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Today's Message 



Start of a new week

Nearly had a second day off
Having done a run of 14 days  
Just two national hunt cards
Both racing on heavy ground



Done 1 preview
At each of todays meetings

Started this message late
Just a bit of match practice


Last week


Felt I navigated it badly
Also feel we were unlucky
2 of our bets were fallers

Deliberate plan this week
To be busier both in F.B.A
And with the previews too
We are now due a good run 
So I'm cranking up the work 



Newcastle 6.45
Dusky Prince 7/4 
Win Bet

 
Short price fitness based bet
No interest in staking this one

I have had a bet in the race
But it is a controversial one
It is not the bet I am advising 

Not really able to stake this
Explained in the last preview



Going to argue this bet

Should be the message choice

Only because of the prices


Ayr 1.55

£2.50 Each Way FAME VALLEY 18/1-20/1-22/1

£5.00 Win Bet THE FLIER BEGLEY 1/1-11/10



Stakes are a bit messy

But could be a shock here 

You could just bet the 20/1 short

Not that interested today

Needed another day off

So using this as a light day






Preview Selections


Ayr 1.55
£2.50 Each Way Fame Valley 18/1- 20/1-22/1
£5.00 Win Bet The Flier Begley 1/1-11/10

Lingfield 2.45
Do You Think 100/30-7/2
Each Way

Newcastle 6.45
Dusky Prince 7/4 
Win Bet




Yesterday's Summary 
 
Sunday was the latest message
Looked at 3 previews in Ireland
Finished up with a W L P record
Unfortunately the only loser here
Was a staked bet who was beaten
THE DABBLER got brought down
Outsider fell early at the 4th fence
Unluckily to be right behind him 
Much too early to predict his run
Don't feel we have had much luck
Two of our last 3 staked bets lost
Fell in a hurdle and brought down
But have to roll with the punches
The other two races won + placed
So hopefully so damage repaired





PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Ayr 1.55

15/8 The Flier Begley, 9/2 Sporty Jim
5/1 Geordies Dream, 6/1 Your Own Story
7/1 Gaillimh A Stor, 12/1 Charm Offensive
12/1 Mount Melleray, 16/1 Fame Valley
25/1 Storm Tiger, 33/1 Benack, 40/1 Heritier De Sivola
50/1 So Many Roads, 66/1 Fast Scenic
150/1 The Real Rascal.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

THE FLIER BEGLEY

Sets the standard in this
Comfortably ahead on figures

His hurdling debut last time
Racing Post rating of 120
Made him a negative there
He failed a 0-108 statistic
As a 7yo hurdling debutant
Trying to win in a large field
Having only bumper form
You can upgrade his debut

CHARM OFFENSIVE an 8yo
Is also a mare absent 47 days

January to April
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Mares aged 6 or more
Over 7 career starts
Absent over 34 days
Have a 0-58 record in them
Not a safe enough profile

GEORDIES DREAM a 7yo
Has 1 hurdle run
He has 68 days absence
He comes from a 2m race
And fails this generic stat

Maiden Hurdles 
Since 2007
Run over 2m 4f and more
Horses aged 7 or more
Under 3 hurdle races
Coming from a 2m hurdle
Absent over 43 days
Have a 0-83 record in them
Run all year round
GEORDIES DREAM fails this

Could be hidden dangers
GAILLIHM A STOR is unraced
Would be disappointed if he won
YOUR OWN STORY a 6yo
Has no hurdling experience
SPORTY JIM the same problem

THE FLIER BEGLEY

Has the best chance
But he is short enough
Going to make him a saver

FAME VALLEY

Local trainer
Has some reasonable runs
Been messed about in trip
2 weeks ago at Newcastle
A horse called Rowdy Rustler
Won a similar race to this
With a similar profile to him
Needs to improve a bit to win
But has fitness and experience
On heavy ground that may help
So playing the race this way

Selection

£2.50 Each Way FAME VALLEY 20/1-22/1

£5.00 Win Bet THE FLIER BEGLEY 1/1-11/10




Lingfield 2.45

7/2 Do You Think, 7/2 Glancing Glory, 4/1 Our Bill's Aunt
11/2 Nikolayeva 13/2  Code Name Lise 8/1 Eavesdropping
12/1 Craan Run, 33/1 Harry's Hottie,

Mares Maiden Hurdle  
 
3 Non runners so far

Trying to narrow this down

Go back to 2007
January and February
Mares maiden hurdles
Any distance
Horses with under 3 runs
Running within 6 weeks
Have a 4-104 record in them
Thise beaten over 6 lengths
Have a 0-82 record in them
GLANCING GLORY fails this
Beaten 19 lengths last time
CRAAB RUN also fails it too

After the non runners

6 year olds dominate the race

NIKOLAYEVA is a 5 year old
The only fancied one in this
She has had 24 career starts

Seems very exposed for a 5yo
When racing once in 113 days
Having been sold cheaply
And now with a Racing club
Will be surprised if she wins

COOL NAME LISE is a 6yo
Heavy 47 lengths defeat
 
February maiden hurdles
Run over 2m 2f and further
With over 3 runners

Horses aged 6 or more
Under 8 career starts
Beaten over 30 lengths
Have a 0-133 record
COOL NAME LISE  fails this

Expect 1 of 3 to win

DO YOU THINK
OUR BILLS AUNT
EAVESDROPPING



All similar profiles



OUR BILLS AUNT 2nd last time
EAVESDROPPING behind her

Either could take this race

One thing bothering me
About all 3 of these horses

Are they being handicapped
All have their 3rd hurdle run

EAVESDROPPING last time
Shaped like she could be
She was looked after nicely

Could be wrong

DO YOU THINK is first choice
Could have a saver if win only
There are currently 8 runners
Going each way given others

Selection

DO YOU THINK 100/30-7/2

Each Way





Newcastle 6.45

5/2 Alaskan Jewel, Dusky Prince, 9/2 Just Another
5/1 Tilly The Filly, 8/1 Sherdil, 14/1 Loose Lips
16/1 Build Me Up, 25/1 Waverley Star.

3yo Handicap 5f

BUILD ME UP is a filly
She has the topweight 
Combined with 105 days off
Having had only 5 career runs
Has already downgraded yards
Just seems a lot of her plate
And she looks underraced 
It could be the opening here

Runs in the last 120 days

5 Dusky Prince
2 Just Another
1 Alaskan Jewel
1 Build Me Up
1 Sherdi
0 Tilly The Filly
0 Loose Lips

DUSKY PRINCE

Has by far the most recent runs
That may well get him home here
SHERDILL has 1 run in 123 days
ALASKAN JEWEL is a 3yo filly
She's raced once in just 164 days
TILLY THE FILLY has 126 days off
LOOSE LIPE has had 216 days off 

On or any of these might win
But staying with fitter profiles

Selection

DUSKY PRINCE 7/4

Win Bet



Had a small bet myself

Betfair's each way market

Offers 3 places

Even though 7 run

Someone was offering 7/4
About Dusky Prince each way
With 3 places available 
Took a £20 each way bet

Win £41 if he wins
Lose £13 if placed
Lose £40 unplaced

That will do me

Most will detest that strategy

I am risking later rule 4's
Non runners could hurt me
Not a stake I can advise
Thats why I went win only
But for my own betting
Thats the stake I have had






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  

Not much to say today


Ante Post Statistics

For a race this Saturday

May not be a target race

Will discuss why tomorrow





Saturday 20th February

Haydock 2.40

Grand National Trial

Handicap Chase

7/2 Secret Reprieve 8/1 Enqarde 
10/1 Lord du Mesnil 10/1 Sam Brown 10/1 Blaklion 
10/1 Fortescue 12/1 Bristol de Mai 12/1 The Galloping Bear 
12/1 Snow Leopardess 12/1 Commodore 14/1 Time To Get Up
16/1 Achille 16/1 Good Boy Bobby 16/1 Jersey Bean
20/1 Mint Condition 20/1 The Two Amigos 20/1 Caribean Boy
20/1 Highland Hunter 20/1 Quick Wave 20/1 Full Back
25/1 Sidi Ismael 25/1 Destinee Royale 25/1 El Paso Wood
25/1 Movethechains 25/1 Elegant Escape 33/1 Notachance
33/1 Kalooki 40/1 Gwencily Berbas

Race Statistics
 
Official Ratings of Past winners

149 136 148 146 146 144 139 131 129 
138 149 143 143 144 121 126 135 136

No horse has won this rated 150 +
All 22 that tried were beaten

Horses aged under 9
Rated 147 or higher are 0-14

Past winners
Had the following chase runs

20 24 7 17 8 11 11 14 5 11
13 11 14 5 5 11 7 6 9 3

The last winner
With under 5 chase runs 
Was a long way back in 2001
 
January February March
Handicap Chases over 3m 4f +
Class 2 or higher
Since 2010
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 42 days
Had a 0-87 record in them

Every winner since 2006
Had at least 12 career starts

Only 3 past winners of this race
Had under 14 lifetime starts
They were aged 9 9 10 years old
No younger horse managed it (0-27)

Horses with over 22 career starts
Absent more than 44 days
Have a 0-23 record in this race

Since 1998
Horses aged 7 are 2-36
Winning in 2004 and 2007
Since 2008 horses aged 7 are 0-22
Both were lightly raced chasers
Both came from Class A races
Both had 10st 6lbs or less weight
 
Tread carefully with recent runs
Horses running within 4 weeks
When Finishing that recent race
Have a poor 2-48 record since 1999
Both winners came from Novices
They both won that race as well

Two past winners from Novices
Both of them won 14 days before 

Horses with over 7 chase runs
Coming from a Handicap Chase 
Completed the course last time
But who also failed to win the race
That completed  
Running within the last 41 days
Have a 0-67 record in this race
  
Past winners
Had the following runs this season
3 2 1 5 1 3 0 5 2 2 3 4 2 5 3 1 4 0 3 3 6

Horses with just 1 run
In the previous 3 months do win
But they all had under 12 chases
Horses with 12 or more chase runs
Will probably need 2 + recent runs
 
Past winners
Had the following absences
42 42 28 14 77 49 34 301 41 53 42
54 44 51 14 44 91 49 14 35

Horses from the Welsh National
Won 5 of the past renewals
They were all aged 8-9-10
Finished in the top 9 in that race
All had 15-23 career runs
All had 5-13 chase runs
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