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Today's Best Bet

Dundalk 5.00

EGLISH 11/4-5/2

Win Bet








Today's Message 
 
Had a couple low key days
Our weekend starts today

Cheltenham opening day
Most of the previews there

Quite an enjoyable meeting
But rain sure to complicate it
Quite impossible to predict 
How well or not we do there

My best bet runs tonight
On the sand and at Dundalk


Today's Best Bet

Dundalk 5.00

EGLISH 11/4-5/2

Win Bet
 
My favourite bet on the day 
Would be Eglish each way  
Not everybody will like that

Have you noticed sometimes

I put "Today's Best Bet"

Right at the top of the message
Just under the "No account bet"

On the occasions I do that
It is because I like it a bit more
Just an insiders message tip
If I wasn't confident in the bet
It would be skulking lower down







Preview Selections


Doncaster 1.10
£6.00 Win Bet Starnberg 11/4  
£4.00 Win Bet Swift Lioness 6/4

Newbury 1.25 
Rajasthan 1/1 
Win Bet

Cheltenham 1.35
£4.50 Each Way Elham Valley 13/2-7/1
£1.00 Win Bet Soul Icon 7/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Cheltenham 2.45
£3.00 Each Way Saint Riquier 14/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Music Drive 9/4 
£1.00 Win Bet Flaming Moon 9/1

Cheltenham 3.55
Listentillitellyea 9/1-10/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Cheltenham 4.30
Jony Max 10/1-11/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5

Dundalk 5.00
Eglish 11/4
Win Bet
 
Cheltenham 5.05
Twinjets 2/1-9/4 
Win Bet






Underneath The Message
 
Cheltenham by it's nature
Mainly informed guesses
Most races following stats
And individual race history

Many will bet in every race
Will probably have a few bets
But just boredom bets there

No Cheltenham preview
Stands out from any other one

Cheltenham 3.55
Listentillitellyea 9/1-10/1
Each Way 

If I was betting in this race
I would probably changes stakes

£5 Win Listentillitellyea 9/1-10/1
£5 Place Spanish Present 4/5

Just a hunch and no more
Bet stands each way single
 
Apart from a few boredom bets

This will be my only proper bet

Dundalk 5.00

Eglish 5/2-11/4

£40 Win Bet

Making her my best bet to win

Feel it's a better each way bet
But I've decided to stay win only
If I staked her as an account bet
I would want 3/1 each way 
Or a win bet and a saver bet 
On stablemate Sister Lola 7/1 
But keeping the bet simple

He is the headline horse today

But otherwise its Cheltenham







Yesterday's Summary
 
Shorter 3 preview message
Managed to avoid any losers
Finery was an excellent start
Drifted out to 8/1 and won well
Part returns in the Thurles race
In what was a collapsed market
Lipsink ran well placed each way
Odds on in running looked good
May have just gone too quickly
Overall a pretty good message

The last two messages planned
As non committal low key days
Have delivered a decent profit
Made me think not for first time
Take away the need for any bet
No account bets or the best bet
Removal of any pressure in them
Not caring much about each one
Can have quite a liberating effect
Wonder about the improvement
We'd show removing the burdens
My guess it would be significant
Taking that leap may only happen
When the service reaches the end
Some kind of liberated alternative
Comes out of the calcified ashes







PROFILES & PREVIEWS 
  


Doncaster 1.10

11/8 Gulmarg 6/4 Swift Lioness
3/1 Starnberg

8f Nursery

Not the smartest strategy
To be arguing "Non stayer"
In any small 3 runner race

But do have some doubts 
GULMARG may not get home
On soft ground over 8f here

Split Staking this race

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet STANBERG 11/4

£4.00 Win Bet SWIFT LIONESS 6/4








Newbury 1.25

15/8 Rajasthan, 7/2 Mudskipper, 7/2 Promoter
10/1 Paisano, 14/1 Scintillante, 16/1 Ascari
16/1 Gordon Grey, Graham, 20/1 Ibrahimovic
20/1 Yellow Star, 25/1 Cicero's Gift, 33/1 Craggy Range
50/1 Star, 100/1 Demand Adaay, Ectocross.

2yo Novice 8f

Complicated race
 
RAJASTHAN is drawn 14
Worried me but my draw stats
Show that is not a major issue

PROMOTER has 2 runs
He fails this breeding angle

Horses aged 2
Sired by Showcasing
Running over 8f and more
Under 4 career starts
Ground softer than good
Have a 0-23 record so far
Not a negative despite this

MUDSKIPPER is a positive
Possible each way bet at 7/2

PROMOTER is a non runner
Thats messed the preview up
Made the favourites draw better

Selection

RAJASTHAN 1/1

Win Bet







Cheltenham 1.35

5/1 Calico, 7/1 Elham Valley, 7/1 No Trouble
15/2 Lively Citizen, Soul Icon, Tullypole Annie
10/1 Castel Gandolfo, Clay Rogers, 12/1 One Cool Poet
14/1 Duffle Coat, 16/1 Nayati, Swaffham Bulbeck
20/1 Pisgah Pike, 20/1 Wojood, 25/1 Thibault
33/1 Glimpse Of Gold.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

Conditional Jockeys
 
Past 18 renewals

14 winners had recent runs

4 were seasonal debutants

Horses racing first time out
Have a 4-76 record in this
They were all lightly raced

Horses with over 9 races
Absent more than 56 days
Have a 0-60 record in this 
LIVELY CITIZEN fails this
CALICO also fails this stat
 
TULLYPOLE ANNIE a 4yo filly
Fails the following angle

Go back to 2007
Cheltenham 
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Fillies aged 4 are 0-10
None won any all sexed race 
TULLYPOLE ANNIE is out
 
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a modest 3-68 record 
Those with over 27 runs
Have a 0-34 record in this
The following horses fail  this

ONE COOL POET
GLIMPSE OF GOLD
SWAFFHAM BULBECK
THIBAULT

GLIMPSE OF GOLD is an 11yo
Never won off his current mark
Never raced at Cheltenham before

DUFFLE COAT has topweight
Not well treated enough to consider
WOJOOD looks out of his depth

CASTEL GANDOLFO is a 5yo
Dark Angel out of a Camacho mare
Does not sound mouthwatering
In a big field Cheltenham handicap

Horses running this season
Coming from a 2 mile race
Beaten 5 + lengths in that
Have a 0-58 record in this
The following all fail this
WUJOOD
GLIMPSE OF GOLD
CASTEL GANDOLFO

CLAY ROGERS is a 7yo
He has 415 days absence
Thats fine as he is lightly raced
But not ideal he is a 7 year old

Go back to 2008
Cheltenham 
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or more
Over 5 lifetime starts
Coming from a novice hurdle
Absent more than 4 weeks
Have a 0-99 record in them
CLAY ROGERS fails this stat

PISGAH PIKE is resistible
Will need a career best to win
Ridden by a 10lbs claimer too
Who has ridden in just 4 races
NAYATI is now 8 years old
Only 1 past winner was as old
Horses aged 8 or more
With under 3 runs that year
Have a 0-36 record in the race
NAYATI fails this 0-36 statistic 
NO TROUBLE is quite resistible
Took him 8 runs to win a novice
His hurdle figures are quite low
See him as badly handicapped

Shortlist

SOUL ICON

ELHAM VALLEY
 
Selection

£4.50 Each Way ELHAM VALLEY 13/2-7/1

£1.00 Win Bet SOUL ICON 7/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5








Cheltenham 2.45

3/1 Music Drive, 3/1 She Is Electric, 6/1 Mofasa
8/1 Flaming Moon, Saint Riquier, 10/1 Notnowlinda
10/1 Wild Shot, 14/1 Desert Friend, 20/1 Apple Away
20/1 The Wounded Knee, 50/1 Lord Snootie
66/1 Must Be Dreaming.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 2m 4f

Past renewals since 2005
Show just 1 past winner
Won coming from a 2m race
That horse had 3 months off

Go back to 1997
Horses aged 5 or more
Running within 3 months
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a 0-22 record in this race

The following all fail this
And are not like past winners

WILD SHOT
DESERT FRIEND
FLAMING MOON
SHE IS ELECTRIC
NOTNOWLINDA

Go back to 2007
Novice Hurdles 
Open to both sexes
Between 2m 3f and 2m 5f
Any time of the season
Female horses
Aged 7 or more
Coming from a 2m hurdle
Have a 0-77 record in them
SHE IS ELECTRIC fails this angle
  
MUST BE DREAMING is wrong
THE WOUNDED KNEE unsafe
With just 3 runs from a handicap

APPLE AWAY too inexperienced
LORD SNOOTIE just the same

MOFASA has raced just twice
No horses aged 6 or older
Have won with under 5 races
MOFASA fails this with two runs

FLAMING MOON gets promoted
On grounds of lots of experience
And decent hurdling figures

Shortlist

FLAMING MOON
SAINT RIQUIER
MUSIC DREAM
 
Selection

£3.00 Each Way SAINT RIQUIER 12/1

£3.00 Win Bet MUSIC DREAM 9/4

£1.00 Win Bet FLAMING MOON 9/1








Cheltenham 3.55

3/1 Spanish Present, 9/2 Onagatheringstorm
11/2 Coole Cody, 8/1 Francky Du Berlais, Listentillitellyea
9/1 Aurora Thunder, Hooper, Seddon, 20/1 Bigz Belief
20/1  Glentruan, 25/1 Arabian King, 25/1 Fontana Ellissi
33/1 Garo De Juilley 

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

COOLE CODY is topweight 
Rated 141 facing a 0-133 field
He is the class horse in this
But he is also 11 years old
Facing a lay off and 12st 1lbs
He is not a safe enough bet

No past winner since 1997
Were aged 9 or more (0-35)
 
COOLE CODY rejected aged 11
GARO DE JUILLEY out aged 10

FRANKY DU BERLAIS aged 9
Older than every past winner

Past renewals since 2000

Horses with 10 + hurdle runs
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-52 record in this
The following horses fail this

COOLE CODY  
GARO DE JUILLEY  
FRANKY DU BERLAIS
HOOPER
AURORA THUNDER

Horses aged 7 or more
Over 9 lifetime races
First time out this year
Have a 0-38 record in this
GLENTRYAN next to try

24 Past renewals
Horses from a chase
Have a 0-47 record in them

COOLE CODY fails this too
BIGZ BELIEF also fails this

SEDDON prepped over 2 miles
Past renewals since 2003 show
 
Horses from hurdles races
Running in the last 75 days
Horses from 2m 3f or less
Have a 0-36 record in them
SEDDON fails this statistic

FORTANA ELLISSI is rated 114
The last 24 winners of this race
Were all rated higher than he is
ARABIAN KING lacks positives

SPANISH PRESENT is a 6yo
He has had just 2 hurdle runs

24 past renewals
Horses with under 3 hurdles
Have a 0-12 record in this
SPANISH PRESENT fails this
Smells fancied in the market
But least experienced hurdler
Had just 1 run this season too
Horses with under 5 hurdle runs
Just 1 run this season are 0-10

Shortlist

ONAGATHERINGSTORM 

LISTENTILLITELLYEA

Selection
 
LISTENTILLITELLYEA 9/1-10/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Cheltenham 4.30

 7/1 Powerful Position, 8/1 Bermeo, 8/1 Go On Chez, 
8/1  Old Town Garde, 10/1 Anightinlambourn, Centurion Steel
12/1 Light Flicker, 12/1 On Springs, 14/1 Huntsmans Jog
14/1 Jimmy The Digger, Super Citizen, The Newest One
16/1 Jony Max, Madera Mist, Nick Lost, 20/1 Earths Furies
20/1 Marracudja, 33/1 Ask Cory, 40/1 Cardboard Gangster
66/1 Fiston Du Mou.
 
Handicap Chase 3m 1f

Amateur Jockeys
 
Trying to narrow this monster down
 
Go back to 1999
22 Past renewals
Horses aged 10 or more
More than 10 chase runs
Have a 0-64 record in this
The following all fail this

MARRACUDJA
BERMEO
NICK LOST
LIGHT FLICKER

Go back to 2007
Past renewals of this race
Horses absent over 107 days
Carrying 10st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-64 record since then
The following all fail this
BERMEO
HUNTSMAN JOG
JIMMY THE DIGGER
THE NEWEST ONE

Go back to 1999
Horses from 2m 5f or shorter
Have a 0-50 record in this race   
The following all fail this

MARRACUDJA 
LIGHT FLICKER
ANIGHTINLAMBOURN
ON SPRINGS
CARDBOARD GANGSTER
OLD TORN GARDE

FISTON DU MOU rated very low
ASK CORY lacks positives
EARTH FURIES has a recent run
Needed a better performance there
MADERA MIST a similar problem

SUPER CITIZEN is resistible
Not many from his sire stay 3m +
Jockey has a 0-39 career record

POWERFUL POSITION a 7yo
Has raced just once in months
Beaten 20 lengths in that race
His 14 day break feels a bit soon
Not sure he did enough last time
He could be on the bounce too

Leaves the following shortlist

GO ON CHEZ
CENTURION STEEL
JONY MAX
 
Selection

JONY MAX 10/1-11/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Dundalk 5.00

5/2 Chicago Lightening, 100/30 Eglish, 5/1 Affable
13/2 Pretty Smart, 7/1 Santa Catarina, 10/1 Sister Lola
16/1 Twins For Joy, 20/1 Clarinbridge, Malaysian
25/1 Cisne, 33/1 Rosie Rock, 50/1 Bella Rosetta
66/1 Angel's Thunder, Belle Femme.

Fillies Claimer 7f

These races are rare

Only 13 have every been

Thats over any distance
And at any time of year

Horses aged 3
Absent over 19 days
Have a 0-34 record in then
The only 3yo winners so far
Had recent runs on their side

CHICAGO LIGHTENING fails this
She is a 3yo and has 52 days off
Happy to go with an older horse

AFFABLE could easily win
She is going up in distance
Since we last saw her race
EGLISH has raced twice more
She has the fittest profile here

SISTER LOLA could go well
Might be the biggest danger 

EGLISH my strong preference

Selection

EGLISH 11/4

Win Bet






 
Cheltenham 5.05

9/4 Hullnback, 5/2 Twinjets, 11/2 Fennor Cross
6/1 Petrossian, 7/1 An Mhi, 14/1 Deere Mark
14/1 Evenwood Sonofagun, 16/1 Carrigdoun Boy
25/1 Galahad Threepwood, 100/1 Commander Of Ten
100/1 Emotional Memories, 200/1 Girandole.

2m Maiden Hurdle 
  
No strong angles 

One option from the market
FENNOR CROSS each way
But he prepped on the flat
And he comes from a sire
I would not trust at Cheltenham
In the last race with rain forecast

AN MHI is just an unraced 5yo
Percentage call is to oppose

EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN
He is a 4yo with 8 hurdle runs
His figures are on the low side
The same can be said for many
But it may be best to concentrate
On the bumper horses last year

HULLNBACK is one of them
No reason why he can't win

TWINJETS unbeaten in 2 races
His trainer is on the record saying

"I'd be very surprised and
 disappointed if he’s not a 
 graded horse"

Race we have to guess in
He would be mine at 2/1

Selection

TWINJETS 2/1-9/4

Win Bet

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