6 Previews 
0 Account Bet


No Account bet



Nothing close to a bet

Having 3 bets myself

Novelty bet option as well

Nominating this as best bet





Today's Best Bet

Hamilton 2.00

FOX HILL 4/1 

Each Way







Preview Selections 
   
Hamilton 1.30
Installation 11/8 
Win Bet

Hamilton 2.00
Fox Hill 4/1 
Each Way

Hamilton 2.30
£8.00 Win Bet Zuraig 7/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Grifter 4/1
 
Hamilton 3.00
£6.00 Win Bet Matty Too 4/1 
£4.00 Place Bet  Clarets Glory 5/4
 
Hamilton 3.30 
£7.00 Win Bet Zig Zag Zyggy 7/1-15/2 
£1.00 Win Bet Burtonlodge Beauty 10/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Tanasoq 11/1-12/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Nodsasgoodasawink 16/1

Hamilton 4.30
£7.00 Win Bet Super Stars 4/1
£3.00 Win Bet A La Francaise 5/2






Today's Message   


Hamilton Message

6 Previews there

low grade and scrappy stuff
But the National hunt cards
Are a mixture of small fields
Or require lots of guesswork
Had no strong views at either

First 3 previews
Give us our best chances
Betting in all of these races

  
Hamilton 1.30
INSTALLATION 6/4
Win Bet

Hamilton 2.00
FOX HILL 4/1 
Each Way

Hamilton 2.30
£8.00 Win Bet ZURAIG 7/2 
£2.00 Win Bet GRIFTER 4/1


Stakes and strategies
In Under The Message
  
For anyone interested
There is a Novelty bet  
Described in detail below  
You could have that bet
Rather than bet Intervention


Nominating the best bet 

Could go with any of the 3

This is the hardest race

As we have more to beat


Today's Best Bet

Hamilton 2.00

FOX HILL 4/1 

Each Way








£10 Novelty Bet 
  
Hamilton 2.30

£5 Win Bet Intervention 13/8 + 
£5 Win Bet Colnago 13/8 +

Place returns around £13 
On the following win bet

Hamilton 2.00 

Fox Hill 4/1 to win
  
Should have between £65-70

Split them as follows

£45.00 Win Zuraig 7/2 
£20.00 Win Grifter 4/1

Zuraig returns about £200

Grifter returns about £100



Chance of a Monday message

Depends on the Kerry National

How far I get with the race

Best to assume no message









Underneath The Message 
  
Hamilton 1.30
Installation 6/4 
  
May just have one to beat 
There is a case to bet both
Installation as a saver bet
But decided not to do this

This may look a perverse bet
In Betfairs each way market
Installation was 2.74 earlier
Had £25 each way on him

Wins me £65 if winning
Only lose £17 if second
It's an acquired taste bet
Not entirely convinced
But I think he may win
And if he runs his race
Should be at least 2nd


My Stakes

Installation

£25 Each Way 2.74 (1-2)






 
Hamilton 2.00

FOX HILL 4/1 

Each Way
 
Fillies handicaps are tough
But I feel pound for pound
She is probably my best bet 

My stakes 
£20 Win Bet

 
Hamilton 2.30
£8.00 Win Bet Zuraig 7/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Grifter 4/1

There is a definite case
That this may be my best bet 
Because we have few to beat
Opposing the favourite here
Get that right we are cooking

My stake

£24.00 Zuraig 7/2 +
£6.00 Grifter 4/1 

That is me done

Like the first 3 races most

Not going to bet the others

  





Yesterday's Summary  
 
Had our moments yesterday
Mainly in the first half of it
We we finished quite poorly
The account bet was beaten
And overall we were behind
KING FRANCIS brought risk
Looked quite likely to place
But got ran out of it later on
Just more streetwise horses
Felt Catterick offered most
Did not turn out to be right
But just no luck at all there
Breckland had a wide route
It clearly cost him ground
Wade's Magic placed in 3rd
Given too much to do early
Travelled well like a winner
His class edge was visable
But had to make ground up
Paid for that inside the last
And got mugged at the end
We'renotreallyhere placed
The minimum requirement
He went odds on in running
After initial disappointment
Relieved he secured a place
Found 2 early easy winners
Royal Champion hacked up
Mister Mister did the same
It gave us temporary hope 
But these were not enough
As the message ended badly
Not that it was an easy finish
Ayr Gold Cup was a lottery
Later races tough handicaps
Probably too long a message
Losing but not any calamity
But with the main bet losing
Ended up clear second best

  






PROFILES & PREVIEWS
    
  

Hamilton 1.30

13/8 Installation, 3/1 Colnago, 4/1 Concert Boy
4/1 Queenie Rooney, 25/1 Erazmus
40/1 Smooth Red.

2yo Novice 5f

Chances are this race is a match
CONCERT HALL the only debutant  
Could easily win cost a few quid
But suspect this may be too warm

QUEEN ROONIE has raced twice
She is the only filly in the race
Had excuses last time ran well
Taking on males off 3 months
Only 1 run in the last 117 days  

COLNAGO has shown ability
Started odds on at Wolverhampton
He will be a test for the favourite

INSTALLATION

Cost a fair sum at £230,000
He ran a fine debut at York
Needed the run finished 3rd
Inexperienced and ran green
Richard Fahey said beforehand
He was one of his better 2yo's

He started favourite at Thirsk
But disappointed in 4th place
Got upset in the preliminaries
And ran into a decent horse

Suspect this may be a match
Both of them flopped last time
COLNAGO beaten at odds on
He never settled on the sand
INSTALLATION gets the vote

Selection

INSTALLATION 6/4

Win Bet








Hamilton 2.00

7/2 Roshambo, 9/2 Selby's Pride, 6/1 Fox Hill
6/1 Little Miss Dynamo, 13/2 Miss Bella Brand, 8/1 Iris Dancer
10/1 Guest List, 10/1 Kentucky Rose, 20/1 Pearl Of Qatar
25/1 Rose Bandit, Soller Bay.
   
Fillies Handicap (6f)

14 past renewals
56 similar races

Not that much to go on  
All 14 previous winners
Ran within the last 38 days

Against the horses
Who have longer absences
GUEST LIST has 72 days off
ROSHAMBO has 46 days off
She has a nasty draw in 11
And fails the following stat

Hamilton 
6f Handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses with under 8 runs
Drawn in stall 10 or higher
Coming from 8f or shorter
Have a 0-30 record in the
ROSHAMBO fails this stat
 
SOLLER BAY is scoring poorly
ROSE BANDIT the same issue 
PEARL OF QATAR is underraced

Past winners show 3yo's
Won 6 of the 14 renewals
They all had under 9 runs

Horses aged 3
Over 8 career starts
Have a 0-33 record in this
KENTUCKY ROSE is in this range
LITTLE MISS DYNAMO is as well
SELBY'S PRIDE has 13 races
The most exposed 3yo in this
And has to carry topweight too

IRIS DANCER is very exposed
Still rated only 63 after 31 runs
Never rated higher than 67 before
See her was probably vulnerable

MISS BELLA BRAND is exposed
Would not be a shock winner
But never won in this class before
Never won off her current rating

FOX HILL

One of the classier runners 
She is the only horse in this
Who has raced twice this month
She has the shortest absence
She has a decent draw as well

This is quite a spiteful race
But she has most positives

Selection

FOX HILL 4/1

Each Way








Hamilton 2.30

11/10 Gifted Ruler, 3/1 Grifter 9/2 Zuraig
7/1 Barneys Gift, 14/1 Gordonstoun.

Selling race 9f

For horses age 3-4-5

GIFTED RULER is rated 82
He is clearly the class horse
And should win at the weights
There are other considerations

He has 49 days off
He has raced once in 102 days
Raced only 3 times in 11 months
He could easily be underraced
He is going up almost 2f in trip

Enough there to put me off him
When you factor in a short price
Some others could be underraced
BARNEYS GIFT is short of races
Just 1 outing in the last 102 days

Runs within 2 months
 
3 Grifter
3 Zuraig
1 Gifted Ruler
1 Gordonstoun
1 Barneys Gift

Staying with the two horses
With the most recent races

Selection
 
£8.00 Win Bet ZURAIG 7/2-100/30 

£2.00 Win Bet GRIFTER 4/1






Hamilton 3.00

9/4 Caleta Sunrise, 4/1 Gentle Ellen, 7/1 Clarets Glory
7/1 Matty Too, 8/1 Baileys Liberty, 12/1 Bonito Cavalo
12/1 Golden Rainbow, 12/1 Miss Calculation, 12/1 Raydoun
20/1 The Gay Blade.

3yo Handicap 6f

Viscious looking race

The horses going up in distance
Are all amongst the lightweights
Decided none of them were safe
Opposing these from 5f races
GOLDEN RAINBOW
MISS CALCULATION
BONITO CAVALO

THE GAY BLADE is rejected
Out of the weights rated low
BAILEYS LIBERTY is drawn 10
Worst draw damages his chance
GENTLE ELLEN is a 3yo filly
She's raced once in 107 days

This leads to 4 horses

CALETA SUNRISE
CLARETS GLORY
MATTY TOO
RAYDOUN

Forced to guess here

Every winner since 2009
Had under 13 career starts
Horses with 13 or more runs
Had a 0-29 record in this race
The following horses fail this

MISS CALCULATION-13 runs
BAILEYS LIBERTY - 15 runs
MATTY TOO - 16 runs
RAYDOUN - 21 runs

Go back to 2009
September
3yo handicaps (6f)
Class 4 or lower

Horses with over 12 runs
Absent more than 21 days
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-44 record in them
RAYDOUN fail this statistic


Shortlist

CALETA SUNRISE 
MATTY TOO
CLARETS GLORY

MATTY TOO is a bit exposed
But is the class horse in this
And drops into a lower grade

Decided to split stake this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet MATTY TOO 4/1

£4.00 Place Bet CLARETS GLORY 5/4






Hamilton 3.30

9/2 Shesadabber, 6/1 Birdie Bowers, 13/2 Basholo
7/1 Captain Corcoran, 7/1 Zig Zag Zyggy, 8/1 Eruption
10/1 Tanasoq, 12/1 Burtonlodge Beauty, Nodsasgoodasawink
14/1 Red Allure, 16/1 Sunset Glow, 20/1 Kraken Power
25/1 Stroxx.

5f Handicap

Wide open sprint

Opposing the following

ERUPTION is a 3yo filly
She's raced once in 75 days
There are fitter alternatives

SUNSET GLOW has 55 days of
KRACKEN POWER low figures
STROXX has the same problem

Go back to 2011
Hamilton 5f races
Any class
Any time 
Horses with over 14 runs
Drawn in stall 11 or higher
Have a 0-52 record in them
The following all fail this

BIRDIE BOWERS
CAPTAIN CORCORAN
SHESADABBER

BASHOLO has a chance
Can see positives with her
But she is only a 3yo filly
Gives weight to older males
And has stall 10 to cope with
RED ALLURE is a 7yo mare
She is only rated 55 these days
Too many have more recent runs
To commit to an older mare

ZIG ZAG ZYGGY is a positive

Only 3 days ago at Ayr
There was a 5f handicap
Slightly better race than this

NODSASGOODASAWINK 7th 
TANASOQ finished in 8th 
BURTONWOODLODGE 15th
All of these were considered
Either as selections or savers

Going to play it this way



Selection

£7.00 Win Bet ZIG ZAG ZYGGY 7/1-15/2

£1.00 Win Bet BURTONWOODLODGE 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet TANASOQ 11/1-12/1

£1.00 Win Bet NODSASGOODASAWINK 16/1


 






Hamilton 4.30

11/4 A La Francaise, 5/1 Salve Japan, 5/1 Super Stars
5/1 Sylvia Beach, 6/1 Kanzino, 10/1 Tafsir, 12/1 Monroe Gold
14/1 Lechro, 25/1 Lady Hamilton, Zephlyn, 50/1 Pasha Bay.

3yo Handicap 11f

KANZINO topweight rated 70
Has been supported into 5/1
But he has raced just 3 times
Not convinced he will stay

Some of them are underraced
Some of them look outclassed
Happy to avoid all of these

PASHA BAY
LECHRO
ZEPHLYN
TAFSIR
LADY HAMILTON

SALVE JAPAN looks raw
As a filly with just 3 races
MONROE GOLD similar

Navigating not unexpectedly
Towards the top of the weights

SYLVIA BEACH
A LA FRANCAISE
SUPER STARS

SYLVIA BEACH is a filly
She's raced once in 135 days
Lightly raced sexy connections
But she has downgraded yards
She is coming up in class too
And very short of recent races
May win but hard to commit too

A LA FRANCAISE is a positive
Would not have chosen stall 1 
SUPER STARS is a big player
Considered him each way bet
But he's raced once in 2 months
A LA FRANCAISE has 3 runs
So split staking win and saver

Selection 

£7.00 Win Bet SUPER STARS 4/1

£3.00 Win Bet A LA FRANCAISE 5/2

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