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Preview Selections

Gowran Park 1.35 
Single Edition 10/1-12/1 
Each Way

Ascot 2.00
£4.00 Each Way Mr Trick 18/1
£1.00 Win Bet Young Fire 8/1+
£1.00 Win Bet Tomfre 10/1
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4

Ascot 2.35
£6.00 Win Bet Malakahna 3/1
£4.00 Win Bet Aggagio 6/4-13/8

Gowran Park 2.42
Unlaoised 6/1-11/2
Each Way

Gowran Park 3.17
Will You Win 8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4 

Fontwell 3.25
Mr Freedom 5/4-11/8
Win Bet 








Today's Message 
  
Far classier set of cards 
Message has responded
At least I hope that it has

It is interesting and varied
There is a F.B.A column  
Overall I like a lot about it
But many big priced bets
So have to stay realistic

Some bets need context
And are explained below

What is the best bet ?

Most likely winner is this

Fontwell 3.25
MR FREEDOM 5/4-11/8
Win Bet


Would be a legitimate bet
But he is on the short side
And I am not betting him

Going with a riskier bet 
Not so worried if this loses 
Main focus is on Saturday





Today's Best Bet


Gowran Park 3.17

WILL YOU WIN 8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4 









Underneath The Message 


Gowran Park 1.35 
Single Edition 10/1-12/1 
Each Way

Quirky little bet here
Not too sure what we have
Depends on the opposition

Suggested as an each way
I could have split staked it
Half stakes to win at 10/1 +
With half stakes elsewhere
Wee Willie Nail as a win bet
Or a place bet Art of Science
There were staking options
Going each way in the end


Personal Bet
Single Edition 10/1-12/1 
£10 Win 


Ascot 2.00
£4.00 Each Way Mr Trick 18/1
£1.00 Win Bet Young Fire 8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Tomfre 10/1

Interesting Amateur rider race
Despite a lack of past renewals
And some rather ugly staking
Taken a chance on an outsider

There are 2 x £1 saver bets
Could have gone with just 1
But as a place saver bet £3
But it's complicated enough
Feel I am on the right lines
But we will need staking luck

Personal Bet

Mr Trick 18/1
£12 Win Bet
£4 Place Bet



Ascot 2.35
£6.00 Win Bet Malakahna 3/1
£4.00 Win Bet Aggagio 6/4-13/8

Hate the race and preview
At some point I had a plan
But non runners and prices
Spoilt it and now I hate this




Gowran Park 2.42
Unlaoised 6/1-11/2
Each Way

In this race and the next
I am just following race stats
Both divisions of the same race
Marginally prefer division 2
Not bothered about a bet here
Rather see how the angles do





Gowran Park 3.17
Will You Win 8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4 
 
Following race stats
Risky selection as a mare
With a heavy recent defeat
But she has some substance
And will find this much easier



Want to bet her
But win only and small

Personal Bet

Will You Win 8/1 

£15 Win  





Fontwell 3.25
Mr Freedom 5/4-11/8
Win Bet

Originally

I was split staking this

£8 Win Mr Freedom 5/4-11/8
£2 Saver Hill Station at 5/1

That may be a better option
But decided to have a win bet

Most likely winner today
Not going to bet myself
I would like 7/4 each way 
But that radical and unlikely 






Yesterday's Summary 
  
Message was disrupted a bit
Made me cautious with stakes
Messages are difficult enough
Without losing valuable time
In the end didn't matter much
We did not have a single loser
Coolagh Magic a non runner
The place saver won the race
Some would have won money
Many like me not have bothered
Malinas Glory was a place saver 
Gave us some or part returns
But a hard bet to get on really
Wowzers was a nice little saver
Magellan Strait won quite easily
Happy with calling that right
Saver won the last race as well
But devilishly difficult to get on
Message was a pain to compile
It was difficult to get stakes on
But at least no outright losers





 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS     


Gowran Park 1.35

13/8 Catena Zapata, 7/2 Wee Willie Nail
5/1 Art Of Silence 8/1 Single Edition, 10/1 Six Ace
12/1 Pidoyne, 16/1 Broadford Publican, 25/1 Iguis
25/1 Slaney Bank, 33/1 Captain Frankie, 33/1 Ivane
33/1 Spring Street, 50/1 Champagnegaloppen
50/1 Cooleys Sleipnir, Pettigo, 66/1 Navy Waves
100/1 Comeragh Belle, 100/1 Depeche Mo.

Maiden Hurdle (4yo)

Complicated

No silver bullet here

WEE WILLIE NAIL is favourite
He brings plenty of positives
My only concern sired by Yeats
Would be the 3f drop in distance

CATENA ZAPATA paper favourite
Has been dislodged as favourite

Horses with no hurdle runs
But 12 or more flat races
Absent more than 21 days
Have a modest 1-36 record
CATENA ZAPATA shares this
Has a chance but not bomb proof

PIDOYNE is a negative

ART OF SILENCE is respected
Unbeaten early on hurdling debut
But was fancied in the market there
Going with a speculative bet

SINGLE EDITION 10/1-12/1

Two reasons for this

He has 2 hurdle runs
His figures are right up there

He ran over 2m 4f last time
Sire stats hint that was too far
Certainly looks like it last time
Thats why he did not progress
This trip could be the answer

Selection
 
SINGLE EDITION 10/1-12/1

Each Way








Ascot 2.00

5/1 Pocket The Profit, 11/2 Carnival Zain, 8/1 Dance Fever
8/1 Kimifive, Young Fire, 9/1 Able Kane, 10/1 Persuasion
12/1 Alablaq, Stone Soldier, 14/1 Final Watch, Lord Rapscallion
14/1 Mr Trick, Tomfre, 20/1 Spirited Guest, 25/1 Zhui Feng.

7f Handicap

Amateur Riders

One annoying factor about this
There are no recent renewals
We needed some to help us
As the field is extremely deep

Opposing the favourites

With 2 interesting draw stats

Then it's an educated guess 

Go back to 2011 
Ascot 7f handicaps
9 or more runners
Horses drawn in stall 1
Have a modest 4-94 record
Those with over 8 career runs
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-75
CARNIVAL ZAIN is drawn 1
He fails this 0-75 draw angle

POCKET THE PROFIT is a 3yo
Fails another draw angle in stall 14

Go back to 2011 
Ascot 7f handicaps
Horses under 4 years old
Absent more than 2 weeks
Drawn in stall 10 or higher
Have a 0-82 record in them
POCKET THE PROFIT fails this
Stall 14 and has 92 days absence

Feel we should oppose this pair

Go back 3 years

Ascot 7f handicaps
Between 9 and 18 runners
There were 11 of these races
Horses draw in stalls 1 to 9
Won all 11 of these handicaps
Horses drawn 10 or more
Have a 0-40 record in them
Opposing these high draws

STONE SOLDIER drawn 15
He also has 55 days absence
ABLE KANE rejected drawn 12 
Without enough other positives

LORD RAPSCALLION is beatable
SPIRITED GUEST not inspiring
ZHUI FENG is absent far too long
FINAL WATCH looks underaced

No strong objections to the others

ABALAQ has a bit to prove here
Could have some improvement
But has never won above class 5 
Never won off his current rating

DANCE FEVER has a fair chance
I'd have liked a more recent run

PERSUASION is not ruled out

Ian Williams runs two horses

KIMIFIVE must have a chance
MR TRICK appealed a bit more

There is a case that if 8f is too far
He may improve back at this trip

YOUNG FIRE is on the staking
He has the fittest profile of these
Ran well in a better race last time
When also having the worst draw
Low draw and fittest profile as well
Hard to judge 7f on good ground
But feel he is the most likely winner
Just worried the trip is a little short
And he is going to be held up too

I could easily go each way 
But what if he gets outpaced 

MR TRICK gets on staking
Price was too tempting in the end

TOMFRE has a weak draw (13)
Not hung up on a couple of stalls
Which non runners could repair
And he has significant backclass
He could be the right place bet


Selection 

£4.00 Each Way MR TRICK 18/1

£1.00 Win Bet YOUNG FIRE 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet TOMFRE 10/1






Ascot 2.35

7/4 Aggagio, 4/1 Gumball, 
5/1 Justus, 13/2 Malakahna, 8/1 Temporize
33/1 Coeur Blimey.

2m Handicap

GUMBALL is an 8 year old
He has 140 days absence
He has 10st 2lbs to carry
He fails the following angle 

Go back to 1998
Handicaps over 1m 7f +
Run in Class 3 or higher
Run any time of year
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 112 days
Carrying 8st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-96 record in them
GUMBALL fails this 0-96 angle
COUER BLIMEY does as well


TEMPORIZE is a 3 year old
Lightly raced well beaten last time 
Can not match him to any winner

MALAKAHNA is a 4yo filly
She has a strange profile
Yet she is being supported 
She ran only 6 days ago
She was beaten over 9 lengths
Yes she had some excuses 
But was still beaten a fair way
I can make her a neutral profile

JUSTUS isn't bomb proof either
Just a couple of runs since March
His profile is neutral at best

AGGAGIO has a sound chance
Biggest objection is his price
Think he should be a saver bet
Toss up for the main selection

Both trained by Ian Williams

MALAKAHNA 3/1
JUSTUS 7/1



Selection

£6.00 Win Bet MALAKAHNA 3/1
 
£4.00 Win Bet AGGAGIO 6/4-13/8
  






Gowran Park 2.42

4/1 Cracklinrose, 5/1 Berliet Express, 11/2 A Mere Bagatelle
6/1 Unlaoised, 9/1 Kinnegad Lad, 10/1 Beeverstown Bullet
10/1 Woodstream Lad, 12/1 Flyaway Maggie, 16/1 Go Gill Go
16/1 Karayaz, 20/1 Be A Lucky Lady,  Ishan, 25/1 Celine Man
33/1 Sand And Water, Wee Small Hours, 50/1 All The Angels

Handicap Hurdle 2m

9 Past renewals

CRACKLINROSE is a 5yo
She is a mare from a chase 
Hardly the ideal preparation

CRACKLINROSE has 8 runs
Inexperienced horses
Do not score well in this

Horses with under 10 races
Have a 0-52 record in this
CRACKLINROSE fails this
As do the following horses

BE A LUCKY LADY
CELINE MAN
INSHAN
KARAYAZ
 
FLYAWAY MAGGIES has 8 runs
Less than all previous winners
Similar races elsewhere confirm
Lightly raced 4yo fillies are unsafe
  
All 9 Previous winners
Had between 11-23 career runs
Had between 4-20 hurdle runs 
WEE SMALL HOURS is exposed

None have won this handicap
With under 4 hurdle starts  
Several of the above fail this

Every past winner of the race
Ran within the previous 73 days
ALL THE ANGELS is off 401 days
SAND AND WATER 252 days off
BE A LUCKY LADY 124 days off
INSHAN is absent 138 days too

Lightweights have done best
Horses with 11st 2lbs or more
Have a poor 1-71 record in this
GO GILL GO has this problem
She is also a mare from a chase
 
Need to be flexible here
When applying the weight stat

BEEVERSTOWN BULLET fails this
Not easy to forgive him as an 8yo
Having raced once in 127 days

BERLIET EXPRESS has 24 runs
He has 1 more run than ideal
A couple more pounds that ideal
Would not worry me much at all
But he has been chasing lately

WOODSTREAM LAD has 10 runs
The bare minimum required here
But he has started huge prices
KINNEGAD LAD is fine on profile
But has just downgraded yards
And his jockey is 0-13 in all rides 

A MERE BAGATELLE has 11st 10lbs
Horses with 11st 2lbs + are 1-71
His weight is not a positive sign 
He has also been chasing as well

UNLAOISED is an 8 year old mare
One of the safer overall profiles
 
Selection

UNLAOISED 6/1-11/2

Each Way






Gowran Park 3.17

7/2 Flashthelights, 4/1 Hard Rain, 5/1 Only One Plan
6/1 Will You Win, 10/1 Gaelic Force, 10/1 Grinn
12/1 Lucy Van Pelt, Sea Of Sands, 16/1 Vairue
25/1 Calahill, 33/1 Weston Road, 33/1 Deal Again
33/1 Jazzelle, 33/1 Katzoff, 50/1 Thecornerhouse.
50/1 Stander

Handicap Hurdle 2m

9 Past renewals

Division 2 of the 2.42pm

The same statistics apply

Inexperienced horses
Do not score well in this 
Horses with under 10 races
Have a 0-52 record in this
The following all fail this

25/1 Calahill
16/1 Weston Road
12/1 Sea Of Sands
16/1 Vairue
33/1 Deal Again
50/1 Thecornerhouse

So do the following
Who are all fancied in the market

FLASHTHELIGHTS has 9 runs
ONLY ONE PLAN has 6 races
HARD RAIN has 8 career starts

Not only do they fail this
They also fail the absence stat

Every past winner of the race
Ran within the previous 73 days
HARD RAIN has 134 days absence
And has more weight than is ideal
FLASHTHELIGHTS has 175 days off
Comes from a small stable as well
With a jockey without a winner
ONLY ONE PLAN has 77 days off
Just longer than all past winners
He's raced just once in 129 days

All 9 Previous winners
Had between 11-23 career runs
GRINN is a mare with 25 races
STANDER fails with 29 career runs
JAZELLE has the same problem

That leaves 4

KATZOFF
GAELIC FORCE
LUCY VAN PELT
WILL YOU WIN

GAELIC FORCE is a mare
Not scoring particularly well
Her trainer has a 1-110 record
Last had a winner back in 2016

LUCY VAN PELT is shortlistable
A Mare with just 1 run in 129 days
Takes a lot of the shine away

KATZOFF ran on flat recently 
Not really doing enough to like 
 
WILL YOU WIN a 7yo mare
Has a 0-20 hurdle record so far
But could win on several runs

Selection

WILL YOU WIN 8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Fontwell 3.25

15/8 Miss Fedora, 2/1 Mr Freedom, 3/1 Hill Station
8/1 Lightening Gesture, 14/1 Inspiratrice
33/1 Briar Bank, Ellencarne.

3yo Hurdle 

The horse I would attack here
MISS FEDORA a once raced filly
Just 1 run and starting only 33/1 
She has plenty to prove here

MR FREEDOM in contrast
Comes here winning 2 hurdles
He beat Miss Fedora on his debut
And has come out and won again

HILL STATION is hard to read
He is the complication here
From a significant stable too

Do we want him on the staking ?

Ideally I would myself
There are only 7 runners

He is 6/4 + to be 1st or 2nd
That could be a saver bet 

He could also be the selection
Mr Freedom would be a saver

I would be happy
With a bet similar to this one

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet MR FREEDOM 5/4-11/8-6/1
 
£2.00 Win Bet HILL STATION 7/2-4/1




 
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES     
    


Saturday Options

Ascot

Lot will depend on the rain
Rain expected 2pm on Friday

Ascot 3.36 - Challenge Cup

Will be one of the main previews
About half way through this now
No idea if it will turn out significant 
The more rain that the course gets
Will help the lower draws quite a bit
In a race the higher draws dominate



Expecting to do these races

Ascot 1-51 - Rous Stakes
Ascot 2.25 - Cumberland Lodge
Ascot 4.10 - October Stakes



This trilogy of races

Will throw up 3 horses

Ascot 1-51 - MANACAN 4/1
 
Ascot 2.25 - CRESTA 9/2

Ascot 4.10 - NIZAAKA 9/2



These are not early selections

Not done any of the races yet

But they will all come out well

CRESTA will have best profile

MANACAN from the best trial

NIZAAKA from the best trial

Either or all of these
May look good each way bets

Yet I may still oppose them all

I doubt I will be tempted anyway
To stake an each way bet at 4/1
Not something that I want to do 
Anything can happen Saturdays



Either way

We have a lot of choice tomorrow




Fontwell - Unlikely to figure

Newmarket - Doubt I will like much

Longchamp

Dropping the Prix Du Cadran

Don't want to bet Aidan's favourite
Don't want to oppose Aidans favourite

Could swap a race
Possibly the Prix Dollar
But doubt it will be worth it




Gowran Park

One of my best bets will run here
But this won't be suitable to stake

Time will dictate how many races
I will manage to fit in on this card

Similar comments to Killarney

Looking at things 2 days away

I could easily do too many races

Redcar will throw something up

Hope I don't end up doing too many

Mick recently advised me against it

  





Sunday
 
Longchamp 3.05

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
 
4/1 Luxembourg, 11/2 Alpinista, 7/1 Torquator Tasso
9/1 Titleholder, 10/1 Westover, 11/1 Vadeni, 14/1 Onesto
28/1 Mishriff, 28/1 Al Hakeem, 33/1 Mendocino
33/1 Mare Australis, 40/1 Do Deuce, 40/1 Sealiway
50/1 Mostahdaf  80/1 Grand Glory, 80/1 Deep Bond
80/1 Bubble Gift, 80/1 Broome, 80/1 Stay Foolish
100/1 Alenquer

Draw has now been made

LUXEMBOURG has drawn 8
Probably best of the bad draws
Wont be selecting him though

WESTOVER has drawn stall 7
Should be fine but not for me
ALPANISTA also well drawn 
But one or my early negatives

TITLEHOLDER is drawn 10
Nasty looking absence too
Won't be surprised if he wins
But has factors against him

Midweek shortlist

9/1 Vadeni
10/1 Torquator Tasso
12/1 Onesto 
33/1 Do Deuce
40/1 Mostahdaf
50/1 Mendocino


TORQUATOR TASSO is cooked
Won't be risking him drawn 18
MOSTAHDAF is drawn too high

ONESTO has been drawn 11
Can be done like last years race
But it is a factor against him now
 
DO DEUCE wont be hard to pass up

MENDOCINO is kept on side here
Wouldn't shock to see any shock

 VADENI 

Looks the most likely selection

Much as that is so premature
  
Liked his profile and drawn low

Ground and market may help

In a race we will need lots of luck
 
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