7 Previews 
0 Account bet




  
No Bet Today


Favourite Bet (s)

Catterick 2.40
O G Beachwear 10/11-1/1
Win Bet
 
Leicester 2.50
£8.00 Win Anonymous Guest 8/1
£2.00 Win Line Sheet 7/2

Laytown 5.45 
£8.50 Win Bet Muhalhel 7/2-4/1 
£1.50 Win Bet General Idea 7/1







Final Deliberations  
 
Rain has finally come
Not before time either

 

First message this week
St Leger at the weekend
Will cover that tomorrow
In Future Betting Angles

Will be very rusty today



7 Previews 

5 at Catterick

It was a mistake to do this
Multiple non runners there
Selections and the staking
Changed in most of these
Now feel it is a real mess 
I liked 3 races best of all





Catterick 2.40
O G Beachwear 1/1-10/11
Win Bet
 
Should be a 2 horse race
His fitness is an advantage



Leicester 2.50

£8.00 Win Anonymous Guest 8/1

£2.00 Win Line Sheet 7/2

Non runners reduce this field
Outsider of the 5 horses left
Have made assumptions here
But feel he is worth a bet at 8/1


Laytown 5.45 

£8.50 Win Bet Muhalhel 9/2

£1.50 Win Bet General Idea 8/1

Lovely to see Laytown race
Strip of beach turned racecourse
Fascinating claimer race tonight
Could have gone each way at 9/2
Probably should but who knows
The staking may be our undoing
But one of my 3 favourite races
 
Non runners are a problem
They are damaging the message

Feel this can only get worse later
But happy with the 3 races above

Do not trust the other 4 previews

Nothing close to a best bet today
As I know I'm rusty and not ready







Preview Selections
 
Catterick 1.30
Let Her Loose 6/4-11/8 
Win Bet
 
Catterick 2.05
£5.00 Win Bet Galileo Glass 7/2-4/1
£5.00 Place Bet Mutanaaseq 1/1

Catterick 2.40
O G Beachwear 1/1
Win Bet

Leicester 2.50
£8.00 Win Anonymous Guest 8/1
£2.00 Win Line Sheet 7/2

Catterick 3.10
£8.00 Win Bet Wade's Magic 7/2
£2.00 Win Bet Langholm 7/2 

Catterick 3.40
£5.00 Win Bet Jamil 3/1
£5.00 Place Bet The Dancing Poet 4/5

Laytown 5.45 
£8.50 Win Bet Muhalhel 7/2-4/1 
£1.50 Win Bet General Idea 7/1






Yesterday's Summary

Latest message was Sunday
Highlighted 2 of 9 selections
Watch My Tracer each way
Finishing 3rd he was a loser
Original plan was a split stake
Saving on the winner as well
But a non runner damaged it
Meant the prices were shorter
Could have still gone with this
I decided to change strategy
It turned out to be a mistake
Booyea was a 40/1 outsider
No surprises that she failed
Ran better than 12th suggest
But ultimately lacked the class 
Looking at the entire message
Found 2 winners and a place
Not enough to to make a profit
Estimated staking £10 a race
Staked £90 returns about £77
It improves to £85 taking S.P
But overall a small losing day
Impacted more by the 2 races
I felt looked best were losers

 


     
PROFILES & PREVIEWS     



Catterick 1.30

11/10 Let Her Loose, 9/2 Captain Haddock
5/1 Gift Of Raaj, 5/1 Sameem, 9/1 Lochnaver.

Handicap 1m 6f

Small field
 
LET HER LOOSE is a mare
She brings the highest rating

Rated 76  
Faces a 0-67

Looks to have a class edge
She was the only horse in this
That I could have selected

Class profile 
One of the fittest profiles 
No other horse convinced

On the downside

Small tactical field
She is weak in the market

She has not run over 1m 6f
You can argue on soft ground
It could be a risk to her chance
Maybe that's why she is weak 

Little surprised she is 11/8  
Would have made her 10/11
Need care with these issues
Would not say a strong bet
Others may know a lot more 
But she looks the one to me

Selection

LET HER LOOSE 5/4-11/8

Win Bet







 
Catterick 2.05

9/2 Galileo Glass, 5/1 Mutanaaseq 6/1 Liberty Breeze
7/1 Hot Scoop, 10/1 Saisons D'Or, 11/1 Without Delay
12/1 Miss Calculation,12/1  Obee Jo, 12/1 Ravenglass
12/1 Round The Island, 14/1 Magical Effect
16/1 Revoquable, 20/1 Secret Daay
33/1 Frog And Toad.

7f Handicap
 
Catterick has 29 similar races
Run at this time of the season

Older horses have struggled
High weights underperform 
Long absences are an issue

All 29 winners had last raced
Within the previous 54 days
FROG AND TOAD fails this 

None aged 6 or more
Won absent over 4 weeks
ROUND THE ISLAND fails

MISS CALCULATION a filly
Looks unsafe off 126 days

Horses aged 6 or more
Can and do win these races
But those with 9st 1lbs or more
Have a 0-41 record in them
The following horses fail this

MUTANAASEQ
OBEE JO
 
Against the highest draws 
RAVENGLASS drawn 14/14
SECRET DAAY drawn badly

MAGICAL EFFECT is too old 
WITHOUT A DELAY is a filly
She's never ran on soft ground
REVOQUABLE is bottomweight
Not convinced  he has the class
Recently downgraded stables

HOT SCOOP is a 5 year old
Does not have much class
Never won beyond August
Softer ground record is weak
Stall 1 could be a problem too
Too many factors against him

Catterick 
7f handicaps 
Run this year
With 10 + runners
Every winner of them
Were drawn in stalls 5-12

In the last couple of years
Horses drawn 1-2 are 0-42
HOT SCOOP is drawn in 1 

LIBERTY BREEZE a mare
Ticks several important boxes
But not when it comes to soft
She is not yet proven on this
And hardly rich in backclass
 
GALILEO GLASS a 4yo
Comes her winning last time
Going to make him selection
But would rather split stake
MUTANAASEQ a place bet
 
Selection

£5.00 Win Bet GALILEO GLASS 7/2-4/1

£5.00 Place Bet MUTANAASEQ 1/1







Catterick 2.40

5/6 Della, 11/10 O G Beachwear
25/1 Chattel Village, 33/1 The Spinmeister.

3yo Novice 6f

Looks a match

Between two fillies

DELLA is one of these
Has 132 days absence
Hardly a sire I could trust
On soft ground off that long

OG BEACHWEAR in contrast
Has 4 races since Della last ran
She has the clear fitter profile 
She is also rated 5lbs higher
And more proven on the ground
Could be tactical and not clear
Who is the superior of the pair
But only one profile is acceptable

Selection

OG BEACHWEAR 1/1

Win Bet







Leicester 2.50

9/4 Mullins Beach, 7/2 Autumn Rose
7/2 Line Sheet 8/1 Red Chatan
14/1 Anonymous Guest.

7f Nursery

Complicated small field

Decided to go with class

Split staking the high weights

LINE SHEET is a saver
Badly draw at Chester last time
That was a better race than this

ANONYMOUS GUEST

Well beaten last time out
But in a much stronger race
If you watch the video of it
He was bumped very early
Forced to race in last place
In the last couple of furlongs
Never ridden coasted home
Jockey knew he couldn't win
So gave him an easy time

Ran outsider

Making a lot of assumptions

But like this bet most of all

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet ANONYMOUS GUEST 8/1

£2.00 Win Bet LINE SHEET 7/2







Catterick 3.10

7/2 Havana Rum, 4/1 Langholm
9/2 Wade's Magic  8/1 Gunnerside, 
12/1 South Dakota Sioux
14/1 Redrosezorro, 16/1 Guest List

 
6f Handicap

15 similar races here

Ideally you want a 4-5-6-7yo
Who has ran within 3 weeks

3 year olds underperform

HAVANA RUM a 3yo
Has raced once in 61 days

SOUTH DAKOTA SIOUX a 3yo
Has not raced in a month now
GUEST LIST has a chance
She is a low rated 4yo filly
Might nick it but limited class
 
REDROSEZORRO is a 9yo
No winners older than 7 won
But he has good form here
Been heavily backed to win
As the ground has come right 
I do fear him but he is a 9yo
He fails this statistic as well

Go back to 2004
August to November
6f Handicaps
Class 6 races
Non Amateur races
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 18 days
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-52 record in them
REDROSEZORRO fails this 
He only just fails it to be fair
He feels a dangerous floater

LANGHOLM has a chance
He is handicapped to win this
He is on his favourite course
Figures say he is better over 7f
Could still have enough over 6f
Will try and make all drawn 3

GUNNERSIDE has a chance
Never won at this time of year
But his last run seemed better

WADE'S MAGIC should go well
His career record suggests this 
August - September he is 6-26
All other months of the year 0-33
This is his winning time of year
Soft ground will not be an issue

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet WADE'S MAGIC 7/2

£2.00 Win Bet LANGHOLM 7/2


 




Catterick 3.40

7/2 Jamil,9/2 Jamih 9/1 Peripeteia
10/1 Propagation, 10/1 The Dancing Poet
14/1 Defence Treaty 16/1 J C International,
16/1 Tiberio Force 20/1 Wheres The Crumpet
25/1 Capla Quest, 25/1 Kovu.
 
12f Handicap

8 past renewals

Probably is an advantage
To have a recent run in this

6 of the 8 past winners 
Ran in the last 2 weeks
 
WHERES THE CRUMPET 
Hard to like mare off 62 days
 
PERIPETEIA has 85 days off
  
CAPLA QUEST underraced

TIBERO FORCE low figures

J C INTERNATIONAL a 4yo
Lightly raced inexperienced
And beaten heavily last time
 
DEFENCE TREATY drawn 1
Does not offer us enough

KOVU up 4f in trip is unsafe

Older horses down in distance
Beaten easily in recent runs
Have an unimpressive record
Opposing two horses doing it 

JAMIH 
THE DANCING POET

PROPAGATION is a 5yo
Ticks boxes with recent run
But he is going up from 8f
And fails this interesting stat
  
Go back to 2006
12f Handicaps
Non Amateur races
Any class of race
Any time of year

Horses aged 5 or older
With more than 9 races
Coming from 8f or shorter
Running within 17 days
Return a 0-101 record
PROPAGATION fails this
  
JAMIL may be an 8 year old
Looks more solid than most 
But not as an each way bet
Going to split stake win place
With two of the fitter profiles

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet JAMIL 3/1

£5.00 Place Bet THE DANCING POET 4/5








Laytown 5.45

2/1 Yester, 5/1 Clarinbridge, 5/1 General Idea
15/2 Madame Peltier, 10/1 Chummie, 12/1 Kratos
12/1 Muhalhel, 14/1 Cometh The Man, 16/1 Bom De Briga
20/1 Beanie To Sea.

7f Claimer

Open to horses  aged 4 + 
Several have absences
  
11 Past renewals 
All ran in the previous 39 days

CHUMMIE is an older mare
Not been seen in 347 days
Will do well to win drawn high

COMETH THE MAN a 5yo
Faced several months break

MADAME PELTIER top rated
But has not raced in 160 days
Not an easy task for this 6yo

If you go back to 2011

Look at every single race
Run ay Laytown before
Any class
Any distance
Any time of year

No horse aged 7 or more
Won absent more than 39 days 
Only 28 tried it but none won

YESTER would be he first
He is a 7yo with 62 days break
Doesn't have the best draw either

CLARINBRIDGE a 4yo filly
Hard to judge her at the moment
She's not had a run in 57 days
Ran just twice in 9 months now

Shortlisting 2

MULHALHEL is a 5yo
Fitter than most profile
Not the biggest of horses
But better class than most
Had gaps in his training
Not had a fit profile all year
Feel he should be there now

GENERAL IDEA is a 4yo

Easily the best profile here

Horses aged 4
Under 20 runs
Running within a month
Won 7 of the 11 renewals

Ran a remarkable race last time
Started slowly drawn 20 at Cork
May want further but should cope
He has just downgraded stables 
Cautious but on the staking plan

Selection 

£8.50 Win Bet MULHALHEL 7/2-4/1

£1.50 Win Bet GENERAL IDEA 7/1

*******************************************************
*******************************************************