6 Previews 
0 Account Bet      


 
No Account Bet 
 
  


Preview Selections 

Fontwell 2.10
£5.00 Win Bet Enrichissant 5/1-11/2
£5.00 Win Bet On Springs 11/10-6/5

Fontwell 2.45
£8.00 Win Bet Limelighter 11/4
£2.00 Win Bet Bucko's Boy 7/2

Wexford 3.10
The Folkes Tiara 5/4-11/10
Win Bet

Haydock 3.30
£4.00 Each Way Zulu Tracker 8/1
£2.00 Win Bet Elsals 4/1

Wexford 4.55
£8.00 Win Bet Meehall 9/2-5/1
£2.00 Win Bet Presenting Cody 7/2

Cork 6.40
Geocentric 5/4
Win Bet







Today's Message     
 
Rain could affect a few races
Expecting lots of bad weather
Hope the previews will hold up
And not suffer much disruption 
But plenty of known unknowns
Might be on the bounce today
So not a day for major decisions



 
Message Choice
 
Fontwell 2.45 

£8.00 Win Bet LIMELIGHT 11/4

£2.00 Win Bet BUCKOS BOY 7/2






Underneath The Message    


Like two of the bets today

May add a third off message
 
Haydock 2.55

Courageous Knight 6/4

Not covered this race below
But in Betfairs e/w market
If I can get some 6/4 later on 
Going to have £20 each way
Could win £36 or lose £14
Assuming he gets his place



Fontwell 2.10

£12.00 Win ENRICHISSANT 5/1-11/2

£10.00 Win ON SPRINGS 11/10-6/5

Quite like this split stake bet
Only need second fav beaten
That danger impossible to judge
But he was sold cheaply recently 
Just felt this was staked nicely

Similar strategy in this race


Fontwell 2.45
 
£14.00 Win Bet LIMELIGHT 11/4

£4.00 Win Bet BUCKOS BOY 7/2





Yesterday's Review
 
It showed a lot of signs of rust
Nothing back from 3 previews
NIGG BAY was the best bet
Did not start the race too well
Came with a sweeping late run
Probably should have won that
Beaten a short head and neck
Having been matched at 1.05
He was one that just got away
 Arlecchino's Gift finished 3rd
We never looked competitive 
Probably staked the race badly
On The Nose finished second
Beaten by the biggest danger
Could have saved on that one
So a bit frustrating to watch it
Undercooked message really
Often happens after a day off


PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
  

Fontwell 2.10

5/4 On Springs, 11/4 Dell Oro
5/1 Enrichissant 8/1 Annie Nail 

Handicap Chase 2m 3f

ON SPRINGS is the class horse
At least on all current evidence 
Won very nicely just 7 days ago
 
DELL ORO is well handicapped
Any arguments you can offer up
About his backclass and rating
Are undermined by being sold
For just £3500 only 9 weeks ago
ON SPRING should beat these

ENRICHISSANT is a big threat

He could exploit any weakness
In the favourite On Springs

After all

ON SPRINGS has 3 chase runs
Not a lot for a track like this
Has raced only once in 103 days
Has topweight to carry as well
Going to split stake this race

Selection 

£5.00 Win Bet ENRICHISSANT 5/1-11/2

£5.00 Win Bet ON SPRINGS 11/10-6/5





Fontwell 2.45

15/8 Greystoke, 5/2 Limelighter
11/4 Bucko's Boy, 5/1 Vorashann
12/1 Mister Allegro.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 2f

Small field

Will weaken angles

But going to oppose 4 year olds

Not a great track for youngsters

April May June July
Fontwell Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 4
Have a poor 1-70 record
MISTER ALLEGRO is a 4yo
GREYSTOKE is also a 4yo

GREYSTOKE harder to oppose
Coming from a top class stable
Having already won over hurdles
But would prefer an older horse
VORASHANN is one of those
But he has topweight to carry
Just 1 run in 102 days behind him
Do not see a bomb proof profile
Rather bet older momentum types

LIMELIGHT has the best profile


Selection

£8.00 Win Bet LIMELIGHT 11/4

£2.00 Win Bet BUCKOS BOY 7/2







Wexford 3.10

2/1 Perceval Legallois, The Folkes Tiara, 3/1 Vibrance
10/1 Croi Corcra, 16/1 Bonne Derreen, 20/1 Mangan Sue
33/1 As You Do, Ask Carla, Don't Tell Allen, Eva Said No
33/1 Gaye Niniski, Good Girl Robin, Larkfield Looney
33/1  Qatar Spirit.

Maiden Hurdle 3m

The market leaders in this
Step up from 2m 4f to 3m
Both ran in the same race

THE FOLKES TIARA 2nd
PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS 3rd
Can't be much between them
But both are up 4f in trip here

June 
Maiden Hurdles (3m) 
Horses from 2m 4f or less
Coming from a hurdle race
Running this season

Those aged 5 are 0-33
Those aged 6 are 7-46

5 year olds doing this are 0-33
PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS is a 5yo

6 year olds doing this are 7-46
THE FOLKES TIARA is a 6yo

Do not see this as conclusive
But for horses going up 4f + in trip
No doubt 6 year olds are stronger
THE FOLKES TIARA may be safer
  
VIBRACE is a 6yo Mare
She comes from a 2m 3f race
Very exposed with 23 runs

Maiden hurdles over 3m +
Open to both sexes
Any time of year
Female horses
More than 10 career runs
Absent more than 18 days
Return a 0-42 record
VIBRACE the 43rd to try

Selection

THE FOLKES TIARA 11/10-5/4

Win Bet






Haydock 3.30

7/4 Queen Aminatu, 4/1 Aristobulus, 4/1 Elsals
7/1 Zulu Tracker, 9/1 Tothenines, 10/1 Emperor Caradoc
10/1 Kentucky Rose, 40/1 Barneys Gift, Cloch Nua.

3yo Handicap 7f

QUEEN AMINATU is a filly
She has to mix 63 days break
With topweight and 9st 11lbs
Top class stable and progressive
But can not be easy on this track
To concede weight and absence

Similar races show 
Horses from 6f races
Just 1 run this season
Over 2 career starts
Running within 38 days
Have a modest 1-56 record
That winner on faster ground
ARISTOBULUS has this profile
 
Against the horses
With just 1 run in a long time
EMPEROR CARADOC is one
KENTUCKY ROSE another
CLOCH NUA lacks the class
BARNEYS GIFT is rejected
Recently 66/1 in a similar race  

TOTHENINES has 3 races

ELSALS also has 3 career runs

Neither are negatives

Would rather have more here
But both possible saver bets   

ZULU TRACKER offers more

Selection

£4.00 Each Way ZULU TRACKER 8/1

£2.00 Win Bet ELSALS 4/1





  
Wexford 4.55

4/1 Presenting Cody, 11/2 Meehall, Neptunus Equester
7/1 Dalileo, 15/2 Go Battle, 10/1 Mezyan, 12/1 Where's Bunny
14/1 Crimson Chief, Greenway Machine, 16/1 I Don't Get It
16/1  Steelers Appeal, 16/1 Trans Wood, 25/1 Garrai Phaidin.

Handicap Chase 2m 4f

Several fall into weak categories

Did not do enough last time
Lacking a fit profile
Coming here on the bounce
I would avoid all these horses
Who one of these categories apply

25/1 Garrai Phaidin 
16/1 Trans Wood
14/1 Greenway Machine
10/1 Mezyan
16/1 Steelers Appeal
16/1 I Don't Get It

CRIMSOM CHIEF is a 10yo
Not running great numbers
WHERES BUNNY looks unsafe
She may want dropping in trip

NEPTUNE EQUESTER won recently
Definite positives in his profile
But he was only 20/1 when he won
He is a low rated horse off 81
So little backclass to fall back on
Have to worry about his class

DALILEO has no chase form
Looks too exposed on all codes
I DON'T GET IT the same issue

Shortlisting 2

PRESENTING CODY

MEEHALL

MEEHALL ran well last time
Tried to win from the front
That was a big field chase debut 
May have done too much in front
This track may suit him better

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet MEEHALL 9/2-5/1

£2.00 Win Bet PRESENTING CODY 7/2





Cork 6.40

11/8 Geocentric, 5/2 Gustavus Weston, 4/1 Prettiest
9/2 Pirate Jenny, 16/1 Majestic Colt, 100/1 Chocquinto.

Midsummer Sprint Stakes

Listed race 5f

Going to ignore one angle
Female horses aged 3-4-5
Have a 0-29 record in this
Not comfortable with that
So many fancied 3yo fillies

Two two outsiders are out
PIRATE JENNY has 3 runs
Every past winner had 5 or more
She looks a bit inexperienced
GUSTAVUS WESTON is a 6yo
Was tempted by him on profile
But he is very stoutly bred
All his wins come over further
He's been outpaced at 5f before
Just felt 5f is not his ideal trip
PRETTIEST has a similar issue
By Dubawi out of a Galileo mare
This could be on the sharp side

Unoriginal but at this trip
The favourite looks the one
Last years winner prepped
In the same race as she did

Selection

GEOCENTRIC 5/4

Win Bet








FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 



Wimbledon

Womens - Iga Swiatek 6/4

Mens - Novak Djokovic 10/11

Missed the boat here

Fancy the above two strongly
But prices are just too short

Iga Swiatek was 3/1 last week
Had her in a losing win treble
Bit annoyed with myself here
Should have done a big single
But that price is now long gone
No interest in betting her now
 
Djokovic should win Wimbledon
Nadal has little chance this year
Carlos Alcaraz has no experience
Played about 11 games on grass
His biggest achievement so far
Probably mowing his own lawn
Felix Auger - Aliassime a danger
Possibly the biggest in the field
But this looks Djokovic's year

But I've missed the boat

The double around 4/1-9/2

Probably will win but it's short

No plans to play ante post






Royal Ascot

Generic Statistics

These are in progress
No need to release yet
May find more as I go


This will be a new one
 
Royal Ascot
All races over 5f 6f 7f
Since 2009
Horses aged 4 
Over 13 Lifetime runs
Have a 0-114 record in them 
One horse who will fail this

ROHAAN

Last years Wokingham winner 

He could defend his title again

Had an early look at the race


Ante Post (Part 1)


Saturday June 18th

Wokingham Stakes 

8/1 Fresh 10/1 Silver Samurai 10/1 Blackrod
14/1 Quarantine Dreams 14/1 Jumby 16/1 Chairmanoftheboard
16/1 Above 16/1 First Folio 16/1 Deodar 16/1 Tabdeed
16/1 Chiefofchiefs 20/1 Summerghand 20/1 Bielsa
20/1 Brad The Brief 20/1 Popmaster 20/1 Asjad
20/1 Prince Lancelot 20/1 City Walk 20/1 Mr Wagyu
25/1 Air Raid 25/1 Magical Spirit 25/1 Dubai Hope
25/1 Dubai Station 25/1 Stone of Destiny 25/1 Batwan
25/1 Rohaan 25/1 Gulliver 25/1 Measure of Magic
25/1 Urban Beat 25/1 Adaay To Remember 25/1 She Do
25/1 Zargun 25/1 Full Authority 25/1 Warrior Brave
25/1 Mise Le Meas 25/1 Shine So Bright 25/1 Significantly
25/1 Commanche Falls 25/1 Fivethousandtoone 25/1 Ejtilaab 
25/1 Nationwide 25/1 Premier Power 25/1 Tanmawwy 
25/1 Raatea 25/1 Lampang 25/1 Inver Park 33/1 Ropey Guest
33/1 Volatile Analyst 33/1 Fine Wine33/1 Alligator Alley
33/1 Ernie's Valentine 33/1 Nomadic Empire
  
6f Handicap

ROHAAN won this in 2021
He was the first 3yo winner
He fails a new generic statistic

Royal Ascot
All races over 5f 6f 7f
Since 2009
Horses aged 4 
Over 13 Lifetime runs
Have a 0-114 record in them 

ROHAAN will be a negative
Several other 4 year olds
Also fail this new statistic

SIGNIFICANTLY 25/1
POPMASTER 25/1
NOMADIC EMPIRE 33/1
APPOLO ONE 33/1
MEASURE OF MAGIC 25/1

Last year 

We had a 3yo winner

I do not see any 3 year old in this
Who will be qualified to take part
So we are unlikely to see another

ABOVE around 16/1
Also looks unlikely to get a run

MR LUPTON may not get in
He is too old as a 9 year old
I am against the oldest horses
Especially the exposed horses
Who do not have recent races
 
Go back to 1997
Past renewals of this race 
Horses with over 25 runs
Absent more than 14 days
Have an awful  0-144 record 
The following horses fail this

MR LUPTON
CHIEFOFCHIEFS
SUMMERGHAND
GULLIVER
URBAN BEAT
GOOD EFFORT
BATWAN
AIR RAID
CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD

Horses aged 6 or more 
With over 18 career starts 
Absent more than 14 days
Have a poor 0-145 record  
The following horses fail this
 
BIELSA
SHINE SO BRIGHT
MAGICAL SPIRIT
EJTILAAB

BRAD THE BRIEF is topweight
Can not have him rated 117 here
No Royal Ascot handicap before
Went to a horse rated over 112

Go back to 2001
Royal Ascot Handicaps
Horses aged 4 or more
Rated 108 or higher
Absent more than 20 days
Have a 0-61 record in them
BRAD THE BRIEF fails this
ROYAL COMMANDO does

COACHELLO rated 106
Impossible to like 6 months off
VOLATILE ANALYST similar
As a 5yo with a 64 days absence
And a tough handicap mark too

QUARRANTINE DREAMS

Well backed and fancied

He is a 4 year old
Only has 7 career starts
Comes from a 5f race too

Class 2 Handicaps (6f)
Any time of year
Since 2005 
Male 4 year olds
Coming from a 5f race
With under 13 runs
Have a 0-86 record  
QUARRANTINE DREAMS fails this

Not been a good race
For lightly raced 4 year olds 

Horses aged 4
Under 11 career starts
Have a 0-66 record in this
The following horses fail this

QUARRANTINE DREAMS  
ASJAD
ADAAY TO REMEMBER
METHOD
SHE DO
VENTURA TORMENTA

BLACKROD fancied does too
He has raced just 9 times now
Have to see later about all this
 
Horses from 5f races
Have a miserable record
Those beaten over a length
Have a 0-101 record in this
FINE WINE will fail this stat
MASTER MATT will as well
TABDEED will and as a 7yo
He is hard to like from a 5f race

Horses with over 12 runs
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-77 record in this
LAMPANG fails this angle

Will leave it there 

Pick the race up another day

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