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Today's Message 


Quieter day today


Tomorrow

Message will be 9am
Because of this funeral

Main plan for tomorrow
The Thyestes handicap

Want a bet in that race

The all weather today
Has unusually small fields
Slow ground do not like it
Can't find enough angles
Staying with the jumpers

Only 4 previews

Which do lack imagination 
Not going for any bet today

If I was going to select one
I'd want to change stakes
Make the races a bit safer
Like an each way double
Did not want to do either
Examples given in U.T.M.

Staked poorly yesterday
Want to be right tomorrow
With the Thyestes Chase

Want to peak on 3 days
Thursday Saturday Sunday

Wasting a bet today
On a substandard selection
Would undermine that plan



Today's Best Bet 

None





Preview Selections 

Fairyhouse 2.23
Firm Footings 9/4-5/2
Win Bet

Catterick 2.45 
£5.00 Win Bet Crack Du Ninian 14/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Roccowithlove 10/11-4/5
 
Fairyhouse 2.53
Hauturiere 5/4
Win Bet

Catterick 4.15  
£7.00 Win Bet Misty Mani 9/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Belle Na Bann 5/2





Underneath The Message    

  
Fairyhouse 2.23
Firm Footings 9/4-5/2
Win Bet

Gone with a win bet
If I wanted a stronger bet
I'd have gone each way 5/2
But did not want to do that

The other option

Fairyhouse 2.23 - Firm Footings 9/4-5/2

Fairyhouse 2.53 - Hauturiere 5/4

Each Way Double

The above bet
Does make the most sense




Catterick 2.45 
£5.00 Win Bet Crack Du Ninian 14/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Roccowithlove 10/11-4/5

This is the hardest race
Strange staking it's speculative
Asking a lot to win anything here



 
Fairyhouse 2.53
Hauturiere 5/4
Win Bet

This could be made far safer
Combining it with Firm Footings 
Would increase the safety in it
So would the following strategy

£5 Win Hauturiere 5/4
£5 Place Desert Heather 4/5




Catterick 4.15  
£7.00 Win Bet Misty Mani 9/2 
£3.00 Win Bet Belle Na Bann 5/2

There is a very good case
That having an each way bet 
Would be a safer bet to have

MISTY MANI each way

Could be the better option

But I have gone a different way
As the race is not top priority

The preview selections stand

These are a few alternative ideas

How I may have changed stakes






Yesterday's Summary  

We covered 6 races yesterday
The only winner at Southwell
The meeting I had no time for
Down Royal much less fruitful
Had several second place bets
Two beaten a neck and a head
Which reflected my early view
The staking might decide things
Felt we deserved more returns
KING HALO my best bet failed
Made a fencing mistake 4 out
Burst a blood vessel afterwards
Another mistake then pulled up
Disappointing end to a message
That was part unlucky part poor




PROFILES & PREVIEWS
 


Fairyhouse 2.23

11/10 In Excess, 9/4 Firm Footings, 5/1 Birdie Or Bust
9/1 Coeur D'or, 10/1 Neigh Botha, 16/1 Fiveonefive
16/1 Take My Hand, 20/1 Kelce, 25/1 Newgirlintown
25/1 Walk Out, 33/1 Coolmeen Park, 33/1 Eikonix
100/1 Huckleberry River, Master Breffni, On My Bike
100/1 Small Money.
 
Maiden Hurdle 2m

Looks a match

IN EXCESS - Willie Mullins

FIRM FOOTINGS- Gordon Elliot

The third favourite is unsafe
BIRDIE OR BUST a 5yo mare
Has had just 1 run over hurdles

January 
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Mares aged 5
Under 2 career starts
Have a 0-159 record
BIRDIE OR BUST fails this

Those like her with 1 run
Have a 0-44 record in them
BIRDIE OR BUST fails this

None at bigger prices appeal
Staying with the market leaders

IN EXCESS could easily win
But is the less experienced
Fewer runs
Fewer hurdle runs
And just 1 run this year

FIRM FOOTINGS offers more
Profiles like that score better
But he does come down in trip

No surprise if either win

The percentage bet surely
 
FIRM FOOTINGS each way at 5/2

Hard price to get so going win only

Selection

FIRM FOOTINGS 9/4-5/2

Win Bet







Catterick 2.45

5/2 Bolsover Bill, 3/1 McGarry
11/2 Roccowithlove 8/1 Crack Du Ninian, 9/1 Relkadam
10/1 En Meme Temps 12/1 Where's Hector, 16/1 Dharan
16/1 Dogem By Design, 25/1 Ribeye.

Handicap Chase 2m 3f

Scrappy little race

Lots of known unknowns
Such as the chase debutants

WHERE'S HECTOR 
DOGEM BY DESIGN 
RIBEYE

Against these debutants
DHARAN looks a bit too raw

MCGARRY is clearly fancied
But a 9yo stepping up 3f in distance
Racing just once in 14 months
Does not produce a safe profile
Similar races in January show
All 21 with his profile were beaten

EN MEME TEMPS is a 9yo
Can't rule out but not my choice
With just 1 run since May 2022

BOLSOVER BILL could win
Legitimate chance of a 4 timer 
 
RELKADAM won this last year
He should be very competitive
Recently 25/1 in a far weaker race 
Not convinced he is doing enough

ROCCOWITHLOVE is a 9yo
Won over 3m 1f last time out
Now coming down 6f in trip
Personally suspicious of that
But my angles say no negative
 
CRACK DU NINIAN is topweight
Has some form that could take this

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet CRACK DU NINIAN 14/1

£5.00 Place Bet ROCCOWITHLOVE 10/11






Fairyhouse 2.53

11/8 Hauturiere, 4/1 Emily Roebling
9/2 Desert Heather, 8/1 Crumb Of Comfort
8/1 Kates Hill, 10/1 Broomfield Bijou, 12/1 Tilloughna
16/1 Granos Girl, 20/1 Fortunefavorsdbold
25/1 Fruit Blossom, Glen Na Tara, 33/1 Pirate Bonnie
50/1 Big Ears, 66/1 Littletwinklestar
100/1 Outdoor Mozzy.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f

HAUTURIERE from Willie Mullins
Clearly no worldbeater after 4 runs
But she is gradually improving now
She was a decent 2nd last time out

EMILY ROEBLING just behind her
Had a fitness advantage on her side
But she is a 9 year old mare now
She has 13 previous hurdle races
 
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Any time of year
With over 5 runners
Horses aged 9 or more
More than 6 hurdle starts
Have a 0-24 record in them
EMILY ROEBLING fails this

Would expect Mullins horse
To improve further past her 

KATES HILL back in sixth
Needs abnormal improvement
From a yard with no hurdle wins

DESERT HEATHER a 7yo
Could be a bigger threat 
But she has less experience
Appeals more as a place saver
HAUTURIERE offers the most

Selection

HAUTURIERE 5/4

Win Bet






Catterick 4.15

3/1 Eclairant Le Monde, 100/30 Belle Na Bann
4/1 Misty Mani, 5/1 Dime Store Cowgirl, 8/1 Teasing Georgia
12/1 Licit, 14/1 French Romance, 20/1 Turbulent Power
20/1 Woodford Bridge

Mares' Handicap Hurdle 2m

Similar races in January
Show 4yo's underperform
They are just 1-29 since 2007
That winner in a very small field

Opposing these 4 year olds
ECLAIRANT LE MONDE
FRENCH ROMANCE

ECLAIRANT LE MONDE 

Now a non runner

Bearing in mind this track
A certain level of experience
Would probably be very useful

DIME STORE COWGIL is a 6yo
May come from a top stable
But 3 runs looks worryingly low
TEASING GEORGIA looks unsafe
Short of runs and just 1 in months
WODFORD BRIDGE is not safe
TURBULENT POWER hard to like

LICIT is not a negative
But does not quite offer enough

There is an ideal type

Catterick mares handicaps
Run over any distance
Any class and time of year
All conform to the same profile

Horses aged 5-6-7-8
At least 6 lifetime starts
At least 5 hurdle starts
Running within 8 weeks
At least 2 runs that season
Beaten under 10 lengths last time

One horse passes this

BELLE NA BAAN

She gets on the shortlist
But she is far from rock solid
Jockeys never had a winner
She's  ran just once since October
And rated just 83 she is modest

MISTY MANI is a positive
She is close to the best profile

Split staking this

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet MISTY MANI 9/2

£3.00 Win Bet BELLE NA BAAN 5/2

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