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Plumpton 2.15

£7.00 Win Bet Royal Ruby 3/1-100/30

£3.00 Win Bet Mystical Clouds 9/4





Preview Selections


Plumpton 1.40
Tip Top Tonto 9/2-5/1
Each Way

Leopardstown 1.50
£5.00 Win - Schiele 2/1-9/4
£5.00 Place - All In The Mind 4/5

Plumpton 2.15
£7.00 Win Bet Royal Ruby 3/1-100/30
£3.00 Win Bet Mystical Clouds 9/4

Leopardstown 3.00
£5.00 Win Bet First Emperor 13/2
£5.00 Win Bet Waterville 10/11

Leopardstown 4.05
Agartha 6/4
Win Bet

Leopardstown 5.35
£3.00 Each Way Overheer 8/1
£2.00 Each Way Tooreen Angel 18/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5





Today's Message  

 
The end of a long period  

No Message on Monday

York starts on Wednesday
Grown to love this course
Wednesday a brilliant card
Some fascinating handicaps

My priority over next 2 days
Have a day off get jobs done
Target some York handicaps

Future Betting angles lately
Was thrown under the bus
So plan to be correcting this
With a big ante post message
Probably coming on Tuesday

Lots of runners today

Hamilton has to be dropped
Lots of big field handicaps
If I had done some of them
They would all read similar
Opposing the higher draws
Siding with the fitter profiles
But non runners are an issue
And that could kill draw stats

Ludlow's card offers us little
I am staying with 2 meetings
Plumpton and Leopardstown

Nothing close to a main bet

Lots of little mini angles
Which make races interesting
But going for a small field race
Over fences for my best bet



Message Choice


Plumpton 2.15

£7.00 Win Bet ROYAL RUBY 3/1-100/30

£3.00 Win Bet MYSTICAL CLOUDS 9/4





Underneath The Message


Not doing much myself

Tip Top Tonto 5/1 each way
Does not have much class
More a place chance than win
But if the unraced hurdlers
Prove my stats right he may
I don't want to bother here
Unless it is for silly stakes

Leopardstown 1.50
£5.00 Win - Schiele 2/1-9/4
£5.00 Place - All In The Mind 4/5

Hoping this is smart staking
I also considered another bet
Schiele each way around 9/4
But I can not trust Joseph
And he just had a hard race 
Not going to bother with this


Plumpton 2.15
£20 Royal Ruby 3/1-100/30
£10 Mystical Clouds 9/4

Not going mad here
Not sure which is stronger
Mystical Clouds more reliable
Feel we have to be on both

Leopardstown 3.00
£5.00 Win Bet First Emperor 13/2
£5.00 Win Bet Waterville 10/11

Like the selection on paper
But not going to have a bet
You could make it far safer
With a place bet First Emperor


Leopardstown 4.05
Agartha 6/4
Win Bet

Not betting him at 6/4
Not coming from Joseph

If I can get 7/4 later on
May have £16 each way

Leopardstown 5.35
£3.00 Each Way Overheer 8/1
£2.00 Each Way Tooreen Angel 18/1

Won't be following these stakes
Annoyingly only 2 minutes ago
The favourite has just pulled out

Probably have a boredom bet

£5 Overseer to place at 2/1
£10 Tooreen Angel win 18/1

Just not fired up for betting
At the end of a long session




Yesterday's Summary 

Felt that was a respectable day
Apart from the main staked bet
Follow Your Heart drifted a bit
There were early warning signs
But at one stage looked a winner
Got matched at 11/10 in running
Frustratingly at 1.08 for a place
Maybe he just did not get home
Perhaps the far rail hurt him too
Obviously the low point on a day
It wasn't too shabby otherwise
Officially finished W L P P L W L
Saved our stake in Victoria Cup
Happy that all my stats survived
And the shortlist was a toss up
Brad The Brief started us off well
Severance comfortably placed
Ermin Street won his race at 13/2
But got chucked out by stewards
I wasn't bothered about that race
I am now as a winner got robbed
Long way from a good message
But it had a few decent moments
But as the main bet was a loser
Difficult to see it in a better light

   




PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
    

Plumpton 1.40

15/8 Sophosc, 7/2 Alioski, 9/2 Psyche
7/1 Blood Eagle, Tip Top Tonto, 12/1 Pure Bubbles
20/1 Save Face, Springar, 150/1 Haraz.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Several hurdling debutants
With a long flat career as well
Going to oppose these types
Based on the following angles

May
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance

Hurdling debutants
Coming from the flat
Running this season
Over 8 lifetime races
Have a poor 1-79 record
Those aged 4-5-6 are 0-69

SOPHOSC fails this angle
PURE BUBBLES fails it too
PSYCHE also fails this angle

BLOOD EAGLE is rejected
He has 200 days off the track
But 10 hurdle races so far
Career best hurdle figure 87
Suggests he is very limited
SAVE FACE hasn't done much 

Nothing gets me excited here

AILOSKI must be shortlisted
But hardly bred for hurdles
Just 1 flat run in months too
He was only rated 43 on flat
His trainers runners since 2000
Have a 0-75 record on all codes

TIP TOP TONTO is hard to read
Fell on hurdling debut last time
Would have been well beaten 
But he met far better horses

Could go win and saver bet
But felt the sensible strategy 
TIP TOP TONTO each way
He is not an each way banker
But each way does help here
As this allows us to be wrong
Yet still not necessarily lose 

PURE BUBBLES is the one
That I would fear the most

Selection

TIP TOP TONTO 9/2- 5/1

Each Way





Leopardstown 1.50

11/10 Corporal Violette, 2/1 Schiele
7/1 All In The Mind, 10/1 Yester, 14/1 Observing
20/1 Short N Sweet, 33/1 Ballycallan King
33/1Ms Eagleton, Wiggle Room, 50/1 I'm Polly
50/1 Zonik, 200/1 Aconcagua Mountain
200/1 Lightly Spiced, Our Dickie.
 
3yo Maiden (7f)

Interesting issues in this race

CORPORAL VIOLETTE a filly
Should have won already
Badly draw and badly ridden
When last seen as a 2 year old
May be better class than these

But she is a filly with 2 runs
Who has 203 days off the track

Should we listen to an angle
That says horses from his sire
Running over 7f and more
With under 3 career starts
Are 0-19 absent over 6 weeks ?
Hard to be sure if that matters

SCHILE has had a run this year
It was a pretty good one as well
Badly drawn went off too quickly
I could fancy him on that run
But will this come too quickly ?
Just 15 days after his comeback

Hard to know 
Impossible to predict 

ALL IN THE MIND ran in that race
He was unlucky got badly trapped
SCHILE may be a superior horse
But he could be a place bet here

ALL IN THE MIND place only
Could be the smart strategy here
If we make the wrong win choice
He could yet come and save us
Going to play the race this way

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet SCHILE 2/1-9/4

£5.00 Place Bet ALL IN THE MIND 4/5






Plumpton 2.15

9/4 Salamanca School, 100/30 Royal Ruby
7/2 Mystical Clouds, 6/1 Catch The Cuban
7/1 Shentri, 9/1 The Flying Sofa, 20/1 Dindin.

Handicap Chase 2m 4f

Nasty little 7 runner race

Opposing the 5 year olds

May
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any Class of race

Horses aged 5
Over 15 lifetime runs
Have a 0-32 record
SALAMANCA SCHOOL fails this

Horses aged 5
Over 9 lifetime runs
Absent more than 71 days
Have a 0-41 record in them
SHENTRI fails this statistic

My angles are suggesting
We stay with older horses

THE FLYING SOFA is out
Pulling up just 5 days ago
DINDIN also just pulled up 
May not have acclimatised
Having come from France
 
CATCH THE CUBAN a 6yo
Could win even with a break

ROYAL RUBY is a positive
But on the unorthodox side
As a 10yo with 3 chase runs
But you have to ask yourself
Having career interruptions
Why has Nicky Henderson
Kept him rather than sold him
He could just be best fresh

MYSTICAL CLOUDS a 9yo
Has been running quite well
Looks at least a saver option

Split staking this race

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet ROYAL RUBY 3/1-100/30

£3.00 Win Bet MYSTICAL CLOUDS 9/4



 
Leopardstown 3.00

5/2 Waterville, 4/1 First Emperor
9/2 Gulliver's Travels, 7/1 Fleet Commander
8/1 Como Park, 12/1 Fumata, 14/1 Carlton Gardens
14/1 Fourofakind, 20/1 Captain Hornblower
25/1 Mercury Mission, 50/1 War Correspondent.
           
12f Maiden

Should not really be doing this
But it does allow to me to write

Jesus Mary and Joseph

All 3 of the O'Brien's
Are in with chances here

WATERVILLE is 4/5
You could argue that is extreme
But he has a massive reputation
Said to be babyish on his debut
Any Epsom Derby plans ended
Aidan say the next move for him
Win a maiden and then Ascot

This is that maiden
And he probably will win it
But things are not that simple
Aidan trains the second favourite
Who also cost a couple of million

WATERVILLE is going up 2f in trip

So  a horse described as "babysish"
Tries to win a hot maiden up in trip
With possibly the worst draw 11/11

This draw statistic
May be a little contrived  
But it fits a certain type like him

Go back to 2009
Leoparstown 12f races
With under 14 runners
Horses with under 6 runs
Drawn in stall 9 or more
Have a 0-41 record in them
That may be a factor here

The following all fail this angle

WATERVILLE is drawn 11 of 11
FLEET COMMANDER drawn 9
FOUROFAKIND is drawn in 10

WATERVILLE may still win this
My gut feeling he probably will
But it tells me that at the prices
We are better off split staking it
Ideally a win and a place bet 

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet FIRST EMPEROR 13/2

£5.00 Win Bet WATERVILLE 10/11




Leopardstown 4.05

2/1 Agartha, 9/2 Panama Red, 5/1 History
7/1 Lady Of Inishfree, 8/1 Suwayra, 9/1 Lullaby
10/1 Show Of Stars, 16/1 Nectaris, Princess Olly
20/1 Suwappu, 33/1 Honey Girl
50/1 Beautiful Sunshine.

Group 3 (Fillies 8f)

AGARTHA is rated 109
Officially the best horse
Joseph's filly has 9 runs

His market danger
HISTORY trained by Aidan
Worth considering his draw
He has the widest draw in 11

This draw stat is strange 
But valid and worth considering

Leopardstown
Races over 5f 6f 7f 8f
Under 13 runners
Run in Class 3 or higher
Horses drawn 10 or more
Absent more than 61 days
Have a poor 1-54 record
HISTORY has this problem

PANAMA RED is also unsafe
There is a stamina doubt here
Especially in this class of race
His sire has had pattern winners
That were over a mile of further
None won absent over 25 days
His dosage index worries me too

Which horse has the least risk?

AGARTHA probably in my view

She comes from the best trial
And has the best form/figures

Selection

AGARTHA 6/4

Win Bet




 
Leopardstown 5.35

9/2 Empyrea, 13/2 Entropy
7/1 Annexation, 8/1 Evergreen And Red
8/1 Jungle Cove, 17/2 Hell Bent, 10/1 Tooreen Angel
11/1 Overheer, 22/1 Dublin Journal, 25/1 New Hill
28/1 Zola Sakura, 33/1 Bringsty, In From The Cold
 50/1 Snag It, 66/1 Big Challenge, Forbidden Planet.

10f Handicap

Wide open
Just playing with this race
Mainly because of the draw

Go back to 2013
Leopardstown 8f races
With under 18 runners
Horses drawn 12 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have a 1-89 record in them

The following all fail this

BRINGSTY
EVERGREEN AND RED
ENTROPY
DUBLIN JOURNAL 
JUNGLE COVE

Cherry picking weaker profiles
ANNEXATION has 100 days off
ZOLA SAKURAA absent too long
EMPYREA a filly with an absence
Also looks worryingly inexperienced
HELL BENT has 10st with a break

IN FROM THE COLD 10/1

He is coming from a hurdle
Not ideal but it's been done
In similar races here in May
He has been well backed too 
Just prefer a couple more


OVERHEER 8/1

He is going is up in distance
Having raced once this season
But can match him to a winner
Upgrading his seasonal debut

He had a long break
His trainer has a bad record
With horses with absences

He was drawn 16 of 16 too
That made is task far harder
His figures suggest off 80
He is capable of winning this

Had a lot of excuses before
Heavy ground at Naas hurt him
Had a horrible draw at this track
In a big field handicap in October
Did not stay 12 furlongs before it


TOOREEN ANGEL 18/1

She may lack the class to win
But she has been running well
Gets lots of weight from others
Good draw and overpriced 


Selection

£3.00 Each Way OVERHEER 8/1

£2.00 Each Way TOOREEN ANGEL 18/1
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5
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