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Today's Message
 
No message tomorrow

Cheltenham is finished 
Starting a new chapter
Heading towards Aintree
Start of the Flat season
Need to break tomorrow


3 Meetings

Carlisle has tiny fields

Main Preview

Ulster Grand National

Not sure I've nailed it
Done too many chases
Like this in recent days
So not committing to it


Message feels a bit tired
Telling me to drop a day



Tonight

Doing the Grand National
Should have lots of content
To read in the next message

Not a day I am confident of

Making this my best bet


Chepstow 4.45

£7.00 Win Bet THE BOAT 7/2-100/30

£3.00 Win Bet JUDEX LEFOU 5/2-11/4







Preview Selections  

Downpatrick 2.40
Prevaricate 4/1
Each Way

Downpatrick 3.45
£7.00 Win Bet Conquredalofeurope 8/1-9/1
£2.00 Win Bet Portstorm 7/2-4/1
£1.00 Win Bet Thunderosa 10/1-9/1 

Chepstow 4.45
£7.00 Win Bet The Boat  7/2
£3.00 Win Bet Judex Lefou 11/4-5/2





Yesterdays Summary
 
Saturday offered 5 previews
Post Cheltenham and no bet
Which finished up W P L L P
Not unfair to argue W W L L P
Jay Bee Why placing at 14/1 
Put the race into a fair profit
Doesn't matter not important
MAX FLAMINGO was a winner
But a significant non runner
Spoilt the price into only 4/7
Played in a 3 little handicaps
Not too much in it from those
Failed in the Midland National
Older winner with an absence
Was never going to select him
That was the main low point
Overall given price of selections
It was not too bad a message
After a long and tiring few days

  


PROFILES & PREVIEWS





Downpatrick 2.40

 9/4 Prevaricate, 9/2 Authorized Art
5/1 Clondaw Hollow, 11/2 Priory Park 7/1 January Jets
8/1 Barnacullia, 14/1 Coltor, 16/1 Snugsborough Hall
20/1 Longclaw.

Hurdle race

Horses rated 130 or less

12 Past renewals

Horses aged 6 7 8 9  are best
Happy to take on the older types
SNUGSBOURGH HALL is now 11
 
Horses aged 5
Have a modest 1-20 record

The only winner improving
Came there with a recent win
Second favourite fell that day
Brought down the 3rd favourite
So his task became far easier
We may get a 5 year old winner
But history says don't bank on it
I am against these 5 year olds

LONGCLAW
COLTOR
BARNACULLIA

BARNACULLIA has 83 days off
Every previous winner of the race
Raced within the last 64 days
CLONDAW HOLLOW fails this
He is an 8yo with 130 days break
JANUARY JETS has 113 days off
Comes from a chase and none did

Horses aged 6 or 7 

Have a strong 8-35 record

PRIORY PARK qualifies
But he has lost his momentum
Hammered 111 lengths last time

AUTHORIZED ART is a 7yo
Pulled up last time in top handicap
Didn't cope but is much easier
Looks here for a confidence boost
He too has lost his momentum

PREVARICATE is a 6 year old
He has 7 runs 
He has 5 hurdle runs
Thats the minimum requirement
All winners had 6 or more runs
They had 4 or more hurdle runs
So I would pass him as acceptable
But lighter raced than the others 

There are 2 horses
Who could have too much for him
But both come here running stinkers
Unlikely that both will bounce back
And there is not much else in this
PREVARICATE each way my choice
As he comes with an easy recent win
And could be turning the corner now

Selection

PREVARICATE 4/1

Each Way




Downpatrick 3.45

11/2 Spades Are Trumps, 13/2 Envol Pierji
7/1 Peaches And Cream, 7/1 Thunderosa
8/1 Fort Worth Texas 8/1 Joshua Webb, 8/1 Portstorm,
10/1 Forza Milan 12/1 Agent Boru, 12/1 Amaulino
12/1  Definite Plan, 12/1 Torygraph, 20/1 Southerner
25/1 Notice To Close, 25/1 Whatsyourstatus.


Ulster National

12 renewals

No horses aged 11 or more
Have won this race yet (0-19)
SOUTHERNER is 12 years old
Facing 381 days off the track
AGENT BORU is 11 years old

Past winners
Had the following Chase starts
6 19 9 11 6 13 8 5 7 8 5 7 12 6 9

Horses with over 13 chases
Have a weak 1-49 record in this
AGENT BORU fails this with 19
AMUALINO fails this 1-49 statistic

FORZA MILAN has has 18 chases
Combined with 112 days absence

12 renewals
11 winners ran within 31 days

The only winner that did not (2017)
Won a Point To Point 3 weeks before
So not a race to trust long absences

PEACHES AND CREAM off 119 days
SONG OF EARTH a reserve off 54 days
ENVOL PIERJI has 79 days absence
WHATSYOURSTATUS has 82 days off
SPADES ARE TRUMPS has 70 days off

Past winners
Had the following Chase starts
6 19 9 11 6 13 8 5 7 8 5 7 12 6 9
None had under 5 chase runs (0-17)

SOUTHERNER has just 1 chase run
WHATSYOURSTATUS has 4 chases
But 8 months since he ran in one

PORTSTORM has had 3 chases
Thats 2 fewer than all past winners
And he was well beaten in them both

FORT WORTH TEXAS is a mare
She has had just 3 chase starts
And is stepping up over a mile in trip
CALA DI VOPLE is a reserve runner
He has 4 chase runs completed in 3

NOTICE TO CLOSE ran 14 days ago
His 54 length defeat is a bit too much

DEFINITE PLAN has topweight
Asking a lot to carry 11st 12lbs

Horses with 11st 2lbs or more
Have a poor 1-47 record in this

DEFINITE PLAN fails this statistic
FORZA MILAN fails this angle too
TORYGRAPH has 11st 6lbs weight
And was hammered only last week
PEACHES AND CREAM has 11st 2lbs
Only just fails but has 119 days off

Another quirky angle
Horses from 3m 1f or more
Have a 0-29 record in the race
Most winners stepped up 4f +
FORZA MILAN fails this statistic

 
JOSHUA WEBB is improving
But comes from a Beginners Chase
No past winners of this handicaps
Came from a novice or beginners
My biggest concern is his last race
It was only 8 days ago
It was over a mile shorter
I looked at all similar races
Run at any time of the year
No horse under 10 years old
Won from a 2m 4f race
Running in the last 10 days
Without winning last time out
I don't think he's safe enough

Shortlist

THUNDEROSA 
CONQUREDALOFEUROPE 
PORTSTORM

CONQUREDALOFEUROPE is a 7yo
He is a annoyingly a reserve runner 
But progressive looks ideal for this 
Going to make him the selection

Now that a non runner has arrived

PORTSTORM
He failed an earlier angle
Because he has 3 chase starts
I would consider him as a saver
Which means promoting him
He comes from a local trainer
Whose tried to win this many times
So far his record in the race is 0-11
But he has had 2 4 3 3 4 3 3 placings
He had the runner up in this last year
With a horse with just 2 chase races
He is obviously laid out for this race
 
THUNDEROSA has to prove stamina
Would not be guaranteed to stay here
But he is more likely to than not
He is now looking well handicapped
Having ran a career best last time
In a R.P.R. 7lbs higher than his mark

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet CONQUREDALOFEUROPE 9/1

£2.00 Win Bet PORTSTORM 7/2-4/1

£1.00 Win Bet THUNDEROSA  10/1-9/1





Chepstow 4.45

9/4 Judex Lefou, 9/2 Celma Des Bois
5/1 The Boat, 7/1 Hang Tough, 9/1 Hartland Quay
10/1 Cobra Commander, Oxwich Bay, 16/1 Ballycor
16/1  Fair To Dream, 25/1 Gaelic Thunder.

Handicap Chase 2m 3f

Horses rated 0-102

OXWICH BAY is the topweight
But a 10yo pulling up last time
Does not look a likely winner
If as expected he fails to win

JUDEX LEFOU heads the list 
He looks most likely winner
Impressive winning at Exeter
Beaten next time at Huntingdon
But he was 2nd far from a flop
And he was coming back quickly
Running on a sharper track too

Last time figures
Suggest he is comfortably clear
He has to make the staking plan 
Around 5/2 considered each way
He could also be a win bet as well
But he has plenty of weight here
Could even have other targets
So looked upon him as a saver bet
You can talk down several others
Without being able to rule them out
THE BOAT could be interesting here

Trainer runs topweight Oxwich Bay
Which allows him a nice light weight
He is getting 21lbs from Judex Lefou
That could be valuable on soft ground

If you take the view
His run over 3 miles or more
Were down to lack of stamina 
You can understand his form
And he looks well handicapped
Going to save on the favourite

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet THE BOAT 7/2

£3.00 Win Bet JUDEX LEFOU 5/2-11/4




   
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Next 3 Saturdays


March 26th - Lincoln Handicap

April 2nd - Scottish National

April 9th - Aintree Grand National




Lincoln handicap

Flat Season starts Saturday
Good to have the flat back
High tempo messages again


Lincoln Statistics are below
Will cover this race shortly
Likely Friday after declarations
And once we know the draw

Scottish National

First time this will be run
Before the English National
That will corrupt my angles
We will do something in this
But will downgrade the race


Aintree Grand National

3 Weeks to go
Need to start work on this
Planning to do this tonight

Cheltenham Festival


Scores on the Doors


Previews

17 Previews
5 Winners
8 Losers
14 Placed

Not too unhappy with that
It was far from a disaster
And I think we were unlucky
With a lot of close seconds


Account Bets

Planned for 4
Ended up with 2 and a half
One was a non runner
Another was half a bet

Bet 1
Gaelic Warrior 5/2 
Each Way

The controversial bet
He ran a brilliant race
Looked like hacking up
Nailed on the line late
But half our stakes back


Bet 2
Before Midnight 14/1 Each Way
Gumball 16/1 Each Way 

Before Midnight did not run
Got left with just an outsider
Who hated all the heavy rain


Bet 3
Chantry House 16/1 Each Way
Galvin 4/1 Saver Bet

Hoped for better in this
But he just did not perform
Always knew it was a risk





Generic Statistics
  
93 Losers
4 Winners 

Anything over the 1 winner
Feels these underperformed
One winner was factored in  
Left us nothing on our side
And I tipped the 25/1 winner
Third Wind as a £1 saver bet 
Generics hard to profit from
They help me more than you
More accurately my previews
Every message was on time
Thats because of the generics
Save me hours I do not have
Whilst they work for messages
Not convinced they help you


Overall view

Not unhappy with the festival
Given how many races there
And so many quite impossible

What the week taught me most
High tempo messages do well 
More choice and detailed stats
Just better than smaller fields  
That kill so many possible bets
With non runner/price changes 
Helped me enjoy racing again
Look forward to the flat season

Just before the festival started
I mentioned the old "marines"  
Members long in the service
Received several messages 
Many of these reminded me
They don't follow all the bets
They use the analysis more 
Confirming their own betting
Knowing its well researched
And care less than I clearly do
About whether a main bet wins

I place far too much emphasis
On whether there is a main bet
And whether it wins and loses
And many members do as well

The service is simply what it is 
Whilst not everybody likes it 
But nobody does it like we do
The standard overall feels high
  
We make plenty of mistakes
Still lots of problem areas too
The account recently is one
Saturday messages another

But the angles in the previews
Are quite often beautiful to read
They are accurate and truthful
Structured in the same style
As the Nostradamus quatrains
And like me he got a lot wrong
Stats do not all work out well 
But whatever the final results
You know why you are betting
And usually what the issues are


Cheltenham Staking

Felt I did a good job here
Cutting down potential damage

Constution Hill
Edwardstone 

Did not like either horse
But we did not lose in either race

Gaelic Warrior the staked bet
Turned out to be very well staked

Staked the Cross Country well
Saving on the winner Delta Work

Staked the Bumper quite well

Bob Ollinger was very lucky
Within 2 minutes of that winner
A member emailed me to leave
Wanted to cancel his membership
After he had just had a winner

No idea why or what happened
But I have had it happen before
He may have thought correctly
I had got the race badly wrong

But I hadnt

I said I was guessing in the race
Most bets from almost all tipsters
Are little more than guesswork
Those that say that they are not
Are either lying to you or in denial
Or don't understand the big issues

Missed that one big winner though
Mister Coffey 12/1 - 7/1 nearly was
Well staked bet but petrol ran out

Vauban won the first on the Friday
Somebody rang me in the morning
We like the same style of betting
I told him to bet it each way at 15/8
He agreed and we both did that
By then too late to change previews
But it did make me think afterwards

Should give my own personal stake
In each message on any bets I have
I regularly go off message myself
Take a different view to the previews
Those stakes are designed mainly
To avoid losing runs for members

We could add an extra column
My interpretation of the message
What is a guess and what is not
How I would interpret my analysis
Personal bets I have or like best
Maybe bring back The negatives 
But some people misread these
They are assume these are lays
Most of them are really not that
They work better just promoting 
A better and alternative selection
Feel there is a clearly a case now
Adding a new message column


Ante Post Statistics

Saturday March 26th

Doncaster 3.36

Lincoln Handicap (8f)

5/1 Mujtaba 5/1 Saleymm 6/1 Modern News
8/1 Valiant Prince 10/1 Sunray Major 12/1 Tinker Toy
14/1 Notre Belle Bete 16/1 Boosala 16/1 Aratus
16/1 Ametist 16/1 La Tihaty 16/1 Brunch
20/1 Long Tradition 20/1 Darkness 20/1 Carolus Magnus 
25/1 Rogue Bear 25/1 Irish Admiral 25/1 Chance
25/1 Al Rufaa 33/1 Dance Fever 25/1 Gioia Cieca
25/1 Another Batt 25/1 Eagleway 25/1 Fox Champion

Horses aged 7 or more 
Have a 0-71 record since 1999

Horses aged 4
Won the last 4 renewals
And 11 of the last 16 renewals
 
Best Profile

4 year old
Seasonal debutant
4-15 career runs
Not absent over 7 months
Not from a 3yo handicap
 
4yo seasonal debutants
Won 10 races since 1999
They had the following  runs
4 4 7 11 4 14 6 5 15 12 5  

4yo seasonal debutants
Won off these official ratings
100 99 100 100 98 107 97 98 97 95
 
Horses with under 4 career runs
Have a 0-14 record in this race
 
Go back to the 2000 renewal
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Have a worrying 1-65 record
  
20 of the last 21 winners
Came from Class 2-3 races
None came from Class 4-5-6
 
Horses from Listed/Group races
Have a poor overall 1-74 record
In the last 15 years they are 0-53
 
Horses that came from 9f or more
Won 7 of the previous 15 renewals
3 came from the Cambridgeshire
  
16 renewals since 2005
14 of the 16 winners rated between 95-105
The last 6 rated 100 100 99 102 100 100 100
Horses rated under 90
Have a 0-25 record since 2002
 
No horse won absent 239 + days (0-35)
None won absent 211 + days since 2002 (0-39)
  
The last 6 winners 
Were drawn 10 17 10 15 20 22  
   
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