3 Previews 
1 Account Bet  




Account Bet
 
Wetherby 1.45

SON OF THE SOMME 9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5





Today's Message 



Returning to the account
But not in the target race

Not able to do F.B.A today
Just 3 in depth Handicaps
Prioritising the staked bet

3 giant puzzles today


Tomorrow

Will cover softer races
Let it evolve naturally
Before a Saturday bet  



Thyestes National



Gowran Park 3.05

£7.00 Win Bet DIOL KER 7/1-13/2-6/1

£1.50 Win Bet EKLAT DE RIRE 6/1-7/1

£1.50 Win Bet BRAESIDE 6/1-13/2

Been here before many times
You do a high quality preview
Packed with generic statistics
You have a confident selection
You can not see an alternative
But the bet you fall in love with
Is uncomfortably undersized

My angles and all the analysis
Lead me the one conclusion
DOIL KER should be winning
But he is not a very big horse
The hustle and bustle a worry
So I'm rejecting him each way
As can not be sure he will cope 

So Pivoting

To a different race




Wetherby 1.45

SON OF THE SOMME 9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Tough race

But 5 places available

Most of his dangers

Younger and lighter raced





Preview Selections


Gowran Park 1.00
Brosna Rocco 6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Wetherby 1.45
Son Of The Somme 9/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Gowran Park 3.05
£7.00 Win Bet Diol Ker  7/1-13/2-6/1
£1.50 Win Bet Eklat De Rire 6/1-7/1
£1.50 Win Bet Braeside 6/1 -13/2







Yesterday's Summary  

Covered 5 previews yesterday
Ended with a L W W L L record
We started off with an outsider
Cuban Hope finished in fourth
Whilst that officially is a loser
There were 4 places available
Anyone who went to find that
Would have avoided that loser
The next 2 selections both won
Short prices still but important
Steadied the ship avoided a flop
The Catterick message choice
Went down with a messy stake
Got the generic statistic beaten
Validated why we played there
I could so easily have nailed this
But going for the winning horse
The market signposted I should
Maybe I made a mess of that one
Nothing from the last race either
Built a little profit before the last 2
Did not manage to increase that
Therefore finished a bit behind 
 
 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS

  

Gowran Park 1.00

9/2 Kashi, 11/2 Brosna Rocco, 6/1 Saga Aravis
7/1 Coole Arcade, 7/1 Fox Le Bel, 14/1 Baile Mhuirne
14/1 Shantou Sisu, 16/1 Feathered Gold, Muntahez
16/1 The Toothpicker, Uncle Gerhard, 20/1 Extreme Cacao
25/1 Aqua Court, 25/1 Berliet Express, 25/1 Grand Revival, 
25/1 Hollywood West, One Horse Army, 25/1 Westy Fox, 
33/1 Daddy Curtuis, Windsor Diamond.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

Big field

But strong angles
And plenty can't win

The problem here

The same type always wins
But just the 5 past renewals
Is that enough to be safe ?

Ideal profile

Horses aged 6-7-8-9
Under 20 career starts
With 6-13 hurdle runs
Running within 8 weeks
Carrying 11st 4lbs or less

All 5 past winners
Shared the above profile
In a strong 5-9 record

These horses 
All share this profile
 
11/2 Brosna Rocco
6/1 Saga Aravis
7/1 Coole Arcade,
20/1 Hollywood 
20/1 West Westy Fox
25/1 Berliet Express,

Horses with under 6 hurdle runs
Have a 0-36 record in this race
Several outsiders fail this profile
 
EXTREME CACAO also fails it
Been a bit of money for him
But do not see a safe profile

GRAND REVIVAL fails this too
I don't want a raw 4yo in this

UNCLE GERHARD with 5 runs
Also looks a bit short of assets

Horses under 6 years old
Have a 0-23 record in this

KASHI is a 5yo
THE TOOTHPICKER is too

Do they offer us enough
To ignore the age statistics ?
Going to say probably not
This angle is the reason why

January
Handicap Hurdles 2m
Horses aged 5
Over 10 career starts
Carrying 11st 5lbs or more
Have won 11 individual races
But in fields of 12 or more
They have a nasty 0-60 record
Big field bad ground hard race
I don't want a big weight 5yo
KASHI and the other 5 year olds
Are rejected in a race this bif

Taking out the long absences
FOX LE BEL may lack the class
In a race higher weights do best
FEATHERED GOLD is respected
But not really convincing enough
SHANTOUR SISU is 10 years old
Exposed when not that were won

Shortlisting 3

All share the ideal profile

Providing all 5 past winners
Doing it from just 9 runners

BROSNA ROCCO
SAGA ARAVIS
COOLE ARCADE
  
SAGA ARAVIS has 13 runs
Bit exposed over hurdles
Career best last time out
But up in weights for this

COOLE ARCADE is an 8yo
His chance depends here
On the drop in trip suiting
But his profile is acceptable
And recent upgraded stables
 
BROSNA ROCCO a 7yo mare
She won nicely last time out
Mares have done well in this
Older mares winning last time
Also score well in other races

Selection

BROSNA ROCCO 6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Wetherby 1.45

5/2 Rock Of Star, 7/2 Walk In My Shoes
11/2 Son Of The Somme, 7/1 Annies Prayer
10/1 Keep It Brief, 11/1 The Jad Factor, 14/1 Large Action
16/1 Way Past Midnight, 20/1 Contrebasse, Ettila De Sivola
25/1 Azof Des Mottes, Craggaknock, 33/1 Sir Jack West
50/1 Burdigala, 50/1 Coisa Blanco, 50/1 Great Raffles
50/1 Kilcaragh Boy.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

Big field
Lots of deadwood

ROCK OF STAR is a 5 year old
He has a lot of weight 12st 4lbs

What I dislike about his profile
He's raced just 4 times before
And has a short 10 day break
Never liked the inexperienced 
When coming back very quickly

The following 6 month stat
The early months of the year
Show no 5 year olds did this
With anything like his weight

Go back to 2000
January to July
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 5
Under 5 career runs
Running within 12 days
Carrying 10st 13lbs or more
Return a 0-30 record in them
ROCK OF STAR fails this stat

No 5 year old
Has won this race before

No horse with under 5 runs
has won this race before

ROCK OF STAR fails this
LARGE ACTION also fails  
WAY PAST MIDNIGHT does too

WALK IN MY SHOES a mare
Has only had  2 career runs
Can't have her from Jonjo
CONTREBASE has 98 days off
KEEP IT BRIEF is a 5 year old
Don't see much I like there
ETTILA DE SIVOLA not first choice
Spending his last 3 years chasing

ANNIES PRAYER is respected
I'd have liked another race
But his profile is not too bad

THE JAD FACTOR shortlisted
Stayed on well last time out
In what was a lifetime best
 
SON OF THE SOMME a 7yo
Should have won last time
Big distance back to third
Looks quite well handicapped  
 
Selection

SON OF THE SOMME 9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Gowran Park 3.05

5/1 Longhouse Poet, 7/1 Braeside
7/1 Ontheropes 8/1 Diol Ker, 8/1 Eklat De Rire
8/1 Escaria Ten 10/1 Coko Beach, 12/1 Mister Fogpatches
14/1 Chris's Dream, 14/1 Death Duty, 16/1 Agusta Gold
16/1 Smoking Gun, 20/1 Brahma Bull, 20/1 Class Conti
20/1 Ex Patriot, 20/1 Franco De Port, 33/1 Foxy Jacks
33/1 Scarlet And Dove.

Graded Handicap Chase 3m 1f

Official Ratings
Past winners
138 149 152 137 
154 139 145 142 
124 125 119

No horse won this race
From a rating of 155 or more
CHRIS'S DREAM is rated 162
Poor seasonal debut last time
Does not offer nearly enough 

BRAHMA BULL runs off 156
Higher than any past winners
On the exposed side as well
 
DEATH DUTY is an 11yo
Has raced once in 14 months
Would see him as vulnerable
 
ESCARIA TEN has 297 days off

Past winners
Had the following absences
25 49 23 25 25 25 54 47 19 30 25
Horses absent over 8 weeks
Have a 0-21 record in this race 
ESCARIA TEN fails this angle

January
Handicap Chases 2m 6f +
Listed and graded class
Horses absent over 72 days
Have a 0-49 record in them
ESCARIA TEN fails this angle
BRACE YOURSELF does too
    
This is a better angle

January to May
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded races
Run over any distance
Horses under 9 years old
Absent more than 158 days
Have a 0-76 record in the
Those aged 8 were 0-51
ESCARIA TEN fails this

If you also look at his sire
Sires runners over 2m 1f +
Running in Class 2 or higher
Absent over 24 days
You find a 0-48 record
ESCARIA TEN fails this too

LONGHOUSE POET 
Been an Ante Post gamble
But has something to prove
Coming from a 2m 4f race

Horses from 2m 4f or shorter
Do not have a strong record

They are 0-35 in this race

They are 3-81 in other races

No horse from 2m 4f or shorter
Won with 1 run that season (0-12) 
LONGHOUSE POET does this
 
Horses from 2m 4f or shorter 
Carrying  9st 11lbs or more
Have a modest 1-78 record  
LONGHOUSE POET fails this
DEFI BLEU fails this as well
 
LONGHOUSE POET from 2m 4f
Fails a couple of the above stats
He steps up over 5f in distance
With just 1 poor run in 13 months

Go back to 1999

January and February
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded races
Run over 3 miles and more
Horses aged 8
Under 24 career runs
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Beaten last time out
Return a 0-57 record
LONGHOUSE POET fails this
Can not match him to a winner

Past winners
Runs that season
4 1 1 2 2 1 3 4 1 3 5 2 4 2 5

Horses with 1 run this season
Tended to be the lightly raced  

Horses with 1 run this season
Beaten too far last time out
CLASS CONTI
AGUSTA GOLD
 
Horses aged 7
Underperform in these races
Unless they are a certain type

Horses aged 7
Have won this 4 times in 30 years
Winning in 1988 - 2003 - 2006 - 2018
They had 6 8 6 8  Chase runs
They had 10st 3lbs or less weight

Similar races show
Horses aged 7
Beaten last time out
Have a 2-44 record

Since 2010 they are 0-38
With over 7 career starts
They have a 0-39 record

The right type of 7 year olds
Are very lightly raced types
Ideally come off a victory

COKO BEACH the wrong type

FRANCO DE PORT is a 7yo
None had as many runs as him
Heavy defeat in a Grade 1 race
Not really a suitable preparation
 
He has had 8 chase runs now
Is that too many for a 7 year old
Who carries 11st 3lbs in weight

Go back to 1999
January February March
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded races
Run over 3 miles and more
Horses aged 7
Over 5 chase runs
Carrying 11st 1lbs or more
Have a 0-90 record in them
FRANCO DE PORT fails this
Can not match him to a winner

SCARLET AND DOVE a mare
Does not make much appeal

Go back to 1999 
Handicap Chases over 3m +
Listed and Graded races
Any time of year
Mares aged 8 or more
Over 7 career runs
Over 5 chase races
Beaten last time
Carrying 9st 6lbs or more
Have a poor 1-91 record
Only winner Cabaret Queen
In the 2020 Kerry National
Run far later in the season
SCARLET AND DOVE is unsafe
Don't like her on breeding stats
  
Horses sired by Jeremy
Running over 2m 7f or more
Running in class 4 or higher
With 8 or more runners
Have a 1-56 record so far
They are 0-27 on soft/heavy
SCARLET AND DOVE is rejected

EX PATRIOT is a 9 year old
Raced only once in 15 months
After 29 career starts already
Surely too exposed for that
When also from an unsafe sire
Elusive Pimpernel offspring
Running over 2m 3f or more
In Class 2 or higher grade
Have a 0-18 record so far

BRAESIDE is an 8yo
He has had 18 career runs

Past renewals show 
Horses under 9 years old
Over 13 lifetime starts
Have a 0-44 record in this
BRAESIDE fails this angle
Would not hang him on that

He is also in a a weight range
That have not won this recently
Horses with 10st 8lbs - 11st 3lbs
Have a 0-64 record in the past
Again not a hanging offence

His trial race interests me
Comes from the Paddy Power
Run at Leopardstown late December

Horses coming from that race
Have a 2-58 record in this race
But both winners did not finish

Horses who got round
In the Paddy Power Chase
And came here are 0-46
BRAESIDE the 4th to try
Finishing 4th in that handicap
Maybe this comes too quickly
Not a negative but not really safe

FOXY JACK fails this too
Finishing in the Paddy Power

Past renewals show 
Horses under 9 years old
Over 13 lifetime starts
Have a 0-44 record in this
FOXY JACK has now had 26
Don't want an exposed horse
When under 9 years of age
 
Horses under 10 years old
With over 17 lifetime races
Have a 0-40 record in this
SMOKING GUN fails this stat
He has 60 days absence too

MISTER FOGPATCHES an 8yo
Fails the same 0-40 statistic
He is an 8yo with 23 career runs

No horse under 10 years old
Won with over 13 runs (0-40)

No horse under 9 years old
Horses under 10 years old
Won over 17 runs (0-44)
MISTER FOGPATCHES fails both
COCO BEACH does as well

January to July
Handicap Chases
Listed and Grade class
Any distance 
Horses aged 8
Over 23 career runs
Absent over 42 days
Return a 0-98 record
MISTER FOGPATCHES fails this
 
ONTHEROPES is an 8yo
Comes from a Grade 1 chase
 
Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded class
Any distance
Any time of year
With over 10 runners
Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from  a Grade 1 chase
Running within 56 days
With under 15 career starts
Have a 0-26 career record
Not strong but none have won
At any time of the season
 
Shortlist

DIOL KER is an 8yo
Having 15 runs is acceptable
When you factor in his weight
He only has 9st 13lbs to carry
Has not always looks a natural
Fell early in his 1st and 5th chase
But he is still quite unexposed
This season started at Cork
Fell on his seasonal debut
He then too on Bob Olinger
Effectively on his seasonal debut
His defeat at Navan 2 runs ago
Only came 14 days after than run
He could have bounced there
Second last time out was fine
My main worry about him
Does not look the biggest horse
Will his jumping hold up in this
 
EKLAT DE RIRE is an 8yo
Pulled up in the Hennessy last time
But comes here after a break
And started favourite in that race
When too short of experience
Hard to judge him statistically
Not many 8 year olds have won
Facing 61 days off the track
But only 5 days ago on Saturday
Royal Pagaille overcame that
Winning the Peter Marsh Chase
With a very similar profile to him
EKLAT DE RIRE is a positive


DIOL KER 

A big "if"

But if he can jump today
He looks thrown in here

Rated 15lbs lower 
Then his hurdle rating of 150

Lovely light weight as well

Will this 3m extra distance
Assist him in his jumping ?

Just his size bothering me

Decided to go win only
And have 2 savers too
One from the shortlist
One from the gut feeling

 
Selection

£7.00 Win Bet DIOL KER 6/1

£1.50 Win Bet EKLAT DE RIRE 6/1-7/1

£1.50 Win Bet BRAESIDE 6/1 
  
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