4 Previews
0 Account Bet  
 
No Staked Bet





Today's Message

Decided against a bet today
Nominating this as my best
Unstaked but my preference



Catterick 2.50

£7.50 Win Bet BILLAMS LEGACY 7/2-100/30

£2.50 Win Bet BETTY BALOO 3/1




Back up to Normal Speed now
Messages go through to Sunday
Next Monday will be a day off
Then Cheltenham 2020 begins



4 Previews

Starts and finishes
With 2 Lingfield races


No idea how they will do
Staking is just guesswork 
Message filling races really

The better work
Comes from Previews 2 + 3
Opposing the favourite in both



Catterick 2.50

£7.50 Win Bet BILLAMS LEGACY 7/2-100/30

£2.50 Win Bet BETTY BALOO 3/1
 
Taking on the favourite in this
Happy with my pair and prices
But this is quite a smaller field 
Were using Catterick knowledge
That I hope will support us again


  

Fontwell 3.15

£6.50 Win Bet FORWARD PLAN 8/1

£2.50 Win Bet MAKE MY DAY 3/1

£2.00 Win Bet GIN COCO 7/2-4/1


Favourite fails two angles
One is a mini 0-20 track angle
The other a 0-101 sire statistic
So hoping this does not backfire
I do not like the above staking
But with an element of guesswork
Decided not to commit to 1 horse


Message Choice

Catterick 2.50

£7.50 Win Bet BILAMS LEGACY 7/2-100/30

£2.50 Win Bet BETTY BALOO 3/1





Preview Selections  
 
Lingfield 1.50
£6.00 Win Bet Salonica 6/1-11/2
£4.00 Place Bet Away Wit Da Fairys 5/4

Catterick 2.50
£7.50 Win Bet Billams Legacy 100/30-7/2
£2.50 Win Bet Betty Baloo 3/1

Fontwell 3.15
£6.50 Win Bet Forward Plan 8/1
£2.50 Win Bet Make My Day 3/1
£2.00 Win Bet Gin Coco 7/2-4/1

Lingfield 4.45
£3.00 Each Way Henry The Fifth 14/1 
£4.00 Win Bet  Reeceltic 5/4





Yesterdays Summary  
 
Only the one preview yesterday
Stakes refunded by a saver bet
Warriors Story finished only 4th
Smokey The Bandit placed 2nd
That was enough to return stakes
If you look at my best 3 profiles
We had the 1st 2nd and the 4th
The 25/1 winner was third choice
So felt my angles did well there





PROFILES & PREVIEWS  




Lingfield 1.50

4/1 Cicely, 9/2 Away Wit Da Fairys
5/1 Midgetonamission 11/2 Aurelia Gold, 13/2 Salonica
9/1 El Felicia, 12/1 Lethal Touch, 14/1 The Writer
16/1 Beerenberg, Birkie Girl
 
3yo Handicap 10f

This wont be too much fun

AWAY WIT DA FAIRYS rated 50
Does offer us a decent run 4 days ago
That does often tempt me in these races
But he is only a modest 8th in weights

The top 7 weights
Have a 7lbs class gap
From the bottom 3 weights
That suggests he may be one
That lacks the class for this
And he is drawn in stall one

Horses with under 4 races
Can win but score poorly
Similar races run in March
Since 2011 in this class
Show horses with under 4 runs
Have a modest 1-47 record
THE WRITER has 3 runs
LETHAL TOUCH has 3 runs

THE WRITER is favourite
No real surprise about that
Lots of people like this type

Speculative angle
That questions his draw

Lingfield 10f Handicaps
Under 14 runners
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses under 5 years old
With under 4 career starts
Absent more than 23 days
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Have a modest 1-78 record
The only winner was 2013
When a Godoplhin horse won
THE WRITER is drawn in stall 8
He shares this 1-78 profile
Might win but not my 1st choice

EL FELICIA is a filly
Rejected going up 3f in trip
BIRKIE GIRL lacks class
BEERENBERG is unsafe

Similar races show
Fillies from 8f or shorter
Have a modest 2-70 record
Those running within 26 days
Have a 0-29 record
AURELIA GOLD fails this
EL FELICIA fails this
Those with 9 or more runs
Have a 0-7 record
AURELIA GOLD fails this

CICELY could be the one
But a filly from widest draw

MIDGETONAMISSION a filly
From the second widest draw
And looks extremely exposed

SALONICA has a recent race
But others have more experience
Passed his profile as acceptable

Decided to split stake this
With a win and place saver
From the pair running 4 days ago

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SALONICA 11/2-6/1

£4.00 Place Bet AWAY WIT DA FAIRYS 5/4




Catterick 2.50

5/2 Sweet Auburn, 11/4 Bonne Vitesse
3/1 Betty Baloo, 7/2 Billams Legacy
16/1 Beautiful Mix, 33/1 Au Jus,
50/1 Heaventree.

Mares Novice Hurdle

Looks a 4 horse race
Experience over hurdles
Never a bad idea here

Past hurdle runs

4 Betty Baloo
3 Billams Legacy 
2 Bonne Vitesse
0 Sweet Auburn

Catterick
Mares Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Any time of year
Unraced hurdlers
Have a poor 1-77 record

SWEET AUBURN fails this
She may go and win the race
Especially with a small field
But all her rivals have raced
At least twice over hurdles
SWEET AUBURN is rejected
As are these hurdling debutants
AU JUS
BEAUTIFUL MIX
HEAVENTREE

BONNE VITESSE is a 4yo
She has had 2 hurdle runs now
Better than some less than others

I looked at 4 year olds here
Surprised that 3 won this race
But 2 of these had very recent runs

January to October
Catterick
Mares Novice Hurdles
Any distance in these months
Horses aged 4
Under 4 hurdle races
Absent over 10 days
Have a 0-30 record
BONNE VITESSE fails this

The only 4yo winners
Were those with very recent runs
And plenty of hurdling experience

Right or wrong
Staying with the 2 older horses
With the most hurdling experience

BETTY BALOO
BILAMS LEGACY

BILAMS LEGACY preferred
Has had some settling issues
But that may not be permanent



Selection

£7.50 Win Bet BILAMS LEGACY 7/2-100/30

£2.50 Win Bet BETTY BALOO 3/1
  







Fontwell 3.15

9/4 Gin Coco, 3/1 Jaramillo, Make My Day
11/2 Bobalot, 14/1 Forward Plan, 16/1 Gabriel's Getaway
20/1 Sublime Heights, 33/1 Helios De Grugy
33/1  Telleroftales, 40/1 Major Reward, Staar.



Maiden Hurdle 2m 2f

JARAMILLO is a 4yo

Not sure I'd want that here

Go back to 2010

Fontwell maiden hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 4
Have a 0-20 record
JARAMILLO fails this

He also fails a breeding stat

Horses sired by Oasis Dream
Running over hurdles
Good to soft or worse
Under 4 career starts
Have a 0-101 record so far
JARAMILLO fails this too

The above negative
Drags us into the race
But we can only guess gere
GIN COCO has 597 days off
So he is not far off unreadable
The 2010 winner of this race
Won with 678 days off the track

Maiden Hurdles in March
Show horses aged 5
Just 1 hurdle run
Under 4 career runs
Running within 34 days
Beaten more than a length
Have a 0-81 record in them
BOBALOT shares this profile

Split staking this race 

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet FORWARD PLAN 8/1

£2.50 Win Bet MAKE MY DAY 3/1

£2.00 Win Bet GIN COCO 7/2-4/1





Lingfield 4.45

7/4 Reeceltic, 3/1 Love Poems, 13/2 Ayda
8/1 Schwartz, 11/1 Dancing Master, 14/1 Blue Beret
16/1 Uncle Bernie, 20/1 Henry The Fifth, Yaazaain
25/1 Blue Galaxy, Severus Alexander.

2m Handicap

Probably a race to leave alone
REECELTIC an obvious chance
Has the ability and proven here
But he is a 7 year old
Going up 4f in distance
And has no run in 40 days

Can match him to a winner
And whatever his flaws are
Others have their own issues
LOVE POEMS is an older mare
Topweight and 103 days absence
AYDA another exposed mare
No guarantee or form or fitness
SCHWARTZ is inexperienced
When you factor in 100 days off
And he is not guaranteed to stay
If you look at his sire Kodiac
He has bred 2 mile winners before
But his runners over 1m 5f and more
With under 17 career starts
Have a 0-36 record so far
SCHWARTZ only has 4 runs
UNCLE BERNIE is 12 years old
Hard to like him off 324 days
DANCING MASTER is a 4yo
He's had one poor run in 83 days
Do not like his profile much
Not the biggest of horses either

HENRY THE FIFTH

A long way from a banker
But since gelded last year
He has raced only twice
Entitled to need both runs

Drawn 12 of 12 at Southwell
Drawn 1 of 12 at Southwell
Neither of his last two runs
Were from helpful draws
Had a bit of trouble last time
He could overrun his price here
Not safe but going this way

Selection

£3.00 Each Way HENRY THE FIFTH 14/1-16/1

£4.00 Win Bet REECELTIC 5/4






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES      

 
Tomorrow

Will include 

Boodles Handicap
Imperial Cup 
More race statistics



10 Months ago in this column

Made a controversial comment

"Racing is an exticntion event"

Game a time frame of 7 years   
Repeated it in a later message
Giving racing related reasons

At the time I had no feedback
Certainly nobody in agreement
This is the 3rd time I will say it

I wonder if just a couple of you
Might be drifting to this position
For racing and non racing reasons

No intention of getting political
Just an instinct I've had a while

What is more fact than instinct
This service will not make 6yrs

I am 56 next month
Getting up at stupid o'clock
Failing to take adequate breaks
Not as confident in my health
Not sure what the true price is
About Racings extiction in 6yrs
But purely in terms of the service
I think 2003 is now odds against
I think this is my last flat season

Not been too happy this winter
Found the smaller field madness
The dereliction of early week cards
Just not suitable to our methodology

So I can not wait for the flat season
Choose from a much larger orchard

For 20 long heavy years and more
That label of Marmite followed us
Some loved us others detested us

But the truth of the matter really is
This is a true service for grown up's
Those with some racing knowledge
Keen to discover brand new angles
Together as I find them in real time
Long term members will remember
I used to call those of you marines
This might be our last tour of duty

Despite all the gloom
I feel very confident at the moment
So looking forward to this month 

After Cheltenham
The Midlands National
The following Saturday
The Flat season begins




Cheltenham

6 days away

The most important races ?

I would argue

Leinster National beforehand
As that can pay for Cheltenham

The Midland National afterward
As the best chance of a recovery
If things go wrong at the festival

Other than that 
Just do our best in every race
Hope we had a good festival

Last years results

28 Previews
7 winners
10 Placed returns
11 Losers

I will be happy with that
And take it offered again




Saturday

Ante Post Statistics


Sandown 2.25pm

Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle

5/1 Langer Dan 6/1 Anyharminasking 8/1 Balco Coastal
10/1 Carrarea 10/1 Onemorefortheroad 12/1 Mr Grey Sky
12/1 No Risk des Flos 12/1 Our Jet 12/1 Hystery Bere
14/1 Current Mood 14/1 Samarrive 14/1 Suprise Package
14/1 West To the Bridge 16/1 Miranda 16/1 Monviel
16/1 Calico 16/1 Playful Saint 16/1 Grisbi de Berce
16/1 Hacker des Places 16/1 Lively Citizen 20/1 Dibble Decker
20/1 Up For Parol 20/1 Kihavah 20/1 Mick Maestro
25/1 Destrier 25/1 Fontana Ellissi 25/1 The Grey Falco
25/1 Transatlantic 25/1 Hecouldbetheone 25/1 Zambezi Fix
25/1 Howdyalikemenow 25/1 Hydroplane 25/1 Lebowski
33/1 Farmer's Gamble 33/1 Lucky One

Race Statistics

The last 20 winners of this race
Ran within the previous 92 days

Horses absent over 36 days
Carrying 10st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-58 record in this

Past winners of this race
Had the following hurdle runs
8 12 15 4 5 4 4 19 8 6 5 3 3 9
An exposed winner in 2018
Normally the winners of this
Have under 10 hurdle runs

 Horses with over 9 hurdles
Aged under 8 years old
Have a 0-35 record

 Horses with over 9 hurdles
With 10st 6lbs or more
Have a poor 0-69 record 

Recent winners of this race
Had the following runs that year
3 3 4 8 5 8 4 8 3 6 6 3 3 8
None have won with 0-1-2 runs

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 0-26 record since 1997

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 4-157 record since 2001
All 4 of these winners aged 7 +
Carried 10st 5lbs or less weight

Horses aged 7 or older
Who carry 10st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-101 record in this

Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-44 record in this race

The last 16 winners of this race
Had never won more than twice before
Apart from last year who 2 won in France

Since the 2009 renewal
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Have a 0-37 record in this handicap

Since 2001
Horses from Handicap Hurdles
9 or more previous hurdle runs
Have a 1-94 record since 1997
 
Horses with 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-54 record in this since 2004
Will flesh this race out tomorrow

And other races as well






Cheltenham Tuesday

Few early thoughts

Mouth watering start
Important day to win
Easiest day of the festival
Lose the day means trouble


Supreme Novice Hurdle

5/1 Constitution Hill, 4/1  Dysart Dynamo 11/2 Jonbon
11/2 Sir Gerhard, 8/1 Kilcruit 12/1 Mighty Potter

Running plans unclear
Mullins v Henderson
Both Hendersons should run

Reminds me of the 1988 Olympics
CONSTITUTION HILL is Carl lewis
JONBON more a Ben Johnson type

JONBON 
KILCRUIT

Have 1 extra hurdle run
That could give them the edge
JONBON has the best profile
But it may not be that simple
Looks a day of race decision
How many Mullins will take part
What available place terms are



Arkle Chase

9/4 Edwardstone, 4/1 Blue Lord, 4/1 Riviere D'etel
9/1 Haut En Couleurs, 10/1 Saint Sam, 16/1 Magic Daze

I will probably be with the Irish 
EDWARDTONE an English 8yo
Does not have enough in his profile
To trust a Division 2 English stable
Against the might of Irish 7 year olds

One or both of these
Likely to be the selection

BLUE LORD
RIVER D'ETEL





Ultima Handicap Chase

8/1 Death Duty, 8/1 Does He Know, 10/1 Frontal Assault
12/1 Floueur, 12/1 Noble Yeats, 12/1 Imperial Alcazar
14/1 The Shunter, 14/1 Fury Road, 14/1 Grand Paradis
16/1 Aye Right,

Main issue is the weights going up
DEATH DUTY current favourite
Expect him to fail generic statistics
Certainly will if the weights do rise
Have the angles to attack this race

Will cover this before next week




Champion Hurdle

4/7 Honeysuckle, 9/2 Appreciate It, 
9/1 Teahupoo, 11/1 Epatante 16/1 Zanahiyr, 

Will not oppose the favourite
Doubt novelty bets will appeal
Unstaked win bet if 4/5 or better




Mares Hurdle

7/2 Telmesomethinggirl, 6/1 Queens Brook, 13/2 Stormy Ireland
7/1 Burning Victory  121 Royal Kahala, 10/1 Echoes In Rain

Mares Hurdle
Yet to look at the race
Normally a low key race
Second guessing Ireland




Boodles Handicap

5/2 Gaelic Warrior, 11/2 The Tide Turns, 7/1 Fil Dor
8/1 Champion Green, 9/1 Brazil, 10/1 Icare Allen
12/1 Saint Segal, 12/1 Ebasari, 12/1 Hms Seahorse
12/1 Britzka, 14/1 Petit Tonnerre, 16/1 Knight Salute

Statistics have been sent
First dilemma the is favourite

GAELIC WARRIOR at 5/2
Has a vicious 283 days off
But he is from Willie Mullins

Want to discuss this tomorrow

Could be a significant race 

Have a strong view on the favourite
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