDNIGHT fails this  
 
Go back to the 2006 renewal
Horses with 11st 2lbs or more
Have a 1-68 record since then
BEYOND MIDNIGHT fails this   

ELIXIR DE NUTZ ran 22 days ago
Pulling up is hardly encouraging
FUGITIF doresn't offer enough
Absent longer than any 7yo winner

THYME WHITE is 6 years old
He could be a bit short of runs
He has raced once in 99 days
As he unseated at the 1st fence
On his second run of the year
He has raced just 3 times now

Past winners runs this season
4 8 5 5 6 8 6 6 8 4 4 7 8 7 3 6 6 7 6
I want at least 4 runs this season
18 of the last 19 winners had this
THYME WHITE is one race short
 
GAELIK COAST has 68 days off
I'd rather have shorter absence
Go back to the 2002 renewal
Horses absent over 55 days
Won just once in a 1-43 record
That winner (2015) was older

FRERO BANBOU is 7 years old
Finished 3rd in the Grand Annual
Rated 142 and carrying 11st 1lbs
He is sailing close to a few angles
But he has managed to avoid them
I would see him as shortlistable
 
KING D'ARGENT 

Fails a generic statistic

One that I would consider
To be in the "forgiveable" area
Did consider selecting him here
And overruling my generic stats
But found a compromise I like
Going to make him a place saver

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet FRERO BANBOU 6/1-7/1

£4.00 Place Bet KING D'ARGENT 6/4 (1-2-3-4-5)

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