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Today's Message  
 
Dublin Festival day 2

Leopardstown dominates

Mix of big and small fields
Covered a few races there

Musselburgh looks drab
Small fields rain on the way
Do not see anything I liked
Kempton offers us nothing

Not a day for a stake bet


Message choice

Nothing much stood out

Going with this selection


Leopardstown 1.20

£2.00 Win Bet Fury Road 10/1

£8.00 Place Bet Fury Road 6/4

  
Message planned Monday


Preview Selections

Leopardstown 12.45
£7.50 Win Bet Glan 5/1-11/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Lunar Display 7/1-8/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Sit Down Lucy 9/1

Leopardstown 1.20
£2.00 Win Bet Fury Road 10/1
£8.00 Place Bet Fury Road 6/4

Leopardstown 1.50
£4.00 Each Way Captain Guinness 7/1
£2.00 Win Bet Greaneteen 4/1-9/2
1/4 Odds (2 Places)

Leopardstown 2.25
£3.50 Each Way Rebel Gold 12/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Max Flamingo 6/1
£1.50 Win Bet Fakir D'alene 7/1

Leopardstown 4.10 
£2.50 Each Way Suprise Package 16/1-18/1
£2.50 Each Way  Get My Drift 12/1-11/1 
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6


Yesterday's Summary 
 
Because of two poor Saturdays
I wanted to put and end to that
By going for a staked bet winner 
Thankfully managed to find that
But overall the message suffered
There were only 5 races covered
The Brimming Water did not run
Made a mess of a couple of races
So that was a low quality message
But we did get what we came for
We had to suffer 4 miles of misery 
CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK got there
Small profit but more importantly
Reversed recent Saturday damage
Which had started to affect things
Main aim achieved but mediocre

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

  

Leopardstown 12.45

9/4 Party Central, 9/2 Brides Hill, 7/1 Glan
8/1 Must Be Obeyed, 10/1 De Lady In Red
10/1 Sit Down Lucy, 12/1 Banntown Girl
14/1 Annie G, Lunar Display, 16/1 Minx Tiara
16/1 Say Goodbye, 33/1 Botani
50/1 Strange Notions, 66/1 That's Lifebuoy
66/1 Whatucallher. 

Mares Handicap Hurdle

13 Past renewals
 
BRIDES HILL is topweight

It could be tough for a 5yo  
Horses with 11st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-24 record in this race

BRIDES HILL fails this statistic
His age is also a factor as well
 
Horses aged 5 and 6
Have a poor 4-111 record  

All 4 winners dropped in trip
Those  from 2m 1f or shorter
Have a worrying 0-51 record
BRIDES HILL has this profile
ANNIE G does the same
DE LADY IN RED has it too

LUNAR DISPLAY is a 6yo
Tough weight with 11st 9lbs
None with 11st 6lbs + won (0-24)

All 13 previous winners
Ran within the last 8 weeks

ANNIE G has 100 days absence
SAY GOODBYE has 105 days off

Past winners
Had the following career runs
18 14 11 6 26 20 12 11 10 19 12
Horses with over 20 career runs
Have not scored well enough
Most of the rank outsiders fail

MINX TARA is a bit too exposed
She fails the weight statistic too
BOTANI does not offer enough

PARTY CENTRAL is popular
Can forgive her 63 days off
Even if longer than past winners
She only has 3 hurdle races 
 
Past winner
Had the following hurdle runs
6 10 5 5 20 17 11 8 5 16 9 16 3

The only winner of this race
With under 5 hurdle starts
Was a long way back in 2009
PARTY CENTRAL is a bit raw
But no negative from G. Elliot

GLAN has 4 hurdle runs
She also has 70 days absence
Longer than any past winner
She also fails this angle

Strange that in 13 renewals
We have had 12 trip droppers
Horses coming from 2m races
Have a very poor 1-81 record

GLAN fails this from 2 miles
SIT DOWN LUCY fails it too
BRIDES HILL has this problem
DE LADY IN RED does as well
 
BANNTOWN GIRL is a 7yo
Just 3 hurdle runs to date
Makes her look a bit short 

MUST BE OBEYED a 6yo
Passes all the above angles
One angle does worry me
  
Last time out winners
Have a poor 1-40 record
MUST BE OBEYED did this
BRIDES HILL also won last time
PARTY CENTRAL did as well

MUST BE OBEYED up in class
Could still improve and take this
Trainer says she is temperamental

Every one of these
Can be criticised for something

PARTY CENTRAL around 5/2
Was considered as a saver bet
But rejected her at the prices

In the end preferred 2 savers
 
LUNAR DISPLAY has to be
Her 8 day absence may help
It could count against her too
But the 2018 winner of this
Did come from the same race  
 
SIT DOWN LUCY another saver

GLAN though is the selection
Not ideal she comes up from 2m
But the one winner that did that
Did have an absence as she does

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet GLAN 5/1-11/2

£1.50 Win Bet LUNAR DISPLAY 7/1-8/1

£1.00 Win Bet SIT DOWN LUCY 9/1 

Leopardstown 1.20

4/9 Galopin Des Champs, 6/1 Master McShee
13/2 Fury Road, 10/1 Beacon Edge, 10/1 Capodanno
14/1 French Dynamite, 25/1 Gaillard Du Mesnil
33/1 Fighter Allen.

Grade 1 Novice Chase

Willie Mullins dominates this

Trains 1st + 2nd favourites

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS 1/2

CAPODANNO 9/1

Very hard to oppose him here
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS odds on
But on the other side of the coin
Neither have significant profiles

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS a 6yo
Comes here with just 1 chase run

CAPODANNO is also a 6 year old
He has had just the 2 chase starts
 
Only 1 horse aged 6 has won
Since Florida Pearl won in 1998
He had 3 previous chase runs
Neither of these horses have this

Don't see them as a negative here
But I can't take an odds on favourite
On the back of the race history here
Much as he probably will take this

Going with a different strategy

FURY ROAD is a 7 year old
He comes from the best trial

Welsh National Day

Neville Hotels Grade 1 chase (3m)
Has been a key indicator here
Horses that ran in this Grade 1
And who then ran in this race
Provided the following winners
2011 2012 2015 2017 2018 2021

Horses aged 6-7-8
Who ran in that race
Beaten under 20 lengths
Having 2 or more runs that year
Have an excellent 8-22 record
FURY ROAD has this profile

Not sure if he is good enough
Or whether a place is the limit
Of what we can expect in this
But I am split staking the race 

Selection

£2.00 Win Bet FURY ROAD 10/1

£8.00 Place Bet FURY ROAD 6/4

Leopardstown 1.50

10/11 Chacun Pour Soi, 5/2 Greaneteen
9/2 Captain Guinness, 16/1 Cash Back
16/1 Dunvegan.

Dublin Chase

Grade 1 Chase (2m 1f)

CHACUN POUR SOI

Clear on official ratings
Expected to win at odds on
Not many dissenters about
Most think he is a good thing

He probably is

If there is a glimmer of doubt
Could be relevant in this angle

Go back to 2006
Every Grade 1 chase
Run over 2m 4f or shorter
Horses aged 10 or more
Absent 7 or more weeks
Have a 1-48 record in them
CHACUN POUR SOI tries this

Only horse to do that
Sprinter Sacre in 2016

If you want to go back further
Then high class Moscow Flyer 
Was the only other to manage it

CHACUN POUR SOI is a 10yo
And he has a 67 day absence
So not rushing in at odds on

Not that there are safe options
And he only has 4 opponents

GREANETEEN is an option
But the Paul Nicholls horses
Are still running below form

CAPTAIN GUINESS

He is the youngest
Going to give him a chance
Has some very smart runs
Has not done much wrong

Not confident
But 7/1 and 1/4 a place 1-2
He is probably the value bet
And we can afford a saver

Selection

£4.00 Each Way CAPTAIN GUINESS 7/1

£2.00 Win Bet GRENATEEN 4/1-9/2

1/4 Odds (2 Places)




Leopardstown 2.25

9/2 Blackbow, 6/1 Birchdale, 8/1 Max Flamingo
8/1 The Shunter, 10/1 Fakir D'alene, Gallant John Joe
12/1 Spyglass Hill, 14/1 Ten Ten, 16/1 Definite Plan
16/1 Minella Times, 16/1 Rebel Gold, 20/1 Annamix, 
20/1 Fan De Blues, 20/1 Mortal, 20/1 Samcro
20/1 Winter Escape, 25/1 Foxy Jacks.
 
Handicap Chase 2m 5f
  
The past 10 winners
Had these chase runs
7 5 5 6 4 10 9 10 4 10  
 
All had under 11 chase runs
Those with more are 0-58

Makes sense to follow this
Rather than exposed types

MINELLA TIMES fails this
Last years National winner
Topweight and underraced

Other horses fail this

20/1 Mortal
20/1 Samcro
20/1 Winter Escape
25/1 Foxy Jacks
14/1 Ten Ten
12/1 Spyglass Hill
20/1 Annamix


Horses aged 10 or more
Have a 1-50 record in this
DEFINITE PLAN is a 10yo
Avoiding him off 77 days

BLACKBOW has 11st 9lbs
Higher weight than the rest
Higher than all past winners
Not a negative on that alone
He's raced once in 13 months

Past winners
Had these runs that season
3 7 4 1 4 3 3 6 4 3 3 

Most winners of this race
Had at least 3 runs this season
BLACKBOW has not had that

Most recent winners
Ran within the last 6 weeks
THE SHUNTER has 193 days off
Rejected with a big weight as well

FAN DE BLUES looks exposed
He is stepping up from 2m 1f
Since the 2009 renewal
Every winner came from 2m 3f +
FAN DE BLUES fails this statistic

GALANT JOHN JOE is a 9yo
He's had 2 runs since 658 days off
Both heavy defeats in Graded races
Not shown enough on either start


Shortlist

BIRCHDALE

Has to be on the shortlist
Comes from the best trial race
The Paddy Power Handicap
Run here just after Christmas
The 2013 2015 2016 winner
Came from the same race
I do have some problems
He's raced once in 133 days
That just looks underraced
And he has a 7lbs claimer
Whose chase record is 0-42
Never ridden a chase winner
And 4lbs out of the handicap

REBEL GOLD

He does have positives
Career best last time out
New trainer son of a legend
Should not be a problem

FAKIR D'ALENE

He is on a hat trick
But has had just 3 chase runs 
Past  winners of this race
Had 7 5 5 6 4 10 9 10 4 10 chases
None were as inexperienced 
But he could have momentum

MAX FLAMINGO

He is a 7yo
Hard to read but the 2017 winner
Came from the same Graded novice
Had a very similar profile as well

Going to have to guess here

Selection

£3.50 Each Way REBEL GOLD 12/1 1

£1.50 Win Bet MAX FLAMINGO 6/1

£1.50 Win Bet FAKIR D'ALENE 7/1


  
Leopardstown 4.10

5/1 Cask Mate, 7/1 Carrarea, 8/1 Get My Drift
10/1 Arcadian Sunrise, 12/1 Autumn Evening
12/1 Champagne Gold, Gua Du Large, 14/1 Eskylane
14/1 Magic Tricks, Sea Ducor, 14/1 Suprise Package, 
14/1 Wouldn't You Agree, 16/1 Broomfields Jeremy
16/1 Mighty Tom, 20/1 Ballyadam, 20/1 Coltor
20/1 Visionarian, 25/1 Fastorslow, Hes A Hardy Bloke
25/1 In From The Cold, Lucky Max, 33/1 Call Me Lyreen
33/1 Drop The Anchor, 33/1 Snugsborough Hall
50/1 Charli Parcs, 50/1 Eclair De Beaufeu, Zoffanien
100/1 Future Proof.

2m Handicap Hurdle

Dozens of runners

Best we can do here
Throw some angles at it
See what we are left with
  
Since 2013

Past winners hurdle runs
13 10 8 5 5 11 7 3 9 6 3 8
Horse with over 13 hurdles
Have a 0-40 record in this
Takes out the following

Charlie Stout
Snugsborough Hall 
Drop The Anchor
Future Proof 
Eclair De Beaufeu 

Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 0-55 record since 2013
Takes out these runners

Wouldn't You Agree
Eskylane
Cask Mate 
Charli Parcs 
Arcadian Sunrise 

Highest weighted winner
Won carrying 11st 5lbs
Takes out these runners
Ballyadam  
Arcadian Sunrise 
Eskylane
Drop The Anchor
Magic Tricks

Horses aged 5
Have a 1-38 record in this
Going to oppose these 5yo's
Autumn Evening
In From The Cold 
Carrarea
Visionarian
Coltor

Horses absent over 62 days
Have a 0-53 record in this race
Takes out these runners

Broomfields Jeremy
Champagne Gold
Clarens
Gua Du Large
Hes A Hardy Bloke
Magic Tricks

Horses beaten 16 + lengths
On their last run are 0-58
Several already rejected fail this
So do the following horses

Sea Ducor 
Fastorslow
Call Me Lyreen
Lucky Max

Opposing the underraced
And a few other angles here
Lead me to just two horses

GET MY DRIFT
SURPRISE PACKAGE 

Selection

£2.50 Each Way SURPRISE PACKAGE 16/1-18/1

£2.50 Each Way  GET MY DRIFT 12/1-11/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6

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