6 Previews
0 Account Bet
 
No Account bet

  
  

Today's Message 
  

Cheltenham dominated message   
It is a time consuming meeting
Had to ditch the All weather stuff
Not enough time to do this justice



Happy with the message 
Obviously a lot of puzzles
Staking needs to be right
Can't afford any bad luck
But a decent opening day




Today's Best Bet  


Cheltenham 1.10

ASTIGAR 5/1-11/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


Would not take under 5/1

Never really in any doubt

Which was my best bet today

You always get late problems 
Only an hour ago he was 8/1 
Drifting in market friendless 
Since backed in to about 11/2 
Not ideal and quite annoying 
But far from unusual early am
Makes staking bets difficult

Can't be sure how he runs

How he copes with a lay off

But clear best bet of the day







Preview Selections
 
Cheltenham 1.10
Astigar 5/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5 

Cheltenham 1.45
£4.00 Each Way Captain Tom Cat 10/1  
£1.00 Win Bet Gold Des Bois 14/1-16/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Monsieur Lecoq 16/1-18/1
 
Cheltenham 2.20
Hereditary Rule 7/2 
Each Way
 
Cheltenham 2.55
£5.00 Win Bet Magic Dancer 7/2 
£5.00 Place Bet Kauto Riko 10/11-1/1

Cheltenham 3.30
£7.00 Win Bet Hermes Allen 4/1-7/2
£2.00 Win Bet Music Drive5/1-11/2
£1.00 Win Bet Quid Pro Quo 14/1-12/1
 
Cheltenham 4.00
£5.00 Win Bet Rathmacknee 12/1
£5.00 Place Bet - Hey Johnny 11/10 (1-2-3-4)








Underneath The Message
 
 
Cheltenham 1.10

Astigar 5/1 

£30 Win Bet

Going win only myself
Not sure about each way
With so long off the track
But if he does run his race 
He won't be out of the four
Open minded about staking

I like the opening race

I like the final race as well

Middle part of the message
More tactical and strategic
With less definitive selections

 
Cheltenham 4.00

£10 Win Bet Rathmacknee 12/1

£10 Place Bet - Hey Johnny 11/10 (1-2-3-4)

Having a tenner on both bets

The Place bet in this race
Was just a 50-50 toss us 
Hey Johnny got the verdict
Master Dancer just lost out
That could backfire on us


Rathmacknee is risky

Market doesn't like him

But may have a class edge 







Yesterday's Summary 
   
Limited choice smaller fields
So just settled on 3 previews
Had a winner and two losers
Lucky Lover Boy won nicely
True Romance was second
Frustrating should have won
Finished fast beaten a head
The Rutland Rebel got beat
No significant damage done
Just a little down on the day
Came down to a photo loss






PROFILES & PREVIEWS   

 
 
Cheltenham 1.10

5/1 Enki Flacke, 6/1 Astigar, 7/1 Fine Casting
7/1 Sweet Will, 9/1 Hector Javilex, 10/1 Alvaro
10/1 Nietzsche, 11/1 Oscar Thyne, 12/1 Ashington
14/1 Ballyadam Destiny, Dont Doubt Me, 16/1 Hardy Boy
16/1 Hurricane Harvey, 20/1 Ellaat, 20/1Tide Times
28/1 Harry d'Alene, 33/1 Land Of My Delight
40/1 Brazos, Cheng Gong.

2m 5f Handicap Hurdle

Conditional Jockeys

The previous 12 winners
Were all aged 5-6-7

Go back to 1999
Horses aged 8 or older
Have a 0-112 record in this
The following horses fail this

BALLYADAM DESTINY
NIETZSCHE
TIDE TIMES
HURRICANE HARVEY
BRAZOS

BALLYADAM DESTINY is an 8yo
Fit comes here winning last time
But he was 20/1 and is exposed 

CHEN GONG pulled up 3 days ago
ASHINGTON is an exposed 7yo
Asking a lot to win with topweight

LAND OF MY DELIGHT is a 6yo
Lightly raced well beaten recently
Not convinced he's the right type
ELLAAT has been on the flat 
Unsafe on profile and sire stats
HARRY D'ALENE has just 4 runs
Well beaten only 13 days ago
Not safe given so inexperienced 
Coming back fast from a bad run

OSCAR THYNE is a 7 year old
Last seen in chases 516 days ago
When running for Top Irish stable
They let him go not a good sign

HARDY BOY has 1 run this year
Did not do nearly enough in that
Go back to the 2008 renewal
Every past winner since then
Were officially rated at least 111
Those rated lower were 0-36
HARDY BOY is only rated 108
DON'T DOUBT BE rated 103

SWEET WILL won 3 days ago
That does make him interesting
But that was only a 0-95 class race
Todays race is a 0-124 class race
That's why he is not shortlisted

ALVARO is running very well
We backed him e/w at Listowel 
It was in a better race than this
No shame last time when 2nd
In a Novice with a gap to third
Bit exposed not the normal type
But would see him as a positive

FINE CASTING is off 272 days
First time out and not exposed
Many past winners were similar
Main problem he has 11st 9lbs
Most winners with 11st 9lbs +
Were lighter raced than he is
But no surprise if he does win 

HECTOR JAVILEX is a 5 year old
1 run this year in a graded novice 
Just 4 career starts with weight 
Can not match him to a winner
Go back to the 1999 renewal
Horses with under 6 career runs
Having just 1 run in months
Have a 0-23 record in this race
HECTOR JAVILEX fails this stat

Last years winner
Had 2 recent prep runs
Came here winning last time
That had not been the norm

The previous 12 winners
Were all aged 5-6-7
First time out that season
Vast majority lightly raced
   
ART APROVAL comes out badly
Not keen on just 1 run this year
Horses with 1 run this season
Have a 2-119 record in this race
Those running within a month
Have a 0-95 record in this race
ART APPROVAL fails this angle
   
ENKI FLACKE

Gordon Elliot

Could easily win this

But he has 124 days off
He has plenty of weight too
Sire stats are questionable

Gordon Elliott runners here
During the November festival
Are not particularly impressive
Since 2009 his runners 1-32
That winner was a 3yo race

ASTIGAR

David Pipe

4 runs
3 hurdle runs
606 days off

Not really a David Pipe fan 

But we can be confident
This has been his target
He will be well handicapped

If nothing goes wrong with him
If he does not fail for fitness
I would expect him to go well

The 606 day break
Would not worry me in this race

Looked at this meeting
How many horses won here
In handicap hurdles like him
With over 600 days absence

Greatwood Hurdle 2021
West Cork won off 631 days

Two other horses won

Guess the trainer

David Pipe

Katkeau won 2014 absent 630 days

The same year in this race

Unique De Cotte won absent 640 days
  
He also had 4 runs
With 3 hurdle runs
Symmetry there

Pipe loves this race
Do not see a better option here

 
Selection

ASTIGAR 6/1-13/2-7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Cheltenham 1.45

11/4 The Glancing Queen, 7/2 Amarillo Sky
9/2 Grey Diamond 7/1 Malystic, 9/1 Hasankey
10/1 Monsieur Lecoq, 14/1 Captain Tom Cat,
14/1 Fugitif, 14/1 Gold Des Bois.
 
Handicap Chase 2m

Long history to this race

THE GLANCING QUEEN is a mare 
She has 12st topweight first time out

Go back to 1997 
Horses with 11st 1lbs or more
Have a modest 1-28 record
That was a small field in 2003
Starts the year on a career high
She has plenty to prove here

Horses aged 6
Have a modest 3-42 record
None of them had over 19 runs
HASANKEY has had 28 runs
Looks too exposed as a 6yo

AMARILLO SKY is a 6 year old
First time out 6yo's are 1-15
That winner carried 10st 8lbs
AMARILLO SKY has 15lbs more

He fails this statistic

Go back to 2007
Cheltenham 
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 6
Over 8 career starts
Absent over 6 weeks
Carrying 11st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-34 record in them
AMARILLO SKY fails this

The last 6yo to beat that stat
My Will winning back in 2006

Go back in this race to 2000

Horses with 1 run that season
Running over 2m 1f or shorter 
Absent more than 2 weeks
I find a 0-24 record in them
MALYSTIC has this profile
  
GREY DIAMOND is fine
Similar profile to 2011 winner
This is his Cheltenham debut

FUGITIF a 7yo first time out
Not unlike the 2018 winner
So I can happily shortlist him
He has been well backed too 
But another without track form


Nasty race

Requires a guess
 
GOLD DES BOIS is 8 years old
Will need a career best to win
On a track he has never ran on
But maybe he will like like it

MONSIEUR LECOQ is an 8yo
Has a chance but fell last time 
Last years winner of this race
Fell in the same race as he did
Ground could just be too quick
But they will have watered

CAPTAIN TOM CAT a positive
Horses running within 4 weeks
Beaten over 15 lengths in that
Have a 1-40 record in this race
CAPTAIN TOM CAT fails this 
Not ideal but the winner doing it
Came from the same race as him 
Been dropped 5lbs in weights
Feel trip and ground are right
  
Selection

£4.00 Each Way CAPTAIN TOM CAT 10/1 
 
£1.00 Win Bet GOLD DES BOIS 14/1-16/1

£1.00 Win Bet MONSIEUR LECOQ 16/1-18/1







Cheltenham 2.20

11/4 Hereditary Rule, 7/2 Pull Again Green
9/2 Unanswered Prayers, 5/1 Railway Hurricane
8/1 Super Six, 9/1 Honneur D'Ajonc
11/1 Stimulating Song, 25/1 Milanford.



Novice Handicap Chase 2m 4f

Past statistics no good here 
Used to be a Novice Chase 
Changed this year to a handicap 
So none of my statistics are valid
  
MILANFORD the oldest horse
Has the longest absence too
 
SIMULATING SONG also out
Beaten too far too recently
And stepping up in trip by 4f

HONNEUR D'AJONIC is unsafe
Maybe ran too badly last time
Needs significant improvement
  
SUPER SIX is a 5 year old
Just 1 run this year over 2 miles
Beaten 16 lengths on chase debut
Felt there were holes in his profile

UNANSWERED PRAYERS a 6yo
Tries to win on his chase debut
Tries to win on his course debut
 
Go back to 2007
Cheltenham 
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Chase debutants
Have a poor 1-41 record
Would prefer a safer profile

Shortlist

RAILWAY HURRICANE
HEREDITARY RULE
PULL AWAY GREEN

PULL AWAY GREEN is a 6yo
Only has 1 chase start before
Tough weight to carry as well
 
HEREDITARY RULE is older
Has more chasing experience

Selection

HEREDITARY RULE 9/2-5/1

Each Way






Cheltenham 2.55

11/4 Ballyandy, 5/1 Kauto Riko, 5/1 Magic Dancer
6/1 Native Robin, 7/1 Broken Quest, Elegant Escape
12/1 My Manekineko, 14/1 Another Emotion, 16/1 Saint Xavier.

Veterans Chase

Replaces the cross country race

Apart from a pointless race in 2006
Cheltenham has no Veterans chases
So no history of past renewals to help
 
ELEGANT ESCAPE is topweight
This could be a bit too short for him
Opposing the bottomweight as well
ANOTHER EMOTION lacks class

Opposing the oldest horse as well
MY MANEKINOKO rejected aged 13
SAINT XAVIER does not tempt much

With Veterans Chases
Younger and less exposed the better 
NATIVE RIVER 12yo with an absence
Might win I would rather go younger

BROKEN QUEST could win
Just prefer one or two more

BALLYANDY is a positive
He's had only 6 chases races
And 3 of those came at this track
He pulled in his last 2 races here

MAGIC DANCER is a positive
Has good history at this meeting
Drying ground sure to help him

KAUTO RIKO is shortlisted too
Does not stay much beyond 3m
Has some good excuses for runs

Split Staking this one

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet MAGIC DANCER 7/2

£5.00 Place Bet KAUTO RIKO 10/11-1/1







Cheltenham 3.30

2/1 Hubrisko, 7/2 Hermes Allen
9/2 Collectors Item 9/2 Weveallbeencaught
11/2 Music Drive, 14/1 Quid Pro Quo
40/1 Getaway Drumlee.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

Graded race 2m 5f

14 Past renewals

Since the race upgraded

Not much to go on here

All 14 winners of this race

Ran between 16-38 days ago
 
Opposing the horse that doesn't
WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT is out
He has no hurdling form either

Every past winner of this novice
Was either 1st 2nd of fell last time
None won placing 3rd or worse
HUBRISKO fails this small angle
MUSIC DRIVE fails the same stat
Finishing only 3rd last time out
I would happily ignore that angle 
Mistake at last cost him 1st/2nd

HUBRISKO is a 5 year old
Horses aged 5
Coming from a 2m hurdle
Have only won up in trip
With under 4 career starts
HUBRISKO has now had 5 runs
 
COLLECTORS ITEM from Jonjo
Can not be ruled out on profile
But is well behind on the figures
And would not be my 1st choice

HERMES ALLEN is a 5yo

Horses aged 5
Winning a maiden hurdle
On their only career start
Have a W W 3 record in this

Only 7 runners
Having a cheap saver bet



Selection

£7.00 Win Bet HERMES ALLEN 4/1-7/2

£2.00 Win Bet MUSIC DRIVE 5/1-11/2

£1.00 Win Bet QUID PRO QUO 14/1-12/1









Cheltenham 4.00

4/1 Hey Johnny, 7/1 Mothill, 8/1 Alto Alto
8/1 Pepe Le Moko, 10/1 Evenwood Sonofagun
10/1 Master Dancer, Rathmacknee, 12/1 Diamondinthemud
12/1 Platinumcard, 14/1 Explosive Boy, Galahad Threepwood
16/1 Contrapposto, Great Realisation, 25/1 Phoenix Aquilus
33/1 Alioski, Desert Friend, Sceptred Isle, 50/1 Toronto
 66/1 Astrophysicist, 66/1 Harlem Soul.
 
Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m

Big field
 
Traditional vicious

Last 3 winners 33/1 33/1 33/1

The last 23 winners   
Were aged 4-5-6-7  

EXPLOSIVE BOY is an 8yo
CONTRAPPOSTO is an 8yo

Horses with over 4 runs
Having just 1 run in 12 weeks
Have a 0-76 record in this
The following horses fail this

EXPLOSIVE BOY
SCEPTRED ISLE
GALAHAD THREEPWOOD
ALTO ALTO
MOTHILL

 
Horses aged 4 
From any handicap hurdles
Had a 0-35 record in this race 
MOTHILL has this profile

EVENWOOD SPNOFAGUN
Brought down in a maiden hurdle
When only 12/1 looks beatable
DIAMONDINTHEMUD a mare
Does not offer enough positives

PEPE LE MOKO is a 4 year old
Beaten last time and just 2 runs
Looks raw and not safe enough

PLATINUMCARD is a 7yo
Not keen on 50 days absence

Go back to the 2004 renewal

Horses with over 15 runs
Absent more than 28 days
Have a 0-27 record in this
PLATINUMCARD fails this
He has 23 runs off 50 days
And has downgraded yards

GREAT REALISATION fails
Only just but he does fail it
Not a sire I would want here

HEY JOHNNY won last time
This is a much tougher race
But he won with a lot in hand

Can he be out of the frame ?
Well his profile is not great

Past renewals show

Horses from handicap hurdles
Running within 37 days
Under 10 hurdle starts
Have a horrible 0-95 record

Those who won that handicap
Have a unpleasant 0-27 record
HEY JOHNNY shares this profile

Others failing this 0-95 statistic

ALTO ALTO
MOTHILL


MASTER DANCER the favourite
Not keen on just 1 run this season
But he should be a player here 

RATHMACKNEE has 12st weight
First time out will need to be smart

What interests me most

RATHMACKNEE is rated 124

Look at the other topweights
 
Desert Friend 33/1 
Evenwood Sonofagun 33/1

If we can get that pair beaten
 
RATHMACKNEE faces a 0-118

That does not sound a big ask

He may be worth the risk here 

Going with a win and place

Selection 

£5.00 Win Bet RATHMACKNEE 12/1

£5.00 Place Bet - HEY JOHNNY 11/10 (1-2-3-4)

*******************************************************
*******************************************************