5 Previews 
0 Account Bet      
  

No Account bet 
 



Preview Selections 
 
Thirsk 2.50
Enderman 11/2-5/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Musselburgh 3.50
Poet's Dawn 2/1-7/4
Win Bet

Tipperary 4.40
Moss Tucker 13/8-7/4
Win Bet

Musselburgh 4.55 
£8.00 Win Bet  Stroxx 9/2 +
£2.00 Win Bet Lord Of The Glen 11/2-5/1

Bath 5.20
£4.00 Each Way Fossos 8/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Hot Hot Hot 4/1






Today's Message     
   

Scrappy cards today
Been a bit of a struggle

Thirsk feels my worst track
Nobody gets too much there

Musselburgh rarely generous
Hard to produce anything hot
Quite a difficult midweek day



Mentioned a Saturday race

Thought about staking a bet
It could work in our favour
But if the horse does not run
That would be a real sickener



Saturday

Sandown 1.50

Coral Charge

MITBAAHY 4/1


Decided to wait and watch
Not stake any ante post bet  
Got a day or two to reflect
Maybe build money up on him




This is not a good message

I could improve it significantly

If I delayed it a couple of hours

But that's rarely a sensible idea

Creates just different problems


So a low staking day

Mainly run on unfriendly tracks








Message Choice 
 
 
Tipperary 4.40

MOSS TUCKER 13/8 -7/4

Win Bet









Underneath The Message    


Musselburgh 2.10
 
Gracelands Girl 

Not previewed this race
Because the horse is 8/11

If he touches 4/5 on Betfair
Than I would be interested





Musselburgh 3.50

Poet's Dawn 2/1-7/4

Considered an each way bet
At 2/1 in Betfairs e/w market
But horses down two grades
Do not do as well as I'd like


Decided to have £12 win

If he wins placing full returns

On the message choice

Tipperary 4.40 

Moss Tucker 13/8 -7/4


Effectively a £12 double
If both win I will be done
Will be quite a decent profit 

If Poets Dawn gets beaten

I will pivot this way


Betfairs each way market

Tipperary 4.40 

Moss Tucker 7/4

£20 Each Way


Only 2 places
But 1/4 the odds on offer

Whatever happens in this
I will shut shop for the day







Yesterday's Review 

Short message to look back on
Started with two shorter prices
Which then had to be combined
Because of a very late non runner 
Pleasing that both horses did win
If only that this protected us later
From the bigger priced selections
The Gloaming drifted out and lost
I blame the ground for that defeat
The advertised rain never helped
Felt we were beaten beforehand
Because just in the previous race
A track record had been broken 
It may well have been too firm
Nothing back from the last race
Princess Sela beaten in a photo
Having come out of the stalls last
She was one very unlucky loser
She was a win bet not each way
Made the point about the staking
It was hard to to get that correct
And had to rely on luck with this
Both the short priced bets won
Nothing back from the 2 others 







PROFILES & PREVIEWS    



Thirsk 2.50

11/2 So Grateful, 6/1 Brazen Idol, 13/2 Enderman
8/1 Keep Me Happy, 11/1 Canaria Prince, She's A Deva
14/1 Asmund, 14/1 Embla, 14/1 Hard Solution, 14/1 Royal Emerther
14/1 Ustath, 16/1 Gorgeous General, 18/1 Foreseeable Future
20/1 Hurstwood, Jet Set Go, Kolossus, 25/1 Birdie Bowers
25/1 Dylan's Lad, 33/1 Dreamcasing, 50/1 Qwicken.

6f Handicap

Spiteful looking race

Not worth spending much time on
Just following a few angles here

Past renewals show
Horses aged 3 are 0-39
Going to oppose these 
BRAZEN IDOL
KEEP ME HAPPY
ROYAL EMERTHER

The 3 year old stat
Could bust at any time 
BRAZEN IDOL could still win
He has a recent race after all
But will stall 16 be a help ?

Hard to know its inconclusive
But in 12 handicaps this year
Every winner was drawn 1-12
Horses drawn 13 + were 0-30

SO GRATEFUL is drawn 18
Similar races here since 2005
Horses under 5 years old
Drawn in stall 16 or higher
Without a run within 17 days
Have a modest 1-49 record
CANARIA PRINCE is drawn 19
He almost fails the same angle
But not for me with just 8 runs
Horses with under 15 career runs
Have a 0-37 record in this race
CANARIA PRINCE fails this
EMBLA also fails this 0-39 angle
HURTSWOOD is underraced
HARD SOLUTION is short of runs
Having raced twice since Aug 2021
GEORGEOUS GENERAL is a 7yo
He's raced just once in 138 days
I doubt that will be enough to win
ASMUND looks wrong from 8.5f

USTATH has a chance
Not a strong profile from 5f
But can not be ruled out

SHE'S A DEVA is a 4yom filly
Despite her coming from a 5f race
I can match her to winners
As she has a good recent race

ENDERMAN has positives
Well drawn and running well

Selection
 
ENDERMAN 11/2-5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5








Musselburgh 3.50

7/4 Poet's Dawn, 5/1 Irv, 6/1 Chinese Spirit
6/1 Far From A Ruby, 6/1 Shine On Brendan
12/1 Caballero, 12/1 Simple Star
20/1 Braes Of Doune.

9f Handicap
 
Several are well handicapped 
Going to oppose the following

SIMPLY STAR down from 11f
CABALLERO looks underaced
CHINESE SPIRIT 47 rated 8yo
BRAES OF DOUNE inexperienced

That leaves 4 horses

POET'S DRAWN rated 65

Faces horses rated just 59 57 56

When you consider
He looks very well handicapped
Started the year running off 78
He has been running himself fit
As his rating has been dropping
He could easily outclass this field

I fancied him last time at Carlisle
That was in 2 grades higher than this
He looks well placed to outclass these

Do we want a 7yo
Dropping down 2 grades ?

Surprisingly not particularly
But there are no 3 year olds here
The 4 year olds underrepresented
And he faces older class 6 types
He should be going close in this
He has the most runs in June
He has the shortest absence too
IRV looks his biggest danger 
He could be used as a saver bet
But that makes things far tighter

Selection

POET'S DAWN 2/1-7/4

Win Bet







Tipperary 4.40

7/4 Moss Tucker, 3/1 Funchal
100/30 Quarantine Dreams, 6/1 Verhoyen
8/1 Chocquinto, 12/1 Shelly Banks.

5f Stakes race

Race for very good sprinters
Who have yet to prove themselves
In Listed or Group races before

FUNCCHAL has raced once
I doubt that will be enough here
Against several of his opponents
Having official ratings of 95 +
SHELLY BANKS is not well in

QUARANTINE DREAMS a 4yo
Would not be my first choice here
Not exactly bred for 5 furlongs
He has raced once since mid May
In the exact same period of time 
Most opponents have had 3-4 runs
CHOCQUINTO is not first choice
As there are much fitter profiles

VERHOYEN is one

MOSS TUCKER offers the most
And has the fittest profile of these

Selection

MOSS TUCKER 13/8 -7/4

Win Bet 





Musselburgh 4.55

3/1 Lord Of The Glen, 100/30 Isle Of Dreams, 4/1 Stroxx,
5/1 Bridgetown, 15/2 Mansfield, 10/1 Koropick, 20/1 Jessie Allan
20/1 See My Baby Jive, 25/1 Miss Connaisseur.

5f Classifield Stakes 

Really poor quality

Horses rated 50 or less
Several unacceptable profiles
SEE MY BABLY LIVE 370 days off
MISS CONNAISSEUR a long break
MANSFIELD a low scoring 9yo
JESSIE ALLEN underraced 11yo

If nothing has much class
It could be won by the fittest
ISLE OF DREAMS is a 4yo filly
She has 39 days absence here
There are far fitter profiles about
And she has had just 7 runs now
BRIDGETOWN is 4 years old
He has raced twice in 6 months
I would see that as a concern
And stall 1 may not help either
KOROPICK is a beatable 8yo

Going with fit in form profiles

STROXX has to be considered
Given the fittest profile in the race

LORD OF THE GLEN can win
He's been running well enough
But he can easily blow the start 
And he is so cold in the market

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet STROXX 9/2 +

£2.00 Win Bet LORD OF THE GLEN 11/2-5/1



 
 
Bath 5.20

4/1 Hot Hot Hot, 5/1 Atyaaf, 5/1 But You Said
5/1 Pastfact, 7/1 Fossos, 8/1 Big Time Maybe
9/1 We're Reunited, 10/1 Hope Springs
12/1 Darcy's Rock, 20/1 Thegreyvtrain
66/1 Mais Oui Marlene.

5f Handicap

Fitness based preview

PASTFACT is an 8yo
Just one run in a couple of months
ATYAAF a 7yo is not dissimilar
DARCYS ROCK is only a 3yo
Has not done enough yet
BUT YOU SAID an older mare
Has raced just once since April

HOT HOT HOT is a positive
Drawn on the wide outside though
FOSSOS has the fittest profile
Hoping that gets at least a place

Selection

£4.00 Each Way FOSSOS 8/1

£2.00 Win Bet HOT HOT HOT 4/1






 
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  

Wimbledon
 
Mens Singles
  
Matteo Berrentini has covid
And he has been withdrawn

I've not had any bets myself
Did think about a Djokovic bet
Expecting him to win it again
But this has passed me by now 
DJOKOVIC is 1.75 on Betfair  
Have no plans to bet him now 


Womens

Do not know enough really

Iva Swiatek could easily win
But she can not keep winning

Could make her a saver bet

Could go for a split stake bet

£6 Win Ons Jabeur 6/1
£4 Win Iva Swiatek 7/4

One thing puts me off this

Petra Kvitova

Fast ground sun on her back
She is overpriced around 18/1

I think she will win Quarter 2
It's not an easy quarter to win  
Petra Kvitova around 3/1 to win
If she does managed to win this
We could witness this semi final

Petra Kvitova v Iva Swiatek

Like I said before
Do not know enough really
But if you gave me a free bet
I would stake this on Betfair


Staked to £10

£4.80 Petra Kvitova at 18.00

£3.70 Iva Swiatek at 2.7

£1.50 Ons Jabeur at 7.2


Petra Kvitova returns £76 profile
Cash back if Iva Swiatek wins it
Cash back if Ons Jabeur wins it

So we get 13/2 Petra Kvitoiv
Money back on two players
Who are 1st and 2nd in market

That would be my tenner bet





Ante Post

Saturday

Coral Charge



Sandown 1.50
 
11/4 Raasel 4/1 Mitbaahy 6/1 Equilateral 
7/1 Arecibo 7/1 Justanotherbottle 7/1 Nymphadora
8/1 Existent 10/1 Method 12/1 Guilded
12/1 Tippy Toes 25/1 Mo Celita 

Group 3 race (5f)

With 4 days to go

There are 11 runners

So a small field is likely

The draw is unknown

The ground is unclear

As are running plans too


Number of runs

51 Arecibo
50 Justanotherbottle
26 Equilateral
16 Existent
16 Mo Celita
14 Guilded
14 Raasel
10 Tippy Toes
9 Nymphadora
9 Mitbaahy 
8 Method

Past winners
Had the following career runs
18 7 6 25 6 11 10 6 7 12 7 10 9 6 10

Horses with 6-12 career starts
Have a very smart record in this

 
The second statistical clue

No horse aged 7 or more
Has even won this Group sprint
All 45 that tried since 1997 lost

JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE is 8

ARECIBO is a 7 year old

EQUILATERAL is also a 7yo
Comes here on the bounce too
Having raced once in 15 months

METHOD is a 4yo
He's raced once in 350 days now
Could easily be underraced in this

EXISTENT has 16 runs
Not in the ideal range for this
The past 4 year old winners
Had 7 14 9 15 8 10 11 races
EXISTENT with 16 runs now
Has more runs than all of those

MO CELITA also has this profile
She looks beatable on the ratings

TIPPY TOES is a 3yo
Comes from a 5f handicap

Renewals since 2003 show
Horses from 5f handicaps
Have a winless 0-18 record 
TIPPY TOES fails this angle

GUILDED is a 3yo
She has 14 career starts
Past winners aged 3
Had 6 6 12 4 7 6 12 6 9 9 6 runs
GUILDED has 2 more than all of them
Don't see her as a negative though
But she is not in the best range

NYMPHADORA is a 3yo filly

She is probably shortlistable
But only had 2 races this season
The past 3yo fillies to win this
Did have 3 or more recent races

RAASEL is a 5yo

He is a danger and shortlistable
  
MITBAAHY
 
He is a 3yo

Won the Scurry Stakes

Horses aged 3
Coming from this race
Won this race in these years
2005 2011 2015 2017 2019

Horses with 6-12 races are best
He is in the perfect range with 9

He looks the perfect type for this


Provisional Selection

MITBAAHY 4/1

*******************************************************
*******************************************************