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Today's Best Bet


York 1.50 

PARACHUTE  9/1-10/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5 







Preview Selections
 
York 1.50 
Parachute 9/1-10/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5 

York 2.25  
Trueshan 10/11
Win Bet

York 3.00 
£5.00 Win Bet Chateau 12/1 
£2.50 Win Bet Royal Scotsman 3/1 
£2.50 Win Bet Marshman 3/1
 
York 3.35 
£3.50 Each Way Khaadem 9/1-10/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Raasel 12/1

York 4.45
£9.00 Win Bet Desert Order 7/4 
£1.00 Win Bet Lahab 9/1

York 5.20 
£7.00 Win Bet Leuven Power 6/1-7/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Operating 7/2-4/1
£1.00 Win Bet Golden Voice 7/1







Today's Message

 
6 Previews all at York

Two areas of frustration

Wanted to cover other tracks
But did not have enough time
If It had that would be rushed
But I want to wander tomorrow

My best bet

Annoyingly been backed

York 1.50 
Parachute 9/1-10/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5 

Dropped this race for a while
Done the last 3 renewals of it
Got the right completely right
Yet never backed the winner
Twice each way second place
One lost to a first time out type
The other renewal frustrating
Backed the second each way
Shortlisted the winner as well
Feel I do understand this race

But yet to be rewarded by it

Not so sure about connections
But it's easily the days best bet

Only other race worth a mention

The Nunthorpe Stakes

Market leaders are wrong


 
York 3.35  
£4.00 Each Way Khaadem 9/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Raasel 12/1
£1.00 Win Bet Flotus 8/1-9/1

Was not sure how to stake this
Confusing so we may need luck



Today's Best Bet


York 1.50 

PARACHUTE  9/1-10/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5 






Underneath The Message   
     
York 1.50 

Parachute

£35 Win Bet 11/1 Betfair

£15 Place Bet 7/4 + 1-2-3-4-5

Parachute may be my only bet

The other I would consider

York 4.45

Desert Order 7/4 

Each Way bet around 2/1
On Betfairs each way market







Yesterday's Summary 
    
Final scorecard was L P W L L P
Had a very good best bet winner
Messed up some staking choices
One of these was Tuesday's race
Should have saved on the winner
Started off with a disappointment
Kinta and the place saver beaten
Do not feel that was badly staked
They just both ran well below par
Got couple of saver bets winning
Adaay In Asia was one of those
Could have flipped flopped those
Saving on the favourite instead
Maybe that was another mistake
But the best bet delivered for us
BLUE FOR YOU an excellent race
Preview was faultless so pleased
Good bet something to build on


 



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



York 1.50

13/2 Juan De Montalban, 7/1 Cormier
15/2 Lord Protector 8/1 Mahrajaan, 9/1 Thundering
10/1 Moktasaab, 12/1 Amtiyaz, 12/1 Charging Thunder,
12/1  Farhan, 14/1 Kihavah, 14/1 Onesmoothoperator
16/1 Dark Jedi, 18/1 Angel Power, 18/1 Party Island
20/1 Parachute, Ravenscraig Castle, 25/1 Tasman Bay
28/1 Graphite, 33/1 Annandale.
   
12f Handicap

17 past renewals

A race dominated in the past
By unexposed 4-5 year olds

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-28 record in this race
GRAPHITE is rejected aged 8

Horses with over 24 career runs
Have a 0-62 record in this race

Horses with over 16 career runs
Have a 1-117 record in this race
The following all fail these angles

GRAPHITE 
DARK JEDI
CORMIER
PARTY ISLAND
ANNANDALE
CHARGING THUNDER
 
THUNDERING is a 3 year old
A couple have won in the past
But they are 0-18 since 2009
And none that won were like him
Taking a step up in class here

Horses rated 84 or less
Have a 0-45 record in this race
RAVENSCRAIG CASTLE rated 83
May not have the class for this
PARTY ISLAND also fails this
ANNANDALE fails this as well

High numbers
Look vulnerable here

York 12f races
Run since 2015
Horses drawn 14 or higher
Have a 1-81 record in them
The only winner managing it
Came in an Apprentice race
And had won 6 days earlier
LORD PROTECTOR drawn 19
May find that too much a task
PARTY ISLAND is badly drawn

JUAN DE MONTALBAN a 4yo
Has a tough draw in stall 17
 
Go back to 1997
York 12f races
Horses drawn 15 or higher
Absent more than 29 days
Have a 0-55 record in them
KIHAVAH has this profile
Not for me with 98 days off

Horses aged 5 or older
Absent more than 26 days
Have a 0-38 record in this
KIHAVAH fails this statistic

AMTIJAZ also fails this angle
He faces 406 days off the track
FARNHAM is now a 4 year old
Won the November Handicap 
Now 6lbs higher and 98 days off
May be asking too much of him
TASMAN BAY looks underaced
ANGEL POWER is not 1st choice
The only female in this race

ONESMOOTHOPERATOR is a 5yo
Has a chance and not a negative
But he will need a career best
And he does not fit the ideal profile

Best Profile

Horses aged 4
Between 3 and 16 runs
Absent 15-65 days
Beaten <20 lengths last time
2 or more runs in 12 weeks
Horses with this profile
Have a 11-46 record in this

They won this in these years 
2005 2007 2010 2012 2014
Won both divisions in 2015
Also won in 2016 2017 2018
Had the runner up last year
The following have this profile

LORD PROTECTOR
JUAN DE MONTALBAN
MOKTASAAB
PARACHUTE
MAHRAJAAN
 
JUAN DE MONTALBAN has a tough draw

LORD PROTECTOR has the worst draw
 
MAHRAJAAN is lighty raced
Returned to form last time out
Dont have a major issue for him
But it I get forensic with the profile
Little cracks start to appear
Maybe needs 2lbs less weight
I'd consider him as a £1 saver

MOKTASAAB is also a player
If he copes with stall 15 here
Considered him as £1 saver
 
PARACHUTE has a sound profile

He will need a career best to win

Never won in the class before
Never won off his rating either

But go a bit deeper into his runs
He has some good class 2 form
And has had excuses at times
His figures are very consistent
Lovely weight and draw here
Not unexposed and ideal profile

Selection

PARACHUTE 9/1-10/1

Each Way








York 2.25

10/11 Trueshan, 7/2 Coltrane
7/1 Tashkhan, 7/1 Quickthorn, 50/1 Mostly Cloudy
50/1 Reshoun, 66/1 Nate The Great.

Lonsdale Cup Stakes

Stradivarius is a non runner

Messed up the original preview

Left with far fewer options now
 
The best trial race for this

The Goodwood Cup

13 of the last 24 winners

Came from that race 

Suspect it may happen again
 
TRUESHAN finished 3rd there
COLTRANE finished in 4th 
  
COLTRANE need to improve
But could so and is less exposed
QUICKTHORN might be a danger
His figures entitle him to respect
 
Official ratings 

TRUESHAN 124

Tashkhan 115
Coltrane 113
Quickthorn 111

Healthily clear
Not worried about ground
Going with the class horse

Selection

TRUESHAN 10/11

Win Bet






York 3.00

11/4 Marshman, 1/4 Royal Scotsman, 3/1 Noble Style
8/1 Clearpoint, 12/1 Chateau, 16/1 Never Just A Dream
20/1 Catch The Paddy, 20/1 Cold Case, 25/1 Galeron
25/1  Waiting All Night, 33/1 Chuzzlewit, Lakota Blue

Gimcrack Stakes

2yo Group 2 (6f)

Racing Post Ratings show

ROYAL SCOTSMAN is top
NOBLE STYLE Is second

What complicates things
They have the highest draws

You can win high over 6f 

Go back to 1997
York 6f races
Class 2 and higher
Under 13 runners 
Horses with under 4 runs
Drawn in stall 11 or higher
Have a 0-14 record in them 
NOBLE STYLE fails this angle
Has the highest draw of all
And only has 2 career runs

You could argue
Yesterdays Lowther Stakes
Puts a dampener on the draw
That winner had 3 races though

CLEARPOINT is unsafe
Only horse coming from 5f
 
Past winners prepping over 5f
All had 3 or 4 career starts
All 13 with fewer races failed 
CLEARPOINT fails this angle
 
No winners came via nurserys
CLEAR THE POINT does this
  
ROYAL SCOTSMAN is short
But is entitled to be favourite
He won the Richmond Stakes
Thats a very decent trial race
CHATEAU finished 3rd there
He was only a 3/1 chance to win
And should not be far behind

MARSHMAN has 2 runs
He won easily just 7 days ago
1997 winner won 9 days before
No others ran within 11 days
Hard to know is this is helpful
Whether it just comes to soon

Could be 3 Co favourites here
Market doesn't know which one
You could bet any each way
Any just hope you get lucky

From the market leaders
NOBLE STYLE is dropped
Only because of highest draw
Making the other pair savers
Going for an unusual stake

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet CHATEAU 12/1-14/1 +

£2.50 Win Bet ROYAL SCOTSMAN 3/1

£2.50 Win Bet MARSHMAN 3/1






York 3.35

13/8 Royal Aclaim, 11/4 The Platinum Queen
12/1 Flotus, 12/1 Highfield Princess, 12/1 Khaadem
12/1 Raasel, 16/1 Emaraaty Ana, 16/1 Winter Power
20/1 Lazuli, 25/1 Dragon Symbol, 40/1 Acklam Express
40/1 Clarendon House, Ebro River, 50/1 New York City
100/1 Ainsdale.
  
Nunthorpe Stakes

ROYAL ACLAIM is unbeaten

He is a 3yo with 3 career runs

You can argue inexperienced
But his market danger is a 2yo
All his other rivals 10/1 or more
He may have found a soft year
 
His profile has flaws though

Horses aged 3
Coming from 5f races
Have won this 4 times

They had 7 11 12 12 runs
ROYAL ACLAIM only has 3

They had 5 5 5 3 runs that year
ROYAL ACLAIM only has 2 runs
He does look quite short on runs
Win lose of draw an unsafe profile
But what do we oppose him with

DRAGON SYMBOL drawn 15 of 15
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS drawn in 14

York 5f races
Since 2010
With under 16 runners
Horses drawn 14 and 15
Have a 0-35 record in them
DRAGON SYMBOL fails this
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS does
    
THE PLATINUM QUEEN is a 3yo 
Gets a lot of weight from his elders
The 2 year old record is acceptable
12 juveniles tried and one did win it

Horses aged 2
Starting under 20/1
Finished in these positions
W 19 13 11 13 3 2 9
With 3 of these placing
And one of them winning
THE PLATINUM QUEEN on profile
Can not be discounted here
But not going to select a 2yo
Who is drawn as high as 13

Go back to 1997

York 5f races
Any distance
Any kind of race
Any time of year

Horses aged 2
Drawn 13 or higher
Have a 0-39 record
THE PLATINUM QUEEN fails this

If we look at that draw stats
York 5f races
Any distance
Any kind of race
Any time of year
With under 16 runners
Horses aged 2
Drawn 12 or higher
Have a 0-42 record
THE PLATINUM QUEEN fails this
This stat includes every race here
Never mind a G1 against elders

WINTER POWER won last year
This year looks to have regressed
EMARAATY ANA is 6 years old
Could go well but not my choice

Go back to 1997
Horses aged 5 or older
Drawn in stall 10 or higher
Have a 0-65 record in this race
EMARAATY ANA drawn in 11
Shares this 0-65 profile
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS does
AINSDALE also fails this

FLOTUS is a 3yo filly
Her type have won this race
Last years winner was one
None came from 6f like her 

3 of the last 5 winners

8 of the last 24 winners
  
Came from Goodwood

And the Qatar Stakes
 
KHAADEM won that race
RAASEL finished in second
LAZULI finished in 4th

KHAADEM could be the one
But just 1 run in 111 days now
I have found older winners
Who had also lacked races

LAZULI may be held on form
Could be a mistake to ignore him
Do we want him sired by Dubawi
In a Group 1 race over 5 furlongs ?

FLOTUS was considered
But you have to go back 17 years
For the last winner down in distance
Horses from 6f or more
Have a 0-58 record since 2005
FLOTUS fails this 0-58 statistic
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS does too

Staying with the Qatar Stakes
 
Selection

£4.00 Each Way KHAADEM 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet RAASEL 12/1

£1.00 Win Bet FLOTUS 8/1-9/1







York 4.45

7/4 Desert Order, 5/2 Salt Lake City, 8/1 Yacowlef
12/1 Lahab, 20/1 Captain Wentworth, Glenfinnan
22/1 Mahboobah, My Harrison George, No Barrier
22/1 Pjanoo, 25/1 Hi Royal, 25/1 Maggie's Tern
25/1 Racingbreaks Ryder, 33/1 Three Yorkshiremen
33/1 Ubettabequick, 40/1 Baltic Voyage, 50/1 Sigmund
50/1 Single Track Mind, 100/1 Frankie's Wish.

Convivial Maiden Stakes

2 Year olds (7f)

Known unknowns here

DESERT ORDER has 2 runs
Sets the standard on figures
But he drops down from a mile
Only 2 horses did that in this race

SALT LAKE CITY has 1 run
Second best on achievements
Could be a huge player for Aidan
But he does not target this race
And stall 15 could be a problem

Last year stall 16 won this race

Every renewals before that
Going all the way back to 1997
Every winner was drawn 1 to 10
Maybe last year was a poor one

Go back to 2005

York 7f races
Horses aged 2
Drawn 13 or higher
Have a 1-51 record 
SALT LAKE CITY has this profile
 
LAHAB is worth considering
But he needs to improve a lot

Forced to pick
DESERT ORDER gets the verdict
Better drawn and more experience
And better figures than Salt Lake City
Going to squeeze in a saver bet too


Selection

£9.00 Win Bet DESERT ORDER 7/4

£1.00 Win Bet LAHAB 7/1


 




York 5.20

9/2 Operating, 11/2 Bay Of Honour, 6/1 Golden Voice
7/1 Leuven Power, 9/1 Bolthole, 10/1 New Kingdom
11/1 Point Lynas, 12/1 System, 16/1 Al Marmar
16/1 Encourageable, Mr Professor, 18/1 City Runner
20/1 Blenheim Boy, Master Richard, 25/1 Exminster
33/1 Power Of Beauty, Spirit Catcher.
  
3yo Handicap (8f)

8 Past renewals

Not a detailed preview

Dislike the very high draws
But that does not help much
Mainly outsiders drawn high

BOLTHOLE is down in trip
 
3yo Handicaps (8f)
Run in Class 2 grade
Any time of year
Horses from 9f or more
Over 4 career starts
Absent more than 13 days
Have a 0-142 record in them
BOLTHOLE fails this 0-142 angle
MR PROFESSOR fails this as well
BLENHEIM BOY almost does
But did not to enough last time

Horses with over 10 runs
Have a weak 1-48 record
Several outsiders fail this
SYSTEM has 11 races now
He may be too exposed too
MASTER RICHARD might be

Similar races in August

Horses rated 100 or more
Have a 0-18 record in them 
BAY OF HONOUR runs off 102
Not my first choice because of it
NEW KINGDOM his stablemate
Also fails this running off 100
He's raced once in 112 days
So not too drawn to him either

LEUVEN POWER won 9 days ago
That does make me interested
But past renewals of this show
Horses running within 13 days
Have a 0-38 record in the race
Abeit many were not fancied
Think he should be on staking

OPERATING should be as well
GOLDEN VOICE is also a player
So going to stagger this race

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet LEUVEN POWER 6/1-7/1

£2.00 Win Bet OPERATING 7/2-4/1

£1.00 Win Bet GOLDEN VOICE 7/1




 


FUTURE BETTING ANGLES    

  

First Column in a while

Won't be too much longer

Before the schedule eases

Allowing me to bring it back 






Saturday

Ebor Handicap

5/1 Earl Of Tyrone 7/1  Gaassee 8/1 Okita Soushi 
10/1 Ever Present 10/1 Trawlerman 12/1 Euchen Glen
12/1 Licence 12/1 Candleford 14/1 John Leeper
14/1 Get Shirty 16/1 Benaud 16/1 Valley Forge 
20/1  Calling The Wind 20/1 Max Vega  20/1 Enemy
25/1 Alfred Boucher 25/1 Shanroe 25/1 Global Storm
33/1 Raymond Tusk 33/1 Fancy Man 33/1 Dark Jedi
33/1 Not So Sleepy 33/1 Rodrigo Diaz  50/1 Quenelle D'or
  
Full Statistics below

Spent only a few minutes
Applying the below angles
Call it purely my first draft

First draft shortlist

5/1 Earl Of Tyrone
7/1 Gaassee   
12/1 Candleford    
14/1 Alfred Boucher   

Alfred Boucher is not the right type
But he gets a pass onto the shortlist
Because he won well only 3 days ago
Will need to relook at him later on

Earl Of Tyrone will fail a statistic
I found one the other day about him
But I never wrote it down like a fool
But I will find it relooking at his profile
So not sure yet how bad that might be
Either way statistics are listed below







Salford City

Top of the league right now

Got an email yesterday 

" Hi Guy,hope you and Mick are still running 
  a good service.I am an old follower but at 81 
  i now just imagine i have had a bet. Which 
  reminds me of my biggest life time bet which
  I still believe the Covid situation ruined.Now 
  it seems to me the boys may be resuming that 
 effort after two years of lost opportunity. At  
 present 6-1, I wondered for old times sake if 
  it had stirred your memory as I am tempted 
  to come out of retirement and retrieve those 
  losses. cheers "


Lovely bloke

Like me a bit on the eccentric side
Joined the service dozens of times
Invariably left it after a few days

After a bad Saturday he canceled 
Usually rejoined the Monday after

Not sure what Mick felt about that
But he must have spent more time
Taking him in and out of the service
Than anything else on his schedule
 
Sounds to me that the last straw 
Was that Salford bet of the year

I am not on Salford this season 
No plans to be or suggest them 

But I hope they win for this guy
He's 81 and his biggest ever bet
Was the Salford City ante post
Would love them to win for him



   



Ante Post Statistics

Saturday
 
August 20th

York 3.35

Ebor Handicap 

5/1 Earl Of Tyrone 7/1  Gaassee 8/1 Okita Soushi 
10/1 Ever Present 10/1 Trawlerman 12/1 Euchen Glen
12/1 Licence 12/1 Candleford 14/1 John Leeper
14/1 Get Shirty 16/1 Benaud 16/1 Valley Forge 
20/1  Calling The Wind 20/1 Max Vega  20/1 Enemy
25/1 Alfred Boucher 25/1 Shanroe 25/1 Global Storm
33/1 Raymond Tusk 33/1 Fancy Man 33/1 Dark Jedi
33/1 Not So Sleepy 33/1 Rodrigo Diaz  50/1 Quenelle D'or
  
Ebor Handicap 

Downgraded this a few years ago
My statistics were compromised
By a huge increase in prize money
Just playing with a few statistics

The race may be won
By a top class trainer
With an unexposed horse
Who may be Group 2 class

The last 10 winners
Had these official Ratings

108 108 108 109 103 103 99 106 98 101

Horses rated 97 or less
Have not won this race
Although only 13 tried

Horses with 9st 4lbs or less
Have a 0-36 record since 2018
 
Go back to 1980
No horse has won this race
When aged 8 or older

Go back 21 years to 1997
Any York race over 9f and more
Horses drawn 21 or more are 0-75
  
Horses with 1 run that season
Quite often win this handicap
But none with over 8 career runs 

Go back to 2007
Horses with over 3 runs
In the previous 12 weeks
Have a 0-42 record in this
And could be overraced

Horses aged 4 
Have a very modest 4-186 record
Those with over 12 runs are 0-62
Those with under 6 runs are 0-20

Horses aged 4 
Running within 5 weeks
Have a poor 1-104 record
Those from Class 2 or lower
Have a 0-60 record in this
 
The last 10 renewals show
Horses with over 18 runs
Have a poor 1-57 record

 The last 10 renewals show
Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 
Have a poor 1-51 record
Horses drawn 6-19 are best
 
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