7 Previews 

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Decided not to stake a bet
Instead have one on Sunday 
Most probably over in Ireland



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Today's Best Bet
  
Catterick 2.45

LORD TORRANAGA  11/2- 6/1

Each Way






Final Deliberations     
 
No higher class races on offer
One of those quieter Saturdays
After Epsom before Royal Ascot
Feels like a normal week day

Starting with a big price horse

Haydock 1.15 

MONDAMMEJ 12/1-14/1

Each Way
 
I nearly went £2.50 each way
With a £5 place bet saver bet
With Equilateral around 10/11
That appeals a bit more to me
But that's just overcomplicated


7 Previews

Mix of soft and hard races

Softer races are not suitable
Many of these weak markets 
Vulnerable to any non runner


Staked bet was the priority

But now preferring tomorrow

Many more suitable races
Some juicy irish handicaps 

Inclined to go for a sunday bet 

That is the the plan of attack

Been a week of small fields
But Sunday has more runners


My favourite bets are these


Haydock 1.15 

MONDAMMEJ 12/1-14/1

Each Way



Catterick 2.45

LORD TORRANAGA  11/2- 6/1

Each Way






Preview Selections
 
Haydock 1.15 
Mondammej 12/1-14/1
Each Way

Beverley 1.30
£7.00 Win Bet Abbadia 7/2
£3.00 Win Bet  Leap Day 11/4-5/2

Haydock 1.50
£5.00 Win Bet All The King's Men 9/2-4/1
£5.00 Place Bet Mr Wagyu 4/5

Catterick 2.10
£6.50 Win Bet Dance Angel 7/1-8/1
£3.50 Win Bet Ludden Lass 2/1-15/8
 
Haydock 2.25
£4.00 Each Way Forza Orta 7/1
£2.00 Win Bet Good Show 5/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3 (4)

Catterick 2.45
Lord Torranaga 6/1 
Each Way

Punchestown 4.50
£8.00 Win Bet Fermoyle 3/1
£2.00 Win Bet Bukhill 4/1







Yesterday's Summary 

Scrappy set of cards to cover
Ended up without short prices
Message went P W W W L P
The 3 shorter priced bets won
Middle of the message strong
Given only one selection lost
Did better than I was expecting
But it was a bit too meaningless

 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS    


Haydock 1.15

3/1 Equilateral, 4/1 Regional, 11/2 Prince Of Pillo
6/1 Raasel, 15/2 Korker, 9/1 Clarendon House
12/1 Fine Wine, 14/1 Mondammej, 20/1 Arecibo
20/1 Makarova.
 
Achilles Stakes

Listed race over 5f

EQUILATERAL is classy
But he is now 8 years old
Just 1 run in 98 days now
And the widest draw too

Stall 10 of 10
May not be very helpful 
Go right back to 1997

Haydock
Races over 5f 6f 7f
Class 3 or higher 
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 10 days
Drawn in stall 10 or higher
Have a 0-53 record 
EQUILATERAL fails this

Only just fails not a negative
But he does face challenges

ARECIBO another 8yo is out
Recent figures are not enough

PRINCE OF PILLO is a 3yo
The only one youngest horse
Rejected without a run this year
Horses aged 3 don't often win
None have won first time out

Horses aged 4
Have a 1-31 record in this race
MAKAROVA is a 4 year old filly
I'd want better from her lately

KORKER is a 4 year old
Comes from York 14 days ago
Several others also ran there

FINE WINE a 6 year old did
Never been in this class before
Has just 1 run in 116 days now

REGIONAL is shortlistable
Just the 1 run this year though
There were 4 winners of this
That won with just 1 prep run
2 came from pattern races
Only 1 like him from handicaps
That horse had a long break

RAASEL has a good chance
Won this race last season
Badly drawn in the Temple Stakes
My only worry is stall one here
No past winner won with stall 1

CLARENDEN HOUSE drawn 2
Has a chance if the draw helps
And he recovers from last time
 
Feel a split stake bet is better

KORKER is quite tempting 
Despite the modest 4yo record

MONDAMMEJ also ran at York
Well behind on official ratings
But that's the only flaw he has
And he has been rated higher

Loves the track and ground
Looks well drawn a fit profile
Many of these are short of runs
Potentially badly drawn too
All his wins are in small fields
He is 0-17 in fields of 11 or more
He is 6-18 in fields of 10 or less
With fast ground and a recent run
Improving that strike rate well
Just feel he's been underestimated


Selection

MONDAMMEJ 12/1-14/1

Each Way







Beverley 1.30

9/4 From Beyond, 11/4 Abbadia, 3/1 Leap Day
7/1 Letaba, 8/1 Bush Rose, 10/1 Rogue Soldier
20/1 Onemorenomore, 66/1 Secret Joy.
 
3yo Maiden 7f

FROM BEYOND is a filly
Ran in two races last season
She could be better than these
But she still has a long break
Takes on two fitter rivals here

LEAP DAY is a major threat
Flopped on his penultimate start
Got found out by heavy ground
Last time he ran a decent race
I think he went off too quickly

ABBADIA is also a big runner
Comes from a Newmarket handicap
Where she was joint top weight
Made most of the running that day
May have done too much to early

There could be other players
But they have less experience
And lowed numbers from them

Because of the nature of this track
Split staking the experienced pair

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet ABBADIA 7/2

£3.00 Win Bet LEAP DAY 9/4-5/2





Haydock 1.50

3/1 Mr Wagyu, 4/1 All The King's Men
8/1 Silver Samurai, 9/1 Cooperation, 10/1 Raatea
12/1 Lucky Man, 16/1 Devil's Angel, Emperor Spirit
16/1 Illusionist, Nomadic Empire, 25/1 Music Society
25/1 Volatile Analyst, 33/1 Fools Rush In.

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-96

SLVER SAMURAI is a 6yo
Won this race last season
Might struggle to follow up

Several reasons he may not
Marco Botti being one of them
Stall 14 of 14 may be another
 
Go back to 2006

Haydock 6f handicaps

Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 7 days
Drawn in stalls 11 or more
Have a 0-72 record in them
The following horses fail

SLVER SAMURAI
DEVIL'S ANGEL
VOLATILE ANALYST

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 0-41 record in this
The above horses fail this

MUSIC SOCIETY does too

ILLUSIONIST fails as a 6yo

RAATEA does and in addition
He's raced just once this year

Horses with over 12 runs
Having under 3 runs in 12 weeks
Have a 0-50 record in this race
Several of the above fail this
So do the following horses

LUCKY MAN
NOMADIC EMPIRE
EMPEROR SPIRIT

ALL THE KING'S MEN drops from 8f
Awkward and undermines his profile
I can find winners that have done this
Which I attribute to a recent race
One of the fittest profile in this
 
MR WAGYU is an 8 year old 
Whilst younger horses are best
One of the fittest profile in this

COOPERATION has a chance
Would like him on the staking
But he is going up in class here
And I prefer the strategy below


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet ALL THE KING'S MEN 4/1-9/2

£5.00 Place Bet MR WAGYU 4/5








Catterick 2.10

7/4 Ludden Lass, 5/2 Azahara Palace, 7/1 Scramble
9/1 Dance Angel, 10/1 Elizabeth's Joy, 12/1 Boniato
14/1 Expert Lady, 16/1 Dusty Rug.

3yo Fillies maiden (7f)

Several second division stables
Last time out starting prices show
Nothing too much was expected

AZAHARA PALACE 50/1 last time

LUDDEN LASS 100/1 at Newmarket

Watched both horses on their debut

LUDDEN LASS impressed me more
Thought her last run was excellent

SCRAMBLE has had 8 career runs
Figures suggest he is quite beatable
Looks more likely to win a handicap

LUDDEN LASS has to be on staking

DANCE ANGEL should be as well
She has achieved considerably less
But I did her last race at Beverley
Where the winner was very strange
The leaders maybe went off too fast 
Felt her run should be upgraded

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet DANCE ANGEL 7/1-8/1

£3.50 Win Bet LUDDEN LASS 2/1-15/8





Haydock 2.25

100/30 Cumulonimbus, 9/2 Good Show, 5/1 Get Shirty
15/2 Forza Orta, 9/1 Dark Pine, 9/1 Live Your Dream
10/1 Onesmoothoperator, 12/1 Prydwen, 14/1 Cosmic Desert
14/1 Global Heat.

12f Handicap

Godolphin run a couple
Neither look too tempting

GLOBAL HEAT is exposed
And he lacks recent races

LIVE YOUR DREAM a 6yo
Has not raced in 609 days
COSMIC DESERT similar
In being absence too long

DARK PINE is resistible
Having raced once in 117 days
From a sire whose 12f winners
Only came in far lower grades

CUMULONIMBUS is a 4yo
He won a Class 4 last time
Looked at 4 years doing this
In all similar class 2 races 
Those running within 8 weeks
Have a 0-25 record in them
Several went close none won
The step up in class the issue

GET SHIRTY has topweight
May be asking a lot to take this
Rated 107 when you factor in
Just the sole run in 77 days 
Not keen on his outside draw

Go back to 1997
Haydock 12f races
Under 11 runners
Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn in stall 10 
Have a 0-12 record
Few tried but none won
GET SHIRTY fails this
 
PRYDWEN is not a negative
Just one or two appealed more

ONESMOOTHOPERATOR a 5yo
Positives if he proves stamina

FORZA ORTA is interesting

The 11/4 favourite last year
But drawn 11 or 11 that day
Worst draw had to come wide
Ran ok at York last time out
Felt he just needed the race
He has to make the shortlist

GOOD SHOW is shortlisted

Selection

£4.00 Each Way FORZA ORTA 7/1

£2.00 Win Bet GOOD SHOW 5/1
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)
  





Catterick 2.45

9/4 Fred Bear, 5/2 Victoriano, 11/4 Hellenista
6/1 Lord Torranaga, 12/1 Top Attraction, 25/1 Glan Y Gors
25/1 Oh So Chic, 50/1 Danking
 
2m Handicap

FRED BEAR has topweight
He has to prove his stamina
His sire has not bred a winner
That was beyond 1m 6f yet
He attempts to be the first one
He has to do that with topweight
And with 37 days off the track

April May June July
Catterick 2m handicaps
13 of these handicaps
Horses absent over 21 days
Have a weak 1-68 record
The following horses fail this

FRED BEAR 
OH SO CHIC
GLAN Y GORS

TOP ATTRACTION is rated 46
That may not be enough to win
DANKING has a similar problem

The last 2 winners
Came from the same race
The 6f handicap here 8 days ago
LORD TORRANAGA does this

VICTORIANO is a danger
HELLENISTA is a danger

Was tempted win and place
But if there are 8 runners
Going with this bet each way

Selection

LORD TORRANAGA  6/1

Each Way






Punchestown 4.50

2/1 New Year Honours, 7/2 Fermoyle, 4/1 Scott Lang
13/2 Ceis Charraigin, 8/1 Bukhill, 8/1  Laishann
9/1 Woodie Wango, 33/1 Black Barrel, Kilkee Royal
40/1 Hob's Angel, 40/1 Rushford, 50/1 My Kurkum
50/1 Oneforgonzo, 100/1 Beanie To Sea, 100/1 Bonilla
100/1 Caminante, 100/1 Golden Forest, Hi Sur Multi
100/1 Kalsman.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

NEW YEARS HONOUR

Has a serious form chance
Half of me thinks she wins
The other have against her

The main flaw in her profile
She is a filly absent 165 days
Taking on lots of male horse

Go back to 2009
January to August
Maiden hurdles
Any distance
Fillies aged 4
Absent over 99 days
Return a poor 1-231 record
NEW YEARS HONOUR fails this

SCOTT LAND looks questionable
Too much speed in his pedigree

A race that does require a guess
With very few alternative options

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet FERMOYLE  3/1

£2.00 Win Bet BUKHILL 4/1 

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