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Today's Message  
    
Lost a bit of time yesterday
Clearly up against it timewise
Decided not too push too hard

Newcastle is getting slimmer
With multiple non runners now
Not many races look tempting
Just ended up with 5 previews

A non committal day is sensible 
Not enough contemplation time 
So it is more a practice message





Today's Best bet

 
No Bet Today








Preview Selections 
 
Sandown 1.15
£6.00 Win Bet Mayhem Mya 9/2-5/1
£4.00 Place Bet Gingerbred 5/4-6/4

Clonmel 1.40
Kudasheva 6/4-138
Win Bet

Clonmel 2.50
£5.00 Win Bet Anstand 4/1-9/2
£5.00 Place Bet Warm In Gorey 1/1
 
Clonmel 4.00 
West Breeze 9/4-5/2
Win Bet 
 
Chelmsford 5.30 
£6.00 Win Bet Astro Jakk 6/1 
£4.00 Place Bet Porfin 6/4







Underneath The Message 


Hard to know what to expect

Feel our best hopes come early

Might regress after the first two


Sandown 1.15

£6.00 Win Bet Mayhem Mya 9/2-5/1
£4.00 Place Bet Gingerbred 5/4-6/4

I like this preview 
Feel I am on the right lines
Not sure about the staking
If you can get the 4 places 
Take them even if shorter 
But the underlying truth of it
Only started the race at 9am
It was just a rushed addition 
If I had found the race earlier
May have developed it more
But think I am on the right lines
Before the clock had beaten me



Clonmel 1.40
Kudasheva 6/4-138
Win Bet

One of those Willie Mullins types
Who could be an certainty to win
But who could also bomb out too
Taking the positive view overall
As felt the others were beatable




Feel colder in the other races

I don't trust the later previews






  

Yesterday's Summary
 
Not the returns I was expecting
Satono Chevalier won as a saver
Nothing else looked fancied in it
Staked badly but we broke level
Jean Genie failed in the 1st race
Scrappy small field but despite it
Felt he should have done better
Pleasant Man was the best bet
Frustratingly only finished second
No complaints didn't like the winner
Ran very well bumped into a 4yo
Made the case for an each way bet
Everyone has their own opinions
But for me certain bets around 9/4
Are one of the few untapped areas
That can offer value even if placed
My £60 stake returned me £43.50
Loss of £16.50 but had he won it
It was have been a profit of £81.00
Happy to take a small loss if placed
But each to his own and the main bet
Was a loser as it was a win only bet






PROFILES & PREVIEWS  





Sandown 1.15

11/4 Freddy Robinson, 4/1 Mayhem Mya
9/2 Gingerbred 11/2 Beau Balko, 6/1 Jilaijone
8/1 Flamelco, 14/1 Ray's The One, 20/1 Presuming Ed
20/1 Swinging London, 33/1 Kannapolis
40/1 Ferdinand Star.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

Conditional Jockeys

FREDDY ROBINSON is a 4yo
The Racing Post make a fair case
They think he is a handicap "Blot"

But no 4yo has won this race

If you go back to 2001

No 4yo has won any here
Over any distance in February

JILAJONE is another 4yo

History of this race
Suggests go with older horses

17 renewals since 2001
 
Horses aged 4 are 0-9
Horses aged 5 are 1-34

Horses aged 6 or more
Won 16 of the 17 renewals

Horses with under 5 runs
Struggled and look unsafe
BEAU BALKO one of them

GINGERBRED is a 5yo
Respected with a recent win
Split staking this handicap

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet MAYHEM MYA 9/2-5/1

£4.00 Place Bet GINGERBRED 5/4-6/4







Clonmel 1.40

11/4 Kudasheva, 7/2 Clodders Dream, Feu Du Bresil
9/2 Gorgeous Suspect, 9/1 Ceroc, 12/1 Captains Nephew
20/1 Castle Field Boy, 20/1 No Bodder, 25/1 Black Field
25/1 Conyers Hill, 33/1 Kitsilano, 33/1 Mastermacblack
50/1 Ivoir Borget, 66/1 Skradin,  66/1 Strong Whisper
100/1 Mustmeetthefarrier, Special Protector, Unheralded.

Maiden Hurdle

Willie Mullins trains the market leaders
He has a 4-7 record in this race as well
A couple of these winners were mares
KUDASHEVA his mare looks the safest

Not sold on the others
CLODDERS DREAM has 2 runs
Started 40/1 for Gordon Elliot last time
Don't that as a sign of confidence
CONYERS HILL has no hurdling form
GORGEOUS SUSPECT is a 7yo
Finished 6th in a handicap last time

Mullins may win this

He has to major players

KUDASHEVA

FEU DU BREIL

Would not like to assume
But if you believe the market
FEU DU BREIL is 2nd string
Worries me he is an 8yo too

February
Maiden Hurdles
2m 3f or shorter
Horses aged 8 or more
Under 6 career starts
Running this season
Have a weak 1-131 record
FEU DU BREIL has this profile
Trainer capable of beating that
Have to prefer his other runner
 
KUDASHEVA

Ran well at Navan on her debut 
It was a big field of 23 horses
She was taking on males as well
And was the stables 2nd string
So finishing 3rd was creditable

Beaten 12 lengths at Limerick
But improved her R.Post Rating
She was a 4yo taking on elders
Heavy ground no shame in that

When she won her point to point
She was sold for £370,000.00
She is 33/1 in the mares novice
At the Cheltenham Festival soon

She's a bit raw
She is taking on males
Not the banker I make her sound
But feel she has the most to offer


Selection

KUDASHEVA 7/4-2/1

Win Bet






Clonmel 2.50
 
3/1 Fiery Brown, 5/1 Magic Conqueror
13/2 Warm In Gorey 8/1 Banada Bridge, 8/1 I Sea The Moon
8/1 Mahlers Cove, 12/1 Bavarian Girl, 14/1 Getaway Train
14/1 Nomadic Star, 16/1 Anstand, 16/1 Brownstone
25/1 Flashthelights, Lakomet Of Saints, 40/1 Roguey
50/1 Take A Punt, 66/1 Hollow Spark.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

Open race

Plenty of dead wood

Opposing the favourite

FIERY BROWN is a mare
She's raced just 4 times
Big weight 16 days absence

February
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance 
Any Class
Open to both sexes
Female horses
Under 5 career runs
Running within 32 days
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-56 record in them
FIERY BROWN has this profile

MAGIC CONQUEROR is out
Inexperienced and 105 days off
LAKOMET OF SAINTS is out
Hammmered in both runs this year
I SEA THE MOON a 6yo mare
Has raced once in 476 days now
FASHTHELIGHTS may need further
BANADA BRIDGE looks underraced

ANSTAND has a decent chance 

WARM IN GOREY a positive
There will be unforseeable threats
But wanted to stake it this way

Selection
   
£5.00 Win Bet ANSTAND 4/1-9/2

£5.00 Place Bet WARM IN GOREY 1/1






Clonmel 4.00

7/2 Lovely Reaction, 9/2 West Breeze 6/1 Londonofficecallin
8/1 Doyouthinkso, 9/1 Drumderry Harlem, 12/1 Breagagh
12/1 Battle Of Benburb 14/1 Jaariam, 16/1 Tennessee Titan
16/1 Hi Ski, Touch Of Oscar, 20/1 Doyen Rose, 25/1 Nibbles
33/1 Buzz Light, 33/1 Eclipseofardkilly.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

DOYOUTHINKSO has topweight
Having raced once in 126 days
That run was well beaten in a chase
Not a safe enough profile to select

February
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance 
Any Class
Open to both sexes
Female horses
Under 5 career runs
Running within 32 days
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a 0-56 record in them
LOVELY REACTION fails this

DRUMDERRY HALEM is a mare
With plenty to prove off 108 days
BREAGAGH has 250 days off
BATTLE OF BENBURG 104 days off

Safe profiles think on the ground

WEST BREEZE is one of those

Well clear on last time out figures 
Felt he had the most positives here
Hoping his 7lbs claimer is no problem

Selection

WEST BREEZE 9/4-5/2

Win Bet








Chelmsford 5.30

100/30 Beneficiary, 9/2 Expert Opinion
9/2 Porfin, 5/1 Frisky, 6/1 Bert Kibbler
6/1 Dalby Forest, 10/1 Astro Jakk
20/1 I'm Mable.

5f Handicap

Apprentice riders

The market leaders in this race
Not really convincing narratives

BERT KIBBLER was just 9th of 9
That was his first run in 12 months
Zero evidence of form or fitness

BENEFICIARY a 4yo down  in trip
Lightly raced an average profile
But has just downgraded stables
Sold for just £7k first run for new yard
Don't see that as particularly positive

Despite that both the above horses
Have seen plenty of market support

Going to oppose both of the above
Several have legitimate claims here
EXPERT OPINION despite 44 days off
Comes out similar to a couple of winners

PORFIN has been badly drawn recently
Felt he went off too quickly last time out
Settled on him as a better value option
All his rivals have 20 or more days off
Hoping his short absence helps him

ASTRO JACK makes the staking too
As he is so well handicapped right now

Selection
 
£6.00 Win Bet ASTRO JACK 6/1

£4.00 Place Bet PORFIN 6/4





 
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES    
 
 
Not much to say today

Manchester City won last night

Wasn't aware the price moved
Many may not have got the 4/5

The Premier Leagues market
Has flipped flopped they are 4/6
Expecting them to go on and win


Busy weekend round the corner

One race I will be covering them

Is the handicap hurdle at Ascot

Race statistics below





Ante Post Statistics

Saturday February 18th

Ascot 3.00
  
5/1 Good Risk At All 5/1 Irish Hill 5/1 Zoffany Bay
6/1 West Balboa 8/1 Homme Public10/1 Too Friendly 
10/1 Up For Parol 10/1 Whizz Kid 12/1 Supreme Gift
12/1 Djelo 12/1 Glynn 14/1 Fifty Ball 14/1 Irish Point 
14/1 Mark Of Gold 14/1 Samarrive 16/1 Astromachia
16/1 Impulsive One 16/1 Ivaldi 16/1 Petit Tonnerre
16/1 Kaleb , Mahons Glory 25/1 Riaan 33/1The Pink'n
33/1 Thibault  40/1 Poseidon 50/1 Fautinette    
 
Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f
 
16 Past renewals

29 similar races elsewhere

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 0-33 record in this race
They are 0-51 in similar races 

Horses with over 20 runs
Have a 0-81 record since 2008 

Do not want a poor last run
Horses beaten 20 + lengths
Have a 0-40 record in this race 
With a 0-77 record elsewhere 
 
Horses aged 5
Have a 2-39 record in this race

Both 5yo winners
Came from Graded races
Those that did not were 0-25  

Horses aged 5
Under 12 career starts
Have a 0-28 record in this 
 
Horses aged 5
With 10st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-18 record    
 
Horses from a chase
Have a 0-27 record in this race   
 
Horses rated 121 or less
Have not won this race 
 
Horses with 1 run this year
Have a poor 1-43 record
The following horses fail this 

Horses with over 15 runs
Having over 9 hurdle runs
Absent more than 7 days
Have a 0-52 record in this  

Horses with 5 + runs
Absent more than 42 days
Have a 0-56 record in this 
   
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