6 Previews 
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Today's Message 


6 previews

3 short priced bets

3 better priced bets



Still feels very midweek-ish
Not the best timed message
Ended up with six previews
Prices bit shorter than Ideal


 
Today's Best Bet
  

Thurles 2.32
 
MOON RISE BEAUTY 8/1-7/1

Each Way



Hard to judge the strength of this
Looks a reasonably price overall
With one or two doubts in others
She is not an each way banker
But felt the price was a bit too big

Message feels a bit too laboured
The weekend is round the corner
Will improve for the better races





Preview Selections

Leicester 12.47
Ballintubber Boy 7/1
Each Way

Thurles 1.32
Darasso 7/4 
Win Bet

Leicester 1.47
Georges Saint 5/4
Win Bet

Thurles 2.02
Innatendue 5/4 
Win Bet

Thurles 2.32
Moon Rise Beauty  8/1-7/1 
Each Way
 
Chelmsford 4.30 
£4.50 Each Way Mc'Ted 6/1
£1.00 Win Bet Overstate 14/1-16/1
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4







Underneath The Message 
  
 
Leicester 12.47
Ballintubber Boy 7/1
Each Way

If there is any non runner
Switch to a win bet only
With a saver on Kotmask
This is about the favourite
Whether he bounces or not
Feel this is a reasonable bet
Without knowing the strength


3  shorter priced bets


Thurles 1.32 - Darasso 7/4 

Leicester 1.47 - Georges Saint 5/4

Thurles 2.02 - Innatendue 5/4 
  

Weakest of these 
Probably would be Darasso
As he faces classier rivals



Will be disappointed 

If neither of the other two win
 
But not tempted to bet myself

Last two previews

Have a bit more meat on bones

 
Thurles 2.32
Moon Rise Beauty  8/1-7/1 
Each Way

She is 4th favourite each way
Going to go with a different bet
But not staking hard in this race
Opposing the 2 shortest prices
But neither of them are negatives
Just a bit unorthodox to commit to
She seemed a good alternative
But going win and place myself



Personal Bet

£10 Win Bet Moon Rise Beauty 7/1-8/1

£10 Place Bet Molleys Glory 11/10

 
 
Chelmsford 4.30 
£4.50 Each Way Mc'Ted 6/1
£1.00 Win Bet Overstate 14/1 -16/1
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4


Far hardest race to get right

Probably won't bother here
More interested in the result
And getting the analysis right







Yesterday's Summary  

Six previews easily summed up
Two decent bets and 4 bad ones
Felt it was better than it looked
The two races I liked most of all
Were also the best two results 
Nemean Lion officially is a loser
But I did make my position clear
Much better as an each way bet
Saint Xavier was an easy winner
Top of the message did very well
The other races were quite poor
La Tulipe Noire very  frustrating
Planned to save on the winner
Last minute decision to cancel
Backfired as she went in at 16/1
Couldn't give her away early on
She was weak 29/1 and drifting 
Did not want to carve stakes up
This was clearly a staking error
Got those race negatives beaten  
We should not have lost there
Another staking howler earlier
Inis Oirr was beaten by a neck
I chose the wrong saver there
The winner on breeding stats
With the same sire as the 2nd
Was a very obvious positive
My breeding stats once again
Will be incandescent with me
They nailed that race very well
But I hated the winners stable
Hardly any winners these days
Their last was over a year ago
Just did not see her as reliable
Got egg on my face in that one
Two races with decent analysis
Thrown away by staking issues
Not a very impressive message
But a little better than it looked
And the two I liked best did ok





PROFILES & PREVIEWS
  

Leicester 12.47

7/4 Apple Rock, 9/2 Kotmask, 5/1 Shalakar
6/1 Sullivan's Brow, 7/1 Ballintubber Boy, 10/1 Luckofthedraw
14/1 Imac Wood, 25/1 Iron Horse.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f


APPLE ROCK

Won easily on seasonal debut
Clearly well treated on that run
Expecting one of two outcomes

He wins again
He bounces

Having had 238 days absence
He is coming back 9 days later
That could be a challenge for him
Given he is 8 and not lightly raced
And he's dropping half a mile in trip

Complicated profile
We have no way of predicting
Whether he follows up or bounces
But taking him on given his profile

Several seasonal debutants
Happy to avoid the small stables
None of  who have trained winners
That faces long absences before
LUCKOFTHEDRAW one of them
IMAC WOOD is another 

SHALAKAR has an absence
Just 1 run since January 2019
Just too many wellbeing doubts

SULLIVAN'S BROW is rejected
Unorthodox 7yo with an absence
IRON HOUSE not enough positives
Given he is 11 and absent 302 days

KOTMASK comes from Ascot
Better class race negative last time
Could be a saver bet but 1 issue
He has a lot of weight for a 4yo

Go back to 2010
October to December
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 4
Under 10 career starts
Just 1 run this season
Carrying 11st 11lbs or more
Return a 0-30 record in them 
KOTMASK has this profile

Still see him as a positive
If there was a non runner in this
He'd be a saver to a win bet
But going with an each way bet
Happy to forgive his last run

Selection

BALLINTUBBER BOY 7/1

Each Way






Thurles 1.32

 2/1 Darasso, 9/4 Mount Ida
3/1 Cilaos Emery, 7/2  Escaria Ten
200/1 Indie Belle.

2m 6f Chase

Listed race

DARASSO has 3 runs since July
Racing Post Ratings 155 155 159
Consistent and healthy numbers
And not condensed but spaced out 
Given time between all three races
He should be very difficult to beat
With his in built fitness advantages

CILAOS EMERY won this in 2021
Long odds on with 1 main danger
She has now turned 10 years old 
Older than any past winner of this

MOUNT IDA a mare first time out
Could be the biggest danger here
Luckless in the Spring last season
She may have big targets later on
Unseating in both her last 2 chases
They will want a clear round today

ESCARIA TEN could be the one
But this could be a prep run too
Connections have 2 possible targets
Welsh National and The Thyestes
Like other it could be a prep race

Don't like relying on Joseph O'Brien
But feel he deserves to be winning
He was a negative in the Galway Plate
Opposed him in the Kerry National
May get his deserved win in this

Selection

DARASSO 7/4

Win Bet







Leicester 1.47

13/8 Georges Saint, 7/2 Imperial Bede, 9/2 Mount Tempest
7/1 Downsman, General Medrano, 8/1 Awesome Foursome
100/1 Adamhill.

Novice Hurdle 2m

GEORGES SAINT can win

Feel he has been well placed
Won twice over fences before
But yet to win a hurdle race
But his 3 runs were in handicaps
Classy events better than this
His opposition is not that strong
IMPERIAL BEDE has questions
As a 4yo from a bumper last year
MOUNT TEMPEST may need time
Hurdling debut last time at 25/1
Given he's trained by Dan Skelton 
He can not be discounted here
But his last price puts me off 
AWESOME FORSOME a 5yo
Could go well down in  distance
But on figures like the favourite

Selection

GEORGES SAINT 5/4

Win Bet






Thurles 2.02

5/2 Innatendue, 4/1 No Looking Back, 11/2 Hands Of Gold
13/2 Jeepydoff Meel, 8/1 Ages Of Man, 9/1 Trust Me Nate
12/1 San Martino, 16/1 Solitary Man, 20/1 On The Tide
33/1 Small Money, 33/1 Stellium, 33/1 Surviving Murmansk
40/1 French Company, 66/1 Falvio, 66/1 Misstheamaria.
 
4yo Maiden Hurdle
 
Lots we don't know

Many raw profiles in this

HANDS OF GOLD is one that is

Similar races at this time of year
Horses with just 1 career race
Over hurdles in the last 6 weeks
Have a very modest 5-221 record
Small strike rate and those like him
Who started over 10/1 on his debut
Produces a worrying 0-189 record 
HANDS OF GOLD 25/1 on debut
Does not offer us enough positives

JEEPYDOFF MEEL has 1 run
Starting 40/1 for Gordon Elliot
Hardly suggests current ability
Needs to improve hardly safe

NO LOOKING BACK has 2 runs
Beaten in both bumpers last year
But can not make him a negative

INNATENDUE

Sets the standard over hurdles

She has had 4 hurdle runs now

Her graded runs not too relevant
But her figures are good enough

Beaten on her seasonal debut
She had good excuses that day
She was a filly with an absence
She failed a 1-220 stat at Wexford
So feel we should upgrade her run
Seems a very sound opportunity

Selection 

INNATENDUE 5/4

Win Bet






Thurles 2.32

5/2 Foxy Girl, 7/2 Liberty Dance, 9/2 Moon Rise Beauty
11/2 Mollys Glory, 13/2 Cash The Cheque, 9/1 A Law Of Her Own
10/1 Chautuaqua, 12/1 Hamartia, 50/1 Lovely Reaction, Pana To Milan
66/1 Costaweefortune, 66/1 Glenvara Lady, 100/1 Cathys Quest
100/1 Knockane Lady, 100/1 Special Protector.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m

Should be between 4-5 horses

Some of the market leaders
Have unorthodox profiles here
Not negatives but questionable

FOXY GIRL faces 585 days off
Having just raced once in France
Might win but in quite a big field 
Would rather take her on here

LIBERTY DANCER unorthodox
Comes from a Graded hurdle
Nothing wrong with that at all
But it was her hurdling debut
It was her first run of the year
No winners won with her profile
The horses from graded races
All had at least 6 previous runs
She has only had 4 career runs
No surprise if she wins or loses

The more orthodox profiles

MOON RISE BEAUTY
MOLLYS GLORY

Both are work in progress
MOON RISE BEAUTY is a 5yo
Willie Mullins but no superstar 
She is work in progress though
If she jumps better she can win

MOLLYS GLORYis a 7yo
Much more experienced here
With 7 Bumper runs 5 hurdles
But she has raced once this year
Similar races show 7 year olds
When as exposed as she is now
Score better with more recent runs

Ideally I'd like her as a saver bet
With an each way bet in unison
MOON RISE BEAUTY that bet
But prices are on the skinny side
This is a weak market as well 
Tempted by win and place bet
But decided to go each way here

Selection

MOON RISE BEAUTY 8/1-7/1

Each Way







Chelmsford 4.30

3/1 Lethal Touch, 6/1 Unplugged, 8/1 Mc'Ted
8/1 Moonlit Cloud, 8/1 Pure Motion, 10/1 Overstate
12/1 Bit Harsh, Kardinya, Marquis Of York, 16/1 Asdaa
16/1  Roaring River, 20/1 It's A Love Thing, 201 Miss Harmony
50/1 Taskheer. 

10f Handicap

Trappy little race

Happy to avoid certain types

Those with under 5 career runs
The following horses fail this

PURE MOTION
ROARING RIVER
BIT HARSH

Happy to avoid these horses
Stepping up from 7f to 10f

TASKHEER
ROARING RIVER
KARDINYA

MOONLIGHT CLOUD is a filly
Looks unsafe with 128 days off
MARQUIS OF YORK is unsafe
Tough draw and only rated 55
And has to come up in distance
MISS HARMONY feels beatable
IT'S A LONG THING is a 4yo
Looks underraced 2 runs since April
ASDAA topweight from stall 14
Has too many factors against him

LETHAL TOUCH is a 3yo filly
She won her last race 33 days ago

Similar 10f races show us
Fillies aged 3 winning last time
Having more than 10 career runs
Only followed up with recent runs
Running in the previous 12 days

November and December
Handicaps over 6f and more
Class 6 races
3yo fillies winning last time
More than 11 career starts
Absent more than 18 days
Have a 0-14 record in them
Wanted a more recent race

UNPLUGGED has challenges
He is 6 year old with 9st 13lbs
Without a run in 33 days now
Felt one or two better profiles

MC TED

Solid profile
My number 1 choice
Stall 12 just about ok
But I'd have liked lower

OVERSTATE is a 3yo
Positive but 11th in weights
Not particularly rich in class  

Selection

£4.50 Each Way MC TED 7/1-15/2

£1.00 Win Bet OVERSTATE 10/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

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