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Today's Best Bet    
    
Goodwood 5.20 

RHOSCOLYN  7/2 (Betfair)

Win Bet







 
Final Deliberations  
 
Goodwood day 2

Chaotic weather forecast
Hight winds and heavy rain
Expecting major disruption
But staying with Goodwood 

Done the Galway Plate too
But ignoring the other races
Huge fields inviting trouble

I see this as a two bet day
The market likes one of them
But hates the other selection


Goodwood 1.50
TAGABAWA  10/1-11/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Unproven on softer ground
May be that's why he is weak
And drifting out in the betting
The market says I am wrong
And I could easily be here
Risky selection on the soft
But taking a chance on him



Today's Best Bet

Goodwood 5.20 

RHOSCOLYN  7/2 

Win Bet


Fancy him strongly here
But so do too many others
He was being well backed  
As early as 8am yesterday 

If I could get 4/1 each way
He would be a staked bet


No firms are offering us 4/1
Trading 7/2-4/1 on Betfair
And I do have to factor in 
Likely non runners/rule 4's

So I'm forced into a win bet
Not ideal but cards are dealt
At 7/2 win only not a main bet
But he is the days best bet

Not sure about the rest of it
Hopeful but hard to predict
With the bad weather in play
And races likely to change 

Staying with the above 2 bets

With Rhoscolyn my best bet

But not staked how I wanted







Preview Selections 
 
Goodwood 1.50
Tagabawa 10/1-11/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Goodwood 2.25
White Moonlight 6/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Goodwood 3.00 
£5.00 Win Bet Kylian 11/4-3/1  
£4.00 Place Bet Barnwell Boy 6/4 
£1.00 Win Bet Barnwell Boy 8/1

Goodwood 4.10 
£6.00 Win Bet Indispensable 8/1-7/1 
£4.00 Place Juniper Berries 5/4 (1-2-3-4)

Goodwood 4.45
£6.00 Win Bet La Isla Mujeres 100/30 
£4.00 Place Bet Decoration 6/4
 
Goodwood 5.20 
Rhoscolyn 7/2 
Win Bet

Galway 6.40
£5.00 Win Bet Hollow Games 9/1-8/1
£5.00 Place Bet Kilcruit 11/10-1/1








Yesterday's Summary     

Opening day had 8 previews
Most important was the first
Dream Composer and savers
All beaten in the days best bet
Got a smack in the mouth here
Miserable start to the meeting
Ship got steadied in next two
Doubles out stakes in the next
Nicked a bit on Paradias too
But the message folded after
Any chance of a recovery gone
Galways races not too bad
Not far off level in 2 previews
But the late Goodwood races
Kicked the performance down
Overall we were just outclassed









PROFILES & PREVIEWS  


Goodwood 1.50

2/1 Amleto, 6/1 Westerton, 7/1 Fox Journey
7/1 Struth, 8/1 Tagabawa, 9/1 French Invasion
14/1 The Goat, Tony Montana, 20/1 Alumnus
20/1 Clan Chieftain, 20/1 Inquiring Minds
50/1 Cool Party.
 
3yo Handicap 12f

Past winners of this race
Had the following career runs
4 4 6 6 4 6 7 6 8 6 4 7 6 7 7 
They all had at least 4 races

AMLETO looks progressive
But he only has 3 career runs
And 84 days off the track too

Go back to 2000
Past renewals show
Horses with under 4 runs
Have a 0-32 record in this
AMLETO fails this statistic

CLAN CHIEFTAN fails this

FRENCH INVASION does too

COOL PARTY fails statistics

Horses running within 3 months
From a novice or maiden race
Have a 0-23 record so far
TONY MONTANA has this profile
CLAN CHIEFTAN does as well
THE GOAT is doing the same

Horses who last time out
Were beaten over 10 lengths
Have never won this race (0-31)
FRENCH INVASION fails this
INQUIRING MIND does as well

ALUNUS looks a lively outsider
Up in class but a very recent run
But not even the stable number 1

FOX JOURNEY won last time
But it was 2 grades lower class
Can't be ruled out on his profile
But he is on the smaller side 
Will that impact on soft ground

Shortlist

TAGABAWA looks progressive
He has topweight to overcome
But is from a strong trial race

WESTERTON looks a positive
Coming from the same trial race

STRUT one of the experienced
Comes from another good trial
His breeding stars are unsafe

Look at the sire Australia

His runners over 1m 4f +
Running in class 2 or higher
On ground softer than good
Have a modest 2-77 record
One won a two horse race
In fields of 8 or more runners
The sires record is 0-63
STRUT shares this profile

TAGABAWA

Unproven on soft

Thats why he is a big price

He could outclass these

Late foal only had 5 runs so far

Decent run at Royal Ascot
Made him a negative there
He was underraced that day
They went a suicidal gallop
He did remarkably well there
To have lasted out so long 
Before inevitably fading late

He then went to Newmarket
The leaders went off very quickly
May have done a bit too much
TAGABAWA had the worst draw

Previewed that Newmarket race

WESTERTON was my selection

TAGABAWA was a negative 
Failing several angles there

TAGABAWA topweight

Would be favourite if proven on soft 
He is not but we get a better price 
He has only raced twice on grass 
Both his parents won on the soft  
So did both his grandparents too
Taking a chance he will handle it
 
Selection

TAGABAWA 10/1-11/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Goodwood 2.25

5/1 Fast Response, 5/1 Jumbly, 6/1 Dream Of Love
13/2 Breege, 8/1 Olivia Maralda, 8/1 White Moonlight
9/1 Matilda Picotte, 16/1 Juliet Sierra, Magical Sunset
22/1 Sicilian Defense, 25/1 Glenlaurel, Sydneyarms Chelsea
28/1 Internationalangel, 33/1 Samedi Rien
40/1 American Kestrel.

Oak Tree Stakes

7f Group race for Fillies

High draws are a problem
 
Goodwood 7f races
Run in Class 2 or higher
Since the 2011 renumbering
Horses aged 3 or more
Drawn in stall 14 or higher
Have a 0-70 record in them
The following horses fail this

MATILDA PICOTTE
MAGICAL SUNSET
SICILIAN DEFENSE

11 of the 16 runners
Have official ratings of 100 +
Most past winners had that
The remaining 5 are rejected

INTERNATIONALANGEL
SYDNEYARMS CHELSEA
JULIET SIERRA
GLENLAUREL
AMERICAN KESTREL

SAMEDO RIEN is underraced 

JUMBLY has Ryan Moore
Entitled to be popular here
What worries me most here
The combination of stall 12
With 42 days absence too

Go back to 2011
Every Goodwood race (7f)
Horses drawn 12 or more
Absent over 38 days
Have a 0-44 record
JUMBLY only just fails  
But he does and fails this too

Go back to 2011
Every Goodwood race (7f)
Horses with over 2 runs
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Absent over 38 days
Return a 0-64 record
JUMBLY has this profile

FAST RESPONSE is a 4yo
Has the ability to win this race
But has had 25 career starts

Horses with over 18 runs
Have a 0-21 record in this race

Horses with over 13 runs
Have a 1-40 record in this race

He's far more exposed than that
Could be vulnerable because of it 
FAST RESPONSE is unorthodox

OLIVIA MARALDA has 9 runs
She has no soft ground form
Connections says she likes fast
And horses from the Jersey stakes
Have never won this race (0-8)

Shortlist

WHITEMOONLIGHT is a 6yo
Oldest horse which is not ideal
Horses aged 6 rarely take part
They have a 1-10 record in this
That winner dropped from 8f
She  also came from a Group 1
WHITE ROMANCE is no match
As a 6yo from a 7f listed race 
May not stop her winning though
She is unexposed for a 6yo


BREEZE is a 3 year old

DREAM OF LOVE is a 3yo

Both come from the Sandringham
The 2002 and 2006 winners did this
Several more recently have placed
Both are shortlistable on their profile
 
What worries me most about these

Go back to 1999

Every past renewal
Run on good to soft or worse
Was won by older horses

Horses aged 3
Had a 0-17 record in these races
Given the expected tough conditions
Decided to chance the 6 year old
  
Selection

WHITE ROMANCE 6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Goodwood 3.00

9/4 Kylian, 5/2 Big Evs, 6/1 Baheer
9/1 Purosangue, 10/1 Barnwell Boy, Shagraan
25/1 Hackman, 33/1 Markakol

Molecomb Stakes

5f Group race (2yo)

8 runners

Be lucky if it stays that way

Official ratings suggest
We can avoid two horses

HACKMAN
MARKAKOL

No significant negatives

BAHEER is a gelding
They have never won this race
But not a compelling angle
But he has never run over 5f
Neither did last years winner
But the 2022 winner was a filly 

KYLIAN has a positive profile
Horses with 3 or more career runs
Coming from the Dragon Stakes
Won this in the following years
2000 2010 2017 2019

SHAGRAAN is like the 2014 winner

BIG EVS is favourite

But should he be really ?

He is drawn 8 of 8
That is a slightly negative draw

Won the Windsor Castle at 20/1

BARNWELL BOY was only 11th
But he was the morning favourite
Turned out he had a horrible draw
And missing the break hurt him too
He could reverse the form in this

Going to split stake this race

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet KYLIAN 11/4-3/1 

£4.00 Place Bet BARNWELL BOY 6/4

£1.00 Win Bet BARNWELL BOY 8/1






Goodwood 4.10

3/1 Tropical Island, 4/1 Flora Of Bermuda
6/1 Indispensable 13/2 Juniper Berries, 9/1 Beenham
9/1  Dapperling, 11/1 Make It Easy, 14/1 Princess Chizara
16/1 Ziggy's Dream, 18/1 Cotai Vision, 25/1 Thanksbutnothanks
50/1 Looby.
 
Conditions Stakes 5f
 
2yo Fillies 

Unusual race

Just 4 past renewals

Those 4 winners
Had 3 2 2 5 career starts
None had just 1 run before

TROPICAL ISLAND has 1 run
And the only horse in the race 
That has that which worries me
Should she really be favourite ?
Not sure but opposing her here

FLORA OF BERMUDA rated 91
Comes out top on official ratings
But drawn 2 could be an issue

Go back to 2011
Goodwood 5f races
With over 8 runners
Horses aged 2
Drawn 1 are 0-15
Drawn 2 are 0-15
Not sure how reliable that is
FLORA OF BERMUDA fails it
COTAI VISION does drawn in 1

Go back to 2011
Goodwood 5f races
With over 8 runners
Horses of any age
Under 6 career runs
Drawn 1-2 are 0-9
Weaker draw statistic
But both fails this as well

All 4 previous winners
Started 12/1 or shorter last time
That is a bit of a wobbly angle
But we are short of good stats
And there is some logic behind it
I'd be against horses who last time
Started unfancied at big prices
Which includes the following

DAPPERLING
PRINCESS CHIZARA
ZIGGY'S DREAM

BEENHAM could be included
Not first choice from a small yard
With plenty to find on figures
MAKE IT EASY has a bit to find

Shortlisting 2

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet INDISPENSABLE 8/1-7/1

£4.00 Place JUNIPER BERRIES 5/4 (1-2-3-4)







Goodwood 4.45

7/2 La Isla Mujeres, 4/1 Decoration
13/2 Queen Regent 8/1 Therapist, 9/1 Sirona
9/1 Value Added, 10/1 There's The Door
12/1 Chips And Rice, Persist, 14/1 Never Ending
16/1 In These Shoes, 20/1 Rousay

Fillies Handicap 10f

Not done this race before

Way out of my comfort zone
So only summarising this one

Every past winner
Had between 4-12 runs
Because of that statistic
And the conditions today
Opposing horses with less
QUEEN REGENT has 3 runs

ROUSTAR has 14 runs
Out of the range of past winners

I would want horses
Who have at least 2 recent runs
Especially given the conditions
QUEEN REGENT lacks this
PERSIST is also underraced

IN THE SHOES looks beatable
CHIPS AND RICE up 3 grades

VALUE ADDED is drawn widest
Comes out badly on sire statistics
 
Looked at every sire in the race
They runners over 10f or more
Good to soft or worse ground
In Class 2 or higher grades
VALUE ADDED's sire is 1-76
Those absent over 8 days 0-68

THERES THE DOOR's sire 0-5
Inconclusive but none have won

SIRONA's sires record is 0-8
Again that is also Inconclusive
But up in trip and a big weight
Was not drawn enough to her

Split staking this race

Selection
 
£6.00 Win Bet LA ISLA MUJERES 100/30

£4.00 Place Bet DECORATION 6/4






Goodwood 5.20

4/1 Rhoscolyn, 13/2 Urban Sprawl, 7/1 Dark Thirty
7/1 Darkness, 8/1 Love De Vega, 9/1 Classic
10/1 Thunder Ball, 12/1 Farasi Lane, 12/1 Physique
14/1 Harry Magnus, Isla Kai, 20/1 Wobwobwob
25/1 Larado, 33/1 Secret Strength, 50/1 Baileysgutfeeling
50/1 Haziym, Mamillius.

7f Handicap

Opposing certain types here

The horses drawn highest

FARASI LANE is one of those

Go back to 2011
Every Goodwood race (7f)
Horses aged 3
Drawn 12 or more 
Have a 0-83 record

THUNDER BALL fails this
CLASSIC also fails this too


Against the horses from 6f
Who do not score well in this
DARK THIRTY has this problem
HAZIYM also comes from 6f
But has months off the track
Past race history suggests 
You want a run within 6 weeks
The following also fails this stat

LARADO
HARRY MAGNUS

Horses with over 18 runs
Who have under 4 runs in 12 weeks
Have a 0-31 record in this handicap
The more exposed the horse is
The more recent runs they need
The following horses all fail this
WOBWOBWOB
LARADO
MAMILLUS

LOVE DE VEGA is underraced
Having had just 1 run in 10 months

Horses aged 4 score poorly
None have won this race before
Unless they ran within 2 weeks
BAILEYSGUTFEELING does not
LOVE DE VEGA also fails this stat
HAZIYM also fails this as well

SECRET STRENGTH rated 75
Should not have the class to win

ISLA KAI has a chance
Wanted a better last race
 
URBAN SPRAWL has a chance
But he is exposed for a 3 year old
Without a run in the last month
PHYSIQUE is down in distance
Weak stable not my first choice
DARKNESS is exposed up in class
 
RHOSCOLYN

Looks ready to win

Recent run loves the ground

Very well handicapped

Excellent course record

Looks the winner to me

Selection

RHOSCOLYN 7/2

Win Bet







   
Galway 6.40

6/1 Kilcruit, 7/1 Enniskerry, 8/1 Final Orders
9/1 Ash Tree Meadow, 10/1 Fury Road, Hewick
12/1 Hollow Games, 14/1 Easy Game, Lifetime Ambition
14/1 The Goffer, 16/1 Gabbys Cross, 18/1 A Wave Of The Sea
20/1 Andy Dufresne, Ciel De Neige, Foxy Jacks, Visionarian
25/1 Authorized Art, 25/1 Born By The Sea, 25/1 Fighter Allen
25/1 Lieutenant Command, 33/1 Hurricane Georgie
33/1 Upping The Anti.


Galway Plate

Handicap Chase 2m 6f
Bit nervous about this race

There is a big field

Last 2 winners had weights
Higher than any past winners
So is the race changing now ?

Many recent winners of this
Came here with absences

Opposing the older horses

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a poor 2-125 record
Those with over 6 chases
Have a poor 1-107 record

Horses aged 9 or more
Finishing 3rd on worse
On their last runs are 0-82

Horses aged 9 or more
Over 6 chase runs
Absent over 14 days
Have a 0-94 record
  
The following older horses
All fail the above demands

EASY GAME
FURY ROAD
ANDY DUFRESNE
ENNISKERRY
FOXY JACKS
LIEUTENANT COMMAND
BORN BY THE SEA

  
Horses under 7 years old
Have won just 1 past renewal 
Don't like todays 6 year olds

HURRICANE GEORGIE
THE GOFFER

THE GOFFER drops from 3m 4f
Past winners prepping over 3m 2f +
Have a 0-27 record in this race
GABBYS CROSS also fails this
LIFETIME AMBITION does too

HEWICK is rejected 11st 12lbs
None have won with 11st 8lbs +
A WAVE OF THE SEA is out
Just looks too exposed to like

ASH TREE MEADOW in unsafe
Having a recent run is not ideal
But that was a flat maiden race
Not jumped a fence in 10 months
No doubt laid out for the race
But would prefer to go elsewhere

Willie Mullins trains a handful
Opposig those of his runners
Who look down the pecking order

CIELDE NEIGE is one
AUTHORIZED ART another
Who also comes from the flat
VISIONARIAN is underraced
FINAL ORDERS could be
And a recent flat run is unsafe

Shortlisting 2

Both obviously laid out

From the best stables

Staking a win and Place bet

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet HOLLOW GAMES 9/1-8/1

£5.00 Place Bet KILCRUIT 11/10-1/1

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