5 Previews 
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Preview Selections
 
Goodwood 1.50
£5 Win Bet Zoffee 7/1-8/1
£5 Place Bet Super Superjack 4/5

Goodwood 3.00
£6.00 Win Bet Blue For You 9/1
£3.00 Win Bet Noble Dynasty 5/2
£1.00 Win Bet Eilean Dubh 16/1
 
Goodwood 3.35 
£4.25 Each Way Clarendon House 16/1-18/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Acklam Express 6/1

Goodwood 4.45
£8.00 Win Bet  Silencer 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Kaasib 8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Felix Natalis 7/1-8/1 
 
Goodwood 5.20
Omniscient 9/4 
Win Bet




Today's Message
 
Staying with Goodwood 

Wanted two more previews 
But I just got lost in the fog
Galway too time consuming
Lost time on the all weather
That has no place being on

Timing was rotten today

Prioritising Saturday instead
Return to the account there

Not expecting many winners
With bets 7/1 9/1 16/1 9/1
We might not get any at all
My best bet runs in the finals

 


Message Choice 
 
Goodwood 5.20

OMNISCIENT 9/4 

Win Bet






Underneath The Message 
     
   
Goodwood 5.20

Omniscient 9/4 

Going each way myself

If I can get 5/2 on Betfair

That price available now

£20 Each Way








Yesterday's Summary

Classy little message yesterday
Said despite the best bet losing
Just 5 races finishing  P P W P L
Started off with two bets placed
Messy staking but effective too
Prairie Falcon was a 14/1 winner
My angles take the credit for that
Jesse Evans ran a brilliant race
Looked a winner went odds on
Mowed down by a 10yo veteran
Frustrating but ran his heart out
HEAT AND DUST the best bet
Decided not to go account bet
Which turned out to be sensible
She ran very well finishing 2nd
Missed the break came from last
Just could not catch her danger
Maybe he got a first run on ours
Happy with my stakes each way 
I lose £30 from a stake of £120
If she won I'd have made £150
So I was getting 5/1 the horse
Once it was certain she placed
Ran really well but just second
Winner got the run of the race
Overall results and 5 previews
Were accurate and well staked
Best bet losing always a shame
But thought it was decent effort
 
 






PROFILES & PREVIEWS   



Goodwood 1.50

11/2 Reshoun, 6/1 Solent Gateway
13/2 Super Superjack 7/1 Make My Day, 7/1 Mellow Magic
7/1 Zoffee, 15/2 Withhold, 10/1 Hydroplane, Master Milliner
11/1 Sea Appeal, 25/1 Baasem, 33/1 Arabescato
33/1 Author's Dream, 40/1 Sophar Sogood
66/1 Shirbo.
  
Handicap 2m 4f

Marathon staying handicap

RESHOUN is topweight
He is also an 8 year old
 
Horses aged 7 or more
With 9st or more
Have a 0-37 record in this 
RESHOUN fails this angle
WITHOLD also fails it too
Happy to oppose all 9yo's

Opposing the bottomweights
None of these offer enough

Horses from 1m 6f or shorter
Have won this race a few times
Horses coming from 14f or less
Running in the previous 19 days
Have a 0-42 record in this race 
SEA APPEAL one that fails this

BAASEM looks underraced
MASTER MILLINER is unsafe
Doubtful stayer sired by Helmet

MAKE MY DAY ran 45 days ago
He comes from the Ascot Stakes 
Horses from that race were 0-30
That would probably be a concern 

SOLENT GATEWAY is from a sire
Yet to get a winner over 2m or more
Not convinced about his stamina

HYDROPLANE is respected
But the long history of this race
Show horses aged 6 or more
Winning last time out
Are 0-30 trying to follow that up
HYDROPLANE fails this 0-30 stat
RESHOUN also has this problem

Shortlist
  
SUPER SUPERJACK
MELLOW MAGIC
ZOFFEE 

MELLOW MAGIC is a 4yo filly
We have had a couple winning
She would be my third choice

Don't want an each way bet
Going win bet and saver bet

Both horses
Are coming off career bests

SUPER SUPERJACK is a 5yo
He faces 37 days absence here 
Another not guaranteed to stay
But if he does he has every chance
His figures are improving every run
Decided to make him a place saber

ZOFFEE is an exposed 6 year old
Will he stay 20f sired by Zoffany 
You can argue the same for many
Like that his 2 lifetime best figures
Both came on his last two races


Selection

£5 Win Bet ZOFFEE 7/1-8/1

£5 Place Bet SUPER SUPERJACK 4/5









Goodwood 3.00

4/1 Noble Dynasty, 13/2 Shining Blue
8/1 Jimi Hendrix, 10/1 Sinjaari 11/1 Saleymm
12/1 Rebel Territory, 12/1 The Turpinator
16/1 Blue For You, Eilean Dubh, 20/1 Austrian Theory
20/1 Bolthole, 20/1 Lawful Command, 20/1 Ouzo
25/1 Escobar, 25/1 Positive, 25/1 Revich
25/1 Rhoscolyn, Young Fire, 33/1 Fast Medicine
33/1 Orbaan, 33/1 Shelir.
 
Golden Mile

High Class Handicap (8f)

Worth bearing in mind 
Every winner since 2011
Was drawn under stall 11

Horses drawn 11 or more
Have a 0-87 record since
 
All Goodwood 8f races
Since the 2011 renumbering  
Horses drawn 16 or more
Have a 0-54 record in them
The following all affected

SHELIR drawn 22
JIMI HENDRIX drawn 21
SHINING BLUE drawn 20
ESCOBAR drawn 19
RHOSCOLYN drawn 18
POSITIVE drawn stall 17

Every race since 2011
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn 13 or more
Have a 0-94 record 

All the above horses fail
FAST MEDICINE does too
REVICH fails this as well

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a very poor record
The only one that did win
Was awarded it in an inquiry
Opposing these older horses


YOUNG FINE
ORBAAN
ESCOBAR

REBEL TERRITORY is a 4yo
He won last time but 64 days ago
Thats longer than all past winners
That's going back over 25 years
POSITIVE also fails this statistic

THE TURPINATOR is up in trip
Without a run in 54 days now
Coming from a smaller stable
He looks too risky in this field
AUSTRIAN THEORY is a 3yo
No form at all in big field races
LAWFUL COMMAND is a 3yo
Never met older horses before
Trained by a very unreliable yard

Against the exposed horses
With 20 or more career runs
They rarely win this handicap
OUZO one not already rejected

Go back to 2006
Goodwood
Class 2 Handicaps
Run over 7f or more
Any time of the year
Horses aged 4
Under 10 career starts
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-75 record in them

SALEYMM fails this angle
He is a 4yo with 9st 8lbs
REBEL TERRITORY fails it
SHINING BLUE does as well

NOBLE DYNASTY does
But as it is only by 1 pound
It's in the margin or error

SINJAARI is a 6yo
Has a mark of 108 today
None have won rated 105 +
Double figure draw as well
Just made be asking too much


Shortlist

NOBLE DYNASTY is short
But could be different class

BLUE FOR YOU 

BLUE FOR YOU won 7 days ago
His last 2 runs career best figures
Every chance is 7 days off helps
The 2012-2020 winners of this
Both won 6 days before this race

EILEAN DUBH is a 4yo
If you include foreign form
He is too exposed as a 4yo
Not of you ignore foreign form
Looks like he is improving fast
He won a York last time out
BLUE FOR YOU was second
Will not be much between them

No each way

Want to accommodate 3 horses



Selection

£6.00 Win Bet EILEAN DUBH 16/1

£3.00 Win Bet NOBLE DYNASTY 5/2

£1.00 Win Bet BLUE FOR YOU 9/1 








Goodwood 3.35

7/2 Raasel, 4/1 Mitbaahy, 11/2 Equilateral
7/1 Acklam Express, 7/1 Khaadem, 7/1 Lazuli
14/1 Ponntos, 16/1 Caturra, Clarendon House
33/1 Existent, 33/1 Vertiginous.

Qatar Stakes

Group 2 race over 5f

Go back to 1998
Every winner of this race
Ran within the last 45 days
Those that did not were 0-33
VERTIGINOUS fails this
KHAADEM does off 90 days

There is a poor trial race
The Coral Charge at Sandown
Battash did win prepping there
But he is and was different class
Ignore him and the record is 0-45
Wary of horses that come from here
RAASEL won that Sandown race
MITBAAHY finished 2nd that day
Neither can be seen as negatives
But not keen on bad trial races 
MITBAAHY is a 3yo with 10 runs

Horses aged 3
Over 8 career runs
Have a 0-38 record in this

MITBAAHY fails this by 2 runs
CATURRA is a 3yo with 12 runs
He looks overexposed for his age

LAZULI is a 5 year old
Do we want him sired by Dubawi
Over the minimum distance ?
Having raced once in 161 days
Would not be my first choice
 
EQUILATERAL is a 7yo
No statistical issues with him
He is very smart on his day
But drawn on wide outside
And drifting radically as well

ACKLAM EXPRESS is a 4yo 
Historically like past 4yo winners 
Not a great draw but respected

CLARENDON HOUSE is a 4yo
Historically like past 4yo winners 
Has proven track form on side
Needs to improve not by much
But he far too big at 16/1 or more

Selection

£4.25 Each Way CLARENDON HOUSE 16/1-18/1

£1.50 Win Bet ACKLAM EXPRESS 6/1








Goodwood 4.45

5/1 Bolt Action, 13/2 Felix Natalis
7/1 Blatant, Silencer, 10/1 Gaallib, 12/1 Beautiful Eyes
12/1 California Gem, 12/1 Explicit, 12/1 Paddy's Day
14/1 Jungle Fever, 14/1 Kaasib, 14/1 Lost Angel
16/1 Land Of Summer, 20/1 Remarkable Force
25/1 Knebworth, Rumstar.
 
6f Nursery

Some of the topweights 
Have absences and wide draws
The 2017 winner lad a big weight
This angles suggests it is difficult
 
Nurseries over 5f + 6f
Class 2 Races
Any time of year 
With over 7 runners
Horses with 9st 6lbs +
Absent more than 19 days
Have a 0-56 record in them

So in large fields like this
Without a very recent run
The following all fail this

BOLT HALL
RUMSTAR
REMARKABLE FORCE
PADDYS DAY

Horses from pattern races
Have a poor 1-43 record
Several above fails this
LOST ANGEL also fails this
KNEBWORTH does as well
 
Past renewals show us
Horses drawn 10 or more
Have a 1-42 record in it
LAND OF SUMMER drawn 14
May find that hard to overcome

Every past winner
Had under 6 career runs
Horses with 6 or more 0-17
EXPLICIT has 8 races
Most exposed in the race 
More so than all past winners
BLATANT has 6 races
No past winner had as many
JUNGLE FEVER is beatable

Horses from Nurseries
That were Class 4 or lower
Won 2 renewals since 2011
Those beaten in them
Have a 0-24 record
The following fail this
KAASIB
EXPLICIT
JUNGLE FEVER 

BEAUTIFUL EYES is a filly
Beaten 6 lengths 2 days ago
May not have been enough
  
GAALIB is drawn in stall 12
That may just be a little low
I would ideally prefer stalls 4-11
  
CALIFORNIA GEM drawn 13
That is not in my is the ideal range
She is a filly as well from 5f

FELIX NATALIS won recently
But this race is 3 grades higher
Could be saver or a place bet
 
KAASIB has had excuses
Beaten in a Class 4 last time
Means he fails an earlier stat
But time will probably prove
He had an impossible task
Giving the winner so much weight
Well drawn wanted to save on him

SILENCER is interesting

First run at Salisbury
He got loose before the start
Connections subsequently said
They thought he's win on debut

2nd run in Woodcote Stakes  
Did not have a great profile there
Running just 7 days after a debut
He was not draw that well either 

3rd run he was outclassed
Beaten 4 lengths at Royal Ascot

Last time at Chester
Started odds on in 5f maiden
That's a bad draw if you miss break
He did and it cost him the race
Would have won in a few more yards
The trip was too sharp for him 

Now over 6f
With multiple excuses
He could be good enough

Richard Hannon has said

"He’s a very smart horse and I can’t 
 believe he’s still a Maiden"

SILENCER is decent value

Selection
 
£8.00 Win Bet  SILENCER 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet KAASIB 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet FELIX NATALIS 7/1-8/1






  

Goodwood 5.20

3/1 Omniscient, 4/1 Caius Chorister, 7/1 Youthful King,
8/1 Night Of Luxury, 9/1 Highland Premiere, Sheer Rocks
10/1 Sharp Combo, 11/1 Le Forban, 12/1 Knightswood
14/1 Paradias, 20/1 Cabrakan, 25/1 Ring Of Beara
40/1 John The Baptist.

3yo Handicap 1m 3f

Unusual distance

Draw stats do suggest
Horses drawn 13 or more
Have the most to prove
LE FORBAN has the worst draw

CAIUS CHORISTER is a filly
She comes here W W W W 
But those wins Class 6-5 races
This is 2 grades higher today
Raided 17lbs for her last win
She has so much more to prove
And fillies are 0-18 in this race

Want an unexposed type
Every past winner of this
Had under 9 career starts
Horses with 9 or more 0-22

HIGHLAND PREMIER fails
Looks exposed with 14 runs
YOUTHFUL KING has 11 runs
SHARP COMBO has 9 runs
More than any past winner
CABRAKAN is too exposed
RING OF BEARER topweight
Looks unsafe with 69 days off

PARADIS is not a negative
But don't see enough to like

NIGHT OF LUXURY has 9 runs
Not ideal and neither is his draw

KNIGHTSWOOD could pop up
But beaten a long way last time

SHEER ROCKS won last time
Looks a sensible saver option 

OMNISCIENT 5/2

You could argue too short
But he won only 8 days ago
Yes it was an easier race
But he won over 5 lengths
Racing Post Rating of 93
Suggest todays rating of 81
Should be well within his grasp
Hottest stable around right now

Selection

OMNISCIENT 9/4

Win Bet

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