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Bank Holiday Monday

Decided against a bet

Non runners are building
It could get complicated

So will name my best bet
Which is not staked here


Message Choice

Redcar 3.24

BROKEN SPEAR 5/1-11/2

Each Way




 
Preview Selections 
  
Fairyhouse 2.05
£3.50 Each Way Mythical Hero 14/1 +  
£3.00 Win Bet  Better Times Ahead 9/4
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Redcar 2.14
£6.00 Win Bet Muhtashim 3/1-11/4
£4.00 Place Bet King Of Unicorns 6/4

Redcar 2.49
Louis Treize 8/1 +
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Redcar 3.24
Broken Spear 5/1-11/2
Each Way

Wolverhampton 3.36  
£6.50 Win Bet Scampi 3/1
£3.50 Win Bet Saigon 9/4

Kempton 4.05
£7.50 Win Bet Potapova 11/4
£2.50 Win Bet Roman Mist 11/4

Fairyhouse 5.00
£3.50 Each Way Ten Ten 25/1
£1.00 Win Bet Mister Fogpatches 16/1
£1.00 Win Bet Max Flamingo 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Enjoy D'allen 14/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6




Today's Message   


Irish Grand National Day

That race is a low priority

Hoping for a good message
But its tougher than Sunday   
And the strike rate will dip

Couple of split stakes today
Offered from different tools


Breeding Statistics suggest 

Wolverhampton 3.36  
£6.50 Win Bet SCAMPI 100/30 3/1
£3.50 Win Bet SAIGON 7/4


Race statistics suggest 

Kempton 4.05
£7.50 Win Bet POTAPOVA 11/4
£2.50 Win Bet ROMAN MIST 11/4

Considered both of these
But the rewards feel slim
Markets are also too weak




Today's Best Bet

Redcar 3.24

BROKEN SPEAR 5/1-11/2

Each Way

Not really my kind of race
Don't warm to them much
But my angles are positive
Believe he's too big a price
Emotionally not my best bet
But he probably is on paper


 




Underneath The Message 



3 heavy messages in a row
Not decided about a day off
I will crash out later on today
Given I started this at 2.15am
But I do still fancy tomorrow
May just do a short message
Trim it down and chill it out
It's odds on I will do tuesday

 
Negatives

The mention yesterday lost
Which was highly pleasing

I never say "lay negatives"
In fact there are many times
When negatives do drift out
And I back then place only

Only interested in the ones
That are at very short prices 

Horses around 9/4
That is a bit too big to include

Interested in a race at Wolves
Two horses fail breeding stats

Wolverhampton 3.36
Lost Gold 9/4
Earth Giant 4/1

If you laid both together
Both of them to lose £100
And you got both beaten
You would win about £63
You are laying about 4/6

That is an option available
But this is a smaller field
And I would prefer instead
To bet two of the alternatives
So will leave that up to you

I am going to lay in running
Trying to lay £30 each horse
At even money in running
Get both matched can't lose
Most money I can lose if £30
More out of interest really

Also going to lay them both
At a far shorter 1.10 in running
£50 on both lays for interest
Most this will cost me is £5


Irish National

£4 Win Bet TEN TEN 25/1
Not expecting much here

Fairyhouse 2.05
Mythical Hero 16/1  
£5 Win Bet 
No each way
No saver


Redcar 3.24

BROKEN SPEAR 5/1-11/2

Each Way

Like I said earlier
This type of bet annoys me
Clear evidence he can win
But he is drawn in stall 1 
Unsteady in the market too
So many tricky trainers in it
Never know how safe a place is

Going to have £15 on him

Have to enjoy your betting
And I don't enjoy his type
But it is the pragmatic bet
And I've made this my best





Yesterday's Summary  
    
Results better than message
It ended up W P W L W P L L
Strong start found 3 winners 
Overall that was pretty strong
Not that it did me much good
But just wasn't engaged in it
MT LEINSTER best bet won
May possibly have been lucky
Another rival falling helped him
I think he'd have won anyway
One or two races messed up
Non runners and price issues
But didn't make any difference
For every loser got one winner
With the best bet winning too
I'd argue it as a very good day
Seem to be staking races well 
Motivation and momentum too
Managing the workload nicely
Even if some eccentricity shows
But confident and enjoying it
Still always problems to correct
Having more bets one of those
But previews feel quite accurate 
So not doing that much wrong


PROFILES & PREVIEWS   



Fairyhouse 2.05

9/2 Vadaly, 11/2 Better Times Ahead
6/1 Celestial Horizon 8/1 Marvel Fan
12/1 Too Bright, 14/1 Justicialism
16/1 Arlo, 16/1 Mythical Hero, Rodney Bay
18/1 The Names Jock, 20/1 Ideal Pal
25/1 Golf Marin

Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m

Interesting angles in this


The right profile

Horses aged 6-7-8
Under 12 hurdle runs

Younger horses struggle

Horses aged 4 are 0-21
Horses aged 5 are 2-75

Opposing 4 year olds

CELESTIAL HORIZON
JUSTICIALISM
TOO BRIGHT
VADALY

VADALY has supporters
But she is only a 4yo filly
And has to face 51 days off

January to September
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class
During these 9 months
Fillies aged 4
Absent over 26 days
Have a 0-73 record in them
VADALY fails this 0-73 angle

Horses under 6 years old
With over 9 career starts
Have a 0-50 record in this 
RODNEY BAY fails this

Unexposed horses best
Horses with over 15 races
Have a weak 1-58 record
The following fail this
THE NAMES JOCK
IDEAL PAL
MARVEL FAN

ARLO ran 15 days ago
Beaten further than is ideal


CELESTIAL HORIZON a 4yo
Was opposed because of age
Just having a rethink about it
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
Last time out figures
Show him well clear of these
Thats why I am in two minds
But he has a tough weight



MYTHICAL HERO 

Similar type
As a unexposed 5yo
I could rule him out easily
Beaten 22 lengths 10 days ago
But he fluffed the last hurdle
Lost all momentum doing in
Eased down winner ridden out
He can be judged more kindly
Going to give him a chance


Selection

£3.50 Each Way MYTHICAL HERO 14/1 - 16/1

£3.00 Win Bet BETTER TIMES AHEAD 9/4
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Redcar 2.14

5/4 Wilkins, 9/4 Muhtashim, 100/30 Eljenob
8/1 King Of Unicorns, 16/1 Mr Moonstorm
33/1 Marcello Si, Mischief Made, 100/1 Jonny Boxer
150/1 Skedaddled, Waba Daba Do.

3yo Novice (8f)

Not much to go on

3 horses dominate market
Using a draw statistic here
To try and reduce it to two

Redcar 8f races
Since 1998
Unraced horses
Drawn 6 or higher
Have a 0-77 record
ELJENOB fails this angle
Unraced and drawn in 10
MR MOONSTORM fails it
MARCELLO SO does too
No unraced horse won this
Happy to ignore all those

WILKINS a potential winner
MUHTASHIM a positive too

KING OF UNICORNS a 5yo
Hard to know how he fares
Giving weight to 3 year olds
But he will stay the distance
Has a good recent run onside
And could play a place role
He finished 3rd at Newcastle
MUHTASHIM won that race
Could be worth betting both
Hoping their recent run helps

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet MUHTASHIM 3/1-11/4

£4.00 Place Bet KING OF UNICORNS 6/4 +







Redcar 2.49

5/1 Jems Bond, 13/2 Deevious Beau, 8/1 Billy Wedge
8/1 Giant Steps, 8/1 Louis Treize, 10/1 Penombre
10/1 Sin E Shekells, 14/1 Ireland's Eye, 16/1 Cuppacoco
16/1 Excessable, Liberty Breeze, 20/1 Highlight Reel
20/1 Kolossus, Mansfield, Marwari, Point Of Woods
20/1 The Golden Cue, 25/1 Lady Mander, Power Point
25/1 Wicklow Warrior.
 
6f handicap

No history to this race
So need to rely on intuition
And as ever here the draw

High draws struggle 

Go back to 2012
Redcar 6f races
Horses drawn 17 or more
Have a 0-123 record 

The following fail this

GIANT STEPS  
POWER POINT
POINTS OF WOODS
DEEVIOUS BEAU

Includes the 2nd and 3rd favourite
Unless the draw radically changes
And no signs it has or should do
Then these horses are in trouble
  
6f handicaps
Run here since 2008
Horses aged 3 or more
Absent more than 20 days
Drawn in stall 15 or higher
Have a 0-75 record in them
MANSFIELD fails this angle
PENOMBRE also fails it

Looked at similar races
That were like this in a big field
Decided to reject all the horses
That were absent over 65 days
Seasonal debutants win plenty
But in the bigger fields like this
They do not do nearly as well
HIGHLAND REEL is rejected
By coming down from 8f to 6f
EXCESSABLE is not ruled out
Well treated but running slowly



Possibles

BILLY WEDGE is a 7yo
Down in trip with 1 run this year
Could not match him to a winner
Interestingly trained by Neil Mechie 
He trained last weeks 50/1 winner

JEMS BOND has a chance
Not much class or excitement
But he passes enough angles


LOUIS TREIZE

Fair chance in a vicious race
Several warm up runs this year
Feels as good a strategy as any

Selection

LOUIS TREIZE 8/1 +

Each WAY

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Redcar 3.24

3/1 Il Bandito, 5/1 Mossbawn, 11/2 Broken Spear
11/2 Danielsflyer, 9/1 Queen's Sargent, 10/1 Ugo Gregory
12/1 Jack Daniel, Mutanaaseq, 14/1 Scottish Summit
16/1 Muntadab, 20/1 Surprise Picture.

7f Handicap

Not in my comfort zone
Picked a few to take out

SCOTTISH SUMMIT a 9yo
Has the worst draw in this
MUTANAASEQ 2nd worst
And goes up 2 class grades
MUNTABAD a 10yo first time

UNO GREGORY may need it
QUEEN'S SARGENT similar
Little points to him being ready
SURPRISE PICTURE is unsafe

DANIELSFLYER is an 8yo
He has had a run this season
But it was 46 days ago now
Not ruled out but not selected
Could not match him to a winner

JACK DANIEL has 2 runs
Long absence and hard to read
Modest stable not drawing me in
Percentage call would be oppose

MOSSBAWN a 5yo first time out
Opposing him on a breeding stat

Horses sired by Brazen Beau
Running over 7f + on grass
Have a 6-126 record in them
Those absent over 20 days
Have a 0-58 record so far

MOSSBAWN fails this angle
Some have won on the sand
But on grass all 58 have failed

IL BANDITO is a 4yo
Ran over 8f last time out
That profile worries me

March and April
7f Handicaps
Class 4 and higher

Horses aged 4
Over 4 career starts
Coming down from 8f
Just 1 run this season
Return a 0-25 profile

He could win despite this
If one or two do not show up
But none like him have yet
So why bet him when favourite
Stable have never had a winner
They will soon probably today
But not a good enough profile 


BROKEN SPEAR

Fittest profile
Finished 5th in the Lincoln
Great run when a 66/1 outsider
Last time may not have stayed
On soft ground here over 8f

IL BANDITO was 3rd at 6/1
BROKEN SPEAR 6th at 4/1

Not much between them last time
BROKEN SPEAR was disadvantaged
Racing on slowest part of the track
He has every chance of reversing it
 
Selection

BROKEN SPEAR 5/1-11/2

Each Way






Wolverhampton 3.36

 2/1 Lost Gold, 5/2 Saigon, 11/4 Scampi
100/30 Earth Giant, 25/1 Giovanni Change
100/1 Kindgirl.

12f Novice

LOST GOLD

Will he get home over 12f ?
When sired by Dark Angel
Having raced just once
Having 135 days absence ?
Breeding stats argue no

Horses sired by Dark Angel
Running over 1m 3f or more
Under 3 career starts
Have a 0-33 record so far
LOST GOLD is opposed

3 realistic dangers

EARTH GIANT is a 4yo
Has a breeding stat issue

Horses sired by Zoffany
Running over 1m 3f or more
With under 3 career starts
Absent more than 24 days
Have a 0-42 record in them
EARTH GIANT fails this angle
With just 1 run and 353 days off
Can he be trusted to get home ?

SAIGON is one of those
Marco Botti leaves me cold
He is going up 4f in distance
 
SCAMPI could be the one
He is 0/12 with 1 run this year
Not enough similar races here
To asses a profile like that
Tempted each way 2 places
But decided to split stake it
And hope breeding stats work

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet SCAMPI 100/30 - 3/1

£3.50 Win Bet SAIGON 7/4





Kempton 4.05

15/8 My Astra, 5/2 Potapova, 11/4 Roman Mist
12/1 Lola Showgirl, 12/1 Romantic Rival
16/1 Flame Of Freedom, 33/1 Magnificence.

Snowdrop Fillies' Stakes

Listed race 8f

13 of the last 18 renewals
Went to 4yo's first time out

MY ASTRA has this profile
But he has just 3 career runs

Past winners
Had the following runs

4 11 15 6 10 13 5 19 
10 11 10 8 15 15 14 

No winner had under 4 runs
MY ASTRA would be the first

The 4 year old winners
Who won first time out this year
Had the following career starts

15 10 6 8 12 10 9 7 13 4 6 

Most had 6 or more
All had 4 or more runs
MY ASTRA only has 3

You want a horse 
With Listed or Graded backclass

Seasonal debutants
Coming up from handicaps
Have a 0-26 record in this race
LOLA SHOWGIRL has this profile
 
Horses from Class 2 or lower
Running this calendar year 
Running within 38 days
Have a winless 0-32 record
FLAME OF FREEDOM fails this
ROMAN MIST also fails this stat

ROMANTIC RIVAL is a wild card
Hard to read first run in the U.K.
Dislike stable but cheap saver

ROMAN MIST fails a 0-32 statistic
But a bigger figure last time out
Makes me think he is a player

The ideal candidate

POTAPOVA

Micheal Stoute first time out
Cheveley Pary Stakes owned
Can we trust the connections
To get her fit first time out
Thats the biggest conundrum

Could have a saver
Roman Mist or Romantic Rival
Think the saver makes sense

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet POTAPOVA 11/4

£2.50 Win Bet ROMAN MIST  11/4






Fairyhouse 5.00

 7/1 Gaillard Du Mesnil, 8/1 Farclas, Full Time Score
10/1 Max Flamingo, Run Wild Fred, 12/1 Enjoy D'allen
14/1 Franco De Port,  14/1 School Boy Hours
16/1 Champagne Platinum, Diol Ker, Mount Ida
16/1 Ronald Pump, 20/1 Aramax, 20/1 Early Doors, 
20/1 Mister Fogpatches, Screaming Colours, Ten Ten
20/1 Time To Get Up, 25/1 Death Duty, Fakir D'alene
25/1 Floueur, Off You Go, Velvet Elvis, 33/1 Frontal Assault
33/1 Lieutenant Command, Samcro, 40/1 Battleoverdoyen
40/1 Smoking Gun, 50/1 Lord Lariat, 66/1 Streets Of Doyen.

Irish Grand National


GAILLARD DU MESNIL 

We have a 6 year old favourite

25 of the last 27 past renewals
Went to horses aged 7-8-9-10

2 winners aged 6 since 1985 
Both had 14lbs or less weight
He also fails this generic stat
 
Graded Handicap Chases   
Run over 3m 4f or further
Any time of year
Horses aged 5-6-7-8
Rated 150 or higher
Absent more than 31 days
Have a 0-55 record 
GAILLARD DU MESNIL fails this
Do not want to risk a 6 year old

VELVET ELVIS another 6yo
Comes from a Novice handicap
All 23 doing that failed in this 
LIEUTENANT COMMAND fails too
 
Also rejected

The other 6 year olds

Horses aged 11 or more

Horses rated 154 or more

Horses who ran 9 days ago
In the English Grand National

 
FARCLAS not hard to reject

Graded Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or further
Any time of year
With over 5 runners
Horses rated 150 or higher
Absent more than 46 days
Have a 0-105 record in them
FARCLAS fails this statistic

RUN WILD FRED is an 8yo
Fell in Grand National at 8th
Rejecting him with 11st 8lbs

Horses aged 8
Carrying 11st 4lbs or more
Last won this race back in 1946
MOUNT IDA also fails this angle
And unseated in Aintree National

Past renewals show
Horses from Chases 
That were under 2m 5f
Have a 0-50 record since 2009
EARLY DOORS fails this
LIEUTENANT COMMAND does

Horses from 3m 1f or more
Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time out
Have a 0-46 record in this race
The following all fails this

SCREAMING COLOURS
RONALD PUMP
FAKIR D'ALENE
TIME TO GET UP
FRANCO DE PORT
DIOL KER

DIOL KER fails breeding stats 
If you look at his sire Martaline
His runners over 3m 4f +
In Class 2 or higher grade
Have a winless 0-36 record  

The following horses
Look underraced this year

SCREAMING COLOURS
FARCLAS
OFF YOU GO
FULL TIME SCORE

SMOKING GUN too exposed
SCHOOL BOY HOURS unsafe
Pulling up just 9 days ago
CHAMPAGME PLATINUM unsafe
Not safe enough breeding stats
FLOUEUR would not be 1st choice
FRONTAL ASSAULT just pulled up 

Shortlist

MAX FLAMINGO
MISTER FOGPATCHES
ENJOY D'ALLEN 
TEN TEN 
 
ENJOY D'ALLEN is a pest
One or my Grand national bets
Fell at the 1st was frustrating
Should I bet him because of it
And not to be sickened if wins
He was 3rd in last years race
MAX FLAMINGO is a saver bet
 
TEN TEN 

Considered him last year
When he was 25/1 to win this
He was a non runner on day
Pulled out on drying ground
Had some good novice form
Looks overpriced around 25/1
With a curiously quiet campaign

Selection

£3.50 Each Way TEN TEN 25/1

£1.00 Win Bet MISTER FOGPATCHES 16/1

£1.00 Win Bet MAX FLAMINGO 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet ENJOY D'ALLEN 14/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6

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