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Preview Selections

Sligo 2.10
£7.00 Win Bet Sarsfield 6/1
£7.00 Win Bet Daisy Dufresne 11/4

Perth 2.20
Castletown 5/2 
Win Bet

Stratford 2.36 
Mucuna 7/4 
Win Bet

Fairyhouse 3.05 
£5 Win Bet Cleveleys 10/1-12/1 
£5 Place Bet  Jupiter Express 10/11






Today's Message 

With the best will in the world
Even the Cheltenham's festival
Would be eclipsed by the Tennis
F.B.A offers my tennis strategy

Baking hot day on the cards
With no domestic flat racing
Not a day for a long message

Covered 4 races I quite liked
But a day to relax staking low
 
Not expecting much out of it

Undecided about next week

But clear today ambitions low








Underneath The Message

I am on my Tennis bet

Appreciate it's optimistic

But comes right from the gut

Not going to have a racing bet

If I was

Stratford 2.36 

Mucuna 7/4  

It would be this each way
Even though it's a win bet
I personally prefer e/way






Yesterday's Review  

Succeeding on this particular day
It has never been easy to master
We fell well short of that yesterday
The Trilogy races looked vicious
July Cup not one I was expecting
The Bunbury Cup winner at 25/1
Our selection finished in last place
Did better in the John Smith's cup
Brilliant Light managed a placing
Blenheim Boy also found a place
His jockey did the business for us
Reinforce managed only 3rd place
I chose to stake each way myself
I was expecting him to win though
Speedacus won easily as the saver
That was the one race I got spot on
I just could not split the 1st or 2nd
CITY WALK was the account bet
Risky and very realistic about him
I thought he was a generous price
No regrets about going with the bet
If we don't stake horses at big prices
We can not get bigger priced winners
We didn't get any run for our money
And ended up trailing home in last
Either the race came far too quickly
Or he could not cope with the ground
Beaten too far for it to be his class
Very ambitious but on this Saturday
We were just up against it anyway
Poor message not a complete shock
There were very few strong options
What few there were we failed with
  





  

PROFILES & PREVIEWS     
 
  
 
Sligo 2.10

2/1 Daisy Dufresne, 4/1 Sky Sprinter
5/1 Sarsfield 6/1 Elmount, 8/1 Ladiam, 10/1 Brown Monday
14/1 Lough Na Fooey, 25/1 Ceanndana, 25/1Crabtrees Rebel
25/1 Vintage Writer, 33/1 Fairland, 33/1 Outa Karney
66/1 Ard Monarch.

Maiden hurdle 2m 1f

Not many can win this

From those that can

Some are hard to read

SKY SPRINTER for one
Willie Mullins hurdling debut
Bumper form this year modest
But we have seen it all before
He could win or lose 20 lengths
Statistically no objection at all

ELMOUNT is a 6yo
He has decent hurdle numbers 
Mush smaller yard from a chase
Would not be my first choice

DAISY DUFRESEN a 6yo mare
High class stable can improve
But she is a mare against males

This stat may or may not work

July
Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 2f or shorter
Mares aged 6 or more
From a mares maiden hurdle
Having under 13 races
Produce a poor 1-106 record
Those from 2m 3f or more 
Have a 0-74 record in them
DAISY DUFRESEN fails this

Not a stat I can fully trust
As some won in June and August
But the July record is quite bad

SARSFIELD

Can not be sure he has the class

But one angle I liked about him

His 4 hurdle runs

2m 5f
2m 5f
2m
2m 5f

If you look at his sire
Elusive Pimpernel hurdles
Running over 2m 4f and more
With under 5 hurdle races
Have a 0-57 record so far

That is a believable record
What it basically means here
In 3 of his 4 hurdle races so far
He was an unlikely stayer
Given his inexperience at the time

This drop to 2m 1f
Could produce improvement

SARSFIELD each way at 6/1
Could be the smart bet in this

The alternative option
Win Bet and a saver as well
That may be the sensible move
But the staking looks quite hard

Following the narrative horse
Saving on the money horse

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SARSFIELD 6/1

£7.00 Win Bet DAISY DUFRESEN 11/4







Perth 2.20

13/8 Fiston Du Mou, 2/1 Hermann Clermont
3/1 Castletown, 12/1 Big Difference
12/1  Hold The Note.

Novice Handicap Chase 3m

During July
40 similar races

All 40 winners
Ran over 2m 2f or more last time
Those that did not had a 0-20 record
HERMANN CLERMONT fails this
He is stepping up a mile in distance
Given he is only 5 years old
Happy to oppose him up 8f
Main worry is the small field
Which will increase his chances
But it is a very problematic profile
HOLD THE NOTE is topweight
Ran just once in 142 days now
That was a 70 length thrashing 
Too many wellbeing doubts to like
BIG DIFFERENCE is a 9yo
He has recently downgraded yards
Had his comeback race 10 days ago
Following 88 days off after a downgrade
Beaten 25 lengths just 10 days ago
Was not enough to interest me here

Shortlist

FISTON DU MOU 7/4
CASTLETOWN 5/2

Could bet them both if we wanted

FISTON DU MOU as a saver bet
CASTLETOWN would become 11/10
With money back on the favourite

CASTLETOWN the better horse
But he has to give weight away
To a horse much lighter raced

Close decision

Betting them both feels right

But going with the class horse

Selection

CASTLETOWN 5/2

Win Bet







Stratford 2.36

2/1 Mucuna, 3/1 Captain Square, 3/1 Shipton Moyne
8/1 Rolypolymoly, 14/1 Dicktate, Mutara, 16/1 Fast Style
40/1 My Rosa's Gold.

3yo Hurdle

No negatives of note

MUCUNA appealed most of all
She is a filly winning 9 days ago

SHIPTON MOYNE won last time
That was her first hurdle start
She was 20/1 and she beat Mucuna
But it looked a falsely run race
Suited her more than the others
Slow pace helped his stamina 
Before it looked a poor sprint bred
MUCANA can reverse that form
She has come out and won since

CAPTAIN SQUARE won last time
Lucky to win but he could still win

MUTARA has his hurdling debut
ROLYPOLYMOLY does the same
Not negatives but neither first choice

MUCANA is preferred

Slight personal bias to her experience

And in July 3yo hurdle races

Fillies like her
Winning last time out
Running within 10 days
Return a W W W record
MUCANA shares this profile

Selection

MUCANA 7/4

Win Bet





Fairyhouse 3.05

9/2 Tai Sing Yeh, 6/1 Jupiter Express, 7/1 Caesar's Comet
7/1 Cnodian, 8/1 Theriverrunsdeep, 10/1 Breakfast Club
10/1 Secret Road, 12/1 Arcanears, 12/1 Pretty Smart
16/1 Cleveleys, 20/1 Bellick, Markievicz, 25/1 Dragons Call
25/1 Eglish, 25/1 Fit For Function, 33/1 Carla's Kodi Bear
40/1 Betrayed, 50/1 Brave Troop.

6f Handicap

Best not dwell to much here

High numbers are weaker
But many of these horses
Do have recent runs today

Opposing these on the draw

BETRAYED
EGLISH
BRAVE TROOP
MARKIEVICZ

BREAKFAST CLUB stall 18
One of the lowest rated horses
May just be best avoided as well

FIT FOR FUNCTION a 9yo
Looks vulnerable to youngsters

TAI SING YEH is an 8yo
He has an unusual profile
Dropping down from 8f to 6f
With just a 9 day absence

Go back to 2997
6f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Fields of 12 or more
Horses aged 8 or more
Dropping down from 8f +
Running within 13 days
Have a 0-46 record in them

The only ones that won
Were on soft ground
When running in small fields
TAI SIGN YEH does neither
 
Rejecting the following horses
Because they look underraced
DRAGONS CALL
CAESAR'S COMET
He is an 8 year old rated just 47
Raced just once in 54 days now

CNODIAN is a 4yo filly
Drawn 1 would not be 1st choice
BELLICK has weak numbers
PRETTY SMART an older mare
Looks exposed and limited
ARCANEARS has some backclass
But has a better record on sand
And he is an exposed 7yo now

THERIVERSRUNDEEP a mare
Exposed and has plenty of weight
Several of these beat her last time

JUPITER EXPRESS is respected
He is one of just two 3 year olds

Similar races here
Run during July
3 year olds
Have a modest 1-37 record
Do we want a 3yo favourite
In a big field against older horses

Not really
But he has a good recent run
He has 2 career bests in a row
And i quite like him as a place bet

SECRET ROAD is respected
Could be a second saver Bet

CLEVELEYS

Running well
Knocking on the door
Not drawn well recently

Drawn 16 of 16 at Limerick
Drawn 1 of 10 at Leopardstown
Drawn 18 of 18 at Roscommon

Had the outside draw
In all 3 of his latest runs
Yet still performed well
Last time he had topweight
Reared up in the stalls too

Selection

£5 Win Bet CLEVELEYS 10/1-12/1
 
£5 Place Bet JUPITER EXPRESS 10/11











FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 

 
Wimbledon Final

2/7 N. Djokovic v N. Kyrgios 7/2

Mouth watering prospect 
Anyone who is interested 
Is aware of all the nuances 
Arguments are pointless

Kyrgios in his 1st slam final
That could be a disadvantage
But the people arguing that
Were wrong only yesterday
With the Ladies Singles final

Both of these are top class

Djokovic is like a Rolls Royce
Starting to find his range now
Purring like a Silver Shadow
But beneath the bonnet lately
There have been some worries
Slow starts and often lifeless
A Master of peaking in a final
He deserves to be quite short
But I haven't been convinced

Kyrgios on his day is sublime
He will be the hardest of tests

The Racing Post selection

1pt Djokovic 3-2 (6/1)
1pt Djokovic 3-1 (11/4)

Seems a fair enough view
I think anything is possible
Including a straight set win
For either of the two players

Djokovic 3-0 is 6/4

That feels a very poor price
I'll be disappointed if this wins

Kyrgios 3-0 is 10/1

That feels a generous price
And makes my staking below

I take the view
Djokovic will take his time
Try and slow the game down
Kyrgios will try to speed it up

My strategy

Saver bet on the first set

Play up any winnings 

On the direction of travel

I am a Kyrgios man

8 years younger

He has always hated Djokovic

He could just blow Novak away

Final Staking
 
Set Betting
  
£5 Win Bet Kyrgios to win 3-0 (12/1) 

£1 Win Bet Kyrgios to win 3-1 (10/1)

£4 Win Bet Kyrgios to win 1st set 6/4
  

Kyrgious

If he wins the first set

We can not lose any money

If he takes that 1-0 lead

He will take some stopping

My Prediction

Kyrgios wins comfortably

Winning 3-0 not unrealistic

Just my opinion

Tectonic Plates may shift

Looks a very special player
Few can even cope with him


Staking
  
Set Betting
  
£5 Win Bet Kyrgios to win 3-0 (12/1) 

£1 Win Bet Kyrgios to win 3-1 (10/1)

£4 Win Bet Kyrgios to win 1st set 6/4
 
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