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Preview Selections  
  
Musselburgh 2.10
Magna Moralia 11/8 
Win Bet
 
Yarmouth 3.00
£4.25 Each Way Coconut Bay 6/1
£1.50 Win Bet Fifty Sent 6/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Windsor 4.20 
£7.00 Win Follow That Star 11/4-3/1 
£3.00 Win Broadspear 11/4

Killarney 4.25
Noble Crusade 3/1
Win Bet

Wolverhampton 5.00
Eddie The Beagle 7/2
Each Way

Wolverhampton 6.30 
£5.00 Win Bet Al Shami 7/2 
£5.00 Place Bet We'renotreallyhere 1/1





Today's Message
  
First impressions of the day
Cards were too competitive
Deep and dense large fields 
It's not your typical Monday
It looked rather intimidating

Bit happier with the message
Warmed to it after early fears
Not sure how we will get on
It does offer us some variety
But this is still a difficult day





Today's Best Bet



Windsor 4.20 

£7.00 Win FOLLOW THAT STAR 11/4-3/1

£3.00 Win BROADSPEAR 11/4



Going for one of the safer races 
My own bet in this race will differ
Follow That Star each way at 5/2 +
But the bet will stands as stated

I'll be happy to break level today

No Message tomorrow

Will be at a funeral






Underneath The Message     



Personal Bet

Windsor 4.20 

Follow That Star 

£20 Each way 

Only if 5/2 or better
  



Musselburgh 2.10
Magna Moralia 11/8 
Win Bet

Should win but short price
Could have changed stakes
And used him as the saver
Not tempted myself with this





Yarmouth 3.00
£4.25 Each Way Coconut Bay 6/1
£1.50 Win Bet Fifty Sent 6/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

The 1st 2nd and 3rd favourites
All fail angles and look unsafe
This pair are 4th and 5th fav's
Can not split them it's a guess
I think one may be the answer
But which one is the dilemma
Not stables I like much either
Staking is rather ugly as well
Probably will not get involved


Windsor 4.20 
£7.00 Win Follow That Star 11/4-3/1 
£3.00 Win Broadspear  11/4

There was another option here
Follow That Star each way 3/1
But that is less accessible bet
But that's what I will be doing
Official stakes stand though


Personal Bet
Follow That Star 
£20 Each way 5/2 or better




Killarney 4.25
Noble Crusade 3/1
Win Bet

The bet I wanted in this race
Was each way with 4 places
Not impossible you get that 
He is drifting in the market
But that might be because
He was put in far too short
With topweight on the soft
Not going to bet this myself
But prefer each way 100/30




Wolverhampton 5.00
Eddie The Beagle 7/2
Each Way

Was expecting 4/1 not 7/2
May yet become that price
Not a strong enough bet
At the price to bet hard



Wolverhampton 6.30 
£5.00 Win Al Shami 7/2 
£5.00 Place We'renotreallyhere 1/1

Changed my mind here
Was going each way single
We'renotreallyhere at 6/1
But he let me down last time
He's drifting in the market
Bottled it into a split stake









Yesterday's Summary    

Sunday offered 6 previews 
Goodwood dominated day
Tough card and it beat us
Found 1 winner and a place
Needed to have done better
Pride Of Priory was best bet
After drifting in the market 
Started to get a bit worried
Those doubts materialised
He could only finish in fifth
Got that race badly wrong
Unsatisfactory day overall
On what was a difficult card





PROFILES & PREVIEWS      
  
  

Musselburgh 2.10

11/8 Magna Moralia, 7/2 Goodwood Glen
4/1 Brazilian Beach, 9/2 Kanzino
12/1 Master Oliver

Selling race 1m 4f

Like some experience 
MASTER OLIVER is unraced
Happy to oppose debutants

KANZINO has raced 4 times
Well beaten last time out
Needs to improve a lot to win
Seriously doubt his stamina too

GOODWOOD GLEN is a 4yo
Has a nasty 65 day absence

October selling races
Any distance
Horses aged 4
Absent over 22 days
Have a poor 1-87 record
Male 4 year olds are 0-55
GOODWOOD GLEN fails this

Some won in September
Some won in November
But that was over shorter

He fails this angle

Go back to 2007
Selling races 
Run over 1m 4f or more
Any time of the year
Horses aged 4
More than 8 career runs
Absent more than 35 days
Have a modest 1-53 record
Those absent over 47 days
Have a 0-35 record in them
GOODWOOD GLEN fails this

Should be a match

BRAZILIAN BEACH 
MAGNA MORALIA

BRAZILIAN BEACH ran 4 days ago
He is the inferior of the 2 shortlisted
But a recent run does compensate

MAGNA MORALIA has recent runs
Breeding stats do seem to suggest
1m 6f on softer ground in class 4
Is outside the sires stamina range
If that is true his last 2 Redcar runs
May well have been too far for him
Down in trip he looks the class horse

Selection

MAGNA MORALIA  11/8

Win Bet







Yarmouth 3.00

11/4 Richard P Smith, 4/1 Goldsmith, 6/1 Coconut Bay
8/1 Fifty Sent, 10/1 Fillyfudge,  10/1 Kelapa,  10/1 Shabs
16/1 James Jude, Marquis Of York, 20/1 Dashing To You
25/1 Sous Surveillance, 33/1 Artemisia Gentile, Hey Bails
40/1 Connie R, 50/1 Lady Spiritus.

10f Handicap (3yo)

Horses rated 0-62

Ed Dunlop trains the favourite
RICHARD P SMITH fine on profile
Solid figures entitled to go close
But has a very difficult draw here

Go back to 2009
Yarmouth 
10f Handicaps
Horses drawn 11 or more
Have a bad 1-79 record

Go back to 2009
Yarmouth 
10f Handicaps
Horses drawn 11 or more
Absent more than 12 days
Have a 0-103 record in them

RICHARD P SMITH fails this
Drawn 13 is not helping him

FILLYFUDGE is drawn 15
Bad draw and unsafe profile 
She is a filly with just 3 runs

Past renewals since 2011 
Horses with under 5 runs
Have a 0-24 record in this
FILLYFUDGE only has 3 runs

MARQUIS OF YORK is drawn 14
Horses with absences do badly
DASHING TO YOU faces this issue

KELAPA is a filly absent 46 days
With 10 runs she is a bit exposed
To be winning with such a break

HEY BAILS can't be ruled out

SHABS has a small chance
But not done much in 12 runs
And stamina doubts over 1m 2f

GOLDSMITH is an option
Ran well last time with excuses
Just 1 run in 79 days not ideal

FIFTY SENT has a chance
Drawn 12 is questionable
Non runner makes it easier

COCONUT BAY is a positive
Not a stable I like to rely on
But they seem to like this race
Winning 2020-2021 renewals

Selection

£4.25 Each Way COCONUT BAY 6/1

£1.50 Win Bet FIFTY SENT 6/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Windsor 4.20

5/2 Broadspear, 11/4 Follow That Star, 3/1 Vidhaata
4/1 Idee Fixee, 5/1 Morning Post, 33/1 Amerighi
50/1 Blue Daisy, Whispering Song, 66/1 Proud Warrior
100/1 Imperial Cult, 150/1 Darkest Dream.

8f Maiden

The Racing Post argue

" Only the brave will be trusting 
  Follow That Star or Broadspear 
  with them both 0-7 but chances 
  are one of them will win"

Well I am not brave
But I tend to agree one will win

VIDHAATE has a long absence
Dirty potential spoiler wary of him
But a yard impossible to rely on

IDEE FIXEE is third favourite
Unraced could be the danger
 
MORNING POST may improve
But a Gelding and he needs to
Drawn 10 may be a problem

Go back to 2015
Windsor
Every 8f races
Under 12 runners
Horses drawn 10 or more
Have a poor 1-72 record
MORNING POST shares this
 
Go back to 1997
Windsor
Every 8f races
Under 12 runners
Horses with under 3 runs
Drawn in stalls 10 and 11
Have a 1-87 record in them
MORNING POST shares this
 
Statistically speaking

Horses in 8f maidens
Run at this time of year
With 7 or more lifetime runs
Do not have the best record

Those starting  4/1 + are 0-27

Those at 7/2 or less are 3-12
  
BROADSPEAR should do that

FOLLOW THAT STAR should  

My angles suggest
That fillies are slightly safer
FOLLOW THAT STAR is a filly

I like the way both horses
Prop each up in the market
That allows us to bet both 
If an each way burglary bet
On one is too unpalatable

Selection

Option 1
Follow That Star 11/4-3/1
Each Way

Option 2
£7.00 Win Bet Follow That Star 11/4-3/1
£3.00 Win Bet Broadspear  11/4

I prefer option 1 myself
But chosen option 2 instead
As it is much more accesible

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet FOLLOW THAT STAR 11/4-3/1

£3.00 Win Bet BROADSPEAR 11/4








Killarney 4.25

3/1 Noble Crusade, 6/1 Itsalonglongroad
6/1 Spring Morning, 8/1 Amlad, 12/1 Bright Moment
12/1 Mr Mills, 14/1 Stellify,16/1 Benkogambit
16/1 Vocal Queen,  Chacha Dancer, Elle Dorado Rock
25/1 Astrophysicist, 25/1 Non Mollare, 25/1 Southwood.

Handicap 1m 3f

VOCAL QUEEN has an unfit profile
His sires runners at 1m 3f or more
Ground softer than good are 0-63

ASTROPHYSICIST a similar problem
His sires runners are 0-29 in them

BRIGHT MOMENT is a 3yo filly
Too inexperienced with 3 races
SPRING MORNING an older mare
Has 103 days break to overcome

CHACHA DANCER underraced
Having raced once in 190 days
NON MOLLARE is rated too low
Having raced once since July
SOUTHWOOD has an unfit profile
MR MILLS has 172 days absence
May not get home from his sire
BENKOGAMBIT is only rated 47
His sires runners at 1m 3f or more
Ground softer than good are 1-47

ELLE DORADO ROCK is a 4yo
Hasn't done enough yet to judge
But is quite short of recent runs 

AMLAD is an exposed 8 year old
Just 2 runs in 13 months a worry

STELLIFY is modest but can win
Low strike rate but not ruled out
  
ITSALONGLONGROAD is an 8yo
He popped up last time at 28/1
Probably unlikely to follow it up
But with a recent run respected

NOBLE CRUSADE

Decent figure 5 days ago
When drawn 21 of 19 at Navan
Feel he can outclass this field
  
Selection  

NOBLE CRUSADE 3/1

Win Bet







Wolverhampton 5.00

7/2 Hellavaheart, 5/1 Eddie The Beagle, King Charles
13/2 Owens Lad, 15/2 True Romance, 8/1 Sicario
10/1 Cavendish, 12/1 Air Hair Lair, 14/1 Aurora Papillon
16/1 Desert Quest, 25/1 Affair, Zyra's Lioness.

Handicap 1m 6f

HELLAVAHEART is a 3 year old
Could be vulnerable up in trip

Look at his sire Hellvelyn

Horses sired by Hellvelyn
Have never won beyond 12f
Only 8 tried but they all failed
He has 35 days absence too

Horses sired by Hellvelyn
Running over just 10f or more
Absent more than 15 days
Have a 0-56 record so far
HELLAVAHEART fails this angle
Breeding statistics say oppose

AI HAIR LAIR has a long absence
From his sire I'd question stamina

The following have weak profiles
Lacking runs or fitness doubts 
Scoring badly and lacking class 

25/1 Affair 
40/1 Zyra's Lioness
16/1 Desert Quest

OWENS LAD is in this category
With just 1 run in 273 days now

AURORA PAPILLON hard to like
Horrible stable and up 3f in trip
From a sire who gets few stayers

TRUE ROMANCE is an 8yo
Been running over hurdles
One of those hard to rule out
But equally hard to like much

CAVENDISH is a 3yo
Rated 50 and 12th in the weights
Not convinced he has the class

SICARIO has a chance
On positive side upgraded stables
But he is a 7yo absent 98 days now
Unsafe profile but 1 winner like him

KING CHARLES has a chance
Stall 12 may not be very helpful
He's raced once in just 67 days
Neither of those are very helpful

EAGLE THE BEAGLE as 3yo

Has a safe enough profile
Fewer doubts than the rest

Selection

EAGLE THE BEAGLE 7/2

Each Way







Wolverhampton 6.30

13/8 Tomahawk King, 11/4 Al Shami
11/2 We'renotreallyhere 15/2 Lady Of Arabia
8/1 Ana Hadi,  25/1 Royal Dream 33/1 Haaland,
33/1 Minoli, 33/1 Raintown 50/1 Kurt's Cat.

2yo Maiden 7f

TOMAHAWK KING

Sets the standard on his debut
Racing Post Rating of 84 there
More than good enough to win
But have my doubts about that

An unraced Camacho 2yo
Scoring an 84 on debut over 7f
When a cheap purchase as well
Starting 80/1 in that race too  
Could be wrong may be smart
But I would rather go elsewhere

LADY OR ARABIA an unraced filly
Stall 9 maybe not ideal on debut

Unraced 2yo fillies
Running here over 7f
When drawn 7 or higher
Are 0-60 now since 2014
Some won before that
But it's hardly a positive 
LADY OR ARABIA drawn 9
Looks far too risky here
 
ANA HADI might pop up
Fillies with 4 runs looks average
Not the biggest of horses either

AL SHAMI should go well
 
WE'RENOTREALLYHERE 

Comes here with 7 runs
Most experienced horse
Respectable figures too
May find one to beat him
But should go quite close
Hard to find 3 better options
Making him a place saver
 
Selection

£5.00 Win Bet AL SHAMI 7/2

£5.00 Place Bet WE'RENOTREALLYHERE 1/1

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