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Today's Best Bet 

Leopardstown 3.20

BOOGIE WOOGIE  4/1

Each Way







  
Final Deliberations  



Pontefract tomorrow

Has just been abandoned
Not much going on Monday
So going to have a day off



2 Nationals today

Munster National 
Durham National


Munster National

Not a vintage renewal
Only 12 runners in it

Gordon Elliott trains 8
Not a very healthy sign

Happy with the preview
Has to be a split stake


 
Limerick 4.15

£7.00 Win Bet THE GOFFER 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet MARS HARPER 5/1-11/2 

£1.50 Win Bet FRONTAL ASSAULT 5/1 



7 Previews

2  selections are very similar
Both have just 1 serious rival
Assumptions have to be made
They could easily be combined

Limerick 1.55 - She's A Fine Wine 11/8

Limerick 5.25 - Cool Survivor 7/4 

Each Way Double

Will leave option that up to you
Officially these are just win bets 



Don't see an account bet 

Lots of known unknowns today

My best bet not immune from them


Today's Best Bet 


Leopardstown 3.20

BOOGIE WOOGIE  4/1

Each Way


She has the profile to win
She raced only 9 days ago
If that helps her she wins
If it hurts her she will lose
That's basically the issue







Preview Selections


Limerick 1.55
She's A Fine Wine 6/4
Win Bet

Leopardstown 2.10
Snapraeterea 6/1
Each Way

Limerick 3.05
£9.00 Win Bet Chainofconsequence 100/30
£1.00 Win Bet Halsafar 9/1-10/1

Leopardstown 3.20
Boogie Woogie 4/1
Each Way

Limerick 4.15
£7.00 Win Bet The Goffer 5/1
£1.50 Win Bet Mars Harper 5/1-11/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Frontal Assault 5/1 +

Sedgefield 4.25 
£7.50 Win Bet Tommie Beau 7/1-15/2 
£2.50 Win Bet Jesuitique 11/4 -3/1
 
Limerick 5.25
Cool Survivor 7/4 
Win Bet








Yesterday's Summary  

Ascot dominated message
With two Catterick previews
Catterick was so frustrating
Ludden Lass finished in 2nd
Hope a few followed me in
In betting him 2/1 each way
He really looked the winner 
But ran into a better horse
Glorious Angel ran superbly
Thought she had just won it
But lost a tight photo finish
A photo I thought we's won
Message started quite well
Spycatcher returned stakes
Felt that was staked so well
Bluestocking each way 2nd
Ran great just lost a neck
Beaten by the 22/1 outsider 
Who just got first run on her
Nashwa was disappointing
But more of a message filler
Lattam was the staked bet
He could only finish in 7th
Happy with my draw angles
But there was a track bias
He never really coped well
Front runners had an edge
The 1st 2nd and 4th horses
All very experienced types
With decent draws on side
Had too much for the others
Easy to see with hindsight
Was a who coped best race
We never looked like winning
Ended up with a losing day








PROFILES & PREVIEWS    


Limerick 1.55

11/10 Bestaline, 2/1 She's A Fine Wine, 12/1 Not Before Time
14/1 Mag Dillane, 16/1 Whotookthebiscuit, 25/1 Tropical Image
33/1 La Tene, On The Banks, Shesabreeze, 33/1 Tastyee
50/1 Colline Fleurie, Dream Once More, Erne Star, Mini Getaway
66/1 Catchabird, Five Minutes More, 100/1 Mason Lady
100/1 Out Of The Park.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m

Big field full of deadwood

Looks like a 2 horse match

BESTALINE a 4 year old
Last seen almost a year ago
Running over hurdles them

SHE'S A FINE WINE a 5yo
Who has graded bumper form

Both cost similar amounts
Nobody can be confident here
About which of them is better
But on soft ground a big field
I would rather take the 5yo

My angles have their view  

Go back to 2007
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year

Horses aged 4
Previous hurdle experience
More than 1 career start
Absent over 156 days
Have a 0-39 record in them
BESTALINE is 40th to try

None of these have won yet
So going with the older horse
Which I hope on soft ground
Will be some sort of advantage

Selection

SHE'S A FINE WINE 11/8

Win Bet







Leopardstown 2.10

 5/2 Cairo, 7/2 Honey Girl, 11/2 Power Under Me
11/2  Snapraeterea, 13/2 Bells On Her Toes
9/1 Mutasarref, 16/1 Frazil, 16/1 Keep In Touch
25/1 Fast Tara, 25/1 Flame Of Eire.

Knockaire Stakes

Listed race over 7f

10 Past renewals

CAIRO is the best horse
But he has 148 days off

Past renewals
Show horses with recent runs
Have dominated this race

All 10 previous winners
Ran in the previous 6 weeks

CAIRO also has a penalty
Going to look each way here

HONEY GIRL is an option
But he is not the best age (4)

Race statistics argue
A non 4 year old with a recent race
Wins this far more often than not

HONEY GIRL has this against her
There are some sire doubts as well

Horses sired by Mayson
Running over 8f or more
Are yet to win in Pattern races

SNAPRAETERA is an option

POWER UNDE ME a 5yo
Won the race last year as a 4yo
Main concern about his chance
He's ran just once in 87 days
That could hurt on heavy ground

SNAPRAETERA in the same period
Has been busier and is just preferred

Selection

SNAPRAETERA 6/1

Each Way








Limerick 3.05

7/2 Chainofconsequence, 9/2 Millstream Lady
6/1 Rockbrook, 8/1 Qatar Spirit, 9/1 New Barn Lane
10/1 Cheerful Chap, Halsafari, He's Home Again
12/1 Swelltime, 16/1 Flemansflick, Hazran.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

Horses rated 0-109

SWELLTIME is topweight
Did not do enough last time
When he was only a 66/1 shot
To trust him with topweight

Several others are unsafe
Against the inexperienced

FLEMANSFLICK
HE'S HOME AGAIN

NEW BARN LANE also quite raw
Faces several months absence

QATAR SPIRIT is 9 years old
Having her handicap debut here
Well beaten in maiden hurdles
Just 11 days ago lost 21 lengths
Not convinced she's done enough

CHEERFUL CHAP is a 6 year old
Ran in a chase just 10 days ago
Not drawn to him either on profile
Or from a struggling stable as well
Whose last winner was a year ago
HAZRAN has quite a weak profile

ROCKBROOK is a 6yo
Bottomweight not shown much
Still quite raw with just 5 races
Not expensive just 1 run in months
Do not see enough positives

Shortlisting 3

HALSAFARI is a 10 year old
Exposed and off 133 days
Normally I'd be against him
But after a stable upgrade 
More receptive to his chance

His profile is weak
But handicap mark generous
Plenty of backclass behind him
Feel he could be saver option

MILLSTREAM LADY a 5yo mare
Does offer recent winning form 
Still quite raw won in a small field
Started 16/1 and whilst respected
In the same period she has 1 run
My selection has raced 4 times

CHAINOFCONSEQUENCE a 6yo
Been out and about running well
Felt he had the most positives

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet CHAINOFCONSEQUENCE 100/30

£1.00 Win Bet HALSAFARI 9/1-10/1







Leopardstown 3.20

15/8 Layfayette, 5/2 Sprewell, 11/2 Boogie Woogie
8/1 Self Belief, 10/1 Mashia, 14/1 Hannibal Barca
14/1 Sunchart, 16/1 La Filomena, 20/1 Beechwood.

Trigo Stakes

Listed race 10f

14 Past renewals

Lighter raced horses do best

LAYFAYETTE is a 6 year old
He has had 33 career runs
No past winner had over 24
SUNCHART also fails this

SELF BELIEF is a 4yo
His age are just 1-31 in this
That winner ran 6 days before
Not really sold on 4 year olds
Just 1 run in 94 days a worry
HANNIBAL BARCA also a 4yo
Looks underraced and rejected

LA FILOMENA is off too long

SPREWELL could win
Good enough on official ratings
But racing on very bad ground
With just 1 race in 112 days
And finished last in that race
No 3yo won this with a penalty
Also has that to overcome too

Horses who last time out
Were beaten over 7.5 lengths
Have a 0-40 record in this
The following all fail this stat

SPREWELL
SUNCHART   
SELF BELIEF
MASHIA

BEECHWOOD has a squeak
But inexperienced and 97 days off
And only comes from a maiden

13 of the 12 past winners
Came from Pattern races
Those that did not were 1-49
BEECHWOOD is not a match


3 year olds are best

Won 8 of the last 9 renewals

BOOGIE WOOGIE is a match

Fillies aged 3 score well

Fillies aged 3
Under 12 career runs
Coming from pattern races
Beaten under 7 lengths last time
Have a 5-12 record in this race
Winning 5 of the 14 renewals
 
BOOGIE WOOGIE has this profile

It is not that significant though

The bigger issues

Does her 9 day break help or hurt

We can not known

3 fillies have absences

2 won with 7 day breaks

If it helps her she may win

If it doesn't she may flop

But the only profile I liked

Selection

BOOGIE WOOGIE 4/1

Each Way







Limerick 4.15

5/1 Frontal Assault, 6/1 Mars Harper, 7/1 Run Wild Fred
8/1 A Wave Of The Sea, The Goffer, 9/1 Walk Away
10/1 Gevrey, 12/1 Defi Bleu, Largy Debut, 14/1 Coko Beach
14/1 Real Steel, 16/1 Cavalry Master, 20/1 The Little Yank

Munster National 

3m Handicap Chase

12 runners

Disappointing turn out

COKO BEACH is topweight
Well beaten in last years race
Don't want 8 year olds like him
With absences in these races

Horses rated 145 or more
Have a 0-13 record so far

COKO BEACH runs off 152
RUN WILD FRED rated 149

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 1-78 record since 2007

The only 9yo winner last year
Was unusually lightly raced
I'm against the oldest horses
Unless they are lightly raced

REAL STEEL is a 10 year old
Looks exposed happy to avoid

DEFI BLUE out for this reason

Past winners
Had the following chase runs

8 5 6 9 10 6 7 4 7 13 4 3 12 5 5 5
None had more than 13 chases
  
The last horse with 14 + chases
Way back in 2006 in a small field

Horses with 14 or more chases
Have a 0-56 record in this race

The following horses
May be too exposed over fences

REAL STEEL 25 chases
A WAVE ON THE SEA 24 chases
DEFI BLUE 20 chases
COKO BEACH 19 chases
GEVREY 19 chases
RUN WILD FRED 15 chases

RUN WILD FRED is a 9yo
Tough ask with 12 months off
Higher mark than past winners
And having had 15 chase races
He also fails a breeding statistic

Horses sired by Shantou
Running over 3m or more
Listed and Graded class
Absent over 70 days
Have a modest 1-48 record
That winner was on good ground
RUN WILD FRED is rejected
 
Past winners
Had the following days absences

252 316 10 35 72 224 22 74 
25 64 37 17 25 132 172 170 18

Horses absent over 4 months
Won this race 6 times recently
Having 8 5 6 5 5 6 Chase runs

None with more than 8 chases
Won this with a long absence
Those that tried it were 0-22
The following horses fail this
 
DEFI BLUE  
COKO BEACH  
RUN WILD FRED 
CAVALRY MASTER

THE LITTLE YANK looks wrong
Outclassed and up in distance

Leaves the following

THE GOFFER - 10 chases

FRONTAL ASSAULT - 11 chases

MARS HARPER - 11 chases

LARGE DEBUT - 7 chases

 
MARS HARPER won last time
Has the most recent races
He is a bit exposed with 30 runs
But has positives others don't

Horses with 1 run this season
Running within the last 34 days
Have a worrying 0-25 record
Is it evidence of the bounce ?
The following horses fail this

LARGE DEBUT
FRONTAL ASSAULT

LARGE DEBUT is an 8yo
He has ran once this season
None doing this were 8yo's
None ran within 34 days
He could be on the bounce
And he is coming from 2m 4f
 
FRONTAL ASSAULT is an 8yo
He has ran once this season
None doing this were 8yo's
None ran within 34 days
Could also be on the bounce 

THE GOFFER is a 6yo
Bit exposed for a 6 year old
Plenty of weight to carry
But this is not a big field
The 2014 winner of this
Was a 6yo with more weight
Coming from the same race

Gordon Elliott

Trains 3 of the 4 shortlisted

Trains 8 of the 12 runners

FRONTAL ASSAULT is favourite
Stable jockey has chosen to ride
He looks the Elliot number 1
But he is not my preferred choice
But seems prudent to split stake
Have a win bet and 2 savers too

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet THE GOFFER 5/1

£1.50 Win Bet MARS HARPER 5/1-11/2

£1.50 Win Bet FRONTAL ASSAULT 5/1  






Sedgefield 4.25

7/2 Geryville, 4/1 Jesuitique, 4/1 No Cruise Yet
9/2 Marshalled, 5/1 The Abbey, 7/1 Tommie Beau
12/1 Dee Star.

Durham National

3m 5f Handicap Chase

All 9 Past winners
Were aged 7-8-9
Ran within 7 weeks
Over 2m 7f + last time
   
Every winner aged 7-8-9
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a 0-22 record so far

DEE STAR is a 10 year old
He could only pull up last time

THE ABBEY is a 10 year old
He comes from a flat race
Has not been firing recently

Every past winner 
Had a race within 7 weeks
Seasonal debutants are 0-26

GERRYVILLE an exposed 7yo
Has several months absence

NO CRUISE YET bottomweight
Faces 186 days absence here
Will he stay this far with a break

Passing Glance not a safe sire
No horse that he's sired before
Has won over 3m 1f or more
Without a race within 45 days
  
MARSHALLED

TOMMIE BEAU

JESTIQUE

MARSHALLED has 12st weight
More than any previous winner
Has 55 days off after a victory
Going up a mile in distance too
  
TOMMIE BEAU seems fit and well
HIs sire also bred the 2018 winner  

JESTIQUE is fit and running well
Trainer has won this race 3 times

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet TOMMIE BEAU 7/1-15/2

£2.50 Win Bet JESTIQUE 11/4 -3/1


Limerick 5.25

10/11 Quilixios, 2/1 Cool Survivor
10/1 La Malmason 12/1 Captains Nephew, 14/1 Wee Charlie
16/1 Teescomponentsyess, 20/1 Backintheroom
33/1 Bushmans Pass, 66/1 Soldier Of Honour
100/1 Made In Muckross.

Beginners Chase 2m 3f

QUILIXIOS is the best horse 
Won the 2021 Triumph Hurdle 
Has his chasing debut today 
After an injury and 610 days off

He has about 10lbs in hand
Based on his hurdling form 
But that is a serious absence
After what was a serious injury 

Connections will want to win it
But they will also be cautious
Not to push him too hard today
On heavy with 610 days absence

COOL SURVIVOR may be best
Chase debutant first time out
A similar challenge to Quilixios
May be able to take advantage
If the favourite gets looked after
As you'd expect him to be here

LA MALMASON has a chance
Mare with 1 race this season
That came only 15 days ago
She does look on the bounce


Selection

COOL SURVIVOR 7/4

Win Bet

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