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Today's Message 
  
Not an expansive message
Cards are a bit limited today
Significantly busier tomorrow
Do not want to waste bullets
Or get stuck down in sand 


Message choice

Wincanton 5.05

STORMIN CROSSGALES 11/10

Win Bet 



I thought he should win
Would have liked better figures
But my angles do agree with me
So will make him by best today



Preview Selections 

Lingfield 1.00
£5.00 Win Bet The Game Is On 6/1-13/2
£5.00 Place Bet Broughtons Flare 1/1

Wincanton 2.10
Getaway Cory 4/1 
Each Way

Wincanton 5.05
Stormin Crossgales 11/10
Win Bet 




New Column
 
(Yet to be Named) 

Going to miss the first 2
As I will be at the dentist
Not sure about best bet
Probably likely to leave it
It is just a bit too boring
Last of the tedious todays
Before it gets busier now


Yesterdays Summary     

Non committal message
Turned out to be worth it
One of two favourites won
Canceled each other out
At least at morning prices
The third selection won
Got the 1st and 2nd there
Good for the confidence
Even on a non combat day





PROFILES & PREVIEWS

  

Lingfield 1.00

3/1 Broughtons Flare, 4/1 English Spirit
5/1 Luna Magic, 8/1 Caribbean Spring, Courtside
8/1 Dutugamunu, The Game Is On, 10/1 Lightning Blue
25/1 Ahorsecalledwanda, 33/1 Faline, 40/1 UAE Soldier.

8f Handicap

Amateur riders

ENGLISH SPIRIT is a 4yo
He is going up in distance
On any other track to this
I'd argue he may not stay
But we can all stay 8f here
But there is a doubt about it
And just 1 run in 105 days
Happy to look elsewhere

There are two mares in this
Dropping down from 12f to 8f
Weak profile so not my choice
LUNA MAGIC has this problem
LIGHTNING BLUE does as well

CARIBBEAN SPIRIT is a 9yo
Running consistently poor figures
BROUGHTONS FLARE is respected
But he is no better than this grade
Stall 1 could make things difficult 

COURTSIDE an exposed 7 year old
Has raced just twice in 12 months
There are fitter profiles against him

DUTIGAMUNA is shortlistable
In the same time he has 3 runs
THE GAME IS ON has had 8 runs
He also has backclass on his side
Badly draw wide passage last time

Rather than bet each way
Going to split stake the race
BROUGHTONS FLARE place
As he has the fittest profile

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet THE GAME IS ON 6/1-13/2

£5.00 Place Bet BROUGHTONS FLARE 1/1






Wincanton 2.10

5/2 Salley Gardens, 7/2 The Raven's Return
5/1 Getaway Cory, 6/1 Get The Appeal, 7/1 Dan's Chosen
7/1  Zyon, 14/1 Butterwick Brook, 25/1 Aubusson
33/1 Frame Rate, 50/1 Mcgregors Charge.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

Amateur Riders

Some mild points of interest
Several inexperienced riders
The top 2 horses in the weights
Are being ridden by 16 year olds
GET THE APPEAL has topweight
Paul Nicholls daughters 1st rider
BUTTERWICK BROOK likewise
Ridden by a 16 year old as well
Good luck to them but not for me
Both of their horses had weight
And have been absent weeks

THE RAVEN'S RETURN a 9yo
Another ridden by a 16 year old
He has positives in his profile
Would see him as a big danger

SALLEY GARDENS is a 6yo
Opposing him absent 134 days

February March April
Amateur Riders Handicaps
Run in this class and lower
Run over any distance 
Horses under 7 years old
Absent more than 65 days
Have a 0-57 record in them
SALLEY GARDENS fails this

ZYON pulled up last time
Horses doing that in these races
Rarely bounce back to win
Another inexperienced jockey 

GETAWAY CORY rated 89
Bothers me he is a lightweight
But he has one of the best pilots
And a fit in form profile few offer

Selection

GETAWAY CORY 4/1

Each Way




Wincanton 5.05

13/8 Stormin Crossgales, 2/1 Moorland Rambler
5/1 Chalgrove, 8/1 French Bumper, 10/1 The Turtle Said
33/1 Lighthouse Mill, 33/1 Pixie Loc, 33/1 Time For Bell
100/1 Kentford Drake.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Market dominated by 3 horses
CHALGROVE has bumper form
May not stop him winning this
But his two main market rivals 
Have had 2 runs over hurdles
Have the edge in experience
And his profile is less inviting

Go back to 2009
February March April
Maiden Hurdles 
Run over 2m 1f and less
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 163 days
Have a 0-81 record in them
CHAIRGROVE fails this angle
He has had 412 days absence

STORMIN CROSSGALES

Offers more than his rivals
He was the most expensive

He also has the best numbers
Has a reasonable edge on them
Moorland Rambler a 4 year old
Is a year younger than him

STORMIN CROSSGALES last time
Finished 3rd in a better novice
Drops from a novice to a maiden
Feel we can upgrade his last run
Made him a negative last time out
He failed a 1-91 statistic that day

MOORLAND RAMBLER
Has a far less inviting profile
 
Go back to 2009
February March April
Maiden Hurdles 
Any course
Any distance
Horses aged 4
From a maiden hurdle
Under 8 career starts
Under 4 hurdle starts
Running within 2 months
Have a 0-59 record in them
MOORLAND RAMBLER fails this

Selection

STORMIN CROSSGALES 11/10

Win Bet 






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 
 


Saturday April 2nd

Ayr 3.35

Scottish Grand National

5/1 Kitty's Light 7/1 Win My Wings 10/1 Stormy Judge 
12/1 The Ferry Master 14/1 Fortescue 14/1 Fantastikas
14/1 Ashtown Lad  14/1 Rightplacerightime 
14/1 History of Fashion 14/1 Enrilo 14/1 The Wolf 
14/1 Major Dundee 16/1 Cool Mix  16/1 Jersey Bean 
16/1 Ask A Honey Bee 16/1 Hewick 20/1 Court Master 
20/1 Chirico Vallis  20/1 Via Dolorosa 20/1 Nestor Park 
20/1 Hill Sixteen 20/1 Innisfree Lad 25/1 Go Another One 
33/1 Fidux  33/1 Streets of Doyen 33/1 Vintage Clouds
33/1 Prime Venture 33/1 El Paso Wood, One More Fleurie 
50/1 Strong Economy 50/1 Supreme Escape
   

Statistics sent yesterday

Final Declarations tomorrow

Starting with the favourite

KITTY'S LIGHT is a 6 year old 

Horses aged 6
Have a 0-17 record since 1997
The last to win was back in 1994

KITTY'S LIGHT has 13 chase runs
Has 11st 6lbs weight to carry too

Every runner aged 6 or 7 in this
Are far less exposed over fences
This angle suggests he is unsafe

Go back to 2007
January  to October
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 1f and more
Listed and Graded class
Horses under 8 years old
More than 10 chase runs
Have a 0-86 record in them
KITTY'S LIGHT fails this stat

Makes sense as well
Younger horses need to improve
And the most chase runs they have
The less improvement they offer
KITTY'S LIGHT looks vulnerable

Number of runs that season

6 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 6 5 3 3 5 
4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
No horse has won this
With under 3 runs that year
The following all fail this

JERSEY BEAN
STORMY JUDGE

Past winners chase runs

5 16 5 13 7 22 10 6 18 4 10 16
13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
  
None had under 4 chase runs
MAJOR DUNDEE only has 3

HEWICK is a 7 year old
Carrying 11st 12lbs a big ask
No 7yo won with over 11st 3lbs
No 7yo won rated 147 or more
None won on softer ground

HEWICK does has these issus

FANTASTIKA has them as well
He also comes from Cheltenham
That has not been a good prep

Horses who last time out
Ran in a Cheltenham Handicap 
Had a 0-70  record since 1999
RIGHTPLACERIGHTTIME does
ONE MORE FLEURIE does too

VINTAGE CLOUDS is too olf
PRIME VENTURE opposable
FIDUX is absent too long

No horse with 11st 3lbs or more
Won this absent over 6 weeks
FORTRESCUE on the cusp of it
He has 11st 10lbs and 42 days off
That possibly is quite a lot to ask
GO ANOTHER ONE fails this angle
FIDUX already rejected does too

ASHDOWN LAD is on the borderline
If you look at past 8yo winners
They all had more career starts
They all had more chase runs too
No past 8yo winner was like him

HILL SIXTEEN comes from 2m 7f
NESTOR PARK comes from 2m6f
I'd knock points off for doing this 

THE FERRY MASTER is similar
Last time running short of 3m
Sired by Elusive Pimpernel too
Mut be a serious stamina doubt
That sire as no winners past 3m

COOL MIX prepped over 2m 6f
Rare the winner of this does that
EL PASO WOOD too exposed
VIA DOLOROSA 
Horses who last time out
Fell or pulled up are 1-140 
STREETS OF DOYEN fails this
STRONG ECONOMY fails this
SUPREME ESCAPE does too

WIN MY WINGS won the Eider
INNISFREE LAD finished 2nd
COURT MASTER was in 4th
The Eider is not a good trial 
All 10 that prepped there failed
We did have a second place
But this year a shorter break
Eider runners get 35 days off
Normally they get 49 days off
Should make their task harder
Don't really want to bet a horse
From a tough race in the Eider

Still under consideration

CHIRICO VALLIS 25/1

THE WOLF 12/1

ASK A HONEY BEE 20/1

ENRILO 14/1

HISTORY OF FASHION 14/1

Not a final shortlist
Some have breeding issues
Just a few of the main horses
Who survive the worst angles
But not all are certain to run

  
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