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1 Account Bet 



Account Bet 

Down Royal 2.10 

BE MY HERO 17/2-8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


    

Today's Message    
  

Bank Holiday message

It's always a mad scramble
The tail just wags the dog
Never a message to predict
Last hour always the same
Editing out the non runners
Watching the prices shorten


The only priority today

Finding an account bet

These were the options





Down Royal 1.35 

TOP SPEED 100/30 - 3/1
 
Win Bet

Like the angles in this race
Looks a classy maiden hurdle 
Would not be a suitable bet
Not in such a weak market
And around 100/30 and 7/2
I would be tempted each way
But it could get very messy
It is one of my favourite bets
But really difficult to stake it




Bath 2.23 

£4.50 Each Way SENOR POCKETS 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet AMERICAN ROSE 7/1

One of those trappy 3yo races
That you can only go so far with
Lots of known unknowns in them
I may regret at the close of play
Not going with this for the bet
The staking is not symmetrical
Scrappy stuff but did consider it




Bath 4.08

£3.75 Each Way PRINCE ALI 16/1-14/1 
 
£2.50 Win Bet GOD OF THUNDER 100/30-7/2

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

The original plan in this race
Was God of Thunder each way
Think he may outclass this lot
But he has gone under 4/1 now
There is a chance he will bounce
PRINCE ALI quite a leap of faith 
But there is a breeding angle 
That makes him look interesting
If he had a more recent race
Might have gone with this bet





Down Royal 2.10 

BE MY HERO 17/2-8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

This was one of the first races
I knew might provide us a bet
There have been non runners
That have shortened the price
He is a recent stable upgrader 
Who ran better than it looked
When entitled to need the run
When finishing 7th last time out
He will races off todays rating
But whether that's today or not
Will be down to a lot of things
Not least the stable wanting it







Preview Selections

 
Down Royal 1.35 
Top Speed 100/30 - 3/1 
Win Bet

Curragh 1.50 
Bucanero Fuerte 11/8 
Win Bet

Down Royal 2.10 
Be My Hero 17/2-8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
 
Beverley 2.18 
Ponga 5/2-11/4
Each Way

Bath 2.23 
£4.50 Each Way Senor Pockets 7/1 
£1.00 Win Bet American Rose 7/1

Beverley 2.53
Mistamac 100/30-7/2 
Each Way 

Bath 3.33 
£6.00 Win Bet My Genghis 8/1 
£4.00 Place Bet Master Sully 5/4-11/8 (1-2-3-4)

Bath 4.08 
£3.75 Each Way Prince Ali 16/1-14/1 
£2.50 Win Bet God Of Thunder 100/30-7/2 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4 







Underneath The Message 



Betting these myself
 
Just my own strategies

Official selections stand



Down Royal 1.35 
Top Speed 100/30 - 3/1 
£20 Each Way


Down Royal 2.10 
Be My Hero 17/2-8/1
£20 Win Bet


Bath 2.23 
Senor Pockets 7/1 
£15 Win Bet


Bath 4.08 
Prince Ali 16/1-14/1 
£5 Win







Yesterday's Summary      

Sunday was a 7 preview day
Despite the best bet failing us
Overall I did feel quite positive  
Strange as that might sound
Sometimes the choice of bet
Can often be quite random  
Wreck It Ryley coped badly
With the drop in distance
Started with a decent winner
Finished with a better winner
So we did get some success
Catherine Chroi finished place
He went long odds in running
Yellow Bear who I'm watching
Also placed but the flaw there
Was bad staking in that race
Mixed day good and bad parts
Disappointed with the best bet
But restored some confidence 
And I don't see it as a bad day







PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Down Royal 1.35

11/4 Sign From Above, 7/2 Top Speed, 9/2 The Mediator
5/1 Samadabad, 8/1 Monsieur Azul, 10/1 Dinoland
12/1 Baltic Bird, 25/1 John W Creasy, Now Go Soldier Go
33/1 Lady Leanora, The Belmont Boys, 50/1 Alkascotch
50/1 Big Belief, Lothbeg, Screaming Petrus, 66/1 Kalsman
66/1 Kilballyowen, 66/1 Kilkee Royal, 66/1 That's About Right.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 1f

Should involve just 7 horses
Hoping to narrow that down
Starting with 4 year olds

March and April
Down Royal 
Have 22 of these races

No surprise on this track
4 year olds have struggled
With a weak 1-49 record 

BALTIC BIRD is a 4yo
Decent flat horse and useful
But just the 1 run in months

SAMADABAD also a 4yo
May not have enough here

THE MEDIATOR is a 6yo
Not been seen in 6 months now

Down Royal 
22 similar races
Horses absent over 167 days
Have a 0-66 record in them
THE MEDIATOR has 183 days off

March and April
Similar races elsewhere
Horses aged 6 or more
Under 11 career starts
Coming from a hurdle
Absent more than 171 days
Return a poor 1-169 record
THE MEDIATOR fails this
Would not be first choice

MONSIEUR AZUL is a 5yo
Just 1 run in a bumper so far
Some do win with that profile
But none so far done here
Will be a shame if he beats us

SIGNS FROM ABOVE

Has 2 hurdle races before
One of the more likely winners
But some of his rivals last time
Who beat him are only modest
Like the winner of his last race
Rated 109 and 0-12 over hurdles
Danger of overrating him
But of underestimating him too
 
TOP SPEED is a 6yo
Opposed him last time out 
It was his 3rd hurdle race
Had 101 days off on heavy
May well have needed a run

Felt a stiffer track would help 
Last time out a sharper track
This course and extra furlong
Should help him improve
 
Selection

TOP SPEED 3/1

Win Bet






 
Curragh 1.50

6/4 Bucanero Fuerte 7/2 His Majesty 
6/1 Unquestionable, Valiant Force
12/1 Sturlasson, 20/1 Blame Thechampagne
20/1  Love Ya.

2yo Listed race 5f

NOCHE MAGICA a non runner 

Forced me to change plans

BUCANERO FUERTE 

Sets the standard so far
Very decent debut winning here 
 
His main dangers are unsafe
Having had no experience

April and May
2yo races
Listed and Graded class
Any distance
No unraced horses won
Only 9 tried but none did it
The following are unraced

HIS MAJESTY 
UNQUESTIONABLE
VALLIANT FORCE

BUCANERO FUERTE  

Has the edge with a run


Selection

BUCANERO FUERTE 11/8

Win Bet






Down Royal 2.10

 9/2 Herculaneum, 11/2 I Don't Get It, Perfect Arch
13/2 Warm In Gorey, 8/1 Galactica, 10/1 Flashthelights
12/1 Atlantic Wonder, Be My Hero, 14/1 Lakefield Flyer
25/1 Chancer Dancer Doune Castle, 33/1 Mullins Cross
33/1 Shining Aitch 33/1 Stansfield, 33/1 Superlike
50/1 That's Me Finished 50/1 The Miser.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

I DON'T GET IT won last time
WARM IN GOREY was in 2nd

I DON'T GET IT is 9 years old 
Last years winner also a 9yo
Older types have won this
But only if not too exposed

Horses with over 22 runs
Have a weak 1-56 record

Those with over 16 hurdles
Have a 0-21 record in this 

I DON'T GET IT is exposed
He has 50 runs 43 in hurdles
So going to pass him over here

Other exposed horses
More than any past winners
MULLINS CROSS
STANSFIELD
SHINING AITCH
PERFECT ARCH

GALACTICA ran 10 days ago
Beaten 54 lengths is too far  

Several othes have absences
Not the easiest track for those
LAKEFIELD FLYER off 132 days
Combined with a big weight too

FLASHLIGHTS is a 7 year old
Might prefer a longer distance

Shortlist

WARM IN GOREY is a 5yo
Unexposed with positives

HERCULANEUM is a 6yo
Positive profile is shortlisted

BE MY HERO is an 8yo
Like that in summer 2022
He upgraded to Gordon Elliot
Has had 2 hurdle races since
Entitled to have needed both
Ran well last time out at Naas
Finished 7th behind Herculaneum
Started a shorter price than him
Despite just 1 run in many months
If you watch that run took the eye
Not knocked about at any stage

This concerns me a bit

Go back to 2010
January to May
Down Royal 
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class 
Horses aged 5
Under 12 lifetime runs
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Return a 0-44 record in them
The following all fail this

LAKEFIELD FLYER
GALACTICA
WARM IN GOREY

WARM IN GOREY can defy it
He has a claimer jockey riding 

HERCULANEUM a year older
Should also be going close

BE MY HERO running off 80
After a stable upgrade as well
Could be very well treated here

Selection

BE MY HERO 17/2-8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Beverley 2.18

15/8 Scoops Ahoy, 7/2 Ponga, 13/2 Match That
10/1 Bazball, 10/1 Up The Jazz, 12/1 Nellie Leylax
12/1 Port And Starburd, , 20/1 Grecian Princess
25/1 Stamper, 33/1 Fullofbrightideas, Just Like Tonto
50/1 Missutoo.

2yo Maiden 5f

Go back to 2011
Beverley 5f races
Unraced 2 year olds
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-55 record
PORT AND STARBOARD 
Fails this angle from stall 11


David OMeara runs two
Both have had experience

MATCH THAT is a filly

SCOOPS AHOY is a colt
Achieved far more last time

PONGA is his market danger

BAZZBALL is unraced
Well backed dangerous floater
If I look at his sires runners
That raced over 5f or 6f
On Good to soft or worse
Those with under 3 races
Have a 0-16 record so far
Not a negative just observation

With some floaters

This may be the sensible bet

Selection

PONGO 5/2-11/4

Each Way

 






Bath 2.23

3/1 Princess Naomi, 4/1 Dercol, 7/1 Ceilidh King
8/1 Alainn Tu, 8/1 American Rose, 8/1 Jax Edge
8/1 My Delilah, Senor Pockets, 20/1 Get Busy

3yo Handicap 

5f 160yds

Going with experience

March to May
Bath
3yo handicaps
Class 6 races
Under 7 furlongs

Horses with under 5 runs
Have a poor 1-38 record
That winner was a filly
And she did it on firm ground
On soft I'd want more runs
So opposing these horses

CEILIDH KING
GET BUSY
DERCOL

Several of these
Met each other 10 days ago

PRINCESS NAOMI won 
But a filly from the outside draw

ALAINN TU finished in second
She is the lowest rated horse
Every other runner in this race
Is rated 8lbs or more higher
She gets weight but a concern
She is rather short on class

MY DELILAH finished in 3rd
She has been sold quite cheaply
JAX EDGE finished in 4th place
There are fitter profiles here

AMERICAN ROSE is one
Shortlistable and a saver

SENOR POCKETS first choice
Maybe able to outclass these


Selection
 
£4.50 Each Way SENOR POCKETS 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet AMERICAN ROSE 7/1










Beverley 2.53

11/4 Herakles, 4/1 Mistamac, 6/1 Tasever
13/2 Zuffolo, 7/1 Azucena, Strength 'n Honour
8/1 Miss Brazen, 20/1 Silverlode, 33/1 Parr Fire.

3yo Handicap (5f)

HERAKLES has topweight
Only 2 career starts so far

That may be a difficult task
When you factor in his draw

Go back to 2011
Beverley 5f races
Under 11 runners
3 year olds
Under 10 career runs
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-20 record

HERAKLES fails this
MISS BRAZEN fails this

Most of the runners
Come here with absences
So we will have to guess

Go back to 2011
Beverley 5f races
Under 11 runners
Horses of any age
With under 8 career runs
Absent more than 19 days
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Have a 0-21 record so far
HERAKLES fails this
ZUFFOLO fails this too

So far we have eliminated
The horses drawn 8-9-10
Have to guess from here

TASEVER is interesting
As the drop in trip will suit
But cab we trust his trainer

April and May
3yo Handicaps
Tim Easterby's record
His runners over 5f
Absent more than 4 weeks
Stands at 1-67 since 2003

April and May
His 3yo handicappers
hat run at this track
Have a 0-61 record
Going back to 2007
TASEVER may still win
But not trusting the trainer

Playing it this way

Selection

MISTAMAC 100/30-7/2

Each Way






Bath 3.33

6/1 Fossos, 7/1 Shesadabber, 8/1 Bluebell Time
8/1 Diamondsinthesand, Master Sully, Symbol Of Hope
10/1 My Genghis, 12/1 Coronation Cottage, Notre Maison
14/1 The Daley Express, 16/1 Atty's Edge, Ellie Piper
25/1 Glamorous Force, 25/1 Silver Diva 33/1  Rhubarb.

5f Handicap

SYMBOL OF HOPE is a 5yo
He won the race last season
But only had 6 rivals that day
And had several prep runs too
This year he has 7 months off
Happy to oppose him in this

April and May
5f Handicaps
Class 6 races
Horses aged 8 or more
Just 1 run this season
Have a 0-35 record in them
THE DALEY EXPRESS fails this
CORONATION COTTAGE does

Go back to 2010
Bath 5f handicaps
Horses drawn 14 or higher
Have a 0-36 record in them
The following are badly drawn
NOTRE MAISON
DIAMONDSINTHESAND
SILVER DIVA

ATTY'S EDGE has topweight
First time out happy to avoid

GLAMOROUS FORCE a 6yo
Not tempting off 105 days

SHESADABBER an older mare
Has raced just once this season
Not convinced drawn in stall 1

Go back 23 seasons
Bath 5f handicaps
With 10 or more runners
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn in stall 1
Have a 0-62 record
SHESADABBER fails this

Go back to 2006
Bath handicaps
Under 6 furlongs
Class 6 races
There are 41 of these races
Horses absent over 129 days
Have a weak 1-67 record
The following all fail this
Are are off the track months

ATTY'S EDGE 
SILVER DIVA
SYMBOL OF HOPE
NOTRE MAISON
FOSSOS

ASTROPHYSICS is 11 years old
Would rather avoid him at that age

BLUEBELL TIME a 7yo mare
Has raced once this season
No negative but wanted more

March April May

Classs 6 handicaps
Run over any distance
Mares aged 7 or more
Just 1 run this season
Carrying more than 9st
Have a 0-43 record in them
BLUEBELL TIME fails this
SHESADABBER does too

Shortlist

MY GENGHIS is a 4yo
Unexposed and two runs ago
Won in a career best figure
Pulled up last time is excusable
Precautionary action by jockey

MASTER SULLY is a 5yo
More recent runs than most
But has quite a high draw
And he is rated only 47 
Making him a place saver
But going with the 4 year old


Selection 

£6.00 Win Bet MR GENGHIS 8/1

£4.00 Place Bet MASTER SULLY 5/4-11/8 (1-2-3-4)





 
Bath 4.08

4/1 God Of Thunder, 5/1 Niarbyl Bay, 6/1 Gert Lush
6/1 Prophet's Dream, 8/1 Far Horizon, Platinum Prince
10/1 Golden Dove, 12/1 Prince Ali, 20/1 Ermin Street
20/1 Further Measure, 25/1 Carp Kid, Change Of Fortune
25/1 Satellite Call, 33/1 Zuraig.

10f Handicap
 
PROPHET'S DREAM favourite
But he has 325 days absence
That could be a difficult task

Looked at his sire Outstrip
His runners over 10f or more
Have struggled with absences
Going to look for an alternative

Go back to 2004
Bath 10f handicaps
Horses aged 4 or more
Absent more than 162 days
Drawn 7 or higher
Have a 0-51 record in them
The following all fail this

PROPHET'S DREAM
PLATINUM PRINCE
GERT LUSH

Similar races to this show
Mares aged 6 or more
Absent more than 27 days
Carrying 9st or more
Have a 0-50 record in them
GERT LUSH also fails this

NIARBYL BAY is a 4yo
Only 3 runs first time out
Not for me in this kind of field

There are a few that could win
But don't look very appealing

FAR HORIZON is shortlisted

GOD OF THUNDER

Liked him a lot each way
Thinking he may outclass these
But he does have topweight
And comes back only 7 days
After his seasonal debut here
So could he possibly bounce ?

Decided to make him a saver

PRINCE ALI

Sired by Twilight Son

Horses from this sire
Running over 12f or more
Have a 0-43 record so far

That could be significant

His last 3 flat races
Were over 12 furlongs
 
Ran well in these
But may have been too far
And outside his stamina range

Back at 10f
He could go very well off his rating
Wanted something on him at 16/1

Selection

£3.75 Each Way PRINCE ALI 16/1-14/1 
 
£2.50 Win Bet GOD OF THUNDER 100/30-7/2

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4
 
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