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Final Deliberations   



Apologies for a very late message

Had some major problems this am

Multiple power cuts  

Been sat in the dark for hours !

Prone to them here with high winds
Some lasting just a few seconds
But the last one lasted three hours 

Power came on 10 minutes ago
So rushing it out whilst I am able

Raw unfurnished and not complete 

None of the usual checks and balances

So just have to hope for the best







Preview Selections


Exeter 1.25  
£5.00 Win Bet  No Rematch 9/1-10/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Ginderella 1/1-4/5

Southwell 2.38
£9.00 Win Bet Prince Abu 100/30
£1.00 Win Bet Bobby Shaftoe 8/1-9/1

Southwell 3.38  
£6.00 Win Bet She's Centimental 9/1-10/1 
£4.00 Win Bet Billyjoh 6/4

Southwell 5.15 
Ya Hafhd 5/2-11/4
Each Way








Yesterday's Summary  

More downs the ups yesterday
But the two races I highlighted
Did at least both gave a return
The Bomber Liston was placed
Quite how he did I don't know
It was a miracle he managed it
He never looked likely to place
That was an unexpected bonus
Between Waters came second
Some will ridicule that selection
But it was based on the maths
Two horses pulled miles clear
At that stage at 7/4 each way
Once the place was guaranteed
Meant we were risking far less
To win much more if he won it
Coming to the last ask yourself
Would you have canceled that
Or instead doubled your stake 
Can count ourselves unlucky
Beaten by an unraced hurdler
Habooba won as our saver bet
Split Elevens secured stakes
By landing our place only bet
First 3 previews finished P P P
Very pleased with the staking
Obvious before and afterwards
Cephalus was a major gamble
The jockey interviewed after it
Almost short himself in the foot
Trying to explain his past form
He stopped short of admitting 
The horse had not been trying
But it was not lost on too many
The race looked set up for him
Just pleased we avoided losing
East India Express was beaten
The market got the race right
Many times it's the best tipster
Hecouldbetheone flopped after
So not too much to sing about
Having finished a little behind





PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Exeter 1.25

9/2 Townhill, 11/2 Shuil Ceoil, 6/1 Sindabella
7/1 I Look How I Look, No Rematch, 8/1 Ginderella
11/1 Inchester D'Amsyl, 12/1 Maroochi, Unblinking
12/1 Unspeakable, 16/1 M' Lady May, 20/1 Midnight Glance
25/1 Arthalot, Forrard Away, 33/1 Mr Sociable
33/1 Nathan Walker.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

Amateur Riders

Fierce looking handicap

But there is some deadwood

TOWNHILL is the favourite

He is a 5 year old first time out
Last seen in a Novice Handicap

Go back to 200
December
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f and longer
Horses aged under 6
Coming from any Handicaps
Absent more than 6 months
Have a 0-93 record in them all
TOWNHILL shares this profile

INCHESTER D'AMSYL is a 5yo
If you look at his sires runners
In hurdle races over 2m5f or more
On softer or heavy ground
All 32 that tried were beaten
INCHESTER D'AMSYL fails this

I LOOK HOW I LOOK a 4yo filly
Looks too inexperienced for this
UNBLINKING is 10 years old
Happy to oppose him first time out
ARTHALOT just lacks positives
MIDNIGHT GLANCE is unsafe
Twice pulling up in recent chases
MAROOCHI is an exposed mare
Not progressive modest figures
Ridden by an inexperienced pilot
 
SHUIL CEOIL is a 5 year old

He's raced just once this year
Unseated his rider at the fifth
Given he has only 5 career runs
Jumped 5 hurdles in 9 months
And has 11st 11lbs to carry
Just looks raw and underraced
Maybe wrong but on his profile
Could not justify selecting him

SINDABELLA is a 7yo mare
She has a recent run 9 days ago
Has a chance if avoiding the bounce
But horses with over 15 hurdle runs
Have a 0-38 record in this race
SINDABELLA has has 17 now
And just 1 run in 195 days

Shortlist

GINDERELLA is a 6yo mare
One of the fittest profiles here
Down 3f in distance here
Hard to read but last years winner
Was an older mare doing just that

NO REMATCH is a 9 year old
Complicated profile to consider
But has clear positives in it
And he is well handicapped now
Trainers has a W W record in this
  
Selection 
 
£5.00 Win Bet  NO REMATCH 9/1-10/1
 
£5.00 Place Bet GINDERELLA 1/1







Southwell 2.38

7/2 Easy Equation, 9/2 Gift Of Raaj, 6/1 Cold Henry
6/1  Prince Abu, 7/1 Bobby Shaftoe, 8/1 Mass Consumption
9/1 Caldwell, 10/1 Natacata, 14/1 Billy Bathgate
20/1 Typewritten, 33/1 Queenmambo, 50/1 Chilled Out.

2m Handicap

Horses rated 0-65

CHILLED OUT is topweight
Rejected with 1 run in 131 days 

BILLY BATHGATE is a 7yo
Rejected with 1 run in 132 days

There's been a draw bias here

Go back to 2007
Southwell 2m races
Horses drawn 11 or higher
Have a modest 1-58 record 
Since 2011 they were 0-38 

NATACATA fails drawn in stall 12
Not a safe enough profile anyway

EASY EQUATION is drawn in 11
Combined with 72 days absence

QUEENMAMBO has low figures
TYPEWRITTEN is a 5 year old 
Has 2 bad runs in almost 6 months
Just can not see enough promise 

MASS CONSUMPTION is a 3yo
Will he stay 2m sire by Cotai Glory
Especially with 84 days absence

Horses sired by Cotai Glory
Running over 1m 4f or more
Have a 0-26 record so far

GIFT OF RAAJ is an 8yo
He faces 49 days off the track
Not ideal as he won last time

If you look at his sire Iffraaj
His runners over 1m 7f or more
Absent more than 21 days
Have a modest 1-57 record
One horse did it but a poor record
So will he get this 2 mile distance
With a nasty break on this track

COOL HENRY is a 4yo
Has a similar sire/absence issue
Horses sired by Sixties Icon
Running over 2 miles or more
Absent longer than 39 days
Have a 0-30 record so far
COOL HENRY has 51 days off

December
Handicaps 
Rover 2m or more
Class 6 races
Horses aged 4
More than 7 runs
Absent more than 41 days
Have a 0-15 record in them
COOL HENRY fails this stat

CALDWELL is a 6yo
Gone off the boil recently
Sold for just 2k a bad sign

BOBBY SHAFTOE looks fine
Compared to others in the race
Ran well here from two starts
Hard to know if it's ideal for him
With most/best runs newcastle
 
PRINCE ABU ran 5 days ago
Well beaten but with excuses
Hard to know if he bounces back
When he often starts very slowly
But he has the fittest profile
 
Selection

£9.00 Win Bet PRINCE ABU 9/2-4/1

£1.00 Win Bet BOBBY SHAFTOE 8/1-9/1







Southwell 3.38
 
5/2 Billyjoh, 6/1 Honour Your Dreams, 6/1 Sassy Belle
7/1 Beauty Choice, 7/1 She's Centimental, 9/1 Heartrate
8/1 Tyke, 10/1 Hougoumont, 14/1 Rooska, 20/1 Captain Vallo
20/1 Speed Dial Baileys, 25/1 Thaki.

6f Handicap
 
Horses rated 0-75

Against the bottomweights
Who may be short of class

SPEED DIAL BAILEYS
CAPTAIN VALLO

ROOSKA is wrong down 2f
THAKI does not offer enough
SASSY BELLE is a 3yo filly
Weak profile with an absence

BEAUTY CHOICE is a 6yo
Fit profile and running well
Main worry would be stall 12

Go back to 2020
Southwell 
6f Handicaps
Under 14 runners
Horses drawn 12
Have a 0-45 record

BEAUTY CHOICE fails this
Must be at least a small negative

HEARTRATE is drawn lowest
Do not see that as a good draw
Combined with 49 days absence
TYKE would not be my first choice
Looks his stable second choice

HOUGOMONT has 120 days off
Might win no statistical problems
Just prefer one or two others more

Suspect a 3yo might take this

BILLYJOH looks a  fair saver bet

HONOUR YOUR DREAMS a 3yo
Has positives and enough ability

SHE'S CENTIMENTAL is a 3yo filly
Topweight coming down in class
With a good recent run behind her

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SHE'S CENTIMENTAL 9/1-10/1

£4.00 Win Bet BILLYJOH 13/8-7/4








Southwell 5.15

6/4 A Gift Of Love, 15/8 Whatawit 4/1 Ya Hafhd
5/1 Dynamiste, 25/1 Little Peter, 25/1 Loddon
50/1 On Cloud, 66/1 Pacific, 100/1 Fast Deal.

3yo Novice 1m 3f

Should involve 4 horses

WHATAWIT is the oldest
Do we want a 5 year old ?

September to December
Novice races for 3 year olds
Any distance
Horses aged 5 or more
Running within 120 days
Return a 0-116 record
WHATAWIT shares this profile

Not many were fancied
So not sure how safe that is
And he has won recently
But he gives 15lbs to the 3yo's
So going to oppose him here

Still have to take a guess here
With the dangers facing absences 
Tempted to split stake the race
But the safer option is each way

Selection

YA HAFHD 5/2

Each Way






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES   




Saturdays Declarations

Coming through this morning

Statistics below

For two other high profile races

1) Tommy Whittle Chase

2) Ascot's Silver Cup 

One or two horses
Are declared in both races

So once we know the decs
Can decided if covering them







Ante Post Statistics
 
Saturday

December 23rd

Haydock 1.30

Tommy Whittle Chase

Famous Bridge 4/1 Git Maker 5/1 Credo 6/1
Cloudy Glen 15/2 Enqarde 8/1 Eleanor Bob 8/1
Peaches And Cream 9/1 Bill Baxter 10/1 Coopers Cross 
12/1 Fortescue 12/1 Burrows Diamond 14/1 Grandads Cottage
16/1 Ashtown Lad 16/1 Dr Kananga 16/1 Anti Bridgie
16/1 Shan Blue 25/1 Bangers And Cash 25/1 
Conkwell Legend 33/1 

3m 1f Handicap Chase

15 past renewals

Since it became a handicap

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a winless 0-51 record  

Last time winner are 1-28
That was a lightweight 6yo

Horses aged 7 or more
Winning last time are 0-18

Horses aged 6
Have an overall 4-25 record
All 4 of the winners since 2014
They all ran 3-5 weeks ago
They had 17 21 25 12 career runs
They had 5 8 14 7 chase runs
 
Go back to 1997
Before it was a handicap
And since it was a handicap
No horse has won this
Having under 5 chase starts
All 25 that tried were beaten

Horses from Novice Handicaps
Won just 1 of the past renewals
That winner very experienced

Winners with 1 run this season
Were all aged either 6-7-8
All had under 16 chases (others 0-21)
All had 11st 9lbs or less

Horses with 11st 10lbs or more
Have won just 2 past renewals
Both were 8 year olds
Both ran 14 days beforehand
Both had 3 + runs that season

No horse has won this
Coming from 3m 4f or further

Horses who came from Newbury
Have a 0-29 record in this race

Horses rated 146 or more
Have not won this race (0-3)
Horses rated 140 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have also yet to win (0-24) 

Every past winner
Ran in the last 46 days

No horse has won this  
Beaten over 40 lengths
On their previous start







Ante Post Statistics
 
Saturday

December 23rd 

Ascot 3.00

Silver Cup 

5/1 Blackjack Magic, 7/1 Victtorino, 8/1 Yeah Man
8/1 Git Maker, 10/1 Hascoeur Clermont, 16/1 Flash Collonges
16/1 Make Me A Believer, 20/1 Angels Breath, 20/1 Larry
25/1 Flegmatik, 33/1 Switch Hitter, 33/1 Bangers And Cash
   
Handicap Chase 3m

Listed race  

Past winners
Had these chase runs
4 13 25 10 6 10 10 3 10 5 5 8
Apart from the 2019 winner
All winners had under 14 chases
Most have under 11 Chase races 

No horse has won this
With over 7 previous runs
In the last 12 months 

All winners since 2003
Ran within the last 6 weeks

Horses aged 10 or more
Have a modest 1-32 record
That winner had 10st 7lbs

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 2-66 record in this
Both ran within 3 weeks
Both from Class A races

Horses from a chase
Over 2m 5f or shorter
Struggled in recent years
Since 2008 they are 0-28

Horses with 1 run that year
Have won several renewals
But were all aged 7 or 8

Horses from Class 2 or lower
Have won this race 4 times
They were all aged 6-7-8
Those 4th or worse last time
Have a winless 0-39 record

No horse has won this
Coming from 3m 3f or more (0-16)

No horse has won this
Coming from a chase
Over 2m 2f or shorter

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