4 Previews 
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Today's Message


Quiet day

It was a poisoned choice  
Ffos Las on heavy ground
Or lower grade sand races
End result is a mix of both

Only 4 previews

Little choice of inspiration

Going to back right off today

Nothing advised officially

Just small stake interest bets
If anyone does want to follow it



Today's Best Bet

None








Preview Selections
 
Wolverhampton 12.45 
£4.00 Each Way City Escape 12/1
£2.00 Win Bet George Ridsdale 9/2-5/1 

Ffos Las 1.30
£6.50 Win Bet Greenrock Abbey 4/1
£3.50 Win Bet Bolsover Bill 7/4

Chelmsford 6.30
£8.00 Win Bet Tahonta 9/2
£2.00 Win Bet  Viewfromthestars 5/1-11/2 
  
Chelmsford 7.30
£7.00 Win Bet Hachert 9/2 
£3.00 Win Bet  Chagall 9/4






Underneath The Message


Not having a bet myself
Don't have a strong view
Which preview is the best






Yesterday's Summary

Managed 2 winners from 4 races
But not the one that we hoped for
The vibes were poor beforehand
Trident Star so weak in the market
Started well and looks promising
Much less of a surprise he faded
When you factored in the big drift
Dyed In The Wool in stark contrast
Was backed significantly 9/1-9/2
The favourite came out in last place
That looked a bit suspicious to me
But at least we benefited from that 
Decent winner one I backed myself
So hope a few followed me in there
To make up for Trident Star's defeat
Other two races were not as strong
Managed one winner and a loser
Results were not too shabby overall
But the winner we wanted most lost 




PROFILES & PREVIEWS     


Wolverhampton 12.45

4/1 Johnny Boom, 11/2 George Ridsdale, 6/1 Giorgio Vasari
6/1 Measured Moments, 13/2 Mcqueen, 9/1 City Escape
9/1  Sun Festival, 10/1 Inexplicable, 14/1 Diamond Jill
20/1 Glint Of An Eye, 25/1 Destinado, 25/1 Eleven Eleven
33/1 Nashy. 

9f Handicap (0-60)

Starting with the draw

Go back to 2019
Wolverhampton 9f races
Horses drawn 13 are 0-36
JOHNNY BOOM is drawn 13
 
Go back to 2012
Wolverhampton 9f races
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn widest in stall 13
Have a winless 0-65 record
JOHNNY BOOM fails this too

Opposing the bottomweights
On the grounds these lack class

NASHY 
DESTINADO

ELEVEN ELEVEN is underaced
GLINT OF AN EYE short of races
Older mare with1 run in 20 months

SUN FESTIVAL 1 run in 194 days

MEASURED MOMENTS a 4yo filly
Has the lowest stall and 9st 6lbs
More weight than fillies like her
won in any early season 9f race

DIAMOND JILL is an older mare
Raced just once in over 2 months
There are fitter classier types in it

INEXPLICABLE is up in distance 
Not a negative not quite enough
As an older horse with an absence
Fewer recent races than some others
 
MCQUEEN is a 4yo with 15 runs
No surprise if he does win this

But similar races in January
Show 4 year olds up in trip
With more than 12 career runs
When absent over 14 days
Have a 0-25 record in them
MCQUEEN just falls down on that

GEORGE RISDALE is shortlistable
But others have been busier than him

CITY ESCAPE is an older 6yo mare
But comes here with a recent race
Several of them and consistent figures

GIORGIO VASARI has similar positives
Fit well and is very much shortlistable
But will stall 11 cause him problems
This is quite an interesting draw stat

Go back to 2016
Wolverhampton 9f races
Horses aged 5 or older
More than 17 career starts
Drawn in stall 11 or higher
Carrying 9st 1lbs or more
Have a worryingly weak 1-111 record
GIORGIO VASARI fails this angle
JOHNNY BOOM fails this too

For this reason
Going with the fit mare

Selection
 
£4.00 Each Way CITY ESCAPE 12/1

£2.00 Win Bet GEORGE RISDALE 9/2-5/1






Ffos Las 1.30

13/8 Bolsover Bill, 3/1 Greenrock Abbey, 5/1 Haldon Hill
6/1 Prime Pretender, 10/1 Dunbar, 10/1 Sabbathical
16/1 Treasure Dillon, 25/1 Rooster Cogburn, 40/1 Timeforadance.

Handicap Chase 2m

Open looking race

Trying to get 3 horses beaten
On the same wobbly statistic

January
2m Handicap Chases
Run in class 4 or lower
Horses from 2m 5f or more
Running within 82 days
Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
Have a 0-23 record in them
The following horses fail this

PRIME PRETENDER
HALDON HILL
DUNBAR

Split staking this race
With two younger horses
Who do not have this disadvantage

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet GREENROCK ABBEY 7/2

£3.00 Win Bet BOLSOLVER BILL 2/1





Chelmsford 6.30

4/1 Delagate The Lady, 9/2 Tahonta, 7/1 Jumira Bridge
15/2 Maybe Tonight, 8/1 Shamshon, 8/1 Viewfromthestars
9/1 Company Minx, 10/1 Iesha, 14/1 Oxygen Thief
14/1 Vienna Poppy, 16/1 Privilege, 25/1 Cazeva Princess
50/1 Billiebrookedit, 100/1 Threeways Bruce.

Classified Stakes race (6f)

Horses aged 4 or older

January have 26 of these races

Just following angles from those

All 26 winners
Had at least 7 career starts
Those that did not were 0-20

OXYGEN THIEF only has 4 runs
He has a long absence as well
Not something that has helped

Similar races with 6 + runners
Show horses absence 40+ days
Have a 0-36 record in them all

VIENNA POPPY a similar type
Long absence and just 7 runs

MAYBE TONIGHT not unlike them
With just 8 runs and 93 days off

DELEGATE THE LADY is a 7yo mare
She faces a long 299 days absence
No doubt she has the ability to win
But she's  only won in the summer
And she fails this statistic as well

Classified Stakes races
Run over 5f 6f 7f
With more than 5 runners
Any time of the season
Horses aged 7 or more
Both male and females
Absent more than 79 days
Return a 0-112 record so far
Some have won over a mile +
But not have done soft of that
DELEGATE THE LADY fails this

IESHA is a mare up from 5f
Not really a safe enough profile 
Females won 3 of the 26 races
All of them ran within 7 days
Female horses not doing this
Absent more than 7 days are 0-65

IESHA fails this 0-65 statistic
CAZEVA PRINCESS does too
PRIVILEGE fails this as well
VIENNA POPPY does as well

COMPANY MINX has this 0-66 profile
She is a mare with 5 weeks absence
Just 1 run in 89 days is the concern

SHAMSHOM has now turned 12
Too old for me especially up in trip

JUMIRA BRIDGE is 9 years old
Comes here with a run 7 days ago
But beaten over 10 lengths in that
I wanted a better last run from him
He's raced only once in 78 days

Shortlist

TAHONTA

VIEWFROMTHESTARS



Selection

£8.00 Win Bet TAHONTA  9/2

£2.00 Win Bet VIEWFROMTHESTARS 5/1-11/2 








Chelmsford 7.30

11/4 Chagall, 4/1 Fact Or Fable, 5/1 Hachert
8/1 Eagle Path, 10/1 Somedayonedaynever
14/1 Apfelstrudel, 14/1 Plantatree, Sirius White, 
25/1 Kaswarah, 66/1 Tilsworth Jade.

7f Classified Stakes
 
Horses aged 4 or older

January have 25 of these races

Just following angles from those
 
Similar to the earlier 6f race

All 25 winners
Had at least 7 career starts
Those that did not were 0-29
The following all fail this stat

APFELSTRUDEL
SIRIUS WHITE

EAGLE PATH almost fails this
Fillies like her underperform anyway
Fillies absent over 11 days
Have a 0-39 record in them

Fillies with under 18 runs
Have a 0-46 record in them

The following horses fail this

EAGLE PATH
TILSWORTH JADE
PLANTATREE
SOMEDAYONEDAYNEVER

SOMEDAYONEDAYNEVER a filly
Has raced only once in 94 days
Raced only twice in 153 days 
May not be enough to win this

KASWARAH a 39 rated mare
Does not look good enough

FACT OF FABLE is a 6 year old
His 64 day break not a good sign
May not stop him winning this
But prefer a couple of others

CHAGALL is a 7 year old
Running well in his last 4 runs 
After losing his form in Ireland
Obviously had training issues
But has a clear obvious chance

HACHERT also looks solid enough

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet HACHERT 9/2

£3.00 Win Bet CHAGALL 9/4
 
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