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Preview Selections

Musselburgh 2.20
Gemologist 2/1
Win Bet

Musselburgh 2.50
£7.00 Win Bet Antagonize 3/1
£3.00 Win Bet Carter Cowboy 9/4

Punchestown 3.40
£2.50 Each Way Golf Marin 11/1-12/1
£2.50 Each Way Walnut Beach 11/1-12/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5 (6)

Redcar 3.50
Liangel Hope 15/8-7/4
Win Bet

Punchestown 4.50 
£2.50 Each Way Vital Island 14/1
£5.00 Place Bet Shady Operator 10/11
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Punchestown 6.00
£4.50 Each Way Bugs Moran 10/1-11/1
£1.00 Win Bet City Chief 8/1 
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5 (6)





Today's Message     


Little unlucky today

The 2 strongest bets 
Both at Musselburgh
Have been damaged
With late non runners

In the last 60-90 mins


Punchestown

Big priced selections
Sporting chances no more
But angles are interesting
  
Non runners hurt us today

My own personal preference

Will not appeal to many of you

That is in the next column

Now not going with a best bet

Blank day down to race changes






Underneath The Message   
  
Scrappy week so far

Taken a couple of messages
To get right back up to speed
Often the case after a day off
Following a long run of days
 
Been rather unlucky today
With a couple of non runners
Both have influenced my bets

Was going to highlight
Both Musselburgh races
But these were affected
Compromised in last hour

My main interest today

Saturdays decs and draw

Especially for the guineas

Just come through late

15 declared for the 2000g

Todays chance of a bet gone


Redcar 3.50

Liangel Hope 15/8-7/4


Not having a win bet myself
On Betfairs each way market
If I can get some 7/4 each way
That is my personal best bet

But 10 minutes ago
Had not even considered it
But lost my best two options
I'd be happy to have a nibble






Yesterday's Summary 
  
We got a bit spanked yesterday
Red flagged message concerns
Did not have confidence in that
And results proved that correct
Aside from the dirty burglary bet  
We got nothing back to celebrate
Given 4 bets with 10/1 or bigger
Had no right to expect too much
But it was lame and lacked punch
Hollow Games was my best bet
Raced well for a while on outside
But nothing to give in later stages
Felt I just chose the wrong path
Punchestown was too ambitious




PROFILES & PREVIEWS   





Musselburgh 2.20

4/5 The Resdev Way 2/1 Gemologist 7/2 Topkapi Star.

2m Handicap

Different types  
Different profiles

TOMORROW'S ANGEL a 7yo
She is mare with 180 days off
She has to carry topweight too

Go back to 2007
Handicaps over 1m 7f +
Any class of race
Any time of year
Mares aged 6 or more
Absent over 150 days
Have a 0-40 record in them
TOMORROW'S ANGEL fails this

Should oppose her on that
But in a 5 runner handicap
We should not get too excited 
TOPKAPI STAR also a mare
Has had half a race in 120 days
Not a negative in a small field

Two have been very busy

THE RESDEV WAY ran 5 days ago
He is fit and running well enough
Probably doesn't quite stay 2 miles
Got away with it once and may win

WILL HE DANCE has a fit profile
What bothers me about his form
Only a lightly raced 4 year old
Racing Post Ratings look limited
He has raced 9 times in his life
Best figure he produced was 53
Going to reject him because of it

GEMOLOGIST is a paradox
Handicap certainty that never wins
She has a 0-42 career record so far
But she is effective here and stays

WILL HE DANCE a non runner

And don't you just know it

TOMORROWS ANGEL is also out

That's collapsed the preview

Ruined the entire preview


Selection

GEMOLOGIST 2/1

Win Bet

Musselburgh 2.50

9/4 Carter Cowboy, 100/30 Antagonize
6/1 Just Hiss, 8/1 Markazi 9/1 We Still Believe
10/1 Ayr Empress 14/1 Chinese Spirit.

9f Handicap

The topweights in this

MARKAZI
JUST KISS

They are both aged 8 or more
Just have one run this season
Both well beaten in those races
There is a very good case here
That they will lack form/fitness
To be able to defy their weights
Can not match either to a winner

Staying with questionable fitness
CHINESE SPIRIT is 8 years old
Comes here with months absence
AYR EMPRESS is a 4yo filly
Exposed with 17 career starts
For an absence of several months
Not impressed with her profile

WE STILL BELIEVE is an option
Not ran well in his last two races

ANTAGONISE is respected
But just the 1 race in 7 months
That race being 54 days ago
Does not make a fit profile
For a horse as old as he is
But won 2nd time out last year
And the best bet is a non runner


Like the momentum horses

Fit profiles and recent races

CARTER COWBOY clearly one
Would see him more as a saver

RED BOND ran 2 days ago
Fittest profile in the race
Hoping that gets him home

Annoyingly

RED BOND is a non runner

Going to pivot now

ANTAGONISE becomes 7/4 +
Most cash back on favourite

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet ANTAGONISE 3/1

£3.00 Win Bet CARTER COWBOY 9/4





Punchestown 3.40

6/1 Gin Coco, 15/2 Hide And Seek, 9/1 Ideal Pal
10/1 Broomfield Hall, 12/1 Golden Spear, Luke Short
14/1 Mount Brown, 14/1 Only Sky, 14/1 Walnut Beach
16/1 Bold Approach, Cafe Con Leche, 16/1 Golf Marin,
16/1 The Greek, 18/1 The Grey Falco, 20/1 Colenso
20/1 Jake Peter, Serenity Grove, 25/1 Global Society
25/1 Hisnameis Mrdevitt, 25/1  Na Caith Tobac
25/1  Powersbomb, 33/1 Hidden Land, Mountain Fox
33/1 Pike County, 50/1 Figurehead.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

Many of the market leaders
Are unexposed lightly raced
Not sure that's what we want

GIN COCO is topweight
He only has 3 career runs
All 7 past winners of this
Had 7 or more lifetime runs
Those with fewer are 0-22
The following horses fail this

GIN COCO
HIDE AND SEAK
SERENITY GROVE
MOUNT BROWN

April and May
Punchestown 
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 5f or less
Any class of race
Horses with under 5 runs
Have a 0-70 record in them
The following horses fail this
GIN COCO
SERENITY GROVE

Horses aged 7 are 0-30 in this
Horses aged 7 or more are 0-79
Opposing these older horses
POWERSBOMB
GOLDEN SPEAR
PIKE COUNTY
MOUNTAIN FOX
JAKE PETER
THE GREY FALCO
GLOBAL SOCIETY
BROOMFIELD HALL


ONLY SKY is a 4yo filly
Beatable from a mares maiden

Horses who last time out
Did not do nearly enough
HIDDEN LAND
FIGUREHEAD
HISNAMEIS MRDEVITT
BOLD APPROACH 
 
Punchestown
All Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
February to May
Horses aged 5
Over 8 career starts
Absent more than 27 days
Return a 0-46 record  
LUKE SHORT fails this angle
WALNUT BEACH also fails it
Both only just fail this angle
LIKE SHORT comes out weaker
As his flat race was over a mile
WALNUT BEACH is no negative
Quite like bits of what I can see

NA CAITH TOBAC is resistible
Coming from a 1m 2f flat race
THE GREEK has 95 days off
Far longer than all past winners
Always felt he wanted further

CAFE CON LECHE has a chance
Not keen on his sire or absence

The 2016 2019 2021 winners

All did the same thing
Came from a Novice Handicap
Run at Fairyhouse 10 days ago

IDEAL PAL won that race
He is worryingly exposed

GOLF MARIN finished 4th
He flopped in this last year
Fancied at 15/2 but ran badly
Statistically too inexperienced

With 5 and 6 places available
Drawn most to the split stake
Need just one to finish placed

Selection

£2.50 Each Way GOLF MARIN 11/1-12/1

£2.50 Each Way WALNUT BEACH 11/1-12/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5 (6)





Redcar 3.50

6/4 Liangel Hope, 4/1 Ardat, 4/1 Emily Post
4/1 Jungley, 9/1 St Asaph, 16/1 Albeseeingyer
100/1 Bobby Dalton, Byday.

7f Novice (3yo)

LIANGEL HOPE

Sets the standard so far

Not that high a standard
Numbers not progressive
Beaten at odds on 3 times
Wondered if he's trained on

But he is the fittest horse
He is the momentum horse
Having watched some races
He looks like he trained on
I think he should be winning
Badly placed in certain races
Ran into a hotpot last time out
Big gap back to the 3rd horse
Not first time that happened
This 7f distance could help  
Not too exposed over this far
Has enough positives to win

Selection

LIANGEL HOPE 15/8/7/4

Win Bet





Punchestown 4.50 

11/4 Shady Operator, 7/2 Tout Est Permis
5/1 Go Another One, 8/1 Potters Corner, Vital Island
10/1 Neverushacon, 12/1 Blast Of Koeman
14/1 Singing Banjo, 16/1 Call It Magic, 20/1 Super Citizen
25/1 Ballyboker Bridge, Michael's Pick, 50/1 Clonguile Way
50/1 King's Song, 66/1 Save Us Avis, Three Loud Knocks
100/1 Future Proof. 

La Touche Cup

Cross Country Chase 4m 2f

Several of these
Including market leaders 
Have stamina doubts

Some doubtful stayers
Ran at Cheltenham last time
SHADY OPERATOR is one
Beaten out of sight there
TOUT EST PERMIS pulled up
You don't tend to win this
On the back of a bad run
Horses beaten 20 + lengths
On their last start are 0-55
SHADY OPERATOR fails this
POTTERS CORNER does too
As do several of the outsiders

Horses absent over 51 days
Have a worrying 1-50 record
BALLYBROKER BRIDGE fails this
GO ANOTHER ONE does as well
He's another not sure to stay

 
SIZING BANJO won this in 2011
But was fitter in better form too
This year he is 12 years old
And coming up from a 2m 6f race
NEVERUSHACON a similar task
He is 11 and prepped over 2m 4f
Neither profile is remotely safe

Messy race
Compromises must be made
Going for an ambitious strategy

VITAL ISLAND is interesting
With a good win just 2 days ago
On paper he is not sure to stay
But the same is said for many
 
SHADY OPERATOR at 10/11
Could be the place saver bet
Hating the ground at Cheltenham

Selection

£2.50 Each Way VITAL ISLAND 14/1

£5.00 Place Bet SHADY OPERATOR 10/11

1/5 Odds


1-2-3-4






Punchestown 6.00

6/1 City Chief, Macs Charm, 8/1 Bugs Moran
8/1 Festival D'ex, 10/1 Sassy Yet Classy
10/1 Sparkling Stars 10/1 The Bomber Liston
14/1 Silver Sheen, 20/1 Capilano Bridge, Doctor Duffy
20/1 Mahler Allstar, 20/1 Midnight It Is, 20/1 Panda Boy
20/1 Whatsavailable, 25/1 A Great View, Unexpected Depth
33/1 Bread And Butter, 33/1 Broomfields Jeremy, 
33/1 Dark Voyager 33/1 Maze Runner, 33/1 Morosini
33/1 The Very Man, Tucanae, Walking On Glass
50/1 Mercury Lane.
 
Handicap Hurdle 3m

Big field

Past renewals suggest

Lighter raced horses are best

Horses with over 14 hurdles
Have a 0-35 record in this race

Horses with over 18 career runs
Have a 0-54 record in this race

Horses absent 7 or more weeks
Have a 0-59 record in this race
    
Horses from 2m 3f or shorter
Have a 0-53 record in this race

Horses who last time out
Were beaten over 20 + lengths
Have a 0-71 record in the race

Horses from maiden hurdles
Have a winless 0-16 record

I'd want the following

Under 19 career starts
Under 15 hurdle races
A race within 7 weeks
Horse from 2m 4f or more
Beaten < 20 lengths last time
Not from a maiden hurdle

Leaves me with this shortlist

CITY CHIEF
BUGS MORAN
SPARLING STARS
SILVER SHEEN

Horses aged 5
Under 10 career starts
Coming from Fairyhouse
In the 2m novice handicap
Beaten under 15 lengths
Have a 3-11 record in this
BUGS MORAN has this profile
 
Selection

£4.50 Each Way BUGS MORAN 10/1-11/1

£1.00 Win Bet  CITY CHIEF 8/1 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5 (6)





 
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES     





Classic Weekend

Saturday - 2000 Guineas

Sunday - 1000 Guineas

Neither great statistical races
Both declarations and draw
Will be released very shortly  
Draw could make a difference
Read all the normal angles
Done many myself over time
Sometimes instinct is the way





2000 Guineas

11/10 Native Trail 5/1 Coroebus 5/1 Luxembourg
14/1 Perfect Power 16/1 Point Lonsdale 
25/1 Dubawi Legend 5/1 Checkandchallenge 
33/1 Eydon 50/1 Light Infantry 50/1 Bayside Boy 
50/1 Royal Patronage 50/1 Dr Zempf 100/1 Angel Bleu 
100/1 Lusail 100/1 Tacarib Bay 100/1 Berkshire Shadow
100/1 Boundless Ocean 100/1 Glounthaune
100/1 The Wizard of Eye

Looks a split stake race this year

NATIVE RIVER the saver bet 11/10
With a win or a place bet alongside
Doubt we can do much this renewal





1000 Guineas

11/4 Tenebrism 11/2 Discoveries 
6/1 Homeless Songs 6/1 Tuesday 7/1 Malavath 
10/1 Zellie 10/1 Mise En Scene 11/1 Wild Beauty
14/1 Cachet 16/1 Sandrine 16/1 Juncture
20/1 Toy 25/1 Ameynah 25/1 Prosperous Voyage
33/1 Hello You 100/1 Flash Betty

More open of the two races
Have a lot more freedom in this
But it is always the harder race

TEMEBRISM is the favourite

Will she stay a mile in a Group 1
On the back of a long absence
And sired by sprinter Caravaggio
I will have other angles with her
Doubt she will be the selection

DISCOVERIES also first time out
Faces a similar challenge as well
She will fail a small breeding stat

Going to wait for both their draw
And see if it adds to their burdens

TUESDAY is from Aidan

Said to have blossomed lately
But she is a very late June foal
And fails one of my guineas stats
That nobody else has ever used
    
1000 + 2000 Guineas
Both races since 1989 
Horses with 1 run as a 3yo
Having under 3 career runs
Are 0-68 in both classics
TUESDAY fails this statistic
She will not be my selection

Will hunt for an each way
But several of those options
Can be questioned on stamina






Saturday

Ante Post Statistics

Thirsk 2.05


Thirsk Hunt Cup

9/2 Long Tradition 5/1 Astro King 6/1 Lion Tower
7/1 Trais Fluors 9/1 Empirestateofmind 9/1 Starshiba
9/1 On A Session 10/1 Cruyff Turn 10/1 Delgrey Boy
12/1 Skilled Warrior 12/1 Dubai Love 14/1 Fame And Acclaim
14/1 Jean Baptiste 14/1 Pisanello 16/1 Copper And Five
20/1 Redarna 25/1 Tangled 25/1 Valorant 25/1 Snash
33/1 Mykonos St John 40/1 Visibility

This normally falls
To horses aged 4-5-6 

Go back to 2005
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-63 record in this

High weights struggle
Horses with 9st 8lbs + are 0-15
Horses with 9st 5lbs + are 1-36

Horses aged 5 or more
Rated 92 or higher
Have a 0-68 record in this
 
Recent runs are important

12 of the last 14 winners
Ran within the last 28 days
Horses absent longer are 2-74

Horses with 10 or more runs
Absent more than 28 days
Have a 0-62 record in this  

Most winners
Were having their 2nd run this year
Most came from Class 2-3 handicaps
They were all beaten in that race
But not by more than 15 lengths

No winner came from 6f or shorter
None dropped from 1m 3f or more

Horses from 7f races this year
Only won with a run within 2 weeks

No horse won from stall 1 (0-14)

Official Ratings of past winners

86 92 93 100 86 90 91 

88 87 84 86 88 88 91 

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