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Today's Best Bet
 
Curragh 4.20

ZILEO 8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5
  





Final Deliberations  

6 Previews

Mixture of soft and hard races
Nursing some cuts and bruises
After we got beaten yesterday
Going for a recovery an option
But means tacking heavy fields

There are 3 short priced horses
I have put them down as win bets
Knowing none would be staked
But they do all make more appeal
In each way doubles and trebles
If anyone favours that strategy
 
Curragh 1.50  - Navassa Island 5/2 

Leicester 2.58 - Kingdom Of Riches 5/4 

Downpatrick 4.10 -Rule The Wind 15/8

Not going to bother doing that myself 


3 Bigger priced handicap options
I have split staked a couple of them
Which are not suitable for best bets
So it is down to a Curragh Handicap
Hard to be too confident there today

Given how many big field there are
But the best bet is in one of those
For reasons given in the preview


Today's Best Bet

Curragh 4.20

ZILEO 8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


Don't see this as account strength


Could have gone for an easier bet
Even a burglary bet was considered
But rather than mess about with that
Decided to try for a decent winner






Preview Selections

Curragh 1.50 
Navassa Island 5/2 
Win Bet

Windsor 2.35
£6.00 Win Bet Point Louise 8/1 
£4.00 Place Bet Control 6/4
 
Leicester 2.58 
Kingdom Of Riches 5/4 
Win Bet

Downpatrick 4.10
Rule The Wind 15/8
Win Bet

Curragh 4.20
Zileo 8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Leicester 4.28 
£6.00 Win Bet Savrola 5/1-11/2 
£4.00 Win Bet Overactive 6/4







Yesterday's Summary     
 
Depressing message that failed
Official scores L L P L W W L L
We did managed the 2 winners
One that few would have backed
Vocal Studies double our stakes
Just by getting into the 4 placings
Regal Empire was a good winner
But he was not promoted highly
Never made top of the message
Which was not much good really
Perotto made it won as a saver
But the other possible bets failed
Prydwen managed only 5th place
Looked like the last furlong hurt
Most probably ran out of petrol
Tarrabb the account bet had risk
Tough race but expected better
Seen as potentially progressive
She pulled to hard in a big field
Never able to get competitive
Aidan let me down in the finale
Right about the negative in that
But could not profit from our bet
I can argue that on level stakes
Staking £80 at £10 each race
All the returns come to £80.83
Which makes a tiny winning day
But hands up anyone who won
Nobody I suspect and the reality
Was that was a pretty dismal day





    

PROFILES & PREVIEWS    


   

Curragh 1.50

3/1 Navassa Island, 7/2 Letsbefrankaboutit
5/1 She's Quality, 13/2 Clarita, 10/1 Scorchio
12/1 Awesome Spirit Gal, Prime Art, 14/1 Dundrum
14/1 Simplexity, 16/1 Aratayvo, 25/1 Needle Night
33/1 Avatar Jet, 50/1 Aucusn, 50/1 Beano Power
50/1 Secret Jungle, 66/1 Verified, 100/1 Kendall Roy
150/1 Dolce Far Niente.

6f Maiden

Lots of deadwood in this

LETSBEFRANKABOUT IT

Unraced and expensive
Market has him as favourite
But stall 15 when on his debut
Not impossible to overcome
But it is a challenging draw

She faces 2 fillies

NAVASSA ISLAND
SHE'S QUALITY

With far more experience
And getting some allowances

NAVASSA ISLAND my choice
Obvious elephant in the room
Should we go each way 5/2
Possibly but going win only

Selection

NAVASSA ISLAND 5/2

Win Bet






Windsor 2.35

15/8 She's A Novelty, 6/1 Charlie Arthur
7/1 Broad Appeal, 7/1 Control, 8/1 Point Louise
9/1 Breguet Boy, 10/1 Stormingin 14/1 Largo Bay
50/1 Klip Klopp, 66/1 Vision Clear.

Handicap 1m 3f

Amateur Riders

Long history to this

I want a fit horse in this

Every renewal since 2004
Horses absent over 30 days
Have a 0-67 record in this 

CHARLIE ARTHUR fails this
Topweight and 47 days absence
Ran just twice in 11 months now

VISION CLEAR is off too long

STORMININ is 10 years old
He has not ran in 47 days now

BROAD APPEAL 83 days off
Hardly ideal form a 9 year old 
This is mildly interesting

Go back to 1997
August
Class 6 handicaps
Any distance
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent over 59 days
Have a 0-121 record in them
BROAD APPEAL fails this

KLIP KLOPP is underraced
LARGO BAY runs poor figures

SHE'S A NOVELTY is respected
But she's an 8 year old mare now
Ran well on both starts this year
But having just 2 runs since 2021
Makes her look very short of runs
Hardly the safest sire in the field
She may win it but taking her on

BREGUET BOY is a 6 year old
Not ideal he steps up 3.5 furlongs
Has to be a stamina doubt here
Whilst he has won over hurdles
His flat form over 1m 3f + is poor
If you look at his sire Requinto
All his runners beyond 10 furlongs
Have a pretty weak 1-44 record
The only winner that managed it
Made all off a slow pace clung on
Might win but nt shortlisting him

Shortlist

POINT LOUISE has a chance
Stuffed by the draw last time out
Modest enough but they all are

CONTROL is a 4 year old
His age won 4 past renewals
They all had recent runs like him
They all had 13-17 career races
CONTROL a good fit with 15 runs
She is a filly though unlike those
That adds another layer of doubt
As does her draw in stall 2 as well
Go back to the last 23 renewals
Horses drawn 1 and 2 are 0-46

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet POINT LOUISE 8/1

£4.00 Place Bet CONTROL 6/4







Leicester 2.58

11/10 Kingdom Of Riches, 9/4 Cool Dividend
8/1 Dubai Venture,  12/1 Try Line
14/1 Trois Blancs, 20/1 Redhot Whisper
33/1 Tactical Control, 100/1 Balmanzor.

2yo Maiden 7f
 
Could well be a match
Two experienced horses
Both have similar figures

COOL DIVIDEND did fine
When second at Salisbury
But the winner was classier
Nothing looked smart behind
Feel that was a weak maiden

KINGDOM OF RICHES 

Stronger maiden on debut
Coming second at Ascot
Felt he achieved a lot more
And would improve over 7f
Not much in it but on debuts
Picking the bones from both
One achieved more on paper

Selection

KINGDOM OF RICHES 5/4

Win Bet






Downpatrick 4.10

11/8 Gentle And Kind, 7/4 Rule The Wind
6/1 Invictus World, 8/1 Notkeepinyagoing
12/1 Cozone, Zettabyte, 20/1 Josies Dylan
50/1 Righteous Ruane, 100/1 One Of Us Is Lying
100/1 Rust To Riches.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 6f

GENTLE AND KIND a 7yo
Has raced once in his career
That race was over hurdles

July to September
Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f or more
Horses aged 7 or more
Just 1 career start
Coming from a hurdle race
Have a modest 2-87 record
Those on good or softer
An unimpressive 1-67 record
GENTLE AND KIND fails this

Prefer Willie Mullins horse

RULE THE WORLD a 5yo
Has had 3 hurdle runs so far
No star but hasn't done bad
Pitched into big field hurdles
When inexperienced early on
Stable second string last time
Think I'd just prefer his chance

Probably not a direct match
NOTKEEPINYAGOING a 6yo
Needs to improve but could do

ZETTABYTE has experience
Genuine excuses last time out
Does not need to find too much

Could easily split stake this one

RULE THE WORLD to win 13/8
ZETTABYTE to place around 11/10

Would clearly give us some cover

But weak market keeping simple

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
RULE THE WORLD on his debut
Scored a 122 facing a large field 
No others have yet come close 

Selection

RULE THE WORLD 13/8-7/4

Win Bet








Curragh 4.20

11/2 Londonofficecallin, 9/1 Bella Nebula
9/1 Grappa Nonino, 12/1 Master Dunraven
12/1 Nostra Casa, Zileo, 14/1 Walking On Glass
14/1 Weather Alert, 16/1 Fire Coral, Global Export
16/1 Mambo De La Luna, Rauzan, Summer Fly
20/1 Tender Camilla, Wild Dollar, 20/1 Art Of Silence
20/1 Bayou Belle, Brehon Star, Tenth Amendment
25/1 Annecherie, Chilean, Kashi, Tasayad.

Handicap 1m 6f

Obviously very tough

LONDONOFFICECALLIN  
Comes here after a hat trick
Going to look elsewhere
Stall 1 in an unproven draw
Big field it could be an issue
Sire stats are not very safe

Opposing several more

The highest stalls are weak


SUMMER FLY is drawn 23
BELLA NEBULA stall 22

Some fail breeding statistics
BAYOU BELLE one of those
ART OF SILENCE is another
He comes from a sire Marcel
Who has no winners past 9f
TENTH AMENDMENT another

GLOBAL EXPORT is a 5yo
Needed more than 9 days ago
CHILEAN is in the same boat

Some have unfit profiles

WEATHER ALERT clearly one

ANNECHERIE 1 run in 135 days
KASHI has 1 run in 201 days

NOSTRA CASA looks fancied
But give he is a 7 year old
Having 1 run in 105 days
Having 2 runs in 31 months
Brings obvious fitness doubts



MAMBO DE LUNA a filly
Too inexperienced with 3 runs

WILD DOLLAR has a chance
But a 5yo with 78 days break
Would not be the safest option
Longest absence in the race

TENDER CAMILLO is a filly
She's only raced 4 times now

BREHON STAR isn't tempting

Always some you can't rule out

WALKING ON GLASS is one
But a big weighted 8 year old
Not selected neither rejected


Go back to 2001
Every Curragh race
Run over 12f and more
Horses with under 8 runs
Drawn in stall 16 or more
Have a 0-31 record so far
The following horses fail

RAUZAN draw in in stall 19
BELLA NEBULA drawn 22

FIRE COAL is a 40/1 outsider
But not a negative on profile

GRAPPA NONINO is respected
But he's a big weight 4 year old
 
Go back to 2001
Every Curragh race
Run over 12f and more
Not including Amateur races
Horses aged 4
Over 14 career starts
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-55 record in them
GRAPPA NONINO next to try
 
ZILEO is a 5 year old
Has the class and will stay

12 months ago he was rated 89
Lost his form completely in 2022
Been dropping down the weights
 
Last time out he was 5th
  
Londonofficecallin the favourite
Beat him then landing his hat trick


ZILEO was staying on nicely
Had plenty of petrol in the tank
Better off at the weights today
I'd argue better drawn as well
He could well reverse that form

Selection

ZILEO 8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Leicester 4.28

13/8 Overactive, 9/4 Ajyad, 6/1 Savrola
8/1 Cool Party, 10/1 Isle Of Sark
16/1 Chase The Dollar, 16/1 Tigerten.
  
12f Handicap

Could be a split stake race

OVERACTIVE won last time
Weaker race was impressive
He could be the right saver

Two of these horses
Were beaten far too badly
Running only 11 days ago
COOL PARTY one of those
CHASE THE DOLLAR another
Who does not look fit enough
TIGERTEN looks outclassed
Rated 11lbs + lower than others

AJYAD is a 4 year old filly
Has only has 4 career starts
She did win last time out
But has 45 days off the track
And is going up in class here

Two possible horses
To consider in a split stake bet

ISLE OF SARK
SAVROLA

ISLE OF SARK has topweight
This 5yo is running himself fit
Last time on his 4th run this year
He was 40/1 to win in this grade
Didn't really look about to win soon

SAVROLA is a year younger
Entitled to have needed last time
Feel he is the safer choice here

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SAVROLA 5/1-11/2

£4.00 Win Bet OVERACTIVE 6/4

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