10 Previews 
0 Account Bet
 

No Account bet      



Preview Selections
 
Cartmel 1.39
Tardree 9/4
Win Bet

Chepstow 1.46
£7.00 Win Bet Destiny's Spirit  7/1
£3.00 Win Bet Gumais 9/4

Epsom 2.05
£8.00 Win Bet Phinow  2/1
£2.00 Win Bet Thisismydream 2/1

Downpatrick 2.25
Alexharwill  6/1-13/2 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Chepstow 2.56
£6.00 Win Bet Clashaniska  8/1
£4.00 Place Bet Eye Of The Water 6/4

Downpatrick 3.00
£6.00 Win Bet  Eco Pete 11/8
£4.00 Place Bet Desertmore House 6/4

Downpatrick 3.35 
£5.00 Win Bet Kilbarry Chianti 6/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Sphagnum 1/1

Epsom 3.50
Psyche 9/1-10/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Roscommon 4.20
Greenland 10/11-1/1
Win Bet

Ripon 5.26
Just Hiss 15/8-7/4
Win Bet







Today's Message 
 
10 Previews

No tub thumping blockbuster 
More like a fishing expedition
With a few holes in the net too

Happily take a winning best bet
Within a break level message


That may be asking quite a lot
Been quite difficult to finish this
Without being forced to delay it





Today's Best Bet


Downpatrick 2.25

ALEXHARWILL 6/1-13/2

Each Way 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








Underneath The Message

 
Cartmel 1.39
Tardree 9/4
£15 Each Way
 
This one down to profiling
The clear best profile horse 
Taking on a generic failure
There are some dangers

Going for £15 each way 2/1
Just as happy going win bet
Most people will choose this
With 2 places this is my bet



Chepstow 1.46
Win Bet Destiny's Spirit  7/1
Saver Bet Gumais 9/4-5/2

Going off message here
Gumais may be improving
But hardly a safe profile

Probably will be outpaced
Before staying on strongly
Suggest the win and saver 
But I'm going this direction

Gumais 5/2 

£12 each way single

 
 
Downpatrick 2.25
Alexharwill  6/1-13/2  
£25 Win Bet

Similar to yesterdays best bet
His course + distance figures
Good enough to take this race
Should stake each way 1-2-3-4
That is the suggested staking
But win only bet for me to £25






Yesterday's Summary 
 
Much much better yesterday
Unbeaten message W W W P
POETS DAWN a lovely winner
Never put a foot wrong all day
Just a nice confidence booster






PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
   



Cartmel 1.39

11/8 Bella Bliss, 5/2 Tardree, 7/2 Zumbi
13/2 Let Me Be, 16/1 Having A Barney.

Novice Hurdle 2m 6f

BELLA BLISS is a mare
She is coming up 5f in distance

Novice Hurdles 2m 5f +
Any time of the year
Mares aged 5
Coming from 2m 2f or less
Running within 7 weeks
Have a 0-52 record in them
BELLA BLISS fails this stat

ZUMBI has a good chance

TARDREE the best profile

Similar races show
Horses aged 8
Winning a Novice last time
Have a superb 10-23  record 
Those like him running within 2 weeks
Have a 2-4 record in similar races
TARDREE is the best profile horse

Could have a saver bet
ZUMBI is a bit on the short side
Going with a win bet on Tardree
Who has best profile + numbers

Selection

TARDREE 9/4

Win Bet







Chepstow 1.46

 5/2 Gumais, 11/4 Coco Hill, 7/2 Wedgewood
8/1 Alainn Tu, 9/1 Miss Helen, 12/1 Star Adaay
12/1 Destiny's Spirit, 20/1 Skybluegold.

Nursery (5f)

Low grade race

Unusually half of the field
Drops down from 7f or more
Which is not an ideal profile

GUMAIS is one of those
But so is his market rival
And I wanted him on side
As he looks the class horse

WEDGEWOOD is a filly
Rated only 45 she is limited
STAR ADAAY lacks positives
MISS HELEN offers nothing
SKYBLUEGOLD is down 3f
ALAINN TU not too interesting

DESTINY'S SPIRIT can go well
Only has to drop down a furlong
Which cold quite easily suit him
Majority of his biggest rivals
Have to come down 2 furlongs
I like him with a saver on Gumais

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet DESTINY'S SPIRIT 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet GUMAIS 9/4-5/2






Epsom 2.05

7/4 Bonita B, 11/4 Phinow, 5/1 Silver Kitten
11/2 Thismydream, 8/1 Harb, 16/1 Showdiemlad.

3yo Handicap 6f

Class 4

PHINOW is topweight
He looks the class horse

Official Ratings

76 Phinow
71 Harb
66 Bonita B
65 Silver Kitten
65 Thismydream
62 Showdiemlad

If we bet the two topweights

PHINOW 
HARB

We have the only 2 horses
Who are not going up in class

They would only have to beat
Horses rated 66 or lower here

BONITA B one of those
She is not going to improve
She has raced 32 times already
Highly unusual for a 3 year old
Never been rated higher than 67
All her wins are in Class 6 grade
When she runs in Class  or higher
BONITA B has a 0-22 record

In her favour she is consistent
She is fit and running very well
That may well be enough to win
But I prefer do the classier pair
THISISMYDREAM is respected
Could win and a legitimate threat

PHINOW is the main selection
Ran a career best two runs ago
Made him a negative last time
Failed a dreadful draw statistic
Has to prove he handles the track
That will be a known unknown  
But on class I think he can win

HARB is a non runner

This is a replacement bet

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet PHINOW  2/1
£2.00 Win Bet THISISMYDREAM 4/1







Downpatrick 2.25

100/30 Happaugue, 9/2 Darkest Hour, 6/1 Jazz Ranger
8/1 Miss Louise, 8/1 Y Fyn Duw A Fydd, 9/1 Alexharwill
10/1 I Don't Get It, 14/1 Ask The Leader, 18/1 Lesssaidthebetter
20/1 Hillary John, 20/1 Pak Army, 25/1 Woodstream Lad
33/1 Like A G Six, 33/1 Unlaoised, 40/1 Rio Biumoso.
 
Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

Looks very unpleasant
But may well be a soft underbelly
Seems lots of deadwood in this

HAPPAUGUE may well take this
But I just wanted more positives 
Sired by a only a miler on the flat
Who himself was out of a sprinter
His mother was also a flat miler
Who was out of a sprinter/miler

If you look at his sires record
His National Hunt runners so far
That raced over 2m 1f and more
Have a winless 0-26 record 
HAPPAUGUE is rejected

Uncomfortable about a few
Who have heavy recent defeats
I DON'T GET IT ran 10 days ago
But was beaten 42 lengths there
ASK THE LEADER ran 6 days ago
Beaten over 50 lengths in that
Neither look safe enough bets

HILARY JOHN is an unraced 11yo
LESSSAIDTHEBETTER is risky
Just looks so short of recent runs
MISS LOUISE a low weighted mare
Not convinced she has the class

JAZZ RANGER is a 10yo
Very exposed up in distance
Has won once in 7 years now
Might win but usually best to avoid

Y FYN DUW A FYDD is a mare
Do we really want  a topweight mare ?
Who is going up 3f in distance too

DARKEST HOUR proven here
May just need to repeat last time
To get him in to the 4 placings
Right behind him here last time

ALEXHARWILL finished in 4th
That was his best run of the year
May have been running himself fit
And has has every chance in this
Go back to this race last season
ALEXHARWILL was a close 2nd
He has raced 5 times at this track
Finishing a consistent  4 3 3 2 2  

ALEXHARWILL 1st choice
DARKEST HOUR 2nd choice

Hard to stake
Do we save and if we do
Should that be win or place ?

Selection 
 
ALEXHARWILL 6/1-13/2

Each Way 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Chepstow 2.56

7/2 Evasive Power, 5/1 Swiss Pride, 6/1 Eye Of The Water
7/1 Hagia Sophia, Mumayaz, 8/1 Rhubarb, 9/1 Handytalk
10/1 Clashaniska, 14/1 Bluebell Way, Diamond Cottage
25/1 The Cola Kid.

6f Handicap

Going to divide the field
Into two separate groups

Those with 2 + runs this month
Those without these 2 recent runs

There are enough horses
Who have several recent races
To expect the winner to come
From one of those fitter profiles
On a track that exposes horses
For not being fit or in form enough

HANDYTALK a good example
He is a 9yo with 1 run in 90 days
That would concern me in a race
With so many being far busier

Opposing these horses
Having under 2 runs in 4 weeks

HANDYTALK
SWISS PRIDE
MUMAYAZ
EVASIVE POWER
BLUEBELL WAY
DIAMOND COTTAGE

THE COLA KID ran 11 days ago
Needed a better last run to pick
 
HAGIA SOPHIA is a filly aged 4
Not sure she has the class rated 52

RHUBARB ran 2 days ago over 5f
Hard to read profile for older mare
Has the worst of the draw as well

EYE OF THE WATER is a 6yo
Down in trip has a big weight
He last won a race 3 years ago
He is only 3lbs lower than in 2019
But has momentum on his side
And his figures say every chance

CLASHANISKA has a chance
Little backclass but in right grade
And has the fittest profile here

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet CLASHANISKA 8/1

£4.00 Place Bet EYE OF THE WATER  6/4









Downpatrick 3.00

11/8 Eco Pete, 7/4 Wee Willie Nail, 12/1 Blackstone Cliff
14/1 Desertmore House, Who's Houdini, 18/1 City Limits,
20/1 Mollys Dream, 25/1 Total Glory, Wee Rupert,
33/1 Yolande Court.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 6f

The market suggests a match

WEE WILLIE NAIL is a 4yo
He has just 3 career starts
He has a  101 day absence
 
April to September
Downpatrick 
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
With over 7 runners
Horses aged 4
Under 3 career starts
Have a 0-81 record
WEE WILLIE NAIL fails this
MOLLYS DREAM fails this

Downpatrick 
Maiden Hurdles
2m 4f and more
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Over 21 days absence
Have a 0-22 record
WEE WILLIE NAIL fails this

ECO PETE in contrast
Older and placed here last time
Has the best figure in the race
And looks the safer of the pair

Several of the other runners  
Have just 1 bad run in months
Offering little reason to like them

WHO'S HOUDINI can improve
Needs to but ran well last time
There is a case for a place bet
But on Racing Post Ratings
ECO PETE is 35lbs clear of him

Having said that
There is a danger of overating him
ECO PETE was not an expensive type
Would be more comfortable with two
In a win and place bet combination
DESERTMORE HORSE a place bet
Massive upgrade in jockey today
Ran well on debut here over shorter

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet ECO PETE 11/8

£4.00 Place Bet DESERTMORE HORSE 6/4








Downpatrick 3.35

 5/2 Getaway Goldie, 7/2 Sphagnum, 6/1 Rare Conor
13/2 Kilbarry Chianti, 8/1 Greenandwhitearmy, 14/1 Diamondinthemud
14/1 Different Strokes, 16/1 Ask Charlie, 16/1  Make The Switch
20/1 Happy Lad, Magic Sea, 33/1 Gaius, 33/1  Our Patron Saint.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 6f

GETAWAY GOLDIE is well treated
The market is reflecting this well

But she is a mare
She is coming from a chase
And hard to judge her here

What we know from past renewals
You want a horse with 3 factors

Between 4-13 hurdle runs
Under 17 career starts
From a handicap hurdle 
GETAWAY GOLDIE does not
But she should be shortlisted

DIFFERENT STROKES is rejected
He also comes from a chase race
If I was betting a last time chaser
It would be the favourite instead
DIAMONDINTHEUD is a mare
Happy to pass up from a 2m race

MAKE THE SWITCH is rejected
With just 3 previous hurdle runs 

Horses with over 13 hurdles
Have a 0-47 record in this race
The following are too exposed

RARE CONOR 
GREENANDWHITEARMY
HAPPY LAD
MAGIC SEA

ASK CHARLIE ran 6 days ago
Not sure if he did enough there
His trainer have had just 2 winners
I'd have preferred a better stable

Shortlist
GETAWAY GOLDIE
SPHAGNUM
KILBARRY CHIANTI
 
Maybe best to save on the favourite
But she is plenty short enough now
And does have a big weight in this
Guessing the staking

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet KILBARRY CHIANTI 6/1

£5.00 Place Bet SPHAGNUM 1/1






Epsom 3.50

 4/1 Fast Steps, 5/1 Mascat, 5/1 Saratoga Gold
7/1 Thibault, 8/1 Psyche, 8/1 Sarvan, 9/1 Captain Haddock
12/1 Magna Moralia, 14/1 Way Of Life, 16/1 Furzig
16/1 Restorer, 25/1 Heart Of Soul.

12f Handicap

Amateur riders

THIBAULT appears fancied
But 13 days off as a 9 year old
Makes him took a bit too risky
With a jockey with a 0-8 record

Past renewals show
Horses aged 5 or more
Under 3 runs in the last 12 weeks
Have a 0-27 record in this race
The following all fail this

HEART OF SOUL 
SARVAN
FURZIG
MAGNA MORALIA

RESTORER is a 10 year old
Not enough to tempt me
CAPTAIN HADDOCK a 5yo
Faces 7 weeks off the track
WAY OF LIFE not well treated

FAST STEPS is a 4yo
He has to come from a 1m 2f race
Horses aged 4 doing this
Have a 0-18 record in this race

They have won elsewhere
But 4yo's winning over 10f
Trying to win again over 12f
Only managed it with under 12 runs
FAST STEPS has now had 15 races
Not as solid as I would want here
MASCAT has been hurdling
Not ideal and plenty of weight

SARATOGA GOLD is a positive
But one of the weaker jockeys
Who has an overall 0-9 record
PSYCHE comes from the same race
Felt he had a sound overall chance

Selection

PSYCHE 9/1-10/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4





Roscommon 4.20

10/11 Greenland, 7/4 Ma Belle Artiste, 14/1 Kings Time
20/1 Feach Amach, 33/1 Broad Daylight, 100/1 Calamint
100/1 Fairfield Girl, Gustav Ucicky.

7f race (2yo)

GREENLAND sets the standard

Aidan's coly has 3 career runs
Progressive 84 87 97 numbers

But he runs into a smart filly
MA BELLE ARTISTE has 1 run
Expensive filly from Joseph
Talk of her running in Group 1's

But she still has to improve
She won well on her debut
But a few of her main rivals
Disappointed in that race
She should have a big chance
But staying with Aidan here
Who has more experience
And is now a backable price
KINGS TIME is unraced
Asking a lot to beat this pair

Selection

GREENLAND 10/11-1/1

Win Bet







Ripon 5.26

6/4 Masque Of Anarchy, 2/1 Just Hiss
11/2 Rocket Dancer 10/1 Quoteline Direct
16/1 Point Of Honour, 25/1 Dream Point.

Handicap 1m 2f 

Amateur Jockeys 1m3f

JUST HISS is the class horse
But he is also a 9 year old 

Recent winners of this
Included winners aged 10 10 8 9   
Several older types have won this 

He has tons of backclass
His rating has been as high as 91
Now older he looks a 66-73 horse

MASQUE OF ANARCHY is a 6yo
After 23 runs his official rating
Has never gone higher than 61

Yes he is on a hat trick
In form and running career bests
But those wins were class 6 races
JUST HISS was one of his victims
But I would not worry about that
He had a month off after a victory
Has a weight pull in the race too
JUST HISS also offers track form

If the class horses does not win
There are several lower weights
Who have a chance on their day
JUST HISS would be my choice
Only gives 2lbs to his main rival

Selection

JUST HISS 15/8-7/4

Win Bet

*******************************************************
*******************************************************