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Today's Message  

  
Shorter Sunday message 
Just having a bit of down time
Recovering from Cheltenham
Not pressing too hard today


Not sure about Tuesday yet
Message if I find something
Failing that could drop a day


Only 2 previews


Not going with a best bet

Could have chosen this


Carlisle 4.45

£8.00 Win Bet Crack Du Ninian 7/2-100/30 

£2.00 Saver Bet Serious Ego 7/2


Explained in Underneath The Message
Feel like a better each way single bet
When you can get 4 places on your side
But can not predict the price well enough
He is short enough anyway each way
So going instead for the split stake bet


No Official Best Bet






Preview Selections
  
Carlisle 3.35  
Lord Du Mesnil 11/4-3/1 
Win Bet
 
Carlisle 4.45
£8.00 Win Bet Crack Du Ninian 7/2-100/30 
£2.00 Saver Bet Serious Ego 7/2






Underneath The Message  


Had  another Grand National bet
Covered in  Future Betting angles

My only bet that runs today
Differs from the official line


Carlisle 4.45

Crack Du Ninian 7/2-100/30 

£20 Each Way 

1-2-3-4 places






Carlisle 3.35  

Lord Du Mesnil 11/4-3/1 

Win Bet

Had more than one option
Could sneak in a saver bet

£7.00 Win Lord Du Mesnil 3/1 
£3.00 Win Ramses De Teille 5/2

Lord Du Mesnil becomes 7/4-15/8
Money back on Ramses De Teille
Thats not too bad an option as well
But the bet stands just a win bet


Carlisle 4.45
£8.00 Win Bet Crack Du Ninian 7/2-100/30 
£2.00 Saver Ber Serious Ego 7/2

Like this race
But the staking is a headache
With a few around 100/30-7/2

Gone with a split stake bet here
Because if my horse shortens
Than it could get very messy

But there are 4 places

Shortlisted only 3 horses

Crack Du Ninian 7/2-100/30 

Looks a better bet each way
With 4 places available for him

That's the bet I would have here
But did not want to advise that
Because the price is unstable






Yesterday's Summary 

Rare for just 3 Saturday previews
Tends to happen post Cheltenham
The best bet of the day got placed
Cahirdown Boy weak in the betting
Did not run as well as I'd expected
But managed to secure the place
That was the least I'd have taken

Messed the Midlands National up
Just not a result I'd have predicted
Sometimes you feel confident in it
This year was not sure I was right
But could not see where or why
The most annoying thing about it
Two of our races were both in play
At the same time as each other
Had to watch two races together

The Bomber Liston finished in 2nd
He ran a superb race out in front
Defied his market expectations too
In a way I am happy with second
We were on him each way anyway
Would have been better if he won
But would have made me look silly
Hard to know whether to back off  
When a horse drifts so alarmingly
I was expecting him be about 11/2
Finishing 2nd spared my blushes
And rewarded anyone on each way
So comfortable with that selection

It was short sparse and toothless
But always the same on that day
Cheltenham sucks a lot of energy 
And hard to raise a gallop after it





PROFILES & PREVIEWS  
    



Carlisle 3.35

5/2 Lord Du Mesnil, 11/4 Ramses De Teillee
9/2 Uncle Alastair, 5/1 Sam's Adventure, 9/1 Niceandeasy
10/1 Fagan, 14/1 Dallas Des Pictons.

Veterans Chase

SAM'S ADVENTURE is an 11yo
Just pulled up in the Eider Chase 
Hard race only 3 weeks ago now
This could come a little too soon
From a race that can leave its mark

Every past winner
Had at least 18 career runs
Had at least 11 chase runs
UNCLE ALASTAIR fails both
Just 6 previous chase races
Just the one run in 112 days
He is not a good enough fit

DALLON DES PICTONS a 10yo
Lost 87 lengths just 15 days ago
That was his first run in 3 months
Difficult to see him taking this

NICEANDEASY ran yesterday
Beaten 22 lengths not enough

FAGAN is a 13 year old now
Has an inexperienced jockey 
You have to right back to 2021
For a run he could win this on

Can shortlist only two

RAMSES DE TEILLEE could win

Fear him looks he the big danger

LORD DU MESNIL is a bit classier
 
He's had just 1 run now in 130 days
But there were 3 winners so similar
The 2016 2020 2021 winners of this
All came here with that sort of profile
His 64 day break is not a problem
With 4 of the last 5 winners of this
Having absences of at least 47 days
His best form is on soft and heavy
Just feel he may have too much class

His record 

Ignoring his old French form

Soft and heavy
Running over 2m 7f or more
Fields of under 10 runners
Stands at 4 wins in 7 races
Finishing 2 2 W W W 2 W 

Selection

LORD DU MESNIL 11/4-3/1

Win Bet







Carlisle 4.45

9/4 Beat Box, 3/1 Crack Du Ninian, 7/2 Big Blue Moon
7/1 Serious Ego, 10/1 Brian's Jet, Lusitanien, 25/1 Celestial Fashion
25/1  For Three, 25/1 Rob Royal, 33/1 Kingofthecotswolds
33/1 Secrets De Famille, 40/1 Pistol.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f


Looks quite competitive
But there is some deadwood

PISTOl is 14 with 337 days off

KINGOFTHECOTSWOLD unsafe
Having not had a race since 2021

SECRETS DE FAMILLE offers little

ROB ROYAL looks underraced

FOR THREE hard to like
Solid for just £1000 this season
Trainer has a 1-132 lifetime record

This is a tough stiff track
Plenty of runners soft ground
Want to oppose inexperience

March
Carlisle Handicap Hurdles
With more than 5 runners
Any class of race
Any distance

Horses with under 21 runs
Under 4 previous hurdle races
Have a 0-27 record in them all
The following horses fail this

BRIAN'S JET
CELESTIAL FASHION
BIG BLUE MOON

January to May
Carlisle 
Handicap Hurdles
With more than 8 runners
Any class of race
Any distance
Horses with under 10 runs
Under 4 previous hurdle races
Return a winless 0-37 record
The following horses fail this

BRIAN'S JET
CELESTIAL FASHION
BIG BLUE MOON

LUSITANIEN has 293 days off
Only rated 79 with a long break
If you look at his trainers record
His runners absent 148+days
Have a winless 0-34 record so far

Feel one of 3 should win

BEAT BOX 100/30-7/2

CRACK DU NINIAN 100/30-7/2

SERIOUS EGO 7/2


BEAT BOX could outclass these
But has a tough weight/absence

CRACK DU NINIAN is back hurdling
10lbs lower than his previous mark
Fit and running well he can win this

SERIOUS EGO oldest on shortlist
Poor strike rate but well treated

Not easy to split these three

Could bet one each way
CRACK DU NINIAN just prefered
But going win and saver instead
Hoping I rejected the right one

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet CRACK DU NINIAN 7/2-100/30

£2.00 Saver Bet SERIOUS EGO 7/2






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES



Target Race

Saturday

Curragh 4.25

Irish Lincolnshire

Excited the flat is back
Looks an intriguing race
One we do very well in

2022 - Saver bet won
2021 - Winner at 12/1
2020- Did not preview it
2019 - Saver bet won


Messages on the flat
Are far better than the jumps
As there is far more choice

Between Monday to Wednesday
During the National Hunt season
Harder to find anything significant

No such problem in the flat season
I have missed it pleased it is back







Ante Post

Saturday April 15th

Aintree 5.15

Randox Grand National 

10/1 Noble Yeats, 16/1 Corach Rambler, 16/1 Gaillard Du Mesnil
18/1 Longhouse Poet, 20/1 Delta Work, 20/1 Any Second Now
25/1 Conflated, 25/1 Galvin, 25/1 Le Milos, 25/1 Lifetime Ambition
25/1 The Big Dog, 33/1 Minella Crooner, 33/1 Mr Incredible
33/1 Ain't That A Shame, 33/1 Hewick, 33/1 Capodanno
40/1 Chemical Energy, 40/1 Carefully Selected, 40/1 Ashtown Lad
40/1 Fury Road, 40/1 Darasso, 40/1 The Shunter, 40/1 Royale Pagaille
40/1 Pencilfulloflead, 40/1 Happygolucky, 50/1 Ash Tree Meadow
50/1 Burrows Saint, 50/1 Fiddlerontheroof, 50/1 Frontal Assault
50/1 Minella Times, 50/1 Quick Wave,  50/1 Remastered
50/1 Coko Beach, 50/1 Envoi Allen, 50/1 Lord Lariat
50/1 Franco De Port, 50/1 Ga Law, 50/1 The Big Breakaway
50/1 Escaria Ten,  50/1 Threeunderthrufive



Spent a few hours on this yesterday

Made progress making these notes
  

February 9th

Covered this for the first time

Told you about an early bet I had

LONGHOUSE POET 33/1

£20 Win




Watching the Midlands National

Iwilldoit was running rather well

Was praying he would not win it
Because the angles against him
Can be used in the Grand National
And had he won yesterdays race
I would have lost some big angles
Thankfully those angles worked out
As he was well beaten in 5th place

The angles I used on him yesterday
Apply to several in Aintree's National

DELTA WORK will be failing them

ANY SECOND NOW will be as well
He will be failing several other angles

THE BIG DOG will be failing them

CAREFULLY SELECTED will be too

So will several bigger priced horses

Last season

NOBLE YEATS won as a 7 year old

He did that in my opinion
Because he had more runs that year
Than any other horse in the 2002 race
It compensated for his age problem

Won last year off 147
Now faces a rating of 166

Won last year with 10st 10lbs
This year he carried 11st 11lbs

The last Grand National winner 
Who win with 11st 10lbs or more
Was Red Rum's second victory
As long time ago back in 1974
No horse has done that since

NOBLE YEATS has this problem

Yes he just placed in a Gold Cup
But that might not be much help
Could just as easily be a problem

Other horses

Who fail Red Rum's 1974 weight stat
 
HEWICK has 11st 12lbs weight

CONFLATED  has 11st 12lbs

GALVIN has 11st 11lbs

No easy task for any of those

 ANY SECOND NOW has 11st 12lbs

In recent seasons

Horses from Cheltenham handicaps

Had a horrible record in the National

Until last season and Noble Yeats
He bucked that trend winning in 2022

It is certainly not a positive though

CORACH RAMBLER won at Cheltenham

Think that's good reason to oppose him
But I would do anyway sired by Jeremy

MR INCREDIBLE placed at Cheltenham
Only a 7yo and from a weak sire as well
He just looks very opposable as well
Many other bigger priced horses in this
Come from Cheltenham handicaps too

GAILLARD DU MESNIL from WP Mullins
Won the 4 miler at Cheltenham last week

Can not be sure he will even run here
And he is only a 7 year old as well
I'm not ruling him out at the moment
But there are obvious question marks

Chemical Energy is in the betting
But is not currently entered in this race
And would be too inexperienced for it

Having spent a few hours on the race

I decided to have my second bet in it

LONGHOUSE POET once again

Because of Cheltenham's schedule

I had no idea he ran last week

He won a Chase at Down Royal

He is now between 14/1 and 18/1

He will go there with 29 days off

On the back of a confidence booster

An Irish 9yo with 9 chase starts

Sounds a very pleasant prospect

Right now I am doubling down

Went on Betfair backed him again

LONGHOUSE POET

£50 Win taking 21/1

Still very early days

But I think he will win the race

Backed him twice now 22/1-33/1

My work yesterday made me think

I had it right when I first backed him

Not certain to be my final selection

But I really can't see another right now

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