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Today's Message

 
Start of a new week

5 Previews

All 5 in Ireland

Not timed today very well 
Now 7 message in a row
Working slower than usual
Bit of fatigue creeping in

May decide to drop a day 
Much as I said I wouldn't
Perhaps have a short day
Where I free some time up
For some ante post work

Grand Sefton at Weekend

November Handicap  

Paddy Power Gold Cup
Also on the priority list

Will see how things go



Today's message starts 
With two short priced bets

Expecting at least 1 to win
But too short to commit to

Then we have 3 handicaps
All in large fields at Galway 
So we will need some luck

Be lucky to get one winner
But I think this is my best




Today's Best Bet
  

Galway 1.10 

STARTING MONDAY 6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5








Preview Selections


Galway 12.40
Boogie Woogie 5/6-1/1
Win Bet

Wexford 1.00
Imagine 10/11
Win Bet

Galway 1.10 
Starting Monday 6/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5

Galway 1.40 
Malacanne 6/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Galway 2.50
Sadiqaa 8/1 
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5





Underneath The Message 


Galway 1.10 

£20 Win Bet Starting Monday 6/1

£3 Win Bet  Excuzio Joe 7/1








Yesterday's Summary   
  
Sunday had good and bad
Had 2 winners and 4 losers
Whatever it was or wasn't
I read that message nicely
The horses I liked the best
Were our only two winners  
Best bet of the day won too
At generous starting prices 
Came out as a 4/1 winner
Deeply Superficial won well
She is a Cheltenham horse  
Fancied in the Mares Novice
Chef De Troupe won easily
Got plenty wrong on the day
But the stronger bets did win







PROFILES & PREVIEWS  


Galway 12.40

4/5 Boogie Woogie, 11/8 Astar, 10/1 La Tulipe Noire
16/1 Al Sayah, Fanaigi Linn, 20/1 Paris Secret
25/1 Fancy Nancy, 50/1 Law Lady, 100/1 Dar Og
100/1  Ruler Of The River.

2yo Fillies Maiden 8f

Could be a match

BOOGIE WOOGIE 
ASTAR

BOOGIE WOOGIE 
Twice raced from Aiden
May have the upper hand 
Has more momentum

ASTAR is her main danger
But she has a tougher draw
Much inferior stable as well
Comes from a weaker race

Selection

BOOGIE WOOGIE 5/6-1/1

Win Bet

 




Wexford 1.00

6/4 Innatendue, 15/8 Imagine, 11/2 Ages Of Man
10/1 Spillane's Tower, 12/1 Atimetodream, 14/1 Ney
20/1 Splashing Out, 25/1 Low Mileage, True Artist
33/1 Monty's Way, 50/1 Sunwalk, 66/1 Too Easy Mate
100/1 Maud Ban, Spring Street.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

4 year olds only

Clear choice in this race

IMAGINE from Gordon Elliott 
Well regarded won a bumper

INNATENDUE her main rival 
Does have more experience
But is a filly with 6 months off
 
Go back to 2009

4yo hurdle races
7 or more runners
Any distance
Any time of year

Female horses
Over 2 career runs
Absent over 75 days
Have a poor 1-220 record
The only winner to do this
Buildmeupbuttercup in 2018
With 7 runs from WP Mullins
INNATENDUE has this profile

Whilst 1-220 sounds horrific
The majority were not fancied
But some were and the statistic
Does cover every similar race

AGES OF MAN could go well
But comes here after a fall
Prefer the favourite's chance

Selection

IMAGINE 10/11

Win Bet








Galway 1.10

9/2 Dazzling Spirit, 5/1 Soilse, 7/1 Excuzio Joe
8/1 Starting Monday, 10/1 Just Jacob, San Aer
10/1 Stormy Jenn, 12/1 Clear Quartz, Fools Glory
12/1 High Altitude, Independent Expert, Malayan
12/1 Turbulence, 16/1 Kodiac Prince, 20/1 Morning Soldier
20/1 Out On Friday, 33/1 Takeachancejimmy.

8f Handicap


Trying to break this down

Some of these look short of runs

MALAYAN has 1 run in 167 days

MORNING SOLDIER another 3yo
Has raced just one in months too
 
HIGH ALTITUDE is 8 years old
He has raced once in 74 days
I'd want more for an 8 year old

Some did not do enough recently
TAKEACHANCE JIMMY is one
KODIAC PRINCE well beat 5 days ago
OUT ON FRIDAY a similar problem
CLEAR QUARTZ has two flops in a row

SOILSE is a 4yo filly
Fit in form and running well
But she is going up in distance
Put up 13lbs for getting beaten
And she only has 7 career runs

DAZZLING SPIRIT is a filly
Well backed and on a hat trick
There are factors against her
She has gone up another 10lbs
She is a filly up in distance too
And stall 16 looks quite nasty

Galway
8f Handicaps
Since 2011
Horses under 5
More than 10 runs
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Have a poor 1-87 record 
DAZZLING SPIRIT fails this  

JUST JACOB also fails this
Not for me drawn in stall 17
Coming from hurdles as well

TURBULANCE is a 5 year old
He's only ran twice in a year
INDEPENDENT ESCORT a filly
Has plenty to prove up in distance

FOOLS GLORY is a 3yo filly
Beat her own age group last time
She was 33/1 now up in weights

STORMY JENN is an older mare
Career best last time out winning
But has been raised 12lbs for that
It was only a 0-68 class handicap
Both her wins were in lower grades
Drawn 14 with a 7lbs claimer too
This step up in class is a concern

SAN AER is a 4yo up in distance
Has a chance with a recent run
But would rather not have a 4yo
Who is exposed going up in trip

Go back to 2009
Galway Handicaps
Run over 1m 3f or less
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4 or older
Carrying 9st 12lbs or more
Absent more than 5 days
Have a poor 1-55 record
SAN AER fails this as well
TURBULENCE also fails it
CLEAR CHOICE fails this too



Shortlist

EXCUZIO JOE is an older mare
Topweight facing a 0-77 handicap
Her run here 3 races ago was fine
That came in a classier handicap
She has had draw excuses since
Had the widest draw at Listowel
The widest draw at Leopardstown
We opposed her in both handicaps

STARTING MONDAY is a 5yo
He was 4th in this race last year
He is 4lbs lower in the handicap
He is carrying 4lbs less weight
He's had an extra prep race too
And chances are in last years race
He went off too quickly from the front

 
Selection
 
STARTING MONDAY 6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Galway 1.40

11/2 Summer Snow, 6/1 Duke Of Leggagh
6/1 Samantha Maguire, 7/1 Rhythm King, 8/1 Malacanne
8/1 Tic Tac Toe, 10/1 Sarlaochra, 10/1 The Snapper
12/1 Coolcalmncollected, On The Money, 14/1 Inthepoorhouse
16/1 Drop The Dip, Glyde Ranger, 16/1 Selection Bias
20/1 Saoibh, 25/1 Allesnick.

7f Nursery

SUMMER SNOW is a filly
She has already had 6 runs
Yet still only rated low on 63
Numbers are not progressive
She could well be vulnerable 
And her pedigree is a concern
This is stiffer than her last run
She is no certainty to get home

Horses sired by El Kabeir
Running over 7f or more
On soft or heavy ground
Have a 0-25 record so far
SUMMER SNOW fails this

Given a field as big as this
I would rather oppose those
Who have raced just 3 times

Opposing these horses
Who just look a bit too raw
DROP THE DIP
INTHEPOORHOUSE
SAMANTHA MAGUIRE
THE SNAPPER
SELECTION BIAS
SARLAOCHRA
COOLCALMCOLLECTED

Against the horses
Who look out of their depth
Low scorers included in that

RHYTHM KING has a chance
But rejected drawn in stall 16

DUKE OF LEGGAGH a gelding
Decided not to shortlist him 
His figures are only modest 
Having had as many as 7 runs
He is still only 15th in weights

TIC TAC TOE has a chance
But has to prove his stamina
He is going up over 1f in trip
Pretty exposed now as well
First run for a new stable too

MALACANNE
 
Shaping well after 4 runs
Felt he had most to offer

Selection

MALACANNE 6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

 
Galway 2.50

7/2 Speckled Meadow, 7/1 Wee Pablo
15/2 Angel's Trumpet, 8/1Fastman, 10/1 Sadiqaa
11/1 Pimstrel, 12/1 Ginsburg, 12/1 Petticoat Rule
12/1 Purple Gown, Sevenal, 16/1 Higher Kingdom
16/1 Improving, 20/1 No Patience, 25/1 Sheila
33/1 Deluca Chop, 50/1 Noble Glory.

7f Handicap

SPECKLED MEADOW a 5yo
Has a good recent run over 10f
But this is a radical 3f drop down
Could not risk him doing that
DELUCA CHOP does the same

WEE PABLO in contrast
Goes up 1.5f in distance here
Small horse in a very big field
Drawn 16 will do very well to win

Go back to 2011
Galway 7f Handicap
No horses aged 5 or more
Won any race drawn 15 or higher
All 20 that tried were beaten
WEE PABLO fails this angle
HIGHER KINGDOM does too

Plenty with recent races
Did not do enough last time
SHEILA was well beaten recently
IMPROVING the same problem
NOBLE GLORY also beaten too far
None of the reserves appeal at all

PETTICOAT RULE an older mare
Faces 80 days off on heavy ground
NO PATIENCE has a nasty draw

GINSBURG is only a cheap filly
Trainer has never had a winner
Jockey has never had a winner
PIMSTREL well beaten last time
Looks underraced for a 6yo mare

ANGEL'S TRUMPET is a mare
Beaten 6 + lengths 5 days ago
Not convinced that was enough
As it was in a lower grade race

FASTMAN has a chance
But he is not the best age (6yo)
And 10st 2lbs is a nasty weight

Go back to 2009
Galway
7f Handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses with 9st 12lbs or more
Absent more than 5 days
Have a 0-33 record in them
The following all fail this

FASTMAN
HIGHER KINGDOM
PETTICOAT RULE

Go back to 2009
Galway Handicaps
Run over 1m 3f or less
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4 or older
Carrying 9st 12lbs or more
Absent more than 5 days
Have a poor 1-55 record
The same 3 horses fail this

SEVENAL has a chance
Not shortlisted but respected

PURPLE GOWN is a 3yo filly
Handicapped to go close
But do we want a young filly 
With just 1 run in 98 days
Having never won in 17 races
 
SADIQAA has a good chance
Has handled heavy ground
Well treated and well drawn

Selection

SADIQAA 8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

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