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Today's Message
 
Backing off a little today

Messages all next week 
Finishing off next Sunday
  
The next 15 days offer us

Irish National
English National
Scottish National

Irish national is tomorrow 
Will be covering the race 
In a Bank Holiday message


Main strategy today

Slow it down and reposition

For a Bank Holiday Monday

Need to unscramble a little



Today's Best Bet

None



If I could pick 2 races out
They would be these two


Cork 1.10
LUMINOUS LIGHT 6/1
Each Way

Fairyhouse 2.35
ASHROE DIAMOND 9/4-5/2
Win Bet




My Personal Favourite  

Ashroe Diamond 5/2

Each Way

She is a win bet in previews

But I am betting her each way 

You can get 4 places as well

That is quite a generous offer

And will be my main bet today
 
Not able to Make this official

Only some firms offer 1-2-3

Would be a hard bet to get on

But would rather bet tomorrow






Preview Selections


Cork 1.10
Luminous Light 6/1
Each Way
 
Fairyhouse 1.25 
£5.00 Win Bet Ideal Du Tabert 6/1
£5.00 Place Bet Classic Lord 10/11-1/1

Cork 2.20
Fils D'oudairies 100/30-7/2
Each Way

Fairyhouse 2.35
Ashroe Diamond 5/2
Win Bet
 
Cork 4.05 
L'yser 3/1
Win Bet

 
  


Yesterday's Summary

Eventful and controversial day
The account bet was the loser
Monbeg Park our saver bet won
But was disqualified in an enquiry
No idea if that was right or wrong
But it was a bit stomach churning
Hey Johnny was running nicely
But he got found out in the class
Delighted to see a saver winning
But that was taken away from us
Got off to an annoyingly bad start
Only included the first preview in
As there were a lack of soft races 
But made a mess and it backfired
Spirit Mixer drifted and wasn't fit
That was why I didn't go each way
Not having a saver was a mistake
Every chance it was on the winner 
Sam's Choice clearly wasn't ready
Both the preview and race horrible
Magnanimous Mehmus ran great
Finished strongly and got placed
Got the Musselburgh sprint wrong
It is a bermuda triangle of a race
The first 4 home drawn 14 8 12 13
Showed the high draws had it best
Our selections were middle lower
Dun Na Sead ran well got his place


Overall the message lacked punch
In fact the only punch to get landed
Was on us in the stewards enquiry
The horse saving the account bet
Then lost the race for interference

 








PROFILES & PREVIEWS 



 
Cork 1.10

9/4 Samadabad, 5/2 Mighty Mo Missouri, 3/1 Calico
9/2 Luminous Light, 12/1 Montys Rock, 25/1 Yeats Star
33/1 Blue Reed, Inchiquin Star, My Second Chance
50/1 Sea The Sunset, 66/1 Alittlebitofrita, Boxcar Molly
66/1 Chilled Out, 100/1 Bowgate Street, Vector Belle
150/1 Gimmeago.

Maiden Hurdle 4yo

Lots of side issues in this

Should be between 4 horses
 
MIGHTY MO MISSOURI
Beaten 30 lengths last time
In a Cheltenham Handicap
Last years winner ran there
But that horse did a lot better
He has lost some momentum
 
SAMADABAD will be a threat
But just 1 run now in 311 days
Could put him at a disadvantage

CALICO is a filly
She is winless in 11 starts now
Moe exposed than any winners
Of similar races not progressive

LUMINOUS LIGHT

He's met Calico 3 times now 
Finished behind her every time
But he is getting closer each time
Only a couple of lengths last time
And that was racing on heavy
He could reverse the form today
Felt he was a reasonable option
Each Way in a race involving 4
All of whom can be criticised

Selection

LUMINOUS LIGHT 6/1

Each Way







Fairyhouse 1.25

7/2 Sign From Above, 9/2 Classic Lord, Valsorpresa
7/1 Ideal Du Tabert, 12/1 Attaboyarchie, Dutch Schultz
12/1 I Am Fortunata, Run For Harry, 12/1 Sam Magee
14/1 Stellium, 16/1 Golf Marin, 20/1 Dame Rapide
25/1 Waterford Whispers, 33/1 O'Hallorans Castle
33/1  Set Point, Striking, 66/1 Macanogue, Mille Miglia
66/1  Presenting Beeper, 100/1 Coco Kolada
100/1 Mighty Oak Lad.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Complicated race

Strength in depth

Several quality stables
Run more than 1 horse

Looking for a horse
That ticks most boxes
Such as acceptable figures
VALSORPRESA offers that
But just 1 career start a worry
In a big field full of experience
That could make him vulnerable
 
SIGN FROM ABOVE is a 5yo
Average on the flat in 5 races
His one and only hurdle race
Was 104 days ago in a 4yo race
Started 100/1 against his age
Would not have him as favourite
Much as he is a nice prospect

IDEAL DU TABERT a positive
Could easily be selected here

CLASSIC LORD could be too

My hunch in this race
Try to stay with Nat Hunt types
Rather than ex flat race horses

Feel a split stake is suitable

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet IDEAL DU TABERT 6/1

£5.00 Place Bet CLASSIC LORD 10/11-1/1







Cork 2.20

13/8 Mister Policeman, 5/2 Fils D'oudairies
9/2 Sole Pretender, 5/1 Cash Back, 7/1 Cask Mate
25/1 Djingle, 33/1 Clarens, 100/1 Patience Patience.

Hurdle race

SOLE PRETENDER 

Won the race last year
But has been chasing this year
Would not be my first choice
CASK MATE is 10 years old
He faces 163 days absence
CASH BACK is 11 years old
Felt there were safer options

MISTER POLICEMAN

Willie Mullins favourite

Last seen in France a year ago
Cost Rich Ricci 120,000 euros
Said to have a turn of foot too

But that is a long absence
Not so bothered by the break
3 of the 4 past winners had one

There are other considerations
Has a lot of stamina in pedigree
And 2 miles here may be short
Nobody will be shocked if he won
But this is far from an easy race

FILS D'OUDAIRIES

Comes of a 153 R.Post Rating
When  winning at Leopardstown
Thats setting a high benchmark
Would rather bet him each way

Selection

FILS D'OUDAIRIES 100/30-7/2

Each Way






Fairyhouse 2.35

3/1 Magical Zoe, 100/30 Ashroe Diamond, 6/1 Eabha Grace
15/2 Halka Du Tabert, 11/1 Hauturiere, 12/1 Harmonya Maker
12/1  Princess Zoe, 14/1 Jetara, Nikini, Shecouldbeanything
20/1 Got Glory, Lot Of Joy, Night And Day, 22/1 Rioga Choice
33/1 Whatcouldhavebeen, 66/1 Pink In The Park.

Mares Novice Hurdle

Grade 1

Willie Mullins runs several
All the big stables are here

NIGHT AND DAY is risky
Having raced once in a year
And going up 4f in distance

PRINCESS ZOE is an 8yo
She ran well at Cheltenham 
But the age is not really ideal

MAGICAL ZOE is a threat
But she is one of the youngest
And has raced once in 156 days

ASHROE DIAMOND

Like her prospects best
Missed Cheltenham last time
Comes from the Solerina Hurdle
Last years winner did the same
Looks laid out for this race

Selection

ASHROE DIAMOND 5/2

Win Bet






Cork 4.05

4/1 Lucky Max, 5/1 Flying Scotsman, 11/2 L'yser
13/2 Spillane's Tower, 8/1 Prairie Dancer, 10/1 Heliko Conti
10/1 Rebel Ivy, 12/1 Bois De Clamart, 14/1 West Cork Wildway
16/1 Blanketontheground, 20/1 The Very Man
20/1 Watch The Weather, 25/1 Garrybello
33/1 Legacy Thor.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

Tidy race with 13 year history

Against older exposed horses

Horses aged 9 or more are 0-33

Horses with 20 or more races
Have a 0-22 record in the race

Horses with 16 or more hurdles
When absent more than 9 days
Have a 0-44 record in the past

The following horses 
Fail one or more of these angles

LEGACY THOR
BLANKONTHEGROUND
WEST CORK WILDWAY
LUCKY MAX
THE VERY MAN
BOIS DE CLAMART
PRARIE DANCER
FLYING SCOTSMAN
 
FLYING SCOTSMAN a 6yo
Could be forgiven his failings
But just 1 run in 127 days now
Needed a safer profile really
 
Horses absent over 3 months
Have a 0-34 record in this race
WATCH THE WEATHER fails this

5 year olds underperformed
Have a modest 1-26 record
That was a last time winner
Who only had 4 career runs
PRARIE DANCER is a 5yo
Very exposed not any match

GARRYYBELLO a 5 year old
Doesn't have enough positives

SPILLANE'S TOWER a 5yo
He has had only 3 career runs
The 2018 winner had the same
But he was 2 years older (7yo)
SPILLANE'S TOWER feels raw
With just 1 run in 160 days now

REBEL IVY survives my angles
But an 8yo mare falling last time
Hardly an ideal preparation

HELIKO CONTI rated 116
Has to show he has the class

L'YSER a 6yo 

Lightly raced and progressive
Looks the pick of the unexposed

Selection

L'YSER 3/1

Win Bet







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 



Premier League

4.30pm Kick off

Liverpool v Arsenal

Big test for Arsenal today
Gut feeling they will pass it
At least by avoiding defeat
If I was having a bet in this
Would be a novelty market

Draw No Bet Market

Arsenal 1.94 (Betfair)

Win Bet






US Masters Golf
 
Been delayed by the weather
Some still playing third round
They have to get it done today
And get their last round in too

Turned into a 2 player masters

10/11 Brooks Koepka -13

15/8  Jon Rahm -9

Every other player is 40/1 +
My Golf man has this right
Both of the market leaders 
Were on his shortlist for this
 
Did hope to have an interest
But have no edge to go with

Did cross my mind

If you left a bet on Betfair

Trying to bet both players at 3/1

You could get them both matched 
There should be twists and turns
You'd get 1/1 if either player won




Aintree

Starts Thursday

Generic Statistics

Should be in Tuesday's message



The week's target race is obvious

Saturday April 15th

Aintree 5.15pm

Randox Grand National

7/1 Corach Rambler, 8/1 Noble Yeats
12/1 Delta Work 14/1 Gaillard Du Mesnil
14/1 Any Second Now 14/1 Mr Incredible 
16/1 Longhouse Poet, 20/1 Galvin, 20/1 Le Milos
25/1 Remastered 25/1 Capodanno, 25/1 Ain't That A Shame
25/1 Vanillier, 25/1 The Big Dog 33/1 Happygolucky
33/1 Ga Law, 33/1 Conflated, 33/1 Lifetime Ambition
33/1 Quick Wave, 33/1 Our Power, 40/1 Pencilfulloflead
40/1 Coko Beach 40/1 Lord Lariat, 40/1 Royale Pagaille
40/1  Velvet Elvis, 50/1 Threeunderthrufive 50/1 Ashtown Lad
50/1 Carefully Selected, Envoi Allen, 50/1 Franco De Port
50/1 The Shunter, 50/1 The Big Breakaway, Roi Mage
50/1 Dunboyne  66/1 Death Duty, 66/1 Farclas
 
Not done much since last looked 
Horses at the top of the market 
Just look wrong and vulnerable

There are reports in the media
We may not get a complete field
Not enough runners in the race

LONGHOUSE POET

Provisional selection

May not be the final bet

He is trading around 25/1

The popular narrative with him

"Didn't stay last year why will he now ?"

Feel that is nonsense myself
Finished with an excellent 6th 
On the back of just 5 chase runs
It was not stamina that beat him
Think it was a lack of experience 

Waiting for Tuesdays update

Will cover this from wednesday

Aintree will get full coverage

Including the Topham handicap

Statistics for that race below


 
Ante Post Statistics


Friday April 14th

Aintree 4.05

Topham Chase
 
9/1 Gesskille, 10/1 Ashtown Lad, 10/1 Al Dancer
12/1 Haut En Couleurs, 14/1 Burrows Saint, 14/1 Ciel De Neige
14/1 Final Orders, 14/1 Statuario, 14/1 Now Where Or When
14/1 Cooper's Cross, 16/1 Il Ridoto, 16/1 Upping The Anti
16/1 Phoenix Way, 16/1 Batcio, 16/1 El Barra, 16/1 Gevrey
16/1 Royal Rendevous, 20/1 Francky Du Berlais, 20/1 Bill Baxter
20/1 Escaria Ten, 20/1 Equus Dancer, 20/1 Royal Rendezvous
25/1 Lieutenant Command, 25/1 Killer Kane, 25/1 Epson Du Houx
25/1 Harper's Brook, 25/1 Fan De Blues, 25/1 Gold Cup Bailly
25/1 Quel Destin, 25/1 Fantastic Lady, 25/1 Caribean Boy
25/1 Riders On the Storm, 25/1 Top Ville Ben, 25/1 Clondaw Castle
25/1 Mister Fisher, 33/1 Percussion, 33/1 Kiltealy Briggs
33/1 Gin On Lime, 33/1 Silver Hallmark, 33/1 Riders Onthe Storm
33/1 Espoir De Guye, 33/1 Handsworth, 33/1 Lieutenant Rocco
33/1 Numitor, 33/1 Zhiguli, 33/1 Celebre D'allen, 33/1 Farceur Du Large
33/1 Eden Du Houx, 33/1 Demachine, 33/1 Fantastikas, 40/1 Dorking Lad
40/1 Presentandcounting, 40/1 Battleoverdoyen, 40/1 Emir Sacree
40/1 Morning Spirit, 40/1 Hereditary Rule, 40/1 Dreams Of Home
50/1 Jacamar, 50/1 Hardline, Precious Eleanor, 66/1 Hurricane Darwin
66/1 Saint D'oroux, 100/1 Fire Away

Topham 

Handicap Chase  2m 5f
 
Past winners
Number of career runs

26 29 14 30 24 35 17 10
6 70 64 57 32 6 21 12

Most were experienced
The last 13 winners
Had 8 or more chase runs
 
Past winners
Number of runs this season
6 4 8 5 5 6 8 6 6 8 4 4 7 8 7 3 6 6 7 6
I want at least 4 runs this season

Horses aged 7
Have a  2-70 record since 2002
These had 12-13 chase runs
They had 12-16 career races
Both had 11st 2lbs or less
And last raced within 23 days

Horses aged under 9
Over 18 career starts
Have a 0-81 record in this

Horses aged 11 or more
Have a 3-81 record in this

Horses aged 12 + are 0-30
 
Past winners
Had the following absences
31 33 18 29 21 21 29 24 90 20
15 20 22 22 10 23 163 29 34 23

18 of the last 20 winners
Ran within the last 34 days
Those that did not were 2-198
Both winners had light weights
Both winners very lightly raced
 
Horses aged 7-8-9
Absent more than 34 days
Have a 0-115 record in this race

Horses from 2m 3f or shorter
Have won 3 of the last 5 renewals
They spent many years not winning
But have done better in recent years

Horses from 2m 3f or shorter
Absent more than 3 weeks
Have a 0-79 record in the race

Horses from 2m 3f or shorter
Coming from Class 2 or lower
Have a 0-70 record since 1998

Horses from 3m 2f or more
Have a 0-53 record in this race

No winner came from a Novice
All 26 that tried were beaten

Last years winner from Class 3
Broken a 7 year record of horses
Coming from listed/graded races

Horses from Class 2 or lower
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-56 record in this race
  
Horses with 11st 10lbs
Last won this race in 1995
Since them all 40 tried and failed
 
Horses with 11st 3lbs and more
Won only 3 of the last 20 renewals
All 3 came from a Cheltenham handicap

Horses from Grade 1-2 Chases
Have a 1-37 record that was 2019
    
Last time out winners struggle
The 2003 winner managed it
But in the 20 years since then
All 56 last time winners failed 
 
Past renewals since 2002
Show horses with just 1 run
In the previous 125 days
Have a poor 0-101 record in this
 
Horses aged 7-8-9
Running on softer ground
Have a 1-66 record in the race 

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