1 Preview
0 Account Bet 
0 Best Bet   



No Staked Bet  

  


Today's Racing
  

Now 14 Messages in a row
Not too fit for purpose today

So intended to break today
But changed my mind late
Instead do a 1 race message

Didn't start working until 7am
So not expecting too much
Speculative fun interest bet


Chepstow 3.45

£3.50  Each Way THEBELLSOFSHANNON 14/1
 
£2.00 Win Bet TRUE THOUGHTS 9/2

£1.00 Win BILBOA RIVER 12/1-14/1



Not expecting too much

But the alternative was a day off





Preview Selections 

 
Chepstow 3.45

£3.50  Each Way Thebellsofshandon 14/1
 
£2.00 Win Bet True Thoughts 9/2

£1.00 Win Bilboa River 12/1-14/1




Yesterday's Review

Liked the overall message
The main bet failed though
We got the favourite beaten
The 0-159 generic stat held
Suspect it was a false pace
Unfancied winner won 80/1
The 1st 2nd and 3rd places
All went to hold up horses 
All came home fast and late
The pace horses collapsed 
Just smelt falsely run to me
Observation not an excuse
Still see it as a good effort
Goven annoyingly beaten
Having been matched 1.03
Daaft was a beautiful winner
Backed down from 10/1 -7/1
Immediately protecting us
From any looming disaster
Had several place returns 
Down about the staked bet
But a difficult day to stake
Could have make it easier
Gone for a burglary option
Like Goven each way 5/2
But those bets are obvious

  



PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Chepstow 3.45

9/4 Breizh Alko, 3/1 Advantura, 11/2 The Wire Flyer
8/1 True Thoughts, 10/1 Rock Of Star, 12/1 Gyllen
12/1 Thebellsofshandon, 16/1 Bilboa River
20/1 Bullion, Jesse's Lady, 33/1 Janeslittlevoice

Handicap hurdle 2m 3f

Horses rated 100-76

One or two of these

Have quite a lot to prove 
 
BREIZH ALKO is 11 years old
He comes from a chase race
One or two angles against him

January
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
More than 7 runners
Class 6 and higher

Horses aged 11 or more
Running this season
Coming from a chase
Have a 0-63 record in them
BREIZH ALKO shares this

Don't like 11 year olds
When prepping over fences
He has other challenges too

Not only having topweight
On soft ground on a stiff track
But he has 1 run in 22 months
His previous run March 2019

January
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 11 or more
Just 1 run in 6 + months
Return a poor 5-136 record

Those with 11st 7lbs + are 0-29
BREIZH ALKO carries 11st 12lbs

Those with under 14 career runs
Have a 0-16 record in all of them
BREIZH ALKO only has 7 races

Go back to 2006
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year

Horses aged 11 or more
Under 10 career starts
Just 1 run in 6 + months
Have a modest 1-44 record
Only 1 horse has done this
In any handicap since 2007
That horse had 10st 8lbs
Those with more were 0-25
BREIZH ALKO fails these stats

Some are hard to like

JANESLITTLEVOICE a mare
Hammered in all recent runs
BULLION pulled up 3 days ago
Finished lame but hard to trust
JESSE'S LADY unfit out of form

ADVANTURA is a 5 year old
He only has 3 lifetime starts 
Do we want that here on soft ?
When he steps up from 2 miles
One or two have won like him
But last time beaten 36 lengths
That run was only 16 days ago 
He was only a cheap purchase
Ovreall package isn't enough

ROCK OF STAR a similar profile
Another 5 year old with 3 runs
Not the most compelling profile
When you factor in a big weight
And starting 80/1 in that Novice

GYLLEN is a 7 year old
He faces 238 days absence
The only horse with a big break
His sires hurdlers are only 1-42
That winner had an 8 day break
Might win but no market support
I would consider him too risky

Possibles

BILBOA RIVER refused last time
But that was inn his first chase
He never seemed to like fences
Has not shown much in 7 races
But he is lightly raced to be fair
And his 5th in a claimer was fine
Gave weight to the entire field
Maybe shouldn't be shortlisted
His stable is another concern
Have no winners in 133 days
Their National Hunt record show
Their last winner 997 days ago
 Despite that give him a squeak

THE WIRE FLYER is a 7yo
Exposed but he is well treated
Ground and trip look suitable
Entitled to need his last 2 races
But he has plenty of weight here
And looks a little undersized to me

TRUE THOUGHTS is a 7yo
Modest but most of these are
But rated 76 he is well treated
He is fit with some recent races 
No Banker but has positives
In a race against unsafe rivals
Felt he looked the fair saver  

THEBELLSOFSHANNON a 7yo
Has just downgraded stables
He has had 7 career starts now
Career best R.Post Rating of 86
Yet a Handicap mark here of 96
Does not look well handicapped
Comes here after Pulling Up too
Having said all those negatives
He went off too fast last time
That was 3m at Limerick on soft
Understandable he dropped back
His previous race was decent
Better quality race than this one
When entitled to have needed it
His trainer has now had the time
To get the horse in the right race


Selection

£3.50  Each Way THEBELLSOFSHANNON 14/1
 
£2.00 Win Bet TRUE THOUGHTS 9/2

£1.00 Win BILBOA RIVER 12/1-14/1






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES        


Australian Open 


7/4 Daniil Medvedev 11/4 Alexander Zverev
6/1 Rafael Nadal 25/1 StefTsitsipas 25/1 Jannik Sinner
33/1 C. Alcaraz 33/1 Aslan Karatsev 33/1 Matteo Berrettini
50/1 Andrey Rublev 66/1 Felix Auger-Aliassime
66/1 Gael Monfils 66/1 Hubert Hurkacz 10/1 C. Ruud
100/1 Denis Shapovalov 100/1  Roberto Bautista Agut


Djokovic situation resolved

What I find quite surprising

How weak the markets are

Lack of imagination as well

No "Name the Finalist" market

Betfair are showing

Just 3 players under 25/1

Projected QF Draw

Based on Seedings

Top Half

M Berrettini v  C Garín
A. Zverev v Rafa Nadal

Bottom Half

C Ruud v S Tsitsipas
D Medvedev v A Rublev

The interesting quarter

A Zverev v Rafa Nadal

I'd be with Zverev here
Improving and younger
Playing on hard courts
Won his last 2 v Nadal

I fancy him to beat Nadal

If he does 
He should make the final

Expecting this final

D Medvedev v A. Zverev

I've had my bet now

Can't see me plating much

ALEXANDER ZVEREV

Considered him strongly

As an each way bet 5/2-11/4

We get half the odds 1-2

Can not lose any stakes

Should he make the final

But instead

Gone for a split stake bet

Betfair prices

My exact stakes

Alexander Zverev £64.00 at 4.7

Daniil Medvedev £36.00 at 2.83

Staked £100

Medvedez winning I am level

Zverev winning I make £200

Any other result I lose £100

What this means

I'm getting 2/1 Alexander Zverev

With money back on the favourite

Probably my one and only bet 


Next Message

Will cover a Cheltenham race
 
********************************************************* 
*********************************************************