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Today's Racing


5 Previews

Mainly the all weather 
Not exactly fine dining
More bread and dripping

On the account tomorrow
Race on sunday I also like

Taken a while to get going
But now fully up to speed
Makes sense to keep going
Not take a day off next week
That is the immediate plan

Prioritising this weekend
National Hunt tomorrow
Better quality racing too
And targeting a main bet



Plan Today

No staked bet



One bet to mention



Lingfield 2.15

£5.00 Win Bet MARNIE JAMES 6/1-13/2

£5.00 Win Bet TONE THE BARONE 10/11-1/1



This message

Would have been on time at 10am

But in the 7 minutes it took to Edit

Marnie James drifted from 5/1 to 9/1

That is an obvious concern

Took some extra thought

But going to stay with the bet

Because it is not staked anyway

But it is a good example

How markets around 10am

Can compromise or kill bets

Just as the message is due

Interesting to see how he runs

More focussed on a Saturday bet







Preview Selections

Wetherby 12.50
Kayfast Warrior 11/10-5/4
Win Bet 

Lingfield 1.05
£5.00 Win Bet He's Our Star 7/1
£5.00 Place Bet Porfin 10/11 

Lingfield 2.15
£5.00 Win Bet Marnie James 6/1
£5.00 Win Bet Tone The Barone 10/11-1/1

Wolverhampton 4.00
£8.50 Win Bet Inevitable Outcome 4/1-7/2
£1.50 Win Bet Alcazan 6/1

Dundalk 5.45 
£5.00 Win Bet Cheval Blanc 11/2
£5.00 Win Moshammer 6/45





Yesterday's Review  
  
Mediocre content overall
Ended up with 6 previews
Getting 2 winners 4 losers
The last race helped a lot
Cleared up all the damage
Only two choices of a bet
Lesssaidthebetter was one
Disappointed with his finish
Sen Ding my preference
But I wanted him each way
No surprise he finished 2nd
Only beaten by a debutant
Why I wanted him each way
Not practical for a main bet
The market was too flimsy
Got enough to avoid a flop
Not much in it by the finish





PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Wetherby 12.50

11/10 Kayfast Warrior, 15/8 Stand Staunch
9/1 Tommaso, 10/1 Raqisa, 12/1 Bonne Vitesse
20/1 Royle Steel, 66/1 Keep The Faith

4yo Hurdle

Not much strength in depth
ROYLE STEEL from a bumper
Lacks the experience of others

Go back to 2009

January to August
4yo Hurdle races
Open to both sexes
Fillies in these races
Absent over 75 days
Have a 1-204 record
Over 200 fillies tried
Yet only 1 managed it

BONNE VITESSE fails this
RAQUSA also fails this too

TOMMASO has 2 hurdle runs
Hasn't shown nearly enough

The should be a math
Between the market leaders

STAND STAUCH could win
Best numbers by some way
But he has 97 days absence
Ran his profile in similar races
Found 3 similar winners to him
Passed him easily as a positive 

KAYFAST WARRIOR in contrast
Flat horse already had 18 runs
Won a 3yo hurdle race last time
His profile was more neutral

It is a trade off
Experience and fitness
For class and hurdling scope
 
STAND STAUCH is classier
The better long term prospect
My statistics do like him better
But I am switching selections

STAND STAUCH 

Downgraded stables
Joseph O'Brien to Alison Hamilton

Not so worried about that really
But what kind of trainer is she ?

If you look at her training record

In every and any kind of race 

Her horses aged under 9 years old
That were absent over 48 days
Have a very strange 0-83 record

Her best record
Comes with older chasers

She has never before
Trained any winner under 5
This race is not really her style
She may be looking longer term
So I am not going to trust him
And switching to the horse
Who has momentum onside

Selection

KAYFAST WARRIOR 11/10-5/4

Win Bet 





Lingfield 1.05

4/1 Porfin, 5/1 Boy George, He's Our Star
11/2 Headley George, 6/1 Well Prepared, 7/1 Agent Of Fortune
10/1 Think Trigger, 14/1 Yuhibu, 16/1 Blairlogie
20/1 Monsieur Patat, 25/1 Mr Mac.

8f Handicap

PORFIN has a fit profile
On a hat trick after 2 wins
Significantly ran 3 days ago
But unusually it was over 5f
Now stepping up from 5f to 8f 
That badly weakens his profile

THINK TRIGGER has 3 runs
He has been quietly backed
Horses aged 4
Under 4 career runs
Absent over 43 days
Produce a 0-30 record
He has 73 days off the track

Several of these can win 
Going to oppose the lightweights
In the hope those rated 55 or lower
May not have enough class
BOY GEORGE is only rated 53
Yet has to face 67 days absence 
AGENT OR FORTUNE is a mare
Rated 54 does not offer enough
MR MAC has similar problems too

HEADLEY GEORGE is an option
Not the best of draw in the race
Others have their own difficulties
Such as a few weeks off the track

Does not look at each way option
Split stake may suit this one better

PORFIN appeals as a place bet 
Yes up in trip is not a good sign 
But class and fitness much help
Enough to run into a place here

Selection
 
£5.00 Win Bet HES OUR STAR7/1

£5.00 Place Bet PORFIN 10/11 





Lingfield 2.15

1/1 Tone The Barone, 7/2 Marnie James
13/2 Shallow Hal, 7/1 Ornate
8/1 Strong Power.

5f Handicap

TONE THE BARONE 
Class horse in the race
Looks a smart saver bet

TONE THE BARONE 

Rated 103

Faces a 0-91 class field

There is a 12lbs class gap

SHALLOW HAL is rated 91
He has had 31 career starts
None were over 5 furlongs
This is his first ever 5f race
And it is in a class 2 handicap
Get Shallow Hal beaten here
TONE THE BARONE then
Only has a 0-83 to overcome

ORNATE a 9yo
Would not be first choice

STRONG POWER is a lightweight
He won here just 4 days ago
Definite positives with his profile
But that was only a Class 6 race
This is 4 grades higher than that
Never run in this class before
Never won beyond class 4 either
Hoping this may be too much

MARNIE JAMES looks safer
He also offers a recent race
That came in 3 grades higher

The strategy is to go for him
And save on the class horse

MARNIE JAMES becomes 5/2
With stakes back if favourite wins

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet MARNIE JAMES 6/1

£5.00 Win Bet TONE THE BARONE 10/11-1/1







Wolverhampton 4.00

3/1 Notoriously Risky, 7/2 Alcazan, 9/2 Exuding
5/1 Desert Lime, Inevitable Outcome, 7/1 Khatwah
14/1 Jessie Pye.

Fillies Handicap 6f

Some questionable profiles

JESSIE PYE has 144 days off

KHATWAH has 1 run in 217 days

EXUDING has 1 run in 168 days
Has recently downgraded stables

DESERT LINE is a 4yo
She comes from a 5f race
The only winners doing this
Had 9 or more career starts
She only has 6 career runs

Fillies Handicaps 6f
Run all year round
Both  turf and sand
Class 4 or lower
Horses aged 4
Coming from 5f
Under 7 career starts
Have a 0-18 record
Few tried but none won
DESERT LINE fails this angle
KHATWAH also fails this stat

NOTORIOUSLY RISKY a 4yo
She won last time out
But has 36 days off the track
She's raced once in 6 weeks

Drawn more
To the fitter profiles
At the top of the weights
INEVITABLE OUTCOME
Has the fittest profile of these
She is topweight down in class
Last time only finished in 8th
But was eased down later on
When away from the action
ALCAZAN is a cheap saver
Up in class but has momentun

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet INEVITABLE OUTCOME 4/1-7/2

£1.50 Win Bet ALCAZAN 6/1-13/2




Dundalk 5.45

2/1 Moshammer, 7/2 Twilight Man, 4/1 Troy Top
5/1 Cheval Blanc, Royal Tribute, 10/1 Destacado
50/1 Mambacita.

6f Maiden

No 3 year olds

TROY TOP is unraced
Not for me a 4yo gelding
Taking on the experienced

TWILIGHT MAN is a 4yo
Has already ran 8 times
He has ran once in 8 months
That is my problem with him
He is too short of recent runs
For a horse with as many races 

ROYAL TRIBUTE a 4yo
Ran 2 days ago in  claimer
Hard to read because of it
But he was a 40/1 chance
He had a 153 day absence
And he could bounce here

Split staking this
Between the profile horses
Who met each other last time
MOSHAMMER finished 2nd
CHEVAL BLANC was in 3rd
He has his work cut out
To reverse the form in this
But the draw may help him
He was eased down last time
And ran better than it looked

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet CHEVAL BLANC 11/2

£5.00 Win MOSHAMMER 6/5

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