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Account bet  


Ascot 5.00

£4.50 Each Way WANEES 20/1

£1.00 Win Bet GHALY 9/1-101
  
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6







Final Deliberations   

The Hunt Cup

The only show in town today


Several other races  

Require guesswork

Given a bit of good fortune
And If we stake them well
Could still be a decent day

Guesses may be educated
But it is still just guesswork



So the Plan today

The Royal Hunt Cup

Thrown the lot at this race
Filleted it down to the bone
No corners have been cut

Things we can not predict
Any draw bias one of those

Very happy with my selection


Ascot 5.00

£4.50 Each Way WANEES 20/1

£1.00 Win Bet GHALY 9/1-101
  
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6


Slight worry that the shortlist
Looks a bit bigger than ideal

More likely to lose than win
More likely to unplace as well

But if the draw is not an issue

And the horse runs his best

You might enjoy what you see

There is no guesswork with him

So lets hope he delivers





Preview Selections
  

Ascot 2.30
£3.00 Each Way Out Of The Stars 10/1-11/1
£2.00 Each Way Flora Of Bermuda 20/1-22/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Ascot 3.05 
£5.00 Win Bet  Adelaise 7/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Yerwanthere 11/10 (1-2-3-4)

Ascot 3.40
Grande Dame 11/2-6/1
Each Way

Ascot 4.20
£7.00 Win Bet Adayar 11/4-3/1
£3.00 Win Bet  Luxembourg  2/1 

Ascot 5.00
£4.50 Each Way Wanees 20/1
£1.00 Win Bet Ghaly 9/1-101
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6

Ascot 5.35
£6.00 Win Bet Peking Opera 11/2
£4.00 Win Bet Gregory 13/8-7/4

Ascot 6.10
£7.00 Win Bet Maximum Impact 13/2-6/1
£1.00 Win Bet Bombay Bazaar 11/1-12/1
£1.00 Win Bet Fusterlandia 33/1
£1.00 Win Bet Supersonic Man 12/1-14/1


  



Generic Statistics

The following horses fail
 
30 Generics
28 losers
2 winners 

Ascot 3.05 - Al Agaila 
Ascot 3.05 - Indian Wish
Ascot 3.05 - Yerwanthere 
Ascot 3.40 - Internationalangel 
Ascot 5.00 - Koy Koy
Ascot 5.00 - Atrium
Ascot 5.00 - Awaal 
Ascot 5.00 - Reach For The Moon 
Ascot 5.00 - Sonny Liston 
Ascot 5.00 - Bless Him 
Ascot 5.00 - Intellogent 
Ascot 5.00 - Point Lynas
Ascot 5.35 - Ndaawi 
Ascot 5.35 - Batemans Bay 
Ascot 5.35 - Sumo Sam
Ascot 5.35 - St Vincents Garden
Ascot 5.35 - Steven Seagull






Yesterday's Summary
 
Top class opening message
We had a sensational start
Triple Time winning at 33/1
That came out a 12/1 winner
Amazing to see him win that
Having pulled hard early on
Both shorter priced bets won
River Tiber won the Coventry
Vauban won the finale easily
Twilight Calls placed at 20/1
Enoug to nick us a few quid
Paddington went and won too
The day's best bet survived
Clearly got the winner wrong
But we did have a place saver
Law Of The Sea rescued us
Only got one race badly wrong
But there were excuses there
Cadillac sweating badly before
Overall outstanding results
If we go days without a winner
We'd probably still be in front





PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
 


Ascot 2.30

4/1 Born To Rock, 9/2 Beautiful Diamond
8/1 Midnight Affair, 9/1 Got To Love A Grey
9/1 Relief Rally, 11/1 Crimson Advocate
11/1 Bundchen, 14/1 Balsam, 14/1 Cynane
20/1 Out Of The Stars, 25/1 Flora Of Bermuda
25/1 Gaiden, Graceful Thunder, 33/1 Juniper Berries
33/1 Lady Pink Rose, Launch, Princess Chizara
33/1 Tiger Belle, 40/1 Bated Moon, Onigiri
50/1 Betties Bay, Hot Front, Thanksbutnothanks
66/1 Geologist, 66/1 Mariamne, 66/1 Tallulabelle
100/1 Callianassa, Cotai Vision. 

Queen Mary Stakes

2yo Fillies (5f)

Looks wide open

BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND is favourite
She won on her debut 14 days go
Expensive and is bred for speed
But her profile is not that strong

The recent returners like her
Have underperformed in this

Horses running within 19 days 
Have a miserable 2-163 record   
Those from Non Pattern races
Have a poor 1-150 record in this   
BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND fails this 
MIDNIGHT AFFAIR also fails this 
As to several outsiders as well 

Go back to 2011
Every Ascot 5f race
No horse has won any race
When drawn 25 or higher

CRIMSON ADVOCATE drawn 28
Would be the first to overcome it
  
BORN TO ROCK might win this
Once raced horses acceptable 
I'd rather have more if possible
Middle draw and average trainer
Don't feel enough  love for her

OUT ON THE STARS tempting
But has the longest absence
No past winner has won this
Absent as long as 70 days

Several foreign raiders 
Complicate things more
 
The Marygate stakes at York
Has been the best trial race
That provided these winners 
2006 2008 2012 and 2018
A fair pointer for this horse 
GOT TO LOVE A GREY 11/1
 
RELIEF RALLY has 2 runs 
Unbeaten and is shortlisted

Whilst not statistically perfect
FLORA OF BERMUDA appeals

Yet to win after 2 career starts
But should have won last time

So unlucky and flying late on
She brings momentum here
Someone paid 340k for her
She could be staying on fast
Could see the pace collapse
 And the race run to suit her

Just don't have a strong view  

Decided to commit to two horses
Who can be criticsed statistically
But who are both decent prices
And we only need one to place
We are being offered 1-2-3-4-5
 
Selection

£3.00 Each Way OUT ON THE STARS 11/1-12/1

£2.00 Each Way FLORA OF BERMUDA 20/1-22/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Ascot 3.05

6/1 Tamarama, 6/1 Yerwanthere, 7/1 Adelaise
8/1 Crystal Caprice, 8/1 Lady Eros, 11/1 Tarrabb
12/1 Indian Wish, 16/1 Discretion, Villanova Queen
18/1 Belhaven, 20/1 Farhh To Shy, 20/1 Mukaddamah
20/1  Roman Mist, 20/1 Zenga, 25/1 Don't Tell Claire
28/1 Divine Light, Love Interest, 50/1 Sly Madam
66/1 Golden Spice.
 
Fillies Handicap 8f

Only 2 past renewals

No trustable race stats 
So we are guessing here

YERWANTHERE looks sexy
But with just 3 career runs
Could be too inexperienced

Against the long absences
Against the oldest horses

DISCRETION is up 2 grades
Maybe too exposed for that

LADY EROS drawn in stall 1
That feels an unnecessary risk

Similar races elsewhere
Suggest we avoid absences
10 of the 11 most similar races
Went to horses who had a run
In the previous 28 days
INDIAN WISH has 7 weeks off
TARRABB has a similar absence
She is going up in distance too

CRYSTAL CAPRINCE us a 4yo
Unsettled about choosing her
Given she has a very high draw
She is also coming down in trip

TAMARAMA has positives too
But another going up 2 grades
Not convinced of her draw either

ADELAISE is a fair compromise
One of 3 Joseph O'Brien horses

Joseph clearly wants to win this
ADELAISE my choice of his three
But she may be the second string
Rather than bet her each way
I'd have go win and place instead
YERWANTHERE is that place bet

Inexperience may cost her a win
But that is debatable so why not
Use her for a place bet instead

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet ADELAISE 7/1

£5.00 Place Bet YERWANTHERE 11/10






Ascot 3.40

15/8 Jumbly, 5/2 Prosperous Voyage
13/2 Grande Dame, 9/1 Rogue Millennium
10/1 Random Harvest, 12/1 Honey Girl
12/1 Potapova, 14/1 Queen Aminatu
25/1 Internationalangel, 40/1 Lightship.
 
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes

Group 2 (8f)

Staying with 4 year olds

Dominant numerically here
Dominant in past renewals
Against these older horses

POTAPOVA
RANDOM HARVEST
INTERNATIONALANGEL 
   
LIGHTSHIP rated too low
 
ROGUE MILLENNIUM is out
She comes from a 10f race
All 16 horses doing that failed

Horses aged 4
Going up in distance
Have a 0-25 record in this
QUEEN AMINATU fails this

HONEY GIFT is unsafe
Sired by Mayson over this far
No winners from this sire
Have won above class 2 
Over a mile or more like today

Shortlist

JUMBLY
PROSPEROUS VOYAGE
GRANDE DAME

PROSPEROUS VOYAGE a 4yo
Offers the highest official rating
Comes from a decent trial race
Like the 2017 2009 2012 winners
But none like her won that trial

JUMBLY has a solid profile
Every chance on the figures
But only 2nd run of the year

GRANDE DAME is first time out 
That would not worry me much
The 2004 winner was so similar
Last seen in Sun Chariot stakes
Not hard to assume she is laid out

Selection
  
GRANDE DAME 11/2-6/1

Each Way








Ascot 4.20
 
2/1 Luxembourg, 9/4 Adayar
7/2 Bay Bridge, My Prospero 20/1 Mostahdaf
100/1 Classic Causeway.

Prince Of Wales's Stakes

6 runners

An outclassed 100/1 shot

Mostahdaf fails a generic
Looking too exposed now
For her 88 day absence
Should be a 4 horse race
 
BAY BRIDGE - 12 runs
ADAYAR - 11 runs
LUXEMBOURG -9 runs
MY PROSPERO - 7 runs
 
Past winners

Had the following races

11 10 8 14 15 15 22 
13 4 15 10 22 8 7 9 
11 15 16 15 15 21 9

19 of the last 21 winners
Had raced at least 8 times

MY PROSPERO has 7 runs
Tiny field so not persuasive
But he does fail that statistic
And another stat worries me

No past winners of this race
Came from 8f that season
No 4yo did from 9f or shorter
MY PROSPERO would be first

He fails a breeding stat too

op

These are not good angles
Because of the smaller field

ADAYAR has every chance
The only one small objection 
He's raced just once this year

LUXEMBOURG has 2 races

BAY BRIDGE also has 2 runs

Despite that

ADAYAR is a classic winner
His best form is on this track

LUXEMBOURG is my saver
Always like this 4 year old
The selection was a toss up

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet ADAYAR 11/4-3/1
 
£3.00 Win Bet  LUXEMBOURG 9/4-2/1 







Ascot 5.00

7/1 Perotto, 10/1 Astro King
10/1 Ghaly 10/1 Reach For The Moon, 12/1 Awaal
12/1 Intellogent, 14/1 Blue For You, Chasing Aphrodite
14/1 Sonny Liston, 16/1 Dunum, 16/1 Jimi Hendrix
20/1 Atrium, 20/1 Bless Him, 20/1 Orbaan
20/1 Tempus, 25/1 Dual Identity, 25/1 Greatgadian
25/1 Koy Koy, 25/1  Point Lynas, 25/1 Wanees
33/1 Aerion Power, Bear Force One, Dawn Of Liberation
33/1 Imperial Fighter, Ouzo, Revich, 40/1 Outbreak
40/1 Positive, 50/1 Isla Kai, 50/1 Light And Dark.

 
Royal Hunt Cup
 
TEMPUS is topweight 
Has a tough rating of 108  

Go back to 1997
Horses rated 106 or more
Have a 0-84 record in this  

TEMPUS fails this statistic

IMPERIAL FIGHTER does

POSITIVE races off 106 

REACH FOR THE MOON does
He has a challenge rated 108
When he also faces 64 days off
He fails the following statistic
 
Go back to 2005
Class 2 Handicaps
Any distance
Any time of year
With over 8 runners
Horses aged 4
Absent more than 43 days
Running off 106 or more
Have a 0-65 record in them
REACH FOR THE MOON fails 

Horses rated 104 or more
Absent more than 25 days
Have a 0-85 record in this 
The following all fail this

AWAAL
INTELLOGENT
 
AWAAL fails generic stats

INTELLOGENT is an 8yo
Too old fails these angles

Royal Ascot Handicaps
Every one since 1997
Horses aged 8 or more
Carrying 9st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-79 record in them
The following all fail this

INTELLOGENT
BLESS HIM

Horses aged 6 or more
Running this season
Beaten over a length last time
Have a 0-151 record in them
The following horses fail this

INTELLOGENT
BLESS HIM 
REVICH
OUZO  
LIGHT AND DARK

CHASING APHRODITE a 4yo
Won last time out 49 days ago
Has some issues to overcome

Horses aged 4
Over 3 career starts
Winning last time out
Absent more than 11 days
Have a 1-62 record in this  
Absent more than 24 days
Have a 0-42 record in this  
CHASING APHRODITE fails

He is also drawn in stall 3
Since the stalls renumbered
Horses drawn 1-2-3 are 0-36

Past renewals show
Horses with under 7 runs
Running within 80 days
Have a 1-101 record in this

CHASING APHRODITE fails
AWAAL has this profile too
 
Horses aged 5 or more
Running within 8 weeks
Beaten 2 or more lengths
On their previous start
Have a 0-173 record
Applying a bit of latitude
Opposing the following 
Based on that statistic

GREATGADIAN 
ISLA KAI
     
PEROTTO fails this as well
Favourite failing a 0-173 stat
 
He is coming from 7f race
Having just 1 run this year

Horses from 7f races
More than 17 career starts
Beaten last time out
Have a 0-62 record since 1997
PEROTTO fails this statistic
Don't like stall 30 much either

   
Horses aged 4
Over 10 career runs
Absent over 39 days
Have a 0-26 record
JIMI HENDRIX fails this
His profile isn't safe  

Go back to 2011
Ascot 8f Handicaps
Any time of year
Any class of race 
Horses aged 4 or more
Under 17 career starts
Drawn 22 or higher
Have a 0-51 record
The following all fail this

KOY KOY
ATRIUM
AWAAL
REACH FOR THE MOON
SONNY LISTON
  
BEAR FORCE ONE is wrong

POINT LYNAS is a 4yo

I can see positives here
Passed many generic stats
But only by a whisker or two
The one that finally got him 
Was based on age and draw

Go back to 2011
Ascot 8f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
Horses under 5 years old
Drawn 25 or higher
Have a 0-83 record in them
POINT LYNAS is drawn 28
So not going to select him 

ASTRO KING is a 6yo
Seems to be well backed 
Finished 2nd last year
Failed a 0-63 angle then
Could not rule him out here
But this is a worrying stat

Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from class 2 or lower
Just 1 or 2 runs this season
Have a 0-76 record in this
ASTRO KING fails this angle

The following also fail this

BLESS HIM
OUZO
POSITIVE
INTELLOGENT

If you go back to 2009
Look at the record of horses
Who in the last 3 months
Had raced 3 or more times
You find a poor 1-128 record
Implication being that others
Have targeted this race better
The following horses fail this

REVICH 
ORBANN
BEAR FORCE ONE 
GREATGADIAN
ISLA KAI
DUAL IDENTITY
POINT LYNAS
ATRIUM
IMPERIAL FIGHTER
OUTBREAK
JIMMY HENDRIX

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a poor 3-214 record

Horses aged 6 or more
Running within 24 days
Have a 0-95 record in this
The following all fail this
ORBAAN
REVICH
LIGHT AND DARK

Since the stalls renumbered
Horses drawn 1-2-3 are 0-36
DAWN OF LIBERATION a 4yo
Just looks too risky in stall 1


Possibles

SONNY LISTON is hard to read
Fails a generic draw statistic
But failed only be the one stall
His profile is like the 1997 winner
Thats a long time ago to be fair
 
AERION POWER an outsider
Looks overpriced around 33/1
You can get 60/1 on Betfair too
I can pick faults at his chance
But top class connections onside
He passes all my generic stats
His figures suggest he can win
Looks very well treated off 95

GHALY
SONNY LISTON 
AERION POWER
WANEES
DUNUM
BLUE FOR YOU

GHALY is interesting
May be a seasonal debutant
But in the last 9 seasons 
Winners of this included horses
With absences of 97 263 206 days
  
DUNUM is a 5 year old
Irish raider in decent form
His figures are progressing
Career best figure last time
Certainly couldn't rule him out

BLUE FOR YOU is a 5yo
Similar profile to Dunum
Will stall 26 be a problem

Worth considering

Hunt Cup since 2011

Horses aged 5 or more

Drawn between 6 and 18

Have a 0-81 record in this
The following horses fail

GHALY 
ASTRO KING
DUNUM

This is more realistic

Go back to 2011 
Ascot 8f Handicaps
Non Apprentice races
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 5 or more 
Drawn between 11and 18
Have a 0-92 record in them
ASTRO KING fails this
DUNUM also fails this



WANEES 20/1
 
Lightly raced 4 year old
 
He can easily win a race off 95

Cost 325k

This time last year

His trainer commented

“He is one of our smartest three-year-olds 
 this year. I hope he will make up into a 
 Group 1 horse this season.”

He won at Sandown April 22

Went to Royal Ascot 2002
Ran an excellent 6th that day
It was a big field 3yo handicap
Failing multiple statistics as well

Went to Goodwood in July
Failed generic statistics there
Happy enough to ignore that run
Badly draw and a weak profile

He was gelded after Goodwood

In his final run of last season
Wins easily at Haydock off 93

That was when a plot was hatched
To win the 2003 Lincoln Handicap
 
He got stuffed by the draw there
Drawn in the widest stall in 22
It was heavy ground that day
He was going well but hampered
And given a very gentle ride back

Last time may have been a prep
Did not do much wrong last time

He is a too smart a horse

Not to be able to win off 95

He is 27th in the weights

Should be rated a lot higher

If he runs close to his best

Then I think we have the winner


Selection

£4.50 Each Way WANEES 20/1

£1.00 Win Bet GHALY 9/1-101
  
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6






Ascot 5.35

7/4 Gregory, 6/1 Circle Of Fire
6/1 Peking Opera 13/2 Chesspiece, 9/1 Saint George
11/1 St Vincents Garden, 12/1 Etna Rosso, 16/1 Hadrianus
25/1 Batemans Bay, Nurburgring, 33/1 Sumo Sam
33/1 Think First, 40/1 Ndaawi, 500/1 Steven Seagull.
 
Queen's Vase
 
3yo Group race 1m 6f

Don't have a strong view

Generic statistics don't help

My best angles don't apply

The worst drawn horses
Are mainly all outsiders
So not wasting time here

GREGORY on the figures
Has a decent edge in this
But he is a shorter price
Going to make him a saver
And have win bet alongside

ST VINCENTS GARDEN
Looks risky drawn in stall 1

CIRCLE OF LIFE is out
Mainly on breeding angles
His sires winners past 10f
All came in Class 4 or lower

HADRIANUS looks held

Horses coming from 14f
Conditioned at the distance
Have a 0-31 record in this
SAINT GEORGE does this
Others may improve past him

ETNA ROSSO has two runs
Winners from pattern races
Like him all had more races

PEKING OPERA has that
He looks one of the threats

CHESSPIECE is an option
But past renewals show us
Horses from handicaps
With under 5 career starts
Have a winless 0-26 record
CHESSPIECE only has 3 

So split staking 

The master trainers

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet PEKING OPERA 11/2

£4.00 Win Bet GREGORY 13/8

 




Ascot 6.10

3/1 Barnwell Boy, 7/2 Johannes Brahms
7/1 Maximum Impact, 9/1 Bombay Bazaar
12/1 Inquisitively, 14/1 Fandom, Sergeant Wilko
14/1 Supersonic Man, 16/1 Alabama, World Of Darcy
25/1 Fusterlandia, 25/1 Ganesha, 25/1  Up The Manor
33/1 Hackman, Mayo Neighs, Muqtahem, Sir Bolton
40/1 Action Point, Hala Emaraaty, 50/1 Big Evs
66/1 Scoops Ahoy, 66/1 Seven Questions
100/1 Lieutenant Rascal, Magnificent Match
100/1 Two Tribes, 150/1 Myconian.
 
Windsor Castle Stakes

Not really a statistical race

None of the horses on figures
Have done enough to win this
Unless they show improvement

Past renewals since 2008
 
Horses dropping from 6f  

Have a 0-69 record since

The following all fail this

ALABAMA
INQUISITIVELY
FANDOM
BARNWELL BOY
JOHANNES BRAMS

This appears our best angle

The market leaders fail too

We know horses from 6f
Are just 0-69 since 2008

But none won before then
On the back of just 1 race
All 24 that tried were beaten

JOHANNES BRAMS fails this
BARNWELL BOY fails this

SERGEANT WILKO is out
Not keen on his 60 day break
WORLD OF DARCY is unsafe
Drawn higher than all winners

Shortlist

BOMBAY BAZAAR
FUSTERLANDIA
MAXIMUM IMPACT
SUPERSONIC MAN
 
SUPERSONIC MAN has 2 runs
Can not rule out on the numbers

BOMBAY BAZAAR has 3 runs
Won at Beverley 11 days ago

FUSTERLANDIA was second
Why is he such a huge price ?
Under a 1 length to find there
And he was favourite that day
May have gone off too quickly

This pair have momentum
1st and 2nd in the same race
Coming here 11 days after it
No surprise if either win this

MAXIMUM IMPACT unbeaten
Has a "laid out" look about him 


Selection 

£7.00 Win Bet MAXIMUM IMPACT 13/2-6/1

£1.00 Win Bet BOMBAY BAZAAR 11/1-12/1

£1.00 Win Bet FUSTERLANDIA 33/1

£1.00 Win Bet SUPERSONIC MAN 12/1-14/1
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