3 Previews
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Preview Selections
 
Wolverhampton 1.10 
£3.00 Each Way Last Mission 12/1-14/1
£4.00 Place Bet Pope Gregory 5/4

Lingfield 3.00
£6.00 Win Bet Taqseemaat 11/2-5/1
£4.00 Place Bet Gearing's Point 6/4

Lingfield 3.30
Surrey Territories 11/1-12/1 
Each Way






Message Choice

Lingfield 3.30
 
SURREY TERRITORIES  11/1-12/1 

Each Way   




Today's Message 


Feeling a bit better today
Hope I've turned a corner

Friday to Sunday this week
Offers some brilliant racing
On schedule for these days
Hopefully normal messages
 
Today is a strange mix



With better cards

I'd have done a lot better

Every code represented

Most of it in smaller fields

Settled on 3 races only

Including 2 big priced bets

Making this my best bet


Message Choice

Lingfield 3.30
 
SURREY TERRITORIES  11/1-12/1 

Each Way   






Underneath The Message    


Haven't been too interested
In betting in the last few days
Just been trying to get better

Wolverhampton 1.10

For me this is a "not convinced
But don't want to miss out bet"

£6 Win Bet Last Mission 12/1-16/1

Lingfield 3.00

Like my staking
But not going to bother myself


Lingfield 3.30

SURREY TERRITORIES  11/1-12/1 

Best bet
 
Can't decide if this is a diamond
Or whether I am fooling myself
But happy to bet her at the odds

Probably mix it up
Depending on available odds

Non runners could be in play
But want to break level on him
If he manages to finish 1-2-3

£22 Win at 10/1 or more
£8 to Place around 2/1 +

That's the sort of range






Yesterday's Summary

Mixed results from 5 previews
Which finished up W L W L L 
We had 2 good solid winners
Ensured a level stake profit
But was that a good message
Probably not for other reasons
Persian Wold the best bet lost
Memo to myself as a reminder
Late night bets softer ground
With significant non runners
Do not try to predict the draw 
Shoebox King in a split stake 
Could have been staked safer
Going for a win and place bet
But so can every bet you have
Midnight Toker finished 2nd
Liked him personally each way
Not everybody cares for that
Felt it was a reasonable effort
Given equine flu was in play 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Wolverhampton 1.10

 9/4 English Spirit, 9/2 Power On, 6/1 Pope Gregory
7/1 Pink Jazz, 8/1 Odd Socks Havana, 10/1 Mighty Fine
12/1 Last Mission, Nine Elms, 16/1 Elusive Artist
16/1 Well Prepared, 33/1 Makyon, 40/1 Sea Fern.
 
8f Handicap

Extended mile

ENGLISH SPIRIT a 4yo

Has a 0-4 record over this trip
His last 3 defeats 11/8 11/8 11/10
They were over softer mile trips
Far from convinced he stays 8f
At least an extended 8f like this
It could easily find him out here
If Stall causes him difficulties
And he is short enough anyway

Ratings and numbers suggest
There might be a class cut off
The bottom 5 weights lack class
None of them rated beyond 50
None offer us enticing profiles
Opposing these 5 horses

MAKYON
SEA FERN
WELL PREPARED
ELUSIVE ARTIST
NINE ELMS

PINK JAZZ has 92 days off
Can't commit when so exposed
And running for a new trainer

OLD SOCKS HAVANA is a 4yo
In form and can win off his mark
Stall 12 could be his problem
This is a cobbled together stat

Go back to 2008
Wolverhampton 8f races
Horses aged 4
Over 17 career runs
Absent over 9 days
Horses drawn 12 or more
Have a 0-25 record 
OLD SOCKS HAVANA fails this

POWER ON just survives this
He is a 4yo and drawn in stall 11
Not keen he comes from 7f

Go back to 2008
April May June 
Wolverhampton 
Class 6 handicaps (8f)
Horses aged 4
Coming from 7f races
More than 8 career starts
Running within 2 months
Have a 0-39 record in them
POWER ON shares this profile
Just 1 run in the last 71 days
Few things I dislike about him

MIGHTY FINE is a 4yo filly
Weak profile up in distance

POPE GREGORY is a positive
Can match him to a winner
Has a stronger jockey today

LAST MISSION is a 4yo
Topweight but unexposed
See him as a positive in this
 
Selection

£3.00 Each Way LAST MISSION 12/1-14/1

£4.00 Place Bet POPE GREGORY 5/4






Lingfield 3.00

5/4 Tibbie Dunbar, 7/2 Henry The Fifth
11/2 Taqseemaat, 13/2 Gearing's Point
12/1 Spirit Of Jacob, 16/1 Far Too Beautiful
20/1 Laetoli, 25/1 Infinite Beauty.

Handicap 1m 6f

Staying handicap

TIBBIE DUNBAR an older mare
Has raced just once in months

Go back to 2008
May 
Handicaps over 12f +
Run in Class 6 
Mares aged 6 or more
Over 11 career starts
Just 1 run this year
Have a 0-32 record in them
TIBBIE DUNBAR fails this

Go back to 2008
May 
Handicaps over 7f +
Run in Class 6 
Mares aged 6 or more
Over 11 career starts
Just 1 run this year
Absent over 23 days
Have a 0-38 record in them 
TIBBIE DUNBAR fails this

Given she is an older mare
Potentially underraced as well
Having topweight to carry too
Going to look elsewhere
 
GEARINGS POINT is a mare
Has a radical step up in distance
SPIRIT OF JACOB another mare
Looks inexperienced with 3 runs
FAR TOO BEAUTIFUL a 4yo filly
Has not got a fit enough profile 

TAQSEEMAAT is a positive
Had a poor run (injured) last time
Has he lost momentum after it
HENRY THE FIFTY is a positive
But was he flattered last time
GEARINGS POINT whilst unsafe
Has a better chance off 40 days
Could easily split stake the race
TAQSEEMAAT each way appeals
But decided win and place best

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet TAQSEEMAAT 11/2-5/1

£4.00 Place Bet GEARINGS POINT 6/4






Lingfield 3.30

 5/2 Say Grace, 7/2 Wallaroo, 4/1 Spirit Of Cimarron
6/1 History Writer, 7/1 Seventh Kingdom
12/1 Mild Reflection, 12/1 Surrey Territories
16/1 Paracelsus.

7f Claimer

Fascinating race

Some are unacceptable

But when you look at others

You question your decision
Are begin to like negatives

The inexperienced

WALLAROO has 2 runs
PARACELSUS has 1 run
Both statistical negatives
Both Inexperienced horses 
Not a good mix in a claimer
Win lose of draw not for me

The incapable certainties

HISTORY WRITER
SEVENTH KINGDOM

Different class to these
Agree with the Racing Post
They are "certainties" at their best
Both are running so badly though
They are hardly beating any rivals
Maybe dropping down in class
Will allow then to manage better
But anyones guess if that happens

SPIRIT OF KINGDOM has a chance
Almost made him my selection here
Despite coming from a terrible yard

SAY GRACE could easily win
Statistically a 3yo filly off 107 days
Would be one I would be opposing
But the opposition is so poor
I can see how she might win
She is not my choice though

MILD REFLECTION is a filly
She has been quietly backed 
Good chance on her 2yo form
Do not see enough this season
Not for me she may still win it

SURREY TERRITORIES

Not the type I'd normally like
Down from 9f to 7f unorthodox
He is a cheap racing club type
Sold only last year for just 2k
Has 47 days off the track too

I want to risk him

Partly the price
Partly negatives for others

But mainly his stamina
If he does not stay 8f or more
Then he has valid excuses
For all of his recent races
There is a case 8f stretches him
His form is better than it looks

He is a fun syndicate horse
But around 12/1+ against these
Feel he is worth a small bet


Selection
 
SURREY TERRITORIES  11/1-12/1 

Each Way

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