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1 Account Bet  




Account Bet   
 
Newcastle 3.15 

£3.00 Win Bet COURT MASTER 10/1-11/1

£3.00 Each Way COURT MASTER 10/1-11/1

£1.00 Win Bet CHECKITOUT 12/1-14/1

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5



Basically an each way bet
With a saver bet included

Just staked this differently
In a more efficient manner

Best placed on Betfair

Getting slightly better prices






Today's Message


Eider Chase day

Major target race 
Win lose or draw
Top quality preview

Messages now all next week 
Cheltenham festival handicaps
Will be covered from tomorrow


Eider Chase

Newcastle 3.15 

£3.00 Win Bet COURT MASTER 10/1

£3.00 Each Way COURT MASTER 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet CHECKITOUT 12/1


Hard to split these horses
Hard to stake the race too

£2.50 each way on both
Could be the safer stake
But it cuts into any profits


My personal stakes
 
£3.50 Each Way Court Master 10/1

£3.00 Place Bet Checkitout 9/4

This is just a safer option
But one I can not stake officially
Not everybody can or will get on
This is just my own strategy here
Feels better than the advised stake

Obviously a very hard race

Could have played it safer

Gone with easier races to sort

Kempton 1.15

FLEGMATIC 5/1-9/2 

Each Way
 
Lingfield 4.20
SEA THE SUNSET 11/2-6/1 
Each Way



Both of the above

More likely winners than the Eider

But access to prices is a concern

So it is the Eider leading the way

Official bet as stands

But I prefer my staking plan better







Preview Selections  


Chepstow 12.35
Tango Tara 13/8-7/4
Win Bet

Lingfield 1.00
£8.00 Win Bet Aljaryaal 5/2
£2.00 Win Bet Vorashann 4/1

Kempton 1.15
Flegmatik 5/1-9/2 
Each Way

Newcastle 3.15 
£3.00 Win Bet Court Master 10/1
£3.00 Each Way Court Master 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Checkitout 12/1

Kempton 3.37
Phoenix Way 8/1-9/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4 

Fairyhouse 4.18
Burrows Saint 11/8-6/4
Win Bet

Lingfield 4.20
Sea The Sunset 11/2-6/1 
Each Way





PROFILES & PREVIEWS 


Chepstow 12.35

6/4 Marco Island, 15/8 Tango Tara, 4/1 Realm Of Glory
10/1 Girandole, 20/1 Mothill, 33/1 Dreams Of Diamonds
33/1 Teddy The Knight, 50/1 Rabble Rouser
66/1 Endless Adventure.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f

Looks a 4 horse race

REALM OF GLORY is unsafe

January to March
Maiden Hurdles
Run over any distance
Horses aged 7 or more
Just 1 lifetime start
Coming from a bumper
Absent more than 68 days
Have a 0-48 record in them
REALM OF GLORY fails this

At Chepstow over 2m 3f
With the ground heavy
Do we want an unraced hurdler
With a 115 day absence like him
REALM OF GLORY is rejected

GIRANDOLE is only a 4yo
Not strong on breeding stats

Hurdlers sired by No Nay Never
Have a modest 2-44 record so far
None have won beyond 2 miles (0-27)
None with under 17 career starts
Have won a hurdle from this sire
GIRANDOLE is rejected too

Guessing from here

MARCO ISLAND
or
TANGO TARA 

TANGO TARA is a year older
He is not going up in distance
He cost 6 times more money
On heavy ground just prefer him

Selection

TANGO TARA 13/8-7/4

Win Bet





Lingfield 1.00

9/4 Aljaryaal, 5/2 Phoenix Aquilus, 5/1 Vorashann
6/1 Alborkan, Hear Me Out, 14/1 London Eye

16/1 Thibault.



Handicap 2m

Plenty we can't know
With several in this field
Coming from hurdle races
Some of them recent ones

PHOENIX AQUILUS a 5yo
Faces 46 days off the track
If you look at his sire record
His runners absent over 31 days
Have not won beyond 1m 4f
This horse has won over 2m
But it was not a truly run race
And it was not with a lay off
Market prefers him he may win
ALJARYAAL a year younger
Also has to prove he will stay
But this track one of the easiest
And his figures are improving
And comes off a career best
Just drawn more to his profile
Think we can afford a saver

Selection 

£8.00 Win Bet ALJARYAAL 5/2

£2.00 Win Bet VORASHANN 4/1







Kempton 1.15

7/2 Flegmatik, 4/1 Deyrann De Carjac, 4/1 Patroclus
7/1 Le Cameleon, 15/2 Not A Role Model
8/1 One True King, 9/1 Foxboro, Neil The Legend.

Handicap Chase 2m 4f
14 past renewals  

DEYRAAN DE CARJAC a 9yo
Fancied and he looks well treated 

Do we want a 9yo absent 56 days ?
None won this absent over 40 days
Don't worry about that too much

Drops down from a Graded race
The only horse in the race doing it
What does trouble me about that
None of the 14 past winners did it
Only 8 tried but all were beaten
DEYRAAN DE CARJAC the 9th
Just makes me cautious about him

In fact no winners of this race
Were going up in class either
It has always so far been won 
By solid class 2 -class 3 horses
FOXBORO fails this up in class
LE CAMELEON does as well

ONE TRUE KING is a positive
If I could change one thing here
It would be not coming up 4f

PATROCLUS another positive
If I could change 1 thing here
I'd like more than 2 chase runs
But the 2020 and 2011 winners
Both won with just 2 chase runs

FLEGMATIC I also like as well
He is dropping down in distance
Sire stats suggest that is helpful
He's just won a 3m Class 3 race
But no horses sired by Fuisse
Won over 3m in a higher grade
Feel several of his previous runs
Were excusable on breeding stats

FLEGMATIC

Has ran in 9 handicap chases
The class range of them this

0-139  0-147  0-142 
0-142  0-136  0-129 
0-133  0-137  0-135

FLEGMATIC is rated 130 here
He only faces a 0-129 class race
He's been running in better grades

We could corner the 2 class horses
PATROCLUS is the 2nd in weights
We also get the big improver too
He is very tempting as the saver
ONE TRUE KING also an option

Win Bet and saver
Was seriously considered
But can not split my savers
And with 8 runners 
Decided to go each way
     
Selection

FLEGMATIK 5/1-9/2

Each Way





Newcastle 3.15 

11/2 History Of Fashion, 6/1 Eclair Surf, 8/1 Danilo D'Airy
9/1 Domaine De L'Isle, 10/1 Checkitout, Court Master
14/1 Potters Corner, 14/1 Rath An Iuir, 16/1 Achille
16/1 Cash To Ash, 16/1 Innisfree Lad, 16/1 Just Your Type
16/1 Win My Wings, 20/1 Gwencily Berbas, Lake View Lad
25/1 Brave Eagle 

Class 2 Handicap 4m1f 

Starting with the elders

Go back to 2007
Handicap Chases 3m 3f +
Run in Listed + Graded class
Horses aged 12 or more
Have a horrible 1-169 record

POTTERS CORNER a 12yo
ACHILLE is also a 12yo
LAKE VIEW LAD is as well 

January February March
Handicap Chases 3m 3f +
Run in Class 2 or higher
With more than 5 runners 
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 44 days
Had a 0-89 record in them 
POTTERS CORNER fails this
GWENCILY BERBAS does too

LAKE VIEW LAD is rated 142

Official Ratings of winners 
139 135 140 127 126 134 133 131 
132 125 139 138 131 137 123 123 121 
No past winners have won
When rated higher than 140 
Since as far back as 1997 

DOMAINE DE L'ISLE also fails this
He has topweight and is rated 144
Looks unsafe on sire stats as well

Horses sired by Network
Running over 3m 3f or more
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a modest 0-23 record 

ECLAIR SURF is rated 143
No past winners have won
When rated higher than 140 
Since as far back as 1997 
He is not the best age anyway

Horses aged 8
Have not had a great record
Since 2002 horses aged 8 are 1-39
None won absent over 29 days  

But if you go back to 1997
No horse aged 8 or younger
Won absent more than 23 days
These horses had a 0-59 record 
ECLAIR SURF fails this angle  
 
Every past winner was rated 121 + 

Every winner since 1998 rated 123 +
  
DANILO D'AIRY is rated only 120
He's be the lowest rated winner
He has had only 3 chase races

Past winners had the following  
17 7 7 11 8 11 5 5 
7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8

No past winner of this handicap
Won it with under 5 chase runs 
DANILO D'AIRY fails this stat 

RATH AN LUIR has 3 chase runs
Every past winner had 5 or more
He has raced once in 15 months
Is that well prepared for 4 miles ?

HISTORY OF FASHION is an 8yo
Irish raider with 4 chase starts
No past winner of this handicap
Won it with under 5 chase runs

Can we forgive him that angle ?
Possibly but breeding stats weak
Horses sired by Mustameet 
Running over 3m 2f or more
Have a 1-14 record to date
But his runners on softer ground
Have yet to win beyond 3m 1f

He is also only an 8 year old
Since 2002 horses aged 8 are 1-39 

He's ridden by a conditional rider
Who has a modest 7-293 record
Only ridden 1 chase winner (1-27)
Never won a race beyond 3 miles
Never ridden at this track before

This is interesting
Go back to 1997
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 3f and more
Run in Class 2 or higher
With 10 or more runners 
Run at any time of year

Jockeys claiming 7lbs or more
Carrying 10st 5lbs or more
You find a 0-83 record in them

No conditional 7lbs claimer
Has won a similar race to this
With more than a light weight

3 horses fail this statisic

DOMAINE DE L'ISLE
POTTERS CORNER
HISTORY OF FASHION

Will their riders have enough
In the business end of the race

Past winners of this race
Had the following hurdle runs
6 5 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 0

No past winners
Had more than 9 hurdle runs
The following horses fail this
 
POTTERS CORNER 
INNISFREE LAD
WIN MY WINGS

WIN MY WINGS discussed later
INNISFREE LAD is quite exposed
He is a 10yo with 32 career starts

Every recent winner
Had under 23 career runs 
Those with more were 0-86

The following are exposed
 
LAKE VIEW LAD 32 runs
GWENCILY BERBAS 32 runs
POTTERS CORNER 31 runs
ACHILLE 29 runs  
DOMAINE DE L'ISLE 26 runs 
INNISFREE LAD has 32 runs 

Need to look at the horses
That are aged 10 or older

Eider Chases since 1997
Horses aged 10 or more
Return a fair 5-127 record

But the years they did win
Were on very soft ground

Horses aged 10 or more

Heavy Ground they are 4-38 

Soft Ground they are 1-33 

Good-Soft they are 0-28 

Good ground  they are 0-20

Horses aged 10 or more
Have only won on soft or heavy
The soft ground win they did have
Was a horse (2016) absent 9 days
He had just recently won 20 lengths  

When horses aged 10 or more
Raced on Good to soft or better
They have a 0-48 record in them

JUST YOUR TYPE fails this angle
He is a bit exposed with 18 chases
  
Past winners
Had the Following Chase runs
17 7 7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8
Only 1 past winner had more runs
But last years winner had 1 fewer
Back in 2019 he was 6th in this
Having had just 3 chase races
He is lower in the handicap here
But that was 3 years ago now
And the history of this race shows
His age only win on softer ground

BRAVE EAGLE also fails this stat
Don't see a big case for him here
Not as a 10yo with 56 days off
And carrying 11st 6lbs weight

Eider renewals
Run since 1997
Horses aged 10 or more
Absent more than 28 days
Have a weak 1-75 record
BRAVE EAGLE fails this angle
JUST YOUR TYPE  marginally does
POTTERS CORNER fails it too
ACHILLE has the same problem

CASH TO ASH is a 9yo
Little bit on the exposed side
When you consider his class
His two career runs so far
Came in two grades lower
Came in small 6 runner races
Not the safest sire in the race
But he does have staying form
Stables last winner 123 days ago
They are 0-50 since that winner
He will need a career best here

That leaves 3 horses

Shortlist

CHECKITOUT 12/1

WIN MY WINGS 15/2

COURT MASTER 12/1 


WIN MY WINGS

Heavily backed
Tipped up in many places
She is a 9 year old mare 

With 46 days off after a win
Her profile far from bomb proof
But she well could be improving 
Lightly raced career best last time

This is one angle
That she has to overcome

Go back to 2007
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 1f and more
Run in Class 2 and higher
Run any time of the year

Mares aged 9 or older 
Have a modest 3-87 record

Those absent over 24 days
Have a 0-50 record in them

Those with under 10st 12lbs +
Have a 0-14 record in them

No surprise if she does win
But none like her have done
In any similar race in 15 years

Thought about a saver on her
But the price has long gone now
WIN MY WINGS is 3rd choice
But price and profile resistible

 
CHECKITOUT is an 8 year old
He made the midweek shortlist

He is also only an 8 year old
Since 2002 horses aged 8 are 1-39 
I do like his stamina profile though
Want him on my side despite age
His win at Fontwell was scrappy
But likely to have hated the track
Given so many really strong runs
On much bigger stiffer courses

COURT MASTER is a 9 year old
Comes here after an easy victory 
Some argue he needs small fields
I'd argue that was inconclusive
And too early to pigeon hole him 
Interesting the trainer and owner
Have won this race back in 2017
 
12 of the last 13 Eider winners

Shared the following profile

1) Between 5 and 14 Chase runs
2) Under 10 Hurdle runs
3) Aged 7-8-9-10-11
4) At least 2 runs this season
5) Coming from 2m 7f       

CHECKITOUT has this profile

COURT MASTER has this profile

Both horses
Are coming up a grade in class
The following system shows us
That is not an issue for either
  
Horses aged 8-9-10-11
Coming from Class 3 or lower
Under 20 career starts
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Or not completing last time too
Coming from 2m 6f or more
Have a pretty strong 7-26 record
This profile won this in these years
 2002 2006 2009 2015 2016 2017 2018

CHECKITOUT has this profile

COURT MASTER has this profile


 
Selection

£3.00 Win Bet COURT MASTER 10/1

£3.00 Each Way COURT MASTER 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet CHECKITOUT 12/1






Kempton 3.37

11/2 Annsam, 7/1 Cap Du Nord, 7/1 Five Star Getaway
15/2 The Big Breakaway, 9/1 Galahad Quest, Phoenix Way
10/1 Zanza, Zhiguli, 12/1 Enrilo, 12/1 Our Power
14/1 Good Boy Bobby, 16/1 Lalor, 20/1 Beakstown
20/1 Kitty's Light.
 
Graded Handicap Chase 3m

Better known in the past
As the Racing Post Chase

Sent some angles midweek
Did not feel they are great
Observations from the stats

THE BIG BREAKAWAY
No winners came from hurdles
No winners beaten last time out
Ran within the last 3 weeks (0-21)
Might win but was not a match
GALAHAD QUEST is a 6yo
Last 6yo to win this 22 years ago
KITTYS LIGHT is also a 6yo

CAP TO NORD is so exposed
 
Past winners
Had the following Chase runs

13 9 10 11 4 17 10 8 3 28 6 9 6 7
11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 4
CAP TO NORD has now had 26

14 of the last 15 winners
Had no more than 17 chases
Those with more were 1-46 
CAP TO NORD fails this stat

He is very well handicapped here
If he wins it is because of that
But on profile he doesn't tempt
LALOR a 10yo is older than ideal
ZANZA didn't look safe enough
OUR POWER has 4 chase runs
Fell at the first in one of those
He could be done for experience
ENRILO does have his positives
But 2 runs this year PU and Fell
Gives him an underraced look
GOOD BOY BOBBY topweight
Won last time but 62 days ago
Not sold about that combination 
Of a big weight and an absence

FIVE STAR GETAWAY an option

ANNSAM looks shortlistable
But young and has an absence

ZHIGULI has had 4 chase runs
Would have liked more up in trip

PHOENIX WAY is unexposed
Just done a career best last time
Very hard race he is the choice

Selection

PHOENIX WAY 8/1-9/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4 






Fairyhouse 4.18

6/4 Burrows Saint, 5/2 Any Second Now
3/1 Escaria Ten, 6/1 Coko Beach.

Bobbyjo Chase

BURROWS SAINT

Finished second last year
Has every chance or winning
With all his rivals questionable

ANY SECOND NOW a 10yo
3rd in last years Grand National
This could be a prep run for that

COKO BEACH is 7 years old
Younger than all recent winners

ESCARIA TEN is an 8 year old
Comes from a brilliant trial race
But was beaten a long way there
It was his first run of the season
He could be underraced today

BURROWS SAINT

The only horse hard to knock
Stable won the last 6 renewals
And 8 of the past 10 renewals

Selection

BURROWS SAINT 11/8-6/4

Win Bet






Lingfield 4.20

6/4 King Of Time, 4/1 Borgi, 4/1 Sea The Sunset
7/1 Ludus, 12/1 My Lovely Sylv, 14/1 Combat Style
20/1 Got Carter, Pearl Reef, 25/1 Prime Objective
66/1 Ravi Road, Shifter.

3yo Novice 8f

Several of these 3 year olds
Will not have the class to win

KING OF TIMES is unraced
So we don't know if he has
Powerful connections onside
Cost a lot of money as well
So why is he weak in market

BORGI cost only £3500  
Did well to win first time out
But a slow 7f Southwell surface
This 8f is a different kind of test
He gives weight to everything
Was not my fist choice to win
COMBAT STYLE is rejected
Don't see much in a 33/1 debut

LUDUS ran a decent debut
Unfancied and not well drawn
He could be a big player in this
Equally it could be a little sharp

SEA THE SUNSET is a player

Cost 135k 
Well backed on debut 
Missed the break that day
Very slow early pace hurt him
Made it an inadequate test
Finished well not knocked about
Felt he was the bet each way

Selection

SEA THE SUNSET 11/2-6/1

Each Way

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