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Today's Best Bet
  
Doncaster 1.25

CATHY COME HOME 6/1-13/2-7/1

Each Way




Preview Selections

Doncaster 1.25
Cathy Come Home 6/1-13/2-7/1
Each Way

Doncaster 2.00 
£5.00 Win Bet  Alpha Capture 9/1-10/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Cold Case10/11- 4/5 
 
Epsom 2.15
£8.00 Win Bet Cherry Cola 10/1-11/1
£1.00 Win Bet  Militry Decoration 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Napper Tandy 7/1-8/1

Doncaster 2.35
£5.00 Win Bet Novakai 8/1 
£5.00 Win Dance In The Grass 1/1-11/10

Doncaster 3.10
Yesyes 4/1
Each Way

Laytown 6.25
Jaafel 6/1-7/1
Each Way





Today's Message 
 
Plenty of rain about today
Looking to repeat yesterday
Aiming for a best bet winner
Hope other races hold up

Liked yesterdays message
Not so keen on todays though

Turned out a reactive message
Chopping and changing races
Reacting to non runners/prices
This has been a nuisance to do  

It does have it's good points

Happy with the best bet

Happy with my favourite bet


 
My favourite Bet

Laytown 6.25

JAAFEL 6/1-7/1

Each Way




Jaafel in my opinion

Looks a slightly better bet
Than the official best bet

But how can I stake this

Irish evening race 
It is a maiden as well
Very weak market
And It is on the beach !!



So staying with Doncaster





Today's Best Bet 

Doncaster 1.25

CATHY COME HOME 7/1

Each Way










Underneath The Message 


Doncaster 1.25
Cathy Come Home 7/1
£20 Win 



Epsom 2.15
£8.00 Cherry Cola 10/1-11/1
£1.00 Militry Decoration 9/1
£1.00 Napper Tandy 7/1-8/1

Will probably follow staking
And just have £10 interest bet



Not betting in the 2.35pm
Non runner may affect draw stat



Not betting in the 3.10pm
The negative is now the selection
Changed position so much in this
Almost swallowed my own tongue




Laytown 6.25  

Jaafel 7/1

£30 Win Bet








Yesterday's Summary  
 
Found 2 winners in 6 previews
But got the main decisions right
BOUNCE THE BLUES won well
Looked beat but stormed through
Exciting rewarding best bet win
But it was weak in places too
Right to suspect In some races
I had strolled off the right track
JUST FINE the disappointment
But overall we did finish in profit
The best bet thankfully winning







PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Doncaster 1.25

7/2 Bonny Angel, 5/1 Misty Blues
7/1 Cathy Come Home, Lily In The Jungle
15/2 Hi Clare, 8/1 Coco Jamboo, 9/1 Palm Lily
10/1 Speriamo, 12/1 Alexa's Princess
12/1 Crime Fiction


6f Fillies Nursery
 
Last years winner
Was the first with just 2 runs

PALM LILY tried to be the second
There is a subtle difference though
Last years winner dropped in trip

Horses from 6f or shorter
Beaten over 2 lengths last time
Have a 0-59 record in this race  
PALM LILY has this 0-59 profile

CATHY COME HOME shares it

COCO JAMBOO does as well
She has the worst drawn in 10
 
Go back to 2006 
Doncaster
Every 6f race
Under 11 runners 
Horses drawn 10
Have a 0-49 record
COCO JAMBOO fails this
 
Every past winner
Had between 2 and 6 runs
Horses with more are 0-27
LILY IN THE JUNGLE has 10 runs
Could well be too exposed here

ALEXA'S PRINCESS is out
No winners came from Class 6
She is going up 4 grades in class

CRIME FICTOR won at Redcar
This extended 6f may be too far
She would not be first choice
SPERIAMO has 81 days off
Longest absent winner 49 days
She has plenty to prove in this 
HI CLARE has questions too
Just beaten in a Class 5 nursery 

Shortlist

CATHY COME HOME
BONNY ANGEL
MISTY BLUES

Horses who last time out
Won a nursery are just 1-22

Those from Class 3 or lower 0-20
Those with under 6 runs 0-15

BONNY ANGEL fails both angles
Not a close match to a winner
  
MISTY BLUES is shortlisted
Started 50/1 ay York last time 

In that same nursery at York

CATHY COME HOME was 13/2
Beaten 5 lengths in that Nursery
Means she failed an earlier stat
Beaten further than ideal there
But 5 lengths seems forgivable

She did not have luck in running
She was in a big field of 18 horses
When a filly with only 2 past runs
Took on males with a big weight
She can be upgraded on that run

Connections have always said
She is smart with plenty of ability
CATHY COME HOME is rated 91
She only has a 0-83 field to beat


Selection

CATHY COME HOME 6/1-7/1

Each Way







Doncaster 2.00

5/2 Cold Case, 4/1 Magical Sunset, 7/1 Alpha Capture
15/2 Holguin, 8/1 Legend Of Xanadu, 9/1 Eminency
11/1 Hectic, 14/1 Galeron, 16/1 True Statesman
20/1 Swift Asset, 22/1 Waiting All Night, 28/1 Knebworth
50/1 Once More For Luck, Pjanoo, 100/1 Hiatus.
 
2yo Sales race

COLD CASE is the class horse
But gives weight to several here
Should go close but will be tested

The outsiders offer little 
SWISS ASSET included from 5f 
TRUE STATESMAN is not safe
Coming from the outside draw

Horses with only 2 career runs
Have a 0-39 record in this race

Horses with under 4 races
Have a 1-55 record with this

ALPHA CAPITAL has 2 runs
That has not been succesfull
But comes from the best stable

EMINENCY has the same issue
HECTIC also has just 2 races

MAGICAL SUNSET has 1 run
Least experienced horse in it
The 2019 winner had just 1 run
He was the only one that did
He won the race from stall 1
MAGICAL SUNSET is drawn 11
That may be difficult for him

Not enough to rule him out
Not from such a serious stable
Having said that it's interesting
In the 15 previous renewals
Richard Hannon is 0-46 in the
Not been a great race for him

GALERON feels quite resistible

WAITING ALL NIGHT rated 96
Does look interesting off 8st 8lbs
But was well beaten last time out
Horses beaten over 10 lengths
On their last runs are 0-25 in this
He was only 66/1 in the Gimcrack
No previous winners of this race
Started more than 20/1 last time

Every past winner of this race
Ran within the previous 54 days
HOLGUIN has 86 days absence
Could be a big ask from stall 1
And was a 40/1 chance last time
No previous winners of this race
Started more than 20/1 last time

5 of the previous 7 winners

8 of the last 13 winners

Ran at the York Ebor meeting
Both of these shortlisted do

COLD CASE 
LEGEND OF XANADU


LEGEND OF XANADU 

Drifting in the market
Not sure why though
But radically drifting

When you factor in his drift
MAGICAL SUNSET's inexperience
HOLGUIN's absence
The horses who last time out
Started unfancied at huge prices

It may finally be the year
That a twice raced horse wins

ALPHA CAPTURE could be it
Do not want to commit fully 

So I think the wisest strategy
Go Win bet with a  place bet

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet ALPHA CAPTURE 9/1-10/1

£5.00 Place Bet COLD CASE 10/11- 4/5 







Epsom 2.15

7/2 Derry Lad, 9/2 Thibault, 8/1 Militry Decoration
8/1 Napper Tandy, 12/1 Enthused 12/1 King's Castle
14/1 Bad Company, Duesenberg 14/1 Niblawi
16/1 Vissani, 20/1 Cherry Cola 25/1 Runrized.

12f Handicap

DERRY LAD has 54 days off
Sired by Epaulette on soft ground
Without a run in several weeks
Not convinced he will get home
Not conclusive could be wrong
But felt there were safer options

MILITARY DECORATION similar
She shares the same sire too
But passing him with recent run

Horses with 11st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-14 record in this race
The following horses fail this

ENTHUSED
BAD COMPANY

ENTHUSED has plenty of weight 
When you factor in 39 days off

BAD COMPANY flopped last time
But happy to forgive him that run

It was an Apprentice race
He was drawn 16/16 at Sandown
Yet set the pace for a fair way
But he does fail the weight stat
He is going up 2f in distance
He is unproven over this trip
And his mother was a 5f-6f horse
Not convinced he will stay here

VISSANI isn't doing enough

RUNRIZED is underraced as a 7yo

NIBLAWI has been off too long

THIBAULT is also short of races
He is 9 years old
Raced just once in 123 days

KINGS CASTLE has an absence
Could have problems from stall 1
DUESENBERG has been hurdling

NAPPER TANDY is a positive
Ran badly last time it is a worry
But he may have bounced there
  
CHERRY COLA on a good day
Could easily win a race like this
But not sure if this a good day

Dutching this race

Selection
 
£8.00 Win Bet CHERRY COLA 10/1-11/1

£1.00 Win Bet MILITRY DECORATION 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet NAPPER TANDY 7/1-8/1







Doncaster 2.35

11/10 Dance In The Grass, 4/1 Frankness
8/1 Ferrari Queen, 9/1 Novakai,  12/1 Mottisfont
16/1 Cell Sa Beela, 25/1 Perfect Prophet
28/1 Dubai Jemila, 50/1 Polly Pott.

May Hill Stakes

2yo Group 2 for fillies (8f)

Felt these issues were important

DANCE IN THE GRASS rated 105
Has a big numerical advantage here
But it's also why she is a short price

This advantage suggests to me
We should buy her out of the race

There are 3 main alternatives


FRANKNESS

Going to oppose her
As she is drawn 10-10

Go back 22 years to 2000

Doncaster 
Every 8f race
Under 11 runners
Horses drawn 10
Have a 0-48 record
FRANKNESS fails this

FERRARI QUEEN is an option
The stablemate of the favourite
Do we want a Mark Johnston
Second string in a Group race ?

NOVAKAI is the preference
And the second half of the bet

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet NOVAKAI 8/1

£5.00 Win DANCE IN THE GRASS 1/1-11/10







Doncaster 3.10

 6/4 Eshaada, 100/30 Yesyes, 5/1 Believe In Love
7/1 Urban Artist, 11/1 Mimikyu, 14/1 River Of Stars
16/1 Glenartney, 33/1 Nell Quickly.

Park Hill

Fillies Group 2 over 1m 6f

YESYES was 3rd in this last year
Good effort she was inexperienced
But she had 4 warm up runs in 2021
This year she has had just the 1 run
She is like the 2012 winner of this
So I am not calling her a negative 
But just 1 run this year is not ideal
 
Since the 2001 renewal
Horses running within 20 days
Have a 0-34 record in this race
Having a recent run is a concern
Maybe this race is an afterthought
GLENARTNEY fails this angle
RIVER OF STARS does as well

BELIEVE IN LOVE is a 5yo
He ran in this as a 3 year old
Favourite there but a negative
Much stronger and established
She comes here 2nd top rated
Her problem is 19 career starts
She is on the exposed side

Past winners
Had the following races

3 12 10 7 8 5 6 12 18 7 15 7
16 19 16 8 6 10 10 10 8 9 8

BELIEVE IN LOVE has 19 runs
We have had a winner with 19
Had 6 winners with 15-19 races
But none of the exposed winners
With more than 11 career starts
Were absent more than 26 days
BELIEVE IN LOVE has 68 days

ESHADA beat her last time out
She is 7lbs + clear on ratings
And a previous group 1 winner 
She does offer some concerns
She has 68 days off the track
Will that impact on her stamina
Her sire has winners over 1m 6f +
But non were in listed/group races

May be wrong
But going to avoid the favourite

That tells me
YESYES has a better chance
Than her profile suggests she does
She comes from a hot trial race

Horses from the Lily Langtry
Have won this 5 times since 2007

YESYES comes from this race
URBAN ARTIST comes from there

URBAN ARTIST is a 7 year old
None of the previous 24 winners
Were aged 6 or more never mind 7
But few tried (4) none were fancied

The 4 year olds doing this
Have a 4-5 record in this race
YESYES is the best age of the pair
And whilst 1 run this year is a worry
The 2012 winner had that profile

I need some cover
Taking on the Group 1 favourite
Ended up where I never thought
I would go at the start of the race

Selection

YESYES 4/1

Each Way






Laytown 6.25

5/2 True Artist, 7/2 Yester, 9/2 Coeur D'or
6/1 The Penny, 13/2 I Know I Can, 7/1 Jaafel
7/1 Sweeping Statement, 7/1 Two Two Time
66/1 Jinglers Bridge, Winning Mischief.

7f Maiden

Not hard to find weak profile
Some strange ones as well

COEIR D'OR the strangest
Coming down from 12f to 7f
Win lose or draw happy to avoid

TRUE ARTIST another strange one
Two runs ago she completely flopped
Sweating at start
Reluctant to load
Almost refused to race
Left many lengths at the start

Not prepared to forgive her that
As last time she refused to race

TWO TWO TIME a 4yo filly
Comes here with 379 days off

THE PENNY has a chance
But she is up in distance here
Started 50/1 50/1 50/1 in 3 runs
Hardly inspires confidence in her
 
SWEEPING STATEMENT a 4yo
Has to be seen as a positive here
Given she has decent numbers
And many others are negatives
But she was sold cheaply recently
YESTER also sold cheaply in July

JAAFEL drops down 2.5 furlongs
Has the ability if he copes with it
Dug a bit deeper into recent form
He's had some good excuses
Drawn 16 last time one of those
Think he is underestimated here

Option 1

£7.00 Win Bet JAAFEL 7/1
£1.50 Win Bet SWEEPING STATEMENT 7/1
£1.50 Win Bet I KNOW I CAN 7/1

I prefer Option 2


Selection

JAAFEL 7/1

Each Way






 
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  


Had a piece prepared

About recent account bets

But decided not to send it

Pull it for another day soon

Felt a bit too controversial

But will cover the issue soon




Saturday

Doncaster 3.30

St Leger Stakes

10/11 New London, 11/2 Eldar Eldarov
7/1 Hoo Ya Mal 8/1 Haskoy, 12/1 Zechariah
14/1 French Claim, 20/1 Emily Dickinson
25/1 Bluegrass, 25/1 Giavellotto
100/1 El Habeeb, 200/1 Lizzie Jean



Saturday's Classic

11 horses left in the last classic

Final Declarations very shortly

Doubt I will have a strong view
Probably cover this on the day 
Ground reportedly turning soft 

Before the market suspended

NEW LONDON was out to 2.4 
Still odds on with bookmakers 
But was looking weak on betfair

I have no stamina concerns
No worries about the ground
I can argue against his rivals
Far easier than I can do him
Without knowing the draw yet
I see him as most likely winner

NEW LONDON  

Any price at odds against
Does tempt me as a £5 saver 
This buys him out of the race
With the chance of upgrading
Placing the remaining stakes
Either on him or an alternative

Perhaps a £4 Win Saver 5/4
Returns us £9.60 if he wins
And buys him out of the race
 
Think that is good business
Assuming he doesn't pull out

£5 Saver Bet suggested


 
 
Saturday

September 24th

Cambridgeshire Handicap
 
4/1 Mujtaba 10/1 Protagonist 12/1 Dual Identity
14/1 Savvy Victory 14/1 Eilean Dubh 16/1 Glam de Vega
16/1 Kitsune Power 16/1 Montassib 16/1 Noble Dynasty
16/1 Ajero 20/1 Amortentia 20/1 Good Heavens
20/1 Jimi Hendrix 20/1 Legend of Dubai 20/1 Migdam
20/1 Lord Protector 20/1 Moktasaab 20/1 Okeechobee
20/1 Operating 20/1 Peter The Great 20/1 Secret Box
20/1 Shining Blue 20/1 Sonny Liston 20/1 Special Envoy
20/1 Totally Charming 20/1 Wanees 20/1 Al Marmar
20/1 Ziggy  25/1 Atrium 25/1 Awaal  25/1 Bashosh
25/1 Bell Rock 25/1 Bolthole 25/1 Dhahabi
25/1 Electrical Storm 25/1 First View 25/1 Janoobi
25/1 Saga 25/1 Spirit Dancer 25/1 Tyrrhenian Sea
25/1 Devoted Poet 33/1


MUJTABA

He hacked up yesterday 
Impressive now 4/1 favourite 

Planning to cover this soon 
Just a reflection on yesterday

If he does run at Newmarket
With 1 run in the last 141 days
He could well be on the bounce 

I won't be holding it against him
His profile is like the 2005 winner
Who also ran in yesterdays trial

Profile wise he may end up fine
It depends partly on his weight
How far will the weights will rise 
The Draw will be important too
And it should also be pointed out
His trainer has the 2nd favourite


11 of the last 12 winners

Shared this basic profile

Male Horses
Aged 3-4-5-6-7
Raced within 100 days
8st 4lbs to 9st 9lbs
Between 5 and 26 runs
Coming from 8f to 10f
Beaten under 11 lengths
Rated between 87-107
Coming from Class 3 + 

MUJTABA does fit this 





Ante Post Statistics

Saturday

Doncaster 1.45pm

13/2 Whenthedealinsdone 10/1 Chipstead 
10/1 Juan Les Pins 10/1 Tanmawwy 12/1 Bergerac
14/1 Ancient Times 14/1 Burning Cash
14/1 Makanah 14/1 Dakota Gold 14/1 Intrinsic Bond
14/1 Night On Earth 16/1 Dusky Lord  16/1 Ghathanfar
16/1 Isle Of Lismore 16/1 Lequinto 16/1 Lord Riddiford
20/1 Hyperfocus 20/1 Nomadic Empire 20/1 Runninwild
20/1 Recall The Show 20/1 Justanotherbottle 
20/1 Seven Brothers  22/1 Call Me Ginger 25/1 Digital
25/1 Count D'orsay 25/1  Faustus 25/1 Good Earth 
25/1 Only Spoofing 25/1 Raatea 25/1 Stone Of Destiny
28/1 Sunday Sovereign 33/1 Ava Go Joe 33/1 Method 
33/1 Beyond Equal  33/1 Project Dante 33/1 Motagally 
33/1 Significantly 33/1 Total Commitment 33/1 Tyger Bay
40/1 Treacherous 40/1 Sound Reason 50/1 Zargun
50/1 Atalanta's Boy


Portland Handicap

Race Statistics

The last 19 winners
Had the following draws

5 18 14 18 22 12 10 15 12 21 
15 16 18 21 5 5 13 15 20 9 8

Avoid horses drawn 1-2-3-4
The last 18 years they are 0-88

Since 2002
Every Portland winner
Ran within the previous 46 days

3 year olds
Have a 1-54 record since 2001
That sole winner was in 2019

4 year olds

Won 5 races since 2002
Had the following career runs
13 9 7 17 18 
Had the following runs that year 
5 4 3 6 9 
Had the following absences
24 24 42 24 18 days
Won from the following ratings 
102 95 100 96 100
Won from the following draws
5 12 5 12 14

4yo's winning last time are 0-24
4yo's with over 18 runs are 0-38
All came from Class 2 handicaps
Those from lower grades 0-22

5 year olds

Won 9 races since 2002
Had the following career runs
26 29 30 24 19 6 8 20 31 
Had the following runs that year 
5 8 6 6 3 5 5 4 8 
Had the following absences
20 46 14 19 28 7 35 28 15 days
Won from the following ratings 
93 99 101 97 97 96 100 95
Won from the following draws
18 18 22 14 20 19 6 17 14

6 year olds

Have a 0-78 record since 1997

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 1-181 record since 1997

Since 2005 they are 1-106

Horses aged 6+ from 5f races
Absent over 3 days are 0-78

Fillies have a 1-62 record
The winner a 4yo filly in 2013

Lighter weights struggle
Horses with 8st 8lbs or less
Have a 0-52 record since 2002
  
Avoid 1-2 runs that season
Horses from Pattern races 1-44
That winner ran 3 days before

No winners came from 7f or 8f
Horses just beaten12+ Lengths  
Have not won this in decades
Colts are 0-19 in recent years
 
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