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Sandown 12.30

MAMOON STAR 6/1-13/2 

Each Way




    

Final Deliberations 
  
Been a real slog this morning

Found it difficult to be decisive

6 Previews 
3 Sandown
3 Naas

Sandown is one of those tracks
I rarely find anything significant 
Don't enjoy previewing the races
No idea how we will get on there

Naas suits angles so much better
But they have a very difficult card
Struggling for one stand out horse 
Certainly none I wanted to stake


Naas 12.50

HYPOTENUS 9/4-2/1

Win Bet

Was expected to be favourite
But a fancied "Talking horse"  
Has taken his market position
There are unprovable reasons
Why staying with his experience
Might be the sensible strategy
But hard to know before the race
Could bet him each way at 9/4
But just decided to go win only

The other race I would highlight
Much harder but is a bit clearer
Just favour this bet of the pair

 
Sandown 12.30

MAMOON STAR 6/1-13/2

Each Way


Don't often advise trip jumpers
But he is bred to appreciate it
Pedigree stacked with stamina
There are few negatives too
So making him my preference



Not an enjoyable message

Hope results prove otherwise







Preview Selections

Naas 11.40
£6.00 Win Bet Jenny Flex 13/2-6/1
£4.00 Place Bet Hardwired 7/4

Sandown 12.30
Mamoon Star 13/2
Each Way

Naas 12.50
Hypotenus 9/4-2/1
Win Bet

Naas 2.00
Firm Footings  5/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Sandown 2.50 
£5.00 Win Bet Legendary Day 3/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Arqoob 4/5
 
Sandown 3.25
£7.00 Win Bet Court Master 6/1-7/1
£3.00 Win Bet Good Boy Bobby 5/2







Yesterday's Summary     
 
Got off to a poor start yesterday
We started to recover very nicely
But crashed and burned at the end

My personal bet was very painful
Had no doubts it was worth a bet
Eulace Peacock each way at 2/1
He had the race won out in front
But his jockey was just dossing
Did not get the job done in the end
Got done by a 33/1 unraced horse
Should have won that race easily

Then spurs scored after 4 minutes
Knew it could be quite a long day
Cosmic Outlaw the first bet failed
Late replacement bet I didn't want
Pavlik withdrew it forced our hand  
Massini Man then unseated rider
Had every chance 2 fences out
He might well have won that race
At this stage a concerning opening

Magic Tricks won settled the nerves
Decent price and a needed winner
Things then started to improve 
Wolves scored in the 91st minute
Which rescued the bet from defeat
Certainly Red then finished place
Not once did he look like winning
Didn't deserve it but got his place
Wolves then scored a late winner
Losing 1-0 after 89 stressful mins
Scored in the 91st + 97th minute
Landed us another football winner
After looking like a certain loser

Things were really going our way
Percussion placed each way next
Ran fine without impressing much
I was a bit relieved he got placed
At one stage he looked in trouble
Going to the last two main races
We were ahead with momentum  

The staked bet changed all that
Great Snow was heavily backed
There were just no hiding places 
Win bet and saver and I'd argue
The front runners did too much
Slowest time on the card a clue
Saver ran well but only second
Maybe wrong but the early pace
Was tough and several cracked
Great Snow was one to suffer

The last preview at Chelmsford
Found so late was embarrassing
Watching the race took the view
It was a slowly run tactical race
Unleash Hell set a modest pace
And a sprint finish didn't suit him
Happy to be proved wrong here
Aware the final 2 losing previews
I have used tactics as my excuse
Could be wrong that's how I saw it
Those two races killed any hope
That we could have a decent day





PROFILES & PREVIEWS  


 
Naas 11.40

7/2 Midnight It Is, 5/1 Ardera Ru
6/1 Carrolls Cottage, 13/2 Battle Of Mirbat
8/1 Hardwired, Jenny Flex, 9/1 Wellington Hill
10/1 Glenmalure Lodge, 12/1 Another Million
14/1 Magnium, 16/1 Pearlofflorida
20/1 Chosen Diamond.

Novice Handicap Chase 2m 4f

Well out of my comfort zone

Many past winners of this race
Had raced twice or more recently

ARDERA RU has raced once

Horses with over 19 lifetime runs
With under 4 runs that season
Have a 0-38 record in this race
The following horses all fail this

ARDERA RU
CARROLLS COTTAGE

Horses absent over 6 weeks
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-23 record in this race
Weight and absence a toxic mix
The following horses fail this

WELLINGTON HILL
MAGNIUM
ANOTHER MILLION

ANOTHER MILLION a 6yo
Come from an unproven trainer
His runners absent over 67 days
Have a 0-58 record so far
Given he has 209 days off
Have to question if he is fit

CHOSEN DIAMOND a 7yo
Resistible with an absence
PEARLOFFLORIDA a mare
Not safe on her chase debut

GLEMNALURE LODGE is out
As an exposed 9 year old mare

MIDNIGHT IT IS a 7yo
Comes from a 2m chase
Can not match him to a winner

GLEMNALURE LODGE is out
As an exposed 9 year old mare
 
BATTLE OF MIRBAT is a 6yo
Plenty of 6 year olds win these
None though with over 8 chases
He's already had 10 chase runs
And has topweight of 12st too

HARDWIRED has a chance
Won last time a bit exposed
To follow up with 32 days off

JENNY FLEX has a chance
A mare well beat last time
Can excuse that on heavy
Previously been improving 

Going to split stake win-place

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet JENNY FLEX 13/2-7/1

£4.00 Place Bet HARDWIRED 7/4







Sandown 12.30

3/1 Individualiste, 7/2 Kansas Du Berlais
5/1 Corey's Courage, Issam, 7/1 Mamoon Star
7/1 Operation Manna, 9/1 Branson Missouri
25/1 Time To Tinker.
 
Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f
 
Conditional Jockeys

ISSAM has topweight 
Not sure we want a 5yo
With topweight first time out

Go back to 2006
Sandown
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 1f and more
Class 4 and higher
Horses under 7 years old
Absent more than 84 days
Carrying 11st 5lbs or more
Return a 0-23 record in them
ISSAM fails this statistic

Past renewals show
Carrying 11st 9lbs or more
Have a 0-16 record in this race
The following horses fail this

ISSAM
COREY'S COURAGE
TIME TO TINKER
 
Go back to 2006
Sandown
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Absent over 42 days
Have a 1-46 record
Those withn over 4 runs
Have a 0-26 record in them
KANSAS DU BERLAI fails
Happy to avoid 4 year olds
  
Horses with over 16 runs
Having their seasonal debut
Have a 0-23 record in this
BRANSON MISSOURI fails this
A7yo mare with 309 days off

OPERATION MANNA is a 7yo
No strong objectives on profile
Hasa 10lbs claimer riding him
Jockey has never ridden here

INDIVIDUALISTE is a 5yo
Paul Nicholls could easily win

MAMOON STAR just preferred

So much stamina in his pedigree
Sire won a 2m Group race on flat
Damsire won the St Leger stakes
Not difficult to argue in his case
He has been running over trips
That may have been too short
This is 4f more than he's tried
On pedigree surely he needs it
Open race he is my first choice

Selection

MAMOON STAR 13/2

Each Way









Naas 12.50

7/4 Hypotenus, 9/4 Mayor's Walk
3/1 Golden Joy, 8/1 Smooth Tom
10/1 Pastorale, 14/1 Morning Soldier
 
Novice Hurdle 2m 

4 Year olds

MAJOR'S WALK is a mare
She's raced just once so far
On bad ground not 1st choice

SMOOTH TOM is flat bred
 
GOLDEN JOY

Has a big reputation

Looks quite significant
He is the market leader
Against proven Hypotentus
Trainer says he is smart

Sees him as graded class 
May just have 1 danger

Just some niggling doubts
He was only a 37/1 chance
When making his debut

And whilst he still won
The sales price was cheap
 
Never convinced sales prices
Can be trusted when reported
But they so he has sold twice
For just 8,000 and 12000 euros
Seems very cheap and a worry

HYPOTENUS

Has placed in a Graded hurdle

Comes here after an easy win

Has upgraded stables as well

And cost 200,000 euros

If the talking horse wins

So be it but on evidence

Staying with experience

Selection

HYPOTENUS 9/4-2/1

Win Bet







Naas 2.00

13/2 Ballybawn Belter, 8/1 Firm Footings 
9/1 Gaoth Chuil, 10/1 Amir Kabir, Common Practice
10/1 Espanito Bello, 10/1 Rebel Gold, 12/1 Cozone
12/1 Jazzy Matty, Lord Erskine, Summerville Boy
12/1 Thecompanysergeant, 14/1 Must Meet Cecil
16/1 The Lovely Man, 20/1 Ballywilliam Boy
20/1 West Is Awake, Kilbree Warrior,Chinx Of Light
25/1 Drop The Anchor.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Listed Class 

Smart handicap hurdle

The history of this race

Shows all the past winners
Came from this weight range

10st 4lbs to 11st 2lbs

Horses with 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-24 record in this race

SUPPERVILLE BOY topweight
May have too much weight 
Give several months absence

Lightweights have struggled
Horses with 10st 3lbs or less
Have a 0-46 record in this
Raises doubts about these

GAOTH CHUIL fails this
She is one we could forgive
But because she is a mare 
Decided not to shortlist her

REBEL GOLD is a lightweight  
Not ideal a 10yo with a break

COZONE fails as a lightweight
KILBREE WARRIOR does too

LORD ESKINE the wrong type
He has been too busy recently

MUST MEET CECIL has 10st
From the wrong part of weights
He comes here on a hat trick
But he is going up in the weights
And takes a big step up in class
And has to go up 4f in distance

THE LOVELY MAN a lightweight
Would not interest me as a 4yo
JAZZY MATTY likewise as a 4yo
Who has not had a race this year
WEST IS AWAKE has bottomweight
In a race lightweights have not won

BALLYWILLIAM BOY is an 8yo
Happy to avoid with 645 days off
CHINK OF LIGHT is underraced
DROP THE ANCHOR is unsafe

COMMON PRACTICE is a 4yo
None have won this race before
This is an interesting statistic

Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded class
Run over 2m 3f and more
Any time of the season
Horses aged 4
More than 6 career runs
Absent over 5 days
Have a 0-48 record in them
COMMON PRACTICE fails this

Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded class
Run over 2m 3f and more
Any time of the season
Horses aged 9 or more
More than 9 career runs
Absent more than 82 days
Have a poor 1-139 record
The following all fail this

SUPPERVILLE BOY
ESPANITO BELLO
REBEL GOLD

AMIR KABIR has 57 days off
Not proven on sire statistics 
He misses out on the shortlist

Shortlist

FIRM FOOTINGS
BALLYBAWN BELTER
THECOMPANYSERGEANT

 
THECOMPANYSERGEANT a 6yo
Has to step up half a mile in trip
Recently twice downgraded stables
That makes things more confusing
This may or may not be relevant

Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded class
Run over 2m 4f and more
Any time of the year 
Male horses 
Aged 5 or more
Coming from 2m hurdles
More than 7 career starts
Fewer than 8 hurdle runs
Absent more than 32 days
Return a 0-41 profile
Two horses fail this profile
THECOMPANYSERGEANT 
KILBREE WARRIOR
  
BALLYBAWN BELTER is a mare
She aces 58 days absence here
The 2012 winner was very similar
But it is quite a challenging profile

FIRM FOOTINGS a 5yo
Comes here after a victory
Unexposed and lots to like

Little underwhelming at 5/1

But angles against all the others

And there are 5 places available

Selection

FIRM FOOTINGS 5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5








Sandown 2.50

3/1 Legendary Day, 4/1 Iliko D'Olivate
11/2 Arqoob, 8/1 Aurigny Mill, 8/1 Kaleb
10/1 Fourofakind, 10/1 Iontach Cheval
12/1 Galahad Threepwood, Totterdown
14/1 Jupiter Du Gite.

Handicap Hurdle 2m
 
JUPITER DU GITE a 4yo
Has to carry topweight 12st
Not ideal especially first time
 
Go back to 2006
Sandown
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Absent over 42 days
Have a 1-46 record
Those with over 4 runs
Have a 0-26 record in them
The following horses fail this

JUPITER DU GITE
FOUROVAKIND



TOTTERDOWN is a 12yo
Every other horse in the race
Is at least 5 years younger 
IONTACH DHEVAL rejected
Lacks positives long absence
GALAHAD THREEPWOOD
Does not look safe or fancied

AURIGNY MILL 213 days off
Not a trainer I'd trust in this class
   
KALEB has a chance

ILIKO D'OLIVATE a 5yo
Mixes weight and absence
Not an easy task 11st 12lbs
But clearly a smart prospect

LEGENDARY DAY a 5yo
Has been running on the flat 
He has had 3 hurdle races
But the last was months ago 
That raises some doubts
But so do all other profiles

None of these horses
Look safe to commit to

Going win and place bet
Just to spread the risk

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet LEGENDARY DAY 3/1

£5.00 Place Bet ARQOOB 4/5






 
Sandown 3.25

5/2 Good Boy Bobby, 7/2 Larry
4/1 Lord Du Mesnil, 5/1 Court Master
13/2 Cyclop, 12/1 De Rasher Counter
12/1 Elegant Escap
 
Veterans Chase 3m

8 renewals

Nothing significant  

7 runners doesn't help

LORD DU MESNIL topweight
No hurry to bet him with 12st
With several months absence

Horses winning with recent runs
All ran well on their comeback
DE RASHER COUNTER did not

Given the choice
Better off with 10 year olds
Who have had recent runs
Rather than older horses
Who come with absences

COURT MASTER a 10yo
The joint lowest rated horse
Has one of the fittest profiles
He makes the final shortlist

GOOD BOY BOBBY a 10yo
Has a couple of recent races
Going to make him the saver

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet COURT MASTER 6/1

£3.00 Win Bet GOOD BOY BOBBY 5/2

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