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Today's Message    
  
Chester continues on soft
Some modest field sizes

That's led to shorter prices
Less reliable draw angles
Not a day for a strong bet

That is the main reason
Delaying the new column
Nothing too much to say

Much bigger fields Friday
So backing off a bit today
Have so little wriggle room
It could go either way today




Today's Best Bet 

None





Preview Selections


Chester 1.30
£8.00  Win Bet Lihou 100/30
£2.00 Win Bet Nymphadora 4/1

Chester 2.05 
Surely Not  4/1-9/2
Each Way

Chester 2.40
£7.00 Win Bet San Antonio 3/1
£3.00 Win Bet  Local Dynasty 9/4
 
Chester 3.15
£9.00 Win Bet Hamish 7/4 
£1.00 Win Bet Lone Eagle 14/1

Huntingdon 3.25
Div Ine Tara  6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Chester 4.20
£5.00 Win Bet Hackman 5/2-11/4 
£5.00 Place Bet Innvincible Friend 1/1-11/10




Yesterday's Summary  

Decent first half of the message
Then went sour just after half way
Ziggy's Phoenix won the opener
Great start finishing 1st and 2nd
Finsceal Go Deo was second
Got the 2nd and 3rd in that race
Beaten by an unraced gamble
No complaints that can happen
Jer Batt won but as a saver bet
Which was a fine bit of staking 
Secret Sauce also won as saver
We were in control at that point
But the wheels came off a little
California Gem and savers lost
Shortlisted the winner annoyingly
But rejected him from that list
Shadow Dance hated the ground
SLANEY TIDE was a major flop
Best bet and ran well below form
It was clearly a falsely run race 
But he had just drifted out all day
I partly blame the way it was run
But the main reason he lost that
He probably dislike the ground
I overestimated him on the soft
So it was a self inflicted wound 
Last preview stopped the bleed
But the horse we wanted failed





PROFILES & PREVIEWS
 


Chester 1.30

11/4 Lihou, 4/1 King's Lynn, 4/1 Nymphadora
9/2 Look Out Louis, 6/1 Night On Earth, 9/1 Harry's Bar
16/1 Mokaatil.
 
5f Handicap
 
KING'S LYNN is topweight
Rated 107 may be a big ask

Horses rated 99 or more
Have a 0-27 record in this 
KING'S LYNN has far more
And the outside draw as well

LOOK OUT LOUIS rated 99
Higher than any past winner
With the second widest draw
Not enough for me on profile
With just the 1 run in months

MOKAATIL has history in this
Twice beaten with a fit profile
Tries to win again without one
Now an 8 year old not for me

If I am right about the above
It leaves 4 possible winners 

Nymphadora rated 97
Harry's Bar rated 91
Night On Earth rated 88
Lihou rated 86

NYMPHADORA 6lbs clear
Could outclass these runners
Even on the back of 1 recent run
Fillies aged 4 haven't done well
In any handicaps at the meeting
Few tried only one of them won
Torn with her but I like her class
She may be worth a saver bet

HARRYS BAR might win
But 5f on soft raises doubts

LIHOU

Lightest weight
Fittest profile as well 
Won 4 times in 2023

You can argue against him 
He is going up in class
He is 0-20 in Class 2 races
Including once in this race
But this is a weak renewal
Small field and many others
Are not as fit as he may be

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet LIHOU 100/30
   
£2.00 Win Bet NYMPHADORA 4/1






Chester 2.05

3/1 Vetiver, 4/1 Surely Not, 4/1 Theoryofeverything
11/2 Urban Sprawl, 13/2 Lord Uhtred, 9/1 Promoter
12/1 Self Aclaim, 16/1 True Statesman.
 
3yo Handicap 7.5f
  
Lightly raced horses

Makes this very trappy

How many runs do you need ?

Past winners
Had the following races

6 5 8 11 7 5 6 7 3 5 5 5 4

12 of the last 13 winners
Raced at least 4 times before
If we decided to follow that 
There are 4 horses failing it

PROMOTER
SELF ACLAIM
VETIVER
THEORYOFEVERYTHING

Don't have a great objection
To the horses with three runs
But equally not looking for it

THEORYOFEVERYTHING
Has 2 runs and topweight
Yet he could outclass these

PROMOTER has an absence
VETIVER is the only filly here

Staying with the experienced
URBAN SPRAWL one of them
Quite exposed with 9 races
There is a risk of the bounce
Shortlisting only two horses 
 
SURELY NOT
LORD UHTRED
 
Opposing the 4 horses
With just 3 career starts
Looks a dangerous strategy
So I would rather go each way
Allows me to have been wrong
Without necessarily losing
But the shortlist is hard to split
And a non runner would hurt us

Past renewals show

Horses with 1 run that year
Beaten last time out
Drawn 6 or higher
Have a 0-37 record in this
LORD UHTRED has this profile
I like him but on that one angle
Going with the other runner

Selection

SURELY NOT 4/1-9/2

Each Way




Chester 2.40

5/2 Alder, 7/2 Local Dynasty, 4/1 Passenger
4/1 San Antonio, 8/1 Hadrianus, 18/1 Stormbuster
20/1 Lose Your Wad, 33/1 Afterwards.

Dee Stakes

Listed race 10f

Statistically weak race

Not the nicest of frames

Could be a 4 horse race

PASSENGER is the unsafe one
Having ran just the once before

The previous 34 renewals

Show 33 of them had 2 + runs
The only once raced winner
Was some way back in 2009
PASSENGER is inexperienced

Decided to stay with two horses
From the biggest two stables

PASSENGER now a non runner

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet  SAN ANTONIO 3/1

£3.00 Win Bet  LOCAL DYNASTY9/4
 




Chester 3.15

 2/1 Hamish, 9/4 Changingoftheguard
6/1 Old Harrovian  10/1 Enemy
14/1 Max Vega, 16/1 Lone Eagle
40/1 Sunchart.

Ormonde Stakes

Group 3 race over 1m 5f

OLD HARROVIAN a 4yo
Looks inexperienced with 3 runs
No past winners of this race
Won with under 5 career runs 

24 past renewals
None were drawn 8 or more
MAX VEGA has that challenge

Aidan has a strong chance

CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD 
Can win despite his absence

Going with the following profile

Horses aged 6 or 7
First time out
14-20 career starts
Coming from a pattern race
Starting under 100/1
Have a 4-8 record in this  
This profile won this race
In 2013 2014 2015 2017  

HAMISH has this profile

Little between this pair

But the past renewals 
On Good to soft or heavy 
Seasonal debutant winners 
Tended to be older horses

Horses aged 4 were 1-11
That was in a small 4 runner race

Those aged 6 or 7
Had a very solid 5-13 record
Thats why I prefer Hamish here
Having a cheap saver bet too

Selection 

£9.00 Win Bet HAMISH 7/4 

£1.00 Win Bet LONE EAGLE 14/1






Huntingdon 3.25

3/1 Gaia Vallis, 5/1 Bean Norty, 5/1 Sadie Hill
6/1 Div Ine Tara, 8/1 Kentford Mallard, 10/1 Milanese Rose
12/1 Hey Frankie, Ratoute Yutty, 16/1 First Venture
20/1 Elsieanne, 25/1 Nancy Till, 40/1 Makety
66/1 Giveusacuddle.

Mares Handicap Hurdle 3m 1f

Unusual race so having a go

Just looked at all similar races

Opposing 10 year olds 
None of whom have won
This takes out two horses

RATOUTE YUTTY
KENTFORD MALLARD

Opposing the horses
With under 4 hurdle runs
The following are rejected

GIVEUSACUDDLE
BEAN NORTY
NANCY TILL
ELSIEANNE

FIRST VENTURE is rejected
Coming from a 2m hurdle
MAKETY isn't doing enough

SADIE HILL is fit and in form
But 12st weight is a tough ask
No similar race went to a horse
Carrying as much weight as her

Some horses won with breaks
But would not rush to back these
MILANESE ROSE one of them
Has ran poorly after long breaks
HEY FRANKIE off 130 days
Would not be the first choice

Shortlist

GAIA VALLIS

DIV INE TARA

Gone with the better stable
And a far less exposed horse

Selection

DIV INE TARA 6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Chester 4.20

2/1 Hackman, 5/2 Big Time Rascal
5/1 The Camden Colt, 11/2 Innvincible Friend
10/1 Havanarama, 12/1 She's Smart, 16/1 John Steed
16/1 Roubay, 33/1 Dan Dee Prince
40/1 Sergeant Mayer.
 
2yo Maiden 5f

Most previous winners
Had raced once before

The obvious question
Given this is soft ground
Do we oppose debutants ?

Go back to 1997
Chester 5f and 6f races
Run at any time of year
With more than 7 runners

Unraced 2 year olds
Running on softer ground
Have a modest 1-49 record
That was in this race in 2019
 
That is a very low return
Given it spans 26 seasons
And at any time of the year
The unraced horses are these

SERGEANT MAJOR
ROUBAY
HAVANARAMA
BIG TIME RASCAL
THE CAMDEN COLT

Shortlisting two

INNVINCIBLE FRIEND - Tom Dascome

HACKMAN - Hugo Palmer
 
Tom Dascombe would love to win
Especially given that the favourite 
Comes from a trainer who recently
Replaced him after he was sacked
INNVINCIBLE FRIEND could win

But he was a 32k horse

HACKMAN in contrast cost 132k
Started favourite on his debut too
On a Grade 1 track at Newmarket
He looks the better option on paper

You can argue that draw in stall 8
Hands the advantage back a little
HAMISH is not that well drawn

But we have 3 horses
That ran yesterday who may not run
Which will make that draw easier

HAMISH is my number 1

INNVINCIBLE FRIEND 2

There is a looming threat
Of the unraced Big Time Rascal
I do like the split stake bet here
HAMISH as a win bet around 5/2
INNVINCIBLE FRIEND to place
Who seems reasonable at 1/1 +

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet HAMISH 5/2-11/4

£5.00 Place Bet INNVINCIBLE FRIEND 1/1-11/10







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES    





Real Madrid 1-1 Man City

Dodged a bullet in this game

Luckily fell asleep around 6pm
Woke up at the end of half time

I then backed Man City at 9/2
When they were losing 1-0
And had a saver on the draw

Topped up at 8/1 and 12/1
Ended up losing only £15

Very confident in the 2nd leg
Expecting them to lift the cup

It is very rare but occasionally
You fancy something strongly
And "know" that they will win

Obviously that can not be true
But I know they win this event
Strange feeling but I do feel it

Harry Findlay

Owner of Denman

Much more prone than I am
To unjustifiable confidence
He seems to agree with me
On twitter saying City to win

The Champions league outright

Was his best bet of the season

Hoping to find a second leg
Something to place with City
Just to jack the price up a bit






Saturday

Ascot 2.40

Victoria Cup

8/1 Kingdom Come, 17/2 Fresh, 10/1 Khanjar
10/1 Montassib, 10/1 Vafortino, 11/1 Baradar
12/1 Totally Charming, 14/1 Biggles, 14/1 Open Mind
14/1 Rainbow Fire, 14/1 Rebel Territory, 14/1 River Nymph
14/1 Spycatcher, 14/1 The Gatekeeper, 16/1 Air To Air
18/1 First Folio, 18/1 Mums Tipple, 18/1 Perotto
20/1 Admiral D, 20/1 Bless Him, 20/1 Lyndon B
20/1 Red Mirage, 20/1 Ropey Guest, 20/1 Safe Voyage
20/1 Sir Thomas Gresham, Tylos, 22/1 Accidental Agent
22/1 Sir Dancealot, 25/1 Orbaan, 25/1 Zip, 28/1 Bopedro
28/1 Call Me Ginger, 28/1 Documenting, 28/1 Rhoscolyn
33/1 Darkness, 33/1 Galiac, 33/1 Juan Les Pins
33/1 Spirit Of Light, Toimy Son, 50/1 Dawn Of Liberation
50/1 Sluzewiec, 100/1 Taskheer


This is the one race this week
I would like to get right the most
Feel I've improved race statistics
But this is quite a draw bias race

So can not take a view

Until we know draw and ground
And the full declarations as well

KINGDOM COME is favourite

He does fail some angles

KHANJAR a 4yo first time out
One of the sexier horses here
He also fails a couple of angles
Including a generic statistic too

Have to wait for the draw

But some of the safer profiles

MONTASSIB
VAFORTINO
BARADAR
RAINBOW FORE
REBEL TERRITORY
THE GATEKEEPER
AIR TO AIR
PEROTTO

Some of these won't run

Some will be badly drawn

But a high priority handicap
  





Friday

Chester 3.15

Chester Cup

 8/1 Falcon Eight, 10/1 Rajinsky, 11/1 Zoffee
11/1 Metier, 14/1 Tritonic, 14/1 Vino Victrix
16/1 Call My Bluff, 18/1 Euchen Glen, 20/1 Calling The Wind
20/1 Law Of The Sea, 20/1 Aztec Empire, 25/1 Bascule
25/1 Almuhit, 28/1 Emiyn, 40/1 The Grand Visir
33/1 Reshoun, 66/1 Al Zaraqaan

17 Declared

Dermot Weld has the favourite

FALCON EIGHT

Won the 2021 renewal
Finished in 5th last year

As a Dermot Weld 8yo
You won't be surprised
I am not drawn to him

Horses aged 8
Have a 1-53 record 
Going back to 1998

He fails a generic statistic

Go back to 1998
Turf Handicaps
Run over 1m 7f or more
Any time of year
Class 3 and higher
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 112 days
Carrying 8st 8lbs and more
Have a 0-91 record in them
A statistic lasting 24 + years
FALCON EIGHT will fails this 

Ran these through my angles
The race statistics already sent

ZOFFEE was quite interesting
But is too exposed for comfort

Every winner since 2014
Had under 20 career runs
Those with more are 0-54
ZOFFEE has had 32 runs

EMIYN came out quite nicely
But will he stay 2m 2f on soft
When sired by Invincible Spirit

CALL MY BLUFF

He is attracting support

Probably the best fit too

On race and breeding stats

But only had a scan through
Could easily end up anywhere

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