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Preview Selections 

Pontefract 4.15
£7.00 Win Bet Love Is Golden 100/30-3/1
£3.00 Win Bet Highwaygrey 5/2

Pontefract 4.45
£5.00 Win Bet Glenartney 9/2-5/1
£5.00 Win Bet Lady Hayes 9/2-5/1

Pontefract 5.15 
£4.25 Each Way Flint Hill 7/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Kaizer7/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Pontefract 6.45
Ghathanfar 9/2 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5







Today's Message       


 
Calmer waters today

Sunday Pontefract message  

Both the National Hunt cards 
Have complicated small fields
Not in my National Hunt zone

Pontefract the only card
That has any substance to it

The meeting always starts late
Something about coal miners
Having enough time to arrive

The first and last previews
Are the more forensic today
Does not mean they are best
And non runners are in play

Just want to close the week
Then just get back to normal 

  



Today's Best Bet

Pontefract 6.45

GHATHANFAR 9/2

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5







Underneath The Message    

 
Not having a bet myself

Happy with all selections

But want to distance myself

From betting after a long week

My best bet in the 6.45pm

Was partly chosen on the price
As it should hold up well enough
Something I can't say for all bets








Yesterday's Review  

Ascot results suggested yesterday
It was revenge of the higher draws
The first 5 home in the Wokingham
Were drawn high in 19 29 31 28 27

The other big field races yesterday
All the winners were drawn higher

Drawn 12 of 13
Drawn 14 of 15
Drawn 20 of 24
Drawn 13 of 14
 
FRESH was killed by his draw in 7
Eventually came over to stands side
But by then he was back in the field
He stayed on well eventually into 9th
But the draw killed his chances really
He ran well with that in consideration
But was never involved in the finish

The message finished L P P L L W
Could spin it as better than it looks
Highfield Princess finished in sixth
Some firms were offering 6 places
But I've put it down as a losing race
Guilded was a winning saver at 11/1
May have put that down as a winner
As he drifted out to a massive price
The majority would have used betfair
So seems fairer to say that we placed
We managed the 1st 2nd 3rd in that
The statistics used worked out great

The split stake bet in the Chesham
Alfred Munnings as the saver horse
Was a very underwhelming result
We were on the lower drawn horses
Who basically went off much to fast
Burnt themselves out too quickly
Leading to an unraced 40/1 winner
The winner will be beaten next time
He might not win now for 2 seasons 
Star Girls Aalmal placed each way
Dancila was an easy winner in finale
But it was never going to be enough
Losing message without a staked bet
Would not say it was a big disaster 
Several big priced high drawn shocks
We were unlikely to have found many
And given the end of one heavy week
Not going to beat myself up about it





PROFILES & PREVIEWS    
   


Pontefract 4.15

7/2 Mackenzie Rose, 5/1 El Picador, 6/1 Love Is Golden
7/1 Highwaygrey, 8/1 Restorer, 9/1 Bollin Margaret, 10/1 Taj Alola
12/1 Dungar Glory, Freddy Robinson, 16/1 Visibility
20/1 Piecederesistance.

3yo Handicap 10f

MACKENZIE ROSE is a filly
Won last time improving figures
But she is going up in class 
And has been drawn 11 of 11

Sharp early bend over this trip
Horses drawn that high struggle
As they get cut off on 1st bend

Pontefract 10f 
Horses drawn 11 
They are 1-87 since 2012
They are 2-115 since 2009
Very few win drawn that high
MACKENZIE ROSE fails this

FREDDY ROBINSON looks risky
Going up in trip with 1 run this year
DUNGAR GLORY a filly up in trip
Far from certain to relish this far

PIERCEDERESISTANCE a 4yo
He faces 135 days off the track 
And not likely to be progressive
TAJ ALOLA ran only 15 days ago
Beaten much too far for comfort
VISABILITY does have a fit profile
But modest figures too low for comfort

BOLLIN MARGARET is a mare
She will probably win a few races
When she is ready maybe over 12f
May need a couple more runs first

RESTORER is 10 years old
Not a good age in these races
When you factor in other variables
Like a heavy recent defeat over 12f
None aged 8 or more have overcome it
All 83 that tried in this sort of class

EL PICADOR is a 6 year old
He comes here winning over 1m 4f

Go back to 2008
10f Handicaps
Class 5 or higher
Any time of the year
Horses aged 6 or more
Winning 12f races last time
Running within 3 months
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-44 record in them
EL PICADOR has profile

Shortlist

LOVE IS GOLD 100/30-72
HIGHWAYMAN 9/4-5/2


LOVE IS GOLD  is a 4yo
Exposed and a big weight
But he has the fittest profile
His numbers are good enough
He was badly drawn at York
Epsom was excusable next time
Chester last time when second
Would be enough to go close here

HIGHWAYMAN an exposed 6yo

Looks very well handicapped
Last year rated between 85-89
Today he has dropped to 76
Having had excuses this season

Has come down the weights a lot
His record over course/distance
Very creditable W W W W 4 4 2
That's reflected in the market


Choosing from 2 options

LOVE IS GOLD each way is one

The other would be a win bet
With a saver on Highwayman

Decided on a win and saver bet
HIGHWAYMAN is rather short
But has had excuses all season
Including twice not staying 12f
Not the best of draws in stall 8
But very easily capable of winning

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet LOVE IS GOLD 3/1-100/30

£3.00 Win Bet HIGHWAYMAN 9/4








Pontefract 4.45

13/8 Bartzella, 3/1 Glenartney, 4/1 Lady Hayes
9/2 By Starlight, 25/1 Goldie Hawk, 33/1 The Flying Ginger
50/1 Vindobala.

Pontefract Castle Stakes

Listed race 12f for fillies

Messy race with 7 runners
Should in theory involve 4

4yo BARTZELLA with 4 runs
4yo GLENARTNEY with 8 runs
5yo BY STARLIGHT with 10 runs
4yo LADY HAYES with 11 runs

Horses aged 4
Have the best recent record in this

BY STARLIGHT is 5 years old
She's raced just once this year
No horses older than 4 years old
Have won with just 1 run this year
Not a negative but neither a match

GLENARTNEY has 2 recent runs
LADY HAYES has 2 recent runs

Both 4 year olds
They could have a little advantage
Over the two others on the shortlist
Who have raced once this season

BARTZELLA has 1 run this season
She has only had 4 career starts now

No horse with under 6 runs
Have won this with recent races
They were all seasonal debutants

BARTZELLA fails this angle

May June July
Pattern races over 12f
Horses aged 4
Under 5 career runs
Just 1 run this season
Absent over 16 days
Have a 0-33 record in them
BARTZELLA fails this angle
Hard to know if it's significant
Obviously not a good profile

Marginal choices
But I would take the two horses
Who have had an extra recent run
They are both bigger prices as well

Shortlist

GLENARTNEY  
LADY HAYES  

If we bet both horses at 5/1
We are getting 2/1 either wins

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet GLENARTNEY 9/2-5/1

£5.00 Win Bet LADY HAYES 9/2-5/1 







Pontefract 5.15

6/1 Yasmin From York, 13/2 Overhaugh Street
7/1 Haizoom 7/1 Twilight Prince, 9/1 The Rutland Rebel
9/1 Flint Hill 9/1 Kaizer, 12/1 Byron Hill, 12/1 Captain Haddock
16/1 Rukwa, Tigerten, 40/1 Diocletian, Uncle Henry.

Handicap 2m 2f

Got a few negatives

Need to get these right

Then choose the right alternative

THE RUTLAND REBEL is a 6yo
His sire has no winners over 17f +
With just 1 run in 206 days now
I would see him as underraced

BYRON HILL is in the same boat
Having raced once in 268 days 

Pontefract 2m 2f races
Any time of the season
Since 2006
Horses drawn 9 or higher
Have a 2-86 record in them

CAPTAIN HADDOCK in stall 14
Has a bad draw with topweight too

HAIZOOM is drawn in stall 12
Don't want a 4yo filly drawn high

Pontefract 2m 2f staying handicaps
Any time of year since 2007
Fillies aged 4 are 0-17 in them
HAIZOOM fails this statistic
Felt there were safer choices

RUKWA an 8yo not drawn too well
Coming from a heavy hurdle loss

TIGERTEN doesn't offer enough
Was recently 33/1 in a weaker race

TWILIGHT PRINCE is a 4yo
Horses aged 4 can and do win
But are just 1-25 now since 2005
And this horse has sire issues

If you look at his sire Twilight Son
His runners over 1m 4f and more
Have a winless 0-26 record so far
He recently placed at Bath 2m 1f 
This distance is 12 seconds more
Have my doubts he will get home

DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO a 9yo
Has to come up from a 1m 7f race
Has to defy 36 days absence too

Go back to 1997

Handicaps over 2m 1f +
Class 3 and lower grade
Run any time of the year 

Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from 1m 7f or less
Absent more than 26 days
Have a 0-26 record in them
Not many have tried to win
But none won in 25 + years 
DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO fails this
He is now a non runner

YASMIN FROM YORK a 6yo mare
She comes up from a Class 6 race
Past renewals since 1998 show up
Horses coming from Class 6 races
Have a 0-28 record in this race
She is bottomweight rated just 56
Her figures and modest enough
Have to question her class here
 
Shortlist

FLINT HILL 7/1

OVERHAUGH STREET 7/1

KAIZER 7/1

Have to take a guess here 


Selection

£4.25 Each Way FLINT HILL 7/1
 
£1.50 Win Bet KAIZER 7/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4





Pontefract 6.45

5/1 Corinthia Knight, 13/2 Il Bandito, 7/1 Music Society
7/1 Dream Composer, Eilean Dubh, 8/1 Ghathanfar
10/1 Bergerac, 12/1 Aberama Gold, 14/1 Manigordo
16/1 If You Dare, 20/1 Golden Apollo, Lezardrieux
20/1 Margub, Paws For Thought, 25/1 Recall The Show
25/1 Tashgheel, 33/1 Dark Shot.

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-90

EILEAN DUBH has topweight
Can not accept him drawn in 1

Pontefract 6f handicaps
Run since 2015
Any kind of race all year
No horses won drawn 16 or more
EILEAN DUBH fails this draw stat
RECALL THE SHOW fails this too
IF YOU DARE a bad drawn in 15
No horse older than 2 has won here
Drawn so high and he lacks positives
 
Go back to 1997
Pontefract 6f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 6 or more
Drawn in stall 13 or higher
Have a 0-77 record in them
MUSIC SOCIETY fails this stat
MARGUB also fails and lacks a run

TASHGHEEL is absent too long
LEZARDRIEUX hasn't hit form yet
DARK SHOT a 9yo not running well
PAWS FOR THOUGHT is resistible
GOLDEN APOLLO is an 8 year old
Not enough positives to commit too

IL BANDITO won last time out
Not a safe profile with 37 days off
Considering he has had 16 runs now

Similar races in June show
Horses aged 4
Winning last time out
Over 8 career starts
Absent more than 21 days
Return a 0-43 record in them
IL BANDITO fails this angle
MANIGORDO is exposed
Going up in class for this race
Never won in this class before
Not a negative but prefer others

BERGERAC is a 4yo
Not for me drawn in stall 11
With a nasty looking weight too

If you go back to 2007
Every 6f race at this track
Horses aged under 5 years old
Drawn 10 or higher
Carrying 9st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-34 record in them 
BERGERAC fails this angle

So do the following horses
PAWS FOR THOUGHT
IF YOU DARE
EILEAN DUBH


Shortlist
 
CORINTHIA KNIGHT well treated
Could easily win this race even aged 7
Only objection is price is a bit short

DREAM COMPOSER on a hat trick
Takes a small step up in class here
One of my concerns in committing
Stall 1 could be a help or hindrance
If he is not quickly away from that stall
It could lead to later traffic issues

ABERAMA GOLD has a chance
Hard to catch right but not ruled out
 
GHATHANFAR is drawn well in 4
He has the shortest absence in this
With 3 runs in the last 20 days
Fittest profile in the race as well
He has to be part of the staking here
But he has never won in this class
Never won off his current rating
Three is a danger of overating him
But he has placed and gone well
Many times in races as good as this
With 5 places I like him each way

Selection

GHATHANFAR 9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

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