Merry Christmas everybody

Enjoy the weekend 

Before Boxing day Racing



With no racing in Britain today
A rare quiet Saturday for me

Said I would send a message
Promised an account bet too

That account bet

Does not need to be given yet
But I can tell you the selection


Monday 26th

Kempton 3.05

BALCO COASTAL 9/2-4/1



Will probably give this on the day
Having been 1 of the 10 declared

Some 18mm of rain hit Kempton
The ground has now gone soft
Balco Coastal was heavily backed 
The 11/2 early went quickly to 9/2
Looks like he will be about 4/1-9/2
But some of the offices are shorter
They will fall back in line tomorrow
Now there is true price discovery
So no need to give this out today

Mentioned this horse a few times

November 25th I opposed him

Predicted Boxing day his target

Not long now to see if I am right
I will stake him if nothing is better
Not sure yet if win or each way





The Trilogy

  
Monday 26th
Kempton 3.05
Novice Handicap Chase 

Tuesday 27th 
Leopardstown 3.00
Paddy Power Chase
 
Tuesday 27th 
Chepstow 2.50 
Welsh Grand National


These are the main races
I have targeted at Christmas
Want to briefly discuss them

Monday 26th

Kempton 3.05

9/2 Balco Coastal, 9/2 Solo
9/2 West Cork 11/2 Don Alvaro, 13/2 Panic Attack
9/1 Galore Desassences 12/1 Hudson De Grugy
12/1 Lord Baddesley, 14/1 Arizona Cardinal
14/1 Art Approval.


BALCO COASTAL runs first

Covered him he is my choice

Preview has now been finished
What does worry me about this
Good chasing avoiding mistakes
Important for every runner in this
Just takes one mistake to spoil it

Disappointed he was well backed 
Felt that finding him in November
It would have been well deserved
To have got the best prices on it

Not decided about staking here
So happy to deal with it Monday

Expecting him to be a staked bet
Unless I find something far better





Tuesday 27th 

Leopardstown 3.00

Paddy Power Chase

 6/1 Panda Boy, 7/1 Ain't That A Shame, 15/2 Donkey Years
8/1 Mr Incredible, 10/1 Ciel De Neige, 11/1 Farceur Du Large
14/1 Death Duty, 16/1 Captain Kangaroo, 18/1 Egality Mans
18/1 Gallant John Joe, Recite A Prayer, 20/1 Born By The Sea
20/1 Carefully Selected, 20/1 Gabbys Cross, 22/1 Diol Ker
25/1 Ballyshannon Rose, Defi Bleu, Enjoy D'allen, Take All
25/1 Walking On Glass, 28/1 A Wave Of The Sea, Fighter Allen
28/1 Foxy Jacks, 33/1 Battleoverdoyen, 33/1 Stones And Roses
40/1 Real Steel, 50/1 Early Doors, Western Zara.


My main selection 

Did not get declared 
 
Frontal Assault has withdrawn

So this race from the trilogy

Now feels like the hardest one

Likely to downgrade this race
Unlikely to be any staked bet

PANDA BOY fails generic stats
But despite that could still win it
But he is not the selection here

DONKEY YEARS for some time
Looked like he was going to be
But I found a last minute problem
That has put me off him a little bit

There are a few horses

Who were initially discounted

Who after a major rethink here

Could end up on the staking plan

Most likely to do that right now


CIEL DE NEIGE 16/1

TAKE ALL 25/1

MY INCREDIBLE 10/1

This is a surprising shortlist
But my number 1 did not run
And finding some late angles
Forced me into reconsidering

There won't be a staked bet
This now looks the weakest
From the three target races





Chepstow 2.50

Welsh Grand National

5/1 Quick Wave, 8/1 The Big Dog, 8/1 The Galloping Bear
8/1 Ask Me Early, 12/1 Pats Fancy, 14/1 Threeunderthrufive
16/1 The Big Breakaway, 16/1 Punitive, 16/1 Escaria Ten
16/1 Lord Du Mesnil, 25/1 Fortescue, 25/1 Musical Slave
25/1 Wayfinder, 25/1 Truckers Lodge, 25/1 Movethechains
33/1 Fantastikas, 33/1 Wouldubewell, 33/1 The Two Amigos
40/1 Grumpy Charley, 50/1 Time To Get Up, 66/1 Cyclop
66/1 Regina Dracones, 80/1 Nearly Perfect, 100/1 Gats And Co
100/1 Chameron, 100/1 D'jango



Did this preview yesterday

Carpet bombed it with angles

Just kept throwing stats at it

To find out which of the runners

Came out damaged or unscathed
 
Maybe the most significant thing

This looks a substandard renewal

Official ratings do suggest this

So we have a weak renewal

On ground quicker than normal

Which may be the defining factor

THE BIG DOG

Clearly fancied in the betting
But trying to land a hat trick
Running off a mark of 153
Has a tough task statistically 

THE BIG BREAKAWAY

My angles do not like him
Don't feel the same myself
I think he is shortlistable
Helped by a weak renewal

But the angles are persuasive
He just keeps coming up short 
One example of a stat he fails

No horse aged 7
Has won with 11st 6lbs or more
Since as far back as 1946 in this  
Stearsby won as a 7yo with 11st 5lbs
But that was 36 years ago in 1986
And none carried more since 1946
THE BIG BREAKAWAY has 11st 9lbs
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE 11st 12lbs


THE GALLOPING BEAR

Very inexperienced for a 9yo
My angles do not like him
Breeding stats not encouraging
Do not see enough about him
To overrule the case against him
  

PATS FANCY

My statistics say no
Tried to argue a better case
He has superficial positives
But his trainer made a remark
That put me off him quite a bit
Don't feel he will be on staking

 
QUICK WAVE

Looks a sensible saver to me

But my statistics are critical of her

Fails lots of little angles in this
   

PUNITIVE

Breeding stats are cold
The angles I have against him
Are not particularly compelling
He has had 4 runs in 59 days
Is that a major disadvantage 
Could it also be his advantage ?
Found him very hard to judge

ASK ME EARLY is a positive
Will make shortlist and staking

Not to say his profile is solid
There are concerns about him
But ticks more boxes than most
Could end up as final selection

But could change my mind too
Find something to change that


One of the problems we have

Because this is a weak renewal
 
On ground thats reasonable

It may suit classier horses ?

Some who are statistically weak
But whose chances can improve
Because of a substandard field


The above races


Are the 3 races I targeted

Big previews in all of these

But will cover other races

And with over 2 days to go

Things could violently change


In terms of the next bet

BALCO COASTAL should be one

But there was no need to go today

After ground and price changes


Next Message Boxing Day