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Today's Message



No Message tomorrow

Got a hospital commitment
Scheduled a day off for this
 
  
3 Fixtures

Lingfield has passed an inspection
The track is currently being worked
By the Salford Ducksfoot Cultivator
Whatever the hell that might be

Wolverhampton has a night fixture
Currently under snow inspect later

Yellow weather warnings in place
Whatever that might mean for us
At the mercy of horrible conditions

Been a very disruptive weekend
No signs of that changing just yet
So expecting the unexpected today
Hoping we come out of it ahead

No strong preference for a best bet

More a day to play around with

Forced to nominate would be this


Today's Best Bet

Lingfield 11.42

MAY REMAIN 5/1 

Each Way

(All 8 must run)









Preview Selections 

Lingfield 11.42
May Remain 5/1 
Each Way

Lingfield 12.12
£7.00 Win Shikhova 2/1
£3.00 Win Bet Vasilissa 9/4

Dundalk 2.45  
£5.00 Win Bet Ameerat Jumaira 8/1  
£5.00 Win Bet Den Of Iniquity 10/11
 
Dundalk 3.45
Zentopia 5/1 
Each Way 

Dundalk 4.15 
£8.00 Win Bet Cyclamen 4/1-7/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Selador  4/1+






Underneath the message


Lingfield 11.42
May Remain 5/1-11/2
Each Way

Solid chance
Staking worries me
Hope he is not a sitting duck
To classier types mowing him down
Tempted with a win bet and place bet
But was not sure which horse to place
As there are 8 runners going e/way


Lingfield 12.12
£7.00 Win Shikhova 2/1
£3.00 Win Bet Vasilissa 9/4

Too short for the best bet
And can not split this pair
If you gave me a free bet
I'd bet the biggest price
Of this pair each way 9/4 +


Dundalk 2.45  
£5.00 Win Bet Ameerat Jumaira 8/1  
£5.00 Win Bet Den Of Iniquity 1/1

Like the favourite
My statistics dont
So compromised here
Betting in the dark to win


 
Dundalk 3.45
Zentopia 5/1 
Each Way 

Not often I go with his type
Against more experienced
Hoping Ive called this right





Dundalk 4.15 
£8.00 Win Bet Cyclamen 4/1-7/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Selador  4/1+

Like both but given a choice
I'd rather one was a non runner
And bet the other one each way
Race has trainer trust issues 
This pair Aidan and Joseph's
Both must be desperate to win

 



Yesterday's Summary

Not much to say about Sunday
We were left with just 2 previews
Both horses in the first didn't run
Shame as the odds on favourite
A negative was beaten at odds on
Nothing back from the Cork race
Could have been if staked better
Couldbeaweapon second in finale
An unsuccessful and disruptive day
 
  

 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS 



Lingfield 11.42

4/1 Kath's Toyboy, 6/1 Calonne, 6/1 Mumayaz
7/1 May Remain, 8/1 Brazen Diamond
8/1 Luna Queen, Praise Of Shadows
14/1 Cappananty Con
 
7f Handicap
 
From these 8 runners 

Half have short absences

Breaks of 4 6 3 11 days

The other half of the field
Have been off much longer

Instinct says stay with those
Who have the recent races
PRAISE OF SHADOWS has
But the lowest rated of those

KATHYS TOYBOY could win
If stall 1 does not bother him

Lingfield 7f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
With 9 or more runners
Horses drawn in stall 1
Since 2021 they are 0-41
Since 2000 they are 1-61

Several have won before 
Stall 1 is on a bad current run
It is an unwelcome problem
Although non runners do help 
  
LUNA QUEEN is a 3yo
Pulled up only 4 days ago
Only because of jockey injury
From rearing up in the stalls
Badly drawn on previous start
She should have a fair chance

Similar races show
Fillies aged 3
Over 12 career starts
Have a modest 2-78 record
LUNA QUEEN has this profile
Those with 9st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-25 record in them
LUNA QUEEN fails 9st 9lbs
Still more positive than not
Especially as 2 have come out

MAY REMAIN ran 3 days ago
Looks to be running into form
Watching his last race suggests
He went off too quickly there

MUMAYAZ who has 87 days off
Should be one of the big threats
Has more class than most rivals
Going with fitness and momentum

Selection

MAY REMAIN 5/1-11/2

Each Way






Lingfield 12.12

9/4 Shikhova, 3/1 Samba Lady, 4/1 Vasilissa
6/1 Molly Valentine, 10/1 Must Catch Up, Secret Contact
20/1 Heartlander, 50/1 Selina's Star.

2yo Fillies Maiden (6f)

May just be 3-4 with chances
MUST CATCH UP may need it
From a slow starting stable
SECRET CONTACT has 1 run
Needed to see more from her
MOLLY VALENTINE has 2 runs
She's not been seen in 171 days
Could be here for handicap mark
There are far more likely winners

SHIKHOVA looks dangerous
Despite just 1 run back in May

SAMBA DANCER a similar profile
No reason why she can not win
But her main rivals are top stables
And I would see her as third choice

VASILISSA has raced once
Started 13/2 in a Newbury maiden
No chance drawn in stall 18 there
Could improve significantly here

Going with the big stables

VASILISSA returns our stakes

SHIKHOVA becomes 11/10
 
Selection

£7.00 Win SHIKHOVA 2/1

£3.00 Win Bet VASILISSA 9/4
  






Dundalk 2.45

7/4 Den Of Iniquity, 4/1 Twentynine Palms
5/1 Zurana, 8/1 Cooler, 9/1 Timeless Piece
10/1 Ameerat Jumaira, 12/1 La Tulipe Noire
20/1 Cherry Pink, 40/1 Below Deck
66/1 Annalee Lass.

Fillies Maiden (8f)

2 year olds

DEN OF INIQUITY has 1 run
Made her a negative that day
Unraced and drawn in stall 1
She should improve a lot here

LA TULIPE NOIRE behind her
Was beaten getting weight too
Needs to improve at this distance
May well do and excuses last time
Stuck on the outside of the field

Several of these offer questions
TWENTYNINETIMES PALMS one  
Not sure he will stay 8f first time

COOLER has raced once before
She will need to improve to win it
Danger she is being handicapped

ZURANA is handicapped rated 73
Her figures suggest that's a bit high
She is another needing to improve

DEN OF INIQUITY

Thought she would win this
But she is a very short price 
Any there is a curve ball
My angles report this statistic

Go back to 2007
December
2yo Fillies maidens (8f)
Horses with 1 career start
Coming from 7f or shorter
Running within 4 months
Have a 0-55 record
The following horses fail this

DEN OF INIQUITY
COOLER

Surprised by that and this

Go back to 2007
November and December
2yo Fillies maidens (8f)
Horses with 1 career start
Coming from 7f or shorter
Running within 21 days
Have a 0-42 record in them
DEN OF INIQUITY fails this

My angles are suggesting
She may not be bomb proof here
Still think she may be good enough
But because of the above angles
Going to split stake the race instead
AMEERAT JUMAIRA should improve
From a good badly drawn debut run
Expensive type not beaten too far

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet AMEERAT JUMAIRA 8/1 

£5.00 Win Bet DEN OF INIQUITY 10/11







Dundalk 3.45

2/1 Doctor Grace, 3/1 Fendi, 6/1 Zentopia
13/2 Scat Maggie, 12/1 Press Play, Rossmore Nation
14/1Okyle Lass, 16/1 Liberated Girl, 20/1 Reigles.

Nursery 8f

The bottom 3 in the weights
All of these rated only 47
Look a bit marooned here
Every other horse in the race
Has a rating of 52 or higher 
Suspect these may lack class

SCAT MAGGIE
PRESS PLAY
OKYLE LASS

LIBERATED GIRL is topweight
She didn't do much 5 days ago
Coming back after a 156 day break
She will do well to take this race

Two horses come from a claimer

ROSSMORE NATION
REIGLES

Horses can win nurseries doing this
But what puts me off both of these
They had light weights in claimers
Connections happy to sell cheaply

ZENTOPIA has 3 runs
Decent stable and overall positive
Had the widest draw last time out
Main worry others more experienced
And can not be sure he stays a mile
If he does he could outclass these

DOCTOR GRACE 2nd last time out
FENDI right behind him in 3rd place
Both serious chances if they stay 8f
FENDI looks a bit exposed 10 races
When his best figures are very modest

Selection

ZENTOPIA 5/1

Each Way






Dundalk 4.15

5/2 Vadiana, 11/4 Lizzy's Filly, 9/2 Selador
7/1 Cyclamen, 8/1 Oh Cleo, 9/1 Solar Breeze
20/1 Eyela, 25/1 Hello Possible, 33/1 Miss Upbeat
40/1 Silent Vigil, 100/1 Theresathought.

3yo Fillies Maiden (8f)

Have to make assumptions
With plenty we do not know
VADIANA steps up 2 furlongs
Too unsafe and dodgy draw 
LIZZY'S FILLY has some form
But exposed with an absence
And hard to argue is progressive
SOLAR BREEZE is also similar
Quite exposed with an absence
OH CLEO has a weak profile
Beaten too far just 9 days ago

SELADOR - Joseph

CYCLAMEN - Aidan

Both were expensive types
Both have spent many races
Trying to find their best trips
SELADOR as an example
Had no business over 1m 2f
When so early in his career

Could bet either each way
Hard to stake with a saver bet
Especially in a weak market 
Going for a win bet and saver
But this could be made safer

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet CYCLAMEN 4/1-7/2

£2.00 Win Bet  SELADOR 4/1-7/2
 
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