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Favourite Bet 
 
Carlisle 2.30

£7.00 Win Bet SCOOPS AHOY 5/1

£3.00 Win Bet MINI MAGNA 9/4-5/2






Final Deliberations


Suddenly arrived at Friday
After a quiet slower week

Working through next week
Duchess is away for 5 days
So a long run of messages
No day off for at least 9 days

Weekend racing this week
Is mainly lower grade races
Just listed class and below 
Sunday only has 3 meetings
Ireland are taking a day off
We will make the best of it
Next bet hopefully tomorrow



Today is rather strange

Afternoon fixtures are lame
Bit more interesting tonight
But not a very significant day

Done just 4 previews

With tomorrow prioritised

I do like this race

Down Royal 5.30  

£4.00 Each Way Turkestan 11/1-12/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Future Proof 12/1-14/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Humanitarian 22/1

Was not sure how to stake it

Tempted by 2 each way bets

Turkestan 11/1-12/1 
Future Proof 12/1-14/1 

Especially getting 5 places
But the returns are modest

Turkestan could be a win bet
Future Proof the place saver
But in end staked it as above

Not bothering with a bet

Save that for the weekend

Liked this bet most



Carlisle 2.30

£7.00 Win Bet Scoops Ahoy 9/2-5/1 

£3.00 Win Bet Mini Magna 9/4-5/2



Betting the fittest horse

Saving on the class horse

Main danger looks negative

Some outsiders could disrupt

But happy with the risk-return 







Preview Selections


Carlisle 2.30
£7.00 Win Bet Scoops Ahoy 5/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Mini Magna 9/4-5/2

Fontwell 4.08
£6.00 Win Bet Our Dylan 6/1-11/2
£4.00 Win Bet Nadim 6/4
 
Wexford 5.55 
£5.00 Win Bet Coole Cherry 11/4-3/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Iriskana 1/1

Down Royal 5.30  
£4.00 Each Way Turkestan 11/1-12/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Future Proof 12/1-14/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Humanitarian 22/1







Yesterday's Summary         
  
Felt we may struggle a bit
Too many difficult previews
Generally that did happen 
Struggled to get much right
But started with a big winner
Nika Pika a good 10/1 price
That did take pressure off
Protected us from the races
That were beating us easily
10/1 winner and a place bet
All we could get from 6 races
Felt it was mainly quite poor
But small stakes all message
Probably was the right strategy





PROFILES & PREVIEWS    
     


Carlisle 2.30

5/2 Bellarchi, 3/1 Mini Magna
5/1 Chat Up Line, 5/1 Scoops Ahoy
6/1 I'm Spartacus, 13/2 Socialise.

5f Nursery

MINI MAGNA rated 83

Faces only a 0-72 class field
Thought he would be favourite

BELLARCHI his market danger
Could end up being favourite
But she is a filly with 7 races
Who has 44 days off the track

Go back to 2007
August + September
5f Nurseries
Any class of race
Fillies with over 4 runs
Absent over 34 days
Have a 0-44 record in them 
BELLARCHI fails this angle

 
5f Nurseries 
Any time of year
Any class of race
Fillies with over 5 runs
Absent over 34 days
Have a 0-37 record in them 
BELLARCHI fails this too

The nature of these races
Mean there are some horses
You can not judge properly
Capable of improvement

But split staking this

Saving on the class horse

Betting the fittest horse

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SCOOPS AHOY 5/1

£3.00 Win Bet MINI MAGNA 9/4-5/2


Fontwell 4.08

6/4 Nadim, 4/1 Fort De L'Ocean
7/1 Hill Station 7/1 Our Dylan, 10/1 Reams Of Love
12/1 Allez Allez Dancer 12/1 Callin Baton Rouge
20/1 African Sun, 20/1Dancing Dani, 100/1 Onnaroll.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 2f

NADIM is topweight

Worries me at this track
When he is only a 4 year old

August and September
Fontwell
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 4
11st4lbs or more
Produce a 0-31 record
NADIM fails this statistic

Harsh to call him a negative
He has won 3 recent hurdles
Fit and running consistently 
But not easy to commit to a 4yo
Giving weight to older horses 

HILL STATION is a 4yo
He's raced once in 3 months
He is 0-24 with poor numbers

FORT DE L'OCEAN is an 8yo
Will he be anywhere near his best ?
He faces 95 days off the track
Raced just twice in 21 months 
Trainers last winner was in 2022

OUR DYLAN offered a little more

Considered him each way at 7/1
But decided to split stake instead
And use the favourite as a saver

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet OUR DYLAN 6/1-11/2

£4.00 Win Bet NADIM 6/4
   







Down Royal 5.30

11/2 Realism, 6/1 Cave Court, 13/2 Doyenna
13/2 Invictus World, 15/2 Wee Charlie, 10/1 Clever Currency
10/1 Mephisto, 12/1 Eighty Eight, 14/1 Future Proof
14/1 Irish Envoy, 14/1 Portville, 16/1 Tullybawn
16/1 Turkestan 20/1 Humanitarian, 20/1 Speed Gang
33/1 Falak.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

14 Past renewals

REALISM is a 4 year old
He faces 114 days break

All 14 previous winners
Ran within the last 47 days
REALISM fails this statistic
Most had 2 + recent races
Unless they were lightly raced

Horses with over 6 career runs
Having under 2 runs in 12 weeks
Have a 0-49 record in this race
The following horses all fail this

REALISM 
FALAK
WEE CHARLIE
DOYENNA
CAVE COURT

Most past winners 
Were aged 4-5-6-7 
With 4-5-6-7 hurdle runs

Horses with under 4 hurdles
Have a 0-24 record in this
The following both fail this

INVICTUS WORLD
IRISH ENVOY
   
Horses from maiden hurdles
Have a 0-34 record in this

June to September
Down Royal 
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged under 6
Coming from maiden hurdles
Have a 0-60 record in this race
The following horses fail this

INVICTUS WORLD
IRISH ENVOY
TULLYBAWN

SPEED GANG is unsafe
Recently downgraded stables
Coming here from a chase
MEPHISTO ran 7 days ago
Beaten 56 lengths is too far

Past 4yo winners
Had 5-6-7 hurdle runs
Had 10st 9lbs or less

REALISM is not a match
EIGHTY EIGHT is not either
PORTVILLE is a 4yo filly
She matches neither requirement

CLEVER CURRENCY is a 6yo
No winner had as much weight
Has a jockey with a poor record
Not ruled out but have doubts

Horses under 9 years old
With more than 9 hurdle runs
Have a 0-53 record in this
The following all fail this

FUTURE PROOF
MEPHISTO
TURKESTAN
CLEVER CURRENCY

CAVE COURT is not ideal
Having raced once in 119 days
But from the market leaders
I would respect him the most
  
HUMANITARIAN is a 7yo
Recent flat form is off putting
But with 6 hurdle races so far
He is in the ideal range to be

FUTURE PROOF is respected
Lacks class and limited stamina
But a recent run and light weight
Jockey has a 0-40 record though

TURKESTAN has 13 hurdle runs
Happy to accept his profile as ok
Maybe running himself fit

Selection

£4.00 Each Way TURKESTAN 11/1-12/1

£1.00 Win Bet FUTURE PROOF 12/1-14/1

£1.00 Win Bet HUMANITARIAN 22/1







Wexford 5.55

5/2 Coole Cherry, Iriskana, 5/1 Lucky Storm
5/1 Silent Approach, 7/1 Coastguard Lady
9/1 Stadium Talk, Workforadime, 25/1 Juniper Hill
50/1 Another Nightmare, 50/1 The Kids Choice
66/1 Mountain Fame, Tullamore Lucy.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 3m

Not many of these races

You want an older the aged 6 +

But none of them look suitable

SILENT APPROACH is an 5yo

She has the most experience
She has the best numbers
But there are significant doubts

Stables last winner July 2022
She has 88 days off the track 
She also comes from a 2m race

Go back to 2007

Mares Maiden Hurdles over 3m

Any time of the season

Horses from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a 5-62 record in them all

Those aged under 6 were 0-35
Those absent over 27 days 0-27 
SILENT APPROACH fails this

COOLE CHERRY does as well
But only does that by a whisker 
Happy to forgive her that issue
Willie Mullins trained the reason
And she started odds on last time

Love the damsires in this

COOLE CHERRY 

She is out of a Rosellier mare

IRISKANA 

She is out of a Monsun mare

LUCKY STORM could also win
Sold enough damsire in Kayf Tara

Two of the greatest damsires
For passing on abundant stamina
Any of these could improve a lot
Stepping up to 3 mile distances

My 1-2-3-4 would be this

1) Coole Cherry
2) Silent Approach
3) Iriskana
4) Lucky Storm
 
Going to split stake this

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet COOLE CHERRY 3/1

£5.00 Place Bet IRISKANA 1/1

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