4 Previews 
0 Account Bet
  
No Account bet     







Preview Selections
 
Wolverhampton 1.45 
Buxted Reel 3/1-100/30
Win Bet

Wolverhampton 3.15 
£8.00 Win Bet Maylah 11/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Giant Steps 5/1
 
Windsor 4.35
£7.00 Win Bet Youllovemewheniwin 7/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Kath's Toyboy 2/1-9/4

Windsor 5.05
Juanita 4/1-7/2 
Each Way






Today's Message   



Quieter message today
Need to calm things down

Wolverhampton has 2 previews
Months since I did a race here
Out of practice on the all weather
And I just don't feel I can trust it

A good example is the 3.15pm
My original best bet runs here
But he is stinking in the market
So I have changed the strategy
And downgraded the strength

Kempton on the all weather
No confidence riding slowly

Not done Windsor in months
Feeling my way at this course

Just feels a non committal day

No days off this week

Using today to catch my breath

See how I do on unfamiliar tracks

And try to find some momentum



 
Today's Best Bet


None Today







Underneath The Message
     

Wolverhampton 1.45 
Buxted Reel 3/1-100/30

If you gave me a free bet
I'd go £5 each way 7/2 +
Could find one a bit better
But he has a fitness edge
Think that may be enough
To get him into 1st or 2nd

  
Wolverhampton 3.15 
£8.00 Win Bet Maylah 11/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Giant Steps 5/1

Plan A has been shelved
Giant Steps 9/2 each way 
But he is drifting too quickly
Not prepared to commit now
I'd have been happy at 9/2
But he is now 7.4 on Betfair
And the speed of that drift
Has triggered major concerns
May all change this afternoon
But I have switched strategies
Plan B is a win bet and saver


 
Windsor 4.35
£7.00 Win Bet Youllovemewheniwin 7/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Kath's Toyboy 5/2-9/4

Felt the saver bet might win this
Kath's Toyboy around 9/4 or 5/2 
Did tempt me a little each way
That would be my own strategy
But will not be having any bets



 
Windsor 5.05
Juanita 4/1 
Each Way

Common sense bet
Profile closer to typical winners
Of similar races for Apprentices
But don't feel strong about this







Yesterday's Summary  

Went for a short price horse
For the message's best bet
Heat And Dust in the opener
Put us in trouble losing first
She ran a stinker to be fair
Initially I blamed the ground
She looked like she hated it
But unknown to me before
Her trainer when interviewed
Declared that she was in foal
That may have been a reason
We never will know the truth
Top Basanta finished in 6th
Don't think I did much wrong
Chosen from my top 3 options
Who came from the same race
These 3 finished 1st 2nd + 6th
Got the race right but it failed
As I guessed the wrong horse
And didn't stake it well enough
Dubai Mile won which was nice
Very much steadied the nerves
Ask Philip drifted ran a stinker
Overall that was a bad result
He jumped badly from the start
Made a mess of that race really
There were too few positives
To have taken on the favourite
Over and underestimated some
Feel I trapped myself in a view
That hindsight shows was silly
Haydock offered us 3 previews
Made clear all were low stakes
Tipperary Tiger ran really well
He was unlucky got impeded 
Finished a staying on into 6th   
Being hampered cost a place
Forgivable placed in 3rd at 7/1
But we only had him to win it
I shortlisted 1st 2nd 3rd 6th
Felt I got the race sorted out
Ultimately lost in the process
Of guessing which one to bet
And how to stake the options
Million Reasons placed e/way
Thought some of the staking  
Was either unwise of unlucky
Best bet failed which was bad
Unsure if the excuse was valid
But overall it really didn't work


  




PROFILES & PREVIEWS     


 
Wolverhampton 1.45

9/4 Banned, 7/2 Teagarden Jazz, 4/1 Buxted Reel
6/1 Planet Legend, 7/1 Noble Run
10/1 Master Of Colours.

12f Handicap (3yo)

Many known unknowns here
Not least as a maiden handicap
Not enough relevant history 
And 6 runners limits options

Happy to ignore the outsiders
MASTER OF COLOURS an absence
AUNTIE MARGARET flopped recently
 
Have to choose a type we like 
Maybe a traditional 3 run preparation
TEAGARDEN JAZZ is an example
NOBLE RUN a similar preparation
These types can and do win them

BANNED has some decent form 
My only real concern about her
She's a filly with 1 run in 75 days
She may win despite that question
But there is a far fitter profile here
BUXTED REEL ran just 2 days ago
Beaten a neck on his 12th start

Yes he is exposed after 12 races
No doubt vulnerable to improvers
But he has some big positives too
Most in this with less experience
And fewer recent races than he has
Have to concede weight to him 
Few of these can be read properly
But drawn more to his positives

Selection

BUXTED REEL 3/1-100/30

Win Bet







Wolverhampton 3.15

9/2 Giant Steps, 5/1 Maylah, 5/1 Fact Or Fable
6/1 Marchetti, 7/1 Connemera Queen, 8/1 Hey Pretty
8/1 Royal Heart, 12/1 Infinite Appeal, 14/1 Miss Connaisseur
14/1 Secret To Success, 16/1 Dillydingdillydong
25/1 Dodgy Bob.

7f Classified Stakes

Quite a puzzle but these races
Do have their consistent angles 

I want experience
And a few unflawed profile
Opposing all the following

INFINITE APPEAL has 3 runs
Highly unlikely to be enough
HEY PRETTY is 7 years old
He's raced once in 161 days
He could well be on the bounce 
FACT OR FABLE has 91 days off
MARCHETTI is an older mare
She's raced once in just 94 days
SECRET TO SUCCESS is opposed
Not safe enough with 103 days off
MISS CONNAISSEUR is a 4 year old
Not well weighted and up in trip 
DODGY BOB offers us few positives
DILLYDINGDILLYDONG is a 4yo
Finished last on latest two starts
May reverse his current mediocrity
But no signs why he should today
ROYAL HEART can win on best form
But not running that well right now

COONEMARA QUEEN a 9yo mare
Can not be entirely ruled out here
Hardly a reassuring combination

MAYLAH

Decent profile lots to like
Stall 11 could have been better

GIANT STEPS is a 5yo
Solid profile with recent runs
Missed the break last time
Raced in last for some way
Gave too much ground away
Finished well into third place

If he performs with no bad luck
Pretty confident he should win
But he is often slowly away
Racing from the back early on
And trouble seems to follow him
Does look about to win though
But the market is suggesting not
Going to make him the saver


Selection
 
£8.00 Win Bet MAYLAH 11/2

£2.00 Win Bet GIANT STEPS 5/1







Windsor 4.35

15/8 Kath's Toyboy, 3/1 Youllovemewheniwin
11/2 Rooful, 6/1 Hagia Sophia, 12/1 Global Acclamation
12/1 Wiff Waff, 16/1 Ower Starlight, Stella's Charlie
20/1 Glen Rosa, 50/1 Darke Horse, 50/1 Epeius.

6f Handicap

Looked at the draw 

Go back to 1997
Windsor 6f handicaps
Over 9 runners
Between May and November
Horses aged 5 or more
Absent 4 or more weeks
Drawn 1-2-3-4 
Have a poor 1-125 record
Those drawn 1 were 0-28
GLOBAL ACCLAMATION 
Fails this drawn in stall 1 
Rated 46 out of the handicap
There are far safer choices

Can't help on the figures
Being drawn to high weights
Some significant low scorers 
Amongst the bottomweights

GLEN ROSA has weak figures
EPEIUS goes as a 9 year old
Month off a poor last race
Not for me in a sprint handicap

Happy to avoid inexperience
DARKE HOUSE looks too raw
STELLA'S CHRLIE does too

OWER STARLIGHT off too long
WIFF WAFF looks underraced

ROOFUL is a 4yo filly
She's raced once since May
Many rivals have multiple runs
In the same time she raced once

HAGIA SOPHIA can go well
But see her as the 3rd best

Staying with topweights

KATH'S TOYBOY
YOULLOVEMEWHENIWIN

Both exposed 4 year olds
Both met on sand last time

KATH'S TOYBOY 
Has the best numbers
The most recent races
And the best jockey too

Equaly he is a short price
Luck in running is in play
He is on the quirky side too
So going to make him a saver

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet YOULLOVEMEWHENIWIN 7/2 +

£3.00 Win Bet KATH'S TOYBOY 2/1-9/4







Windsor 5.05

5/2 Pollinate, 7/2 Ellie Piper, 5/1 Adaay Atatime
6/1 Juanita, Kaswarah, 8/1 Pokhara, 14/1 Amalfi Gem
33/1 Sky Storm, Vincenzo Coccotti, 50/1 Master Sully.

6f Handicap

Apprentice riders

POLLINATE a 4yo filly
Won last time on her 10th run
Whilst that was a career best
It was a worrying 66 days ago
Not exactly ideal in these races
Several others are underraced
ELLIE PIPER another 4yo filly
Has raced just once in 152 days
SKY STORM carries topweight 
When facing 70 days absence
Several others have long breaks

POKHARA is respected
But similar races show us
None of the winners aged 3
Came from 5f races like her
Or had under 8 runs like her

Apprentice Handicaps 6f
Run at any time of year
Horses aged 3
Coming from 5f
Under 8 career starts
Have a 0-21 record
POKHARA has this profile

ADAAY ATATIME is an option
Poor last run but it was on firm

JUANITA offers the most of all

Selection

JUANITA 4/1-7/2

Each Way

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