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Preview Selections 
 


Ballinrobe 4.30  
£4.50 Each Way Ladiam 8/1-15/2 
£1.00 Win Bet Turkestan10/1-11/1
 
Ballinrobe 7.00
For The Cause 13/2-7/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5






Today's Message



Low expectations today

Last in a run of messages
Tomorrow will be a rest day
Got some hospital stuff on
So could not swap days off



This current run ends today
In a whimper with 2 meetings
Musselburgh has tiny fields
Ballinrobe an evening card

Covering just two previews
With limited choice available



Both previews at Ballinrobe

Good to soft ground
 
Work that mystery out 

Both selections today

Speculative bets in open races

Hard to choose which is best

Will go with the maiden hurdle




Message Choice

Ballinrobe 4.30 
 
£4.50 Each Way Ladiam 8/1-15/2

£1.00 Win Bet Turkestan10/1-11/1






  

Underneath The Message


Unlikely to have a bet myself
If I do small interest bets only

In both races
We are more likely to lose
If the best bet returns stakes
And the other race is a loser
I will not see that as a failure
More likely to lose than win today


Yesterday's Summary
 
Felt I read the message well
RED AZALEA sort of banker
Did win easily returning 8/13
But we went for bigger prices
The two possible best bets
Were both placed each way
SHAWS BRIDGE came fourth
His jockey gets credit for that
Well beaten but a small profit
CALLIOPE was the best bet
He ran well finished 3rd place
Annoying he shortened a lot
He was backed from 8/1-5/1
Then the favourite pulled out
And he shortened again to 3/1
Was not easy to get that 8/1
But it never looked in trouble
And we got the place returns




PROFILES & PREVIEWS
  

Ballinrobe 4.30

9/2 Vocito, 5/1 David Garrick
6/1 Prince Of Verona, 6/1 Viceregent
13/2 Ladiam, 10/1 Telecon, 12/1 Complete Fantasy
12/1 Turkestan, 14/1 Luna Skye, Sycamore Grey
16/1 Firstman, 25/1 Dark Matter, 50/1 Outa Karney
50/1 Prayer Moon, Realta Geal.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 1f

DAVID GARRICK is a 5yo
Could win but is a bit short

My problem is a lack of runs
He's raced once in 294 days
He is exposed with 21 races

July 
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Horses with over 14 runs
Just 1 run in over 6 months
Running with the last 5 weeks
Have a 0-39 record in them
DAVID GARRICK has this profile
Might win just not safe enough

VOCITO has questions too

He is only 4yo
He has 56 days off
Yet is also very exposed
He has had 23 career runs

Go back to 2008
June to December
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
With over 4 runners
Horses aged 4
Over 18 career runs
Over 4 hurdle races
Absent over 29 days
Have a 0-30 record
VOCITO shares this profile

Both the above profiles
Are quite complicated
But they are suggesting
Exposed horses like those
With lots of previous runs
Are less likely to overcome
Their lack of recent races

PRINCE OF VERONA a 4yo
Can be described as exposed
He has had 5 hurdle races
His best may well be enough
But lots of speed in his pedigree
Usa sire has no hurdle winners
All 15 so far to try have failed

TELECON has no hurdle form
SYCAMORE GREY has none
Neither would be first choice
COMPLETE FANTASY is not
With several months absence
VICEREGENT could be the one
But one poor run in 146 days

TURKESTAN has a chance
Hard to know what form he is in

LADIUM is a mare
Some have achieved more
But she is fit and in form
Comes here with momentum
She may be the value each way

Selection
 
£4.50 Each Way LADIUM 8/1-15/2

£1.00 Win Bet TURKESTAN 10/1-11/1







Ballinrobe 7.00

4/1 Dalileo, Natural Look, 5/1 For The Cause
6/1 Glenmalure Lodge, 8/1 Hillsin, 12/1 Captain Court
12/1 White Quarry Rose, 16/1 The Holmeister
25/1 Menindee, 25/1 Myladyrose, 25/1 Roccorionach
25/1 Sir Rock, Winning Rascal, 33/1 Back To Bataan
33/1 Ballycastle Brat, 33/1 Force Of Forces.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

7 Past renewals
33 similar races in July

Older horses dominate
Horses aged 5 are just 3-78
Those with over 11st are 0-51
SIR ROCK not suitable aged 5
None of the 5yo's look enticing
HILLSIN is best left as a 4yo

Several look potentially unfit
WHITE QUARRY ROSE a mare
Has raced once in 205 days

MYLADYROSE is underraced

Against the long absent horses
CAPTAIN COURT off 495 days
BACK TO BATAAN 305 days off

MENINDEE is a 6yo mare
She ran ok just 6 days ago
But she's raced once in 183 days
WINNING RASCAL looks wrong

DALILEO is not a negative
But very exposed with 46 runs
When you factor in a big weight

Most workable profile
Based on past renewals

Horses aged 6 or more
Under 19 career starts
Running this season
Starting <20/1 last time

The following pass

GLENMALURE LODGE
FOR THE CAUSE
THE HOLMEISTER
NATURAL LOOK

GLENMALURE LODGE a mare
Has raced just once in 199 days

NATURAL LOOK has the figures
But is a mare coming from 2 miles

June to December 
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 5f +
Any class of race
Mares aged 6 or more
Coming from 2m hurdles
Under 15 lifetime starts
Running within 41 days
Have a 0-71 record in them
NATURAL LOOK fails that

Shortlist
 
THE HOLMEISTER 10/1-11/1

FOR THE CAUSE 13/2-7/1


Selection

FOR THE CAUSE 13/2-7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  




Statistics below

For two Saturday races







Ante Post Statistics

Saturday July 23rd

Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon

International Stakes

7f Handicap (Class 2)
 
9/1 Dark Shift, 9/1 Fresh, 10/1 Jumby, 12/1 Air To Air
12/1 Bless Him, 14/1 Montassib, 14/1 Saleymm, 14/1 Chiefofchiefs
16/1 Inver Park, 16/1 Tactical, 16/1 Deodar, 16/1 King Zain
16/1 Alflaila, 16/1 Ropey Guest, 16/1 Find, 16/1 Boosala
16/1 Tempus, 16/1 First Folio, 20/1 Noble Dynasty, 20/1 Vafortino
20/1 Mutasarref, 20/1 Koy Koy, 20/1 Tacarib Bay, 20/1 Red Mirage
20/1 Symbolize, 20/1 Star Of Orion, 20/1 Asjad, 25/1 Rhoscolyn
25/1 Northern Express, 25/1 Stunning Beauty, 25/1 River Nymph
25/1 Aratus, 25/1 The Attorney, 25/1 Accidental Agent, 25/1 Lion Tower
25/1 Dance Fever, 25/1 Coachello, 33/1 Witch Hunter, 33/1 Escobar
33/1 Orbaan, 33/1 Documenting, 33/1 Ascot Adventure, 33/1 Gubbass
33/1 Lord Of The Lodge, 33/1 Gisburn, 33/1 Tomfre, 33/1 Morghom
40/1 Biggles, 40/1 Fools Rush In, 40/1 Fox Champion, 40/1 Oh This Is Us
50/1 Titan Rock, 50/1 Oo De Lally, 50/1 Darkness, 50/1 Top Secret
50/1 Maywake, 66/1 Tammani, 66/1 Mums Tipple, 66/1 Raising Sand
66/1 Persuasion, 66/1 Eagleway, 66/1 Cold Stare, 66/1 Master Zoffany
66/1 Tamaska, 80/1 I'm A Gambler, 100/1 Zip, 100/1 Spirit Of Light
100/1 Mykonos St John, 

Past winners
Official Ratings 

106 95 103 100 90 100 103 95 
95 99 89 100 99 104 88 97 105
 
The Draw

Recent  renewals
Draw of 1-2-3-4

04 15 17 21
19 18 20 12
21 23 27 26
11 18 16 29
14 26 17 20
14 22 2 6

Middle high seem best
Since the stalls renumbered
Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
Have a 2-87 record in this race

Horses aged under 5
Drawn 12 or lower
Have a 1-54 record since 2011
That winner was last years race
 
Horses aged 3
Have a 1-56 record 
That winner had 7st 12lbs
Do not score well in this

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a poor 2-147 record
Those who last time out
Were beaten over 3 lengths
Have winless 0-93 record 
    
Horses from Listed/ Group races
Have a 0-61 record since 2001
 
Horses coming from 6f of shorter
Have a 3-94 record since 2000 
2 of the 3 ran in the Wokingham 

Horses from 6f races
Winning last time are 0-14
Aged 6 or more are 0-29
With over 9st weight are 0-25
Beaten over 5 lengths are 0-36
   
Longest absent winner 38 days
Those absent longer are 0-56 
  
Horses with over 10 runs
Need 2 or more runs in 12 weeks
 
No horse won after a heavy defeat
Those beaten over 15 lengths 0-33
 
Claiming riders
With 5lbs or more allowance 
Have a 0-45 record in this race
    
Horses with 9st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-14 record in the race

Horses with 9st 3lbs or more
Have a worrying 3-80 record
All 3 came from Royal Ascot
Finishing 2nd 3rd 5th in a handicap
They were rated 101 103 104

Horses with 8st 8lbs or less
Have a 1-89 record since 2011
 
Best trial race the Bunbury Cup
7 past winners came from there
Including 3 of the last 7 winners

3 winners came from the Hunt Cup
2 winners from the Buckingham

Horses from York
Running 14 days ago
Have a 0-20 record in this

Horses from Class 3 or lower
Have a negative 2-92 record
The only winners dropped in trip
And both came from Newmarket

Horses from Class 3 or lower
Those aged 5 or more 0-43
Those absent over 3 weeks 0-39
Those with 8st 6lbs + were 0-27
Those from 7f or shorter 0-73






Ante Post Statistics

Saturday July 23rd

York 2.40

Sky Bet Dash  

6f Handicap

18 past renewals
  
Past winners
Official Ratings 

95 87 96 94 90 99 96 93 100 
100 105 91 103 96 94 87 107 
  
Horses from 5f
Have a poor 2-77 record
Those aged 4 were 0-20
Horses from 5f
Running within 28 days
Have a 0-54 record
Both winners from 5f
Ran at Newcastle last time
In the 5f Gosforth Cup
Both unplaced in that race 

Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 1-26 record in this

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 2-61 record in this 

Horses aged 3 are 2-19
They both had 8 career starts
They both dropped in distance

All 18 winners ran within 35 days
Those that did not were 0-35

Horses with over 15 runs
Having 1-2-3 runs that season
Have a poor 1-63 record in this

Horses who last time out
Started over 20/1 in that race
Have a 0-51 record in this race

Last time out winners
With 9 or more career runs
Have a 0-28 record in this race

Horses aged 4 or more
Coming from listed/group races
Have a 0-15 record in this race

Horses from Class 3 or lower
Have a weak 1-61 record in this
That winner had a 2 day absence
And had the fittest profile that day

Horses drawn 13 or more
Have a 1-71 record in this race
 
Got some Generic Statistics

That should apply to this race

Will cover them later this week

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